Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???

[Furniture]

Gotta look at the game theory for the NDP on this.

If they vote against the budget and the CPC vote against the budget, government falls. NDP’s position is unlikely to improve, a they enter the election leadership and rudderless. and the LPC may return with a majority, locking NDP out completely for four years. Even a best case for NDP is exactly what they have now- an LPC minority that the NDP have enough seats to support on a vote by vote basis.

If NDP vote for the budget, they put their stamp on it. Parliament doesn’t change. They burn arguably a bit more credibility than by opposition or abstention.

If NDP abstain, it still passes, NDP’s situation doesn’t change, but they can more defensively argue that the best thing they can do for their constituents is to hold off until they’re in a better position as a party, and extract LPC concession on future issues/ picking their battle while they rebuild.

All of the options suck for the NDP. Abstention probably sucks the least for them, and lets them try to gather some dry powder into the spring and summer, for another kick at the cat in budget 2026.

The NDP are in their current predicament for all the reasons that were discussed over a year ago. They squandered the perfect opportunity to bring down an unpopular government, with an particularly unpopular leader.

All this trying to play 4D chess has left them losing badly at Snakes and Ladders... Given how badly they squandered their opportunity last year, I fully expect them to do something equally as dumb this year.

 

[Halifax Tar]

The NDP are in their current predicament for all the reasons that were discussed over a year ago. They squandered the perfect opportunity to bring down an unpopular government, with an particularly unpopular leader.

All this trying to play 4D chess has left them losing badly at Snakes and Ladders... Given how badly they squandered their opportunity last year, I fully expect them to do something equally as dumb this year.

I think their political maneuvering of a year ago had a lot to do with the personal gain of their leader at that point.

 

[dapaterson]

The NDP are in their current predicament for all the reasons that were discussed over a year ago. They squandered the perfect opportunity to bring down an unpopular government, with an particularly unpopular leader.

All this trying to play 4D chess has left them losing badly at Snakes and Ladders... Given how badly they squandered their opportunity last year, I fully expect them to do something equally as dumb this year.

Don't try 4D chess when you're challenged to count to three.

 

[YZT580]

But they are in literally no position to benefit if they blew up the government. They can do it, but because they are politically incompetent, I wouldn’t put it past them. But if they did that now on this budget, they will be annihilated. Only the dumbest of the hardest-corest Dippers would want to defeat the government now. Voters do not want the government defeated and polls show the Liberals possibly getting a majority if there is an election.

And if the Tories were smart, they wouldn’t want the NDP to be annihilated because they benefit when the NDP is strong.

Unless the pols are completely stupid, we’re not going to an election.

agreed. just pointing out that there is no good path for the dippers regardless of the budget. Though I guess the same could be said for the other two parties as well. Perhaps the NDP have said it right: everyone abstain

I think their political maneuvering of a year ago had a lot to do with the personal gain of their leader at that point.

agreed but only to a limited extent. Each of them controlled a single vote including Singh. If they couldn't see the writing on the wall and step out against him then each deserves and earned the loss. His control of the vote was only as good as the others' allowed it to be.

 

[MilEME09]

and the budget is here

Budget 2025 goes big on capital spending, deficit projected at $78.3B

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first-ever federal budget focuses on driving economic growth, while projecting a deficit that is billions of dollars bigger than forecast a year ago.

www.ctvnews.ca

When it comes to defence and security, the budget includes $81.8 billion over five years to “rebuild, rearm, and reinvest” in the Canadian military. This includes the $9 billion Carney announced in June when he committed to reach NATO’s target of two per cent of GDP spending this year, and $6.6 billion over five years, to strengthen Canada’s defence industry through the “Defence Industrial Strategy.”

 

[Remius]

and the budget is here

Budget 2025 goes big on capital spending, deficit projected at $78.3B

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first-ever federal budget focuses on driving economic growth, while projecting a deficit that is billions of dollars bigger than forecast a year ago.

www.ctvnews.ca

10% cut to the PS. Around 40K by 28/29. Early retirement incentives.

 

[HavokFour]

Looks like we might see a few floor crossings, by certain CPC members to the LPC. Liberal Majority may be in the cards again.

If d’Entremont crosses the aisle and two additional Conservative MPs join the Liberals, Carney’s majority would be secured. d’Entremont said the Liberals have been courting other Conservatives who view themselves as centrists but wouldn’t disclose who.

“You’d have to ask them,” he said. He also declined to say who was doing the courting and whether or not conversations included the Prime Minister’s Office.

Conservative MP says he’s considering joining Canada’s Liberal government

 

[Remius]

Looks like we might see a few floor crossings, by certain CPC members to the LPC. Liberal Majority may be in the cards again.



Conservative MP says he’s considering joining Canada’s Liberal government

I heard a credible rumour about that. But we’ll see…

There are possibly more.

 

[HavokFour]

I heard a credible rumour about that. But we’ll see…

There are possibly more.

It very much sounds like a warning shot in Poilievre's direction, with the leadership review coming up.

 

[Jarnhamar]

It very much sounds like a warning shot in Poilievre's direction, with the leadership review coming up.

How do you see this as a warning shot?

 

[MilEME09]

I heard a credible rumour about that. But we’ll see…

There are possibly more.

get two floor crossers, and this becomes Elizabeth May's parliment

 

[Czech_pivo]

10% cut to the PS. Around 40K by 28/29. Early retirement incentives.

Not as bad as what was being bantered about.

 

[Remius]

Not as bad as what was being bantered about.

The union was making it sound worse but 40K is not insignificant. That’s on top of what’s been cut this year so far.

 

[brihard]

Looks like we might see a few floor crossings, by certain CPC members to the LPC. Liberal Majority may be in the cards again.



Conservative MP says he’s considering joining Canada’s Liberal government

Absolutely zero chance he’d so much as hint at that publicly unless it was basically a done deal, or the last public step of a nearly complete negotiation. It’s political suicide otherwise.

I’ve got a lot of reading to do but first impression is positive.

The potential elimination of the emissions cap will be a very welcome move.

Not sure the NDP can choke this one down even by abstention. But we’ll see.

More to follow once my reading and brain catch up to details.

 

[Remius]

Absolutely zero chance he’d so much as hint at that publicly unless it was basically a done deal, or the last public step of a nearly complete negotiation. It’s political suicide otherwise.

I’ve got a lot of reading to do but first impression is positive.

The potential elimination of the emissions cap will be a very welcome move.

Not sure the NDP can choke this one down even by abstention. But we’ll see.

More to follow once my reading and brain catch up to details.

Imagine if a few switch and Elizabeth May becomes the HoC kingmaker…lol

 

[Remius]

Absolutely zero chance he’d so much as hint at that publicly unless it was basically a done deal, or the last public step of a nearly complete negotiation. It’s political suicide otherwise.

I’ve got a lot of reading to do but first impression is positive.

The potential elimination of the emissions cap will be a very welcome move.

Not sure the NDP can choke this one down even by abstention. But we’ll see.

More to follow once my reading and brain catch up to details.

Agreed. So far I am liking what I see.

 

[HavokFour]

How do you see this as a warning shot?

Absolutely zero chance he’d so much as hint at that publicly unless it was basically a done deal, or the last public step of a nearly complete negotiation. It’s political suicide otherwise.

The implication that there are more is why I see it and the fact that d’Entremont went public, makes me see this as a warning shot.

 

[Jarnhamar]

I expected the deficit to triple, so I guess just doubling isn't bad by comparison.

Not a lot of short-term immediate service demands or social program expansion. Debt growth too.

Defence and industrial manufacturing will do good. Lots of long term gambles.

 

[Jarnhamar]

The implication that there are more is why I see it and the fact that d’Entremont went public, makes me see this as a warning shot.

Personally I find the practice despicable and selfish. This close to a majority I'm surprised more MPs haven't jumped ship sooner.

 

[brihard]

The implication that there are more is why I see it and the fact that d’Entremont went public, makes me see this as a warning shot.

I think he's visibly propping the door open for others and I think he has reason to believe those others exist. If we saw floor-crossing the LPC into a majority- wow. That's not on my bingo card. It will also absolutely fucking enrage some folks.