Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???

[Furniture]

Gotta look at the game theory for the NDP on this.

If they vote against the budget and the CPC vote against the budget, government falls. NDP’s position is unlikely to improve, a they enter the election leadership and rudderless. and the LPC may return with a majority, locking NDP out completely for four years. Even a best case for NDP is exactly what they have now- an LPC minority that the NDP have enough seats to support on a vote by vote basis.

If NDP vote for the budget, they put their stamp on it. Parliament doesn’t change. They burn arguably a bit more credibility than by opposition or abstention.

If NDP abstain, it still passes, NDP’s situation doesn’t change, but they can more defensively argue that the best thing they can do for their constituents is to hold off until they’re in a better position as a party, and extract LPC concession on future issues/ picking their battle while they rebuild.

All of the options suck for the NDP. Abstention probably sucks the least for them, and lets them try to gather some dry powder into the spring and summer, for another kick at the cat in budget 2026.

The NDP are in their current predicament for all the reasons that were discussed over a year ago. They squandered the perfect opportunity to bring down an unpopular government, with an particularly unpopular leader.

All this trying to play 4D chess has left them losing badly at Snakes and Ladders... Given how badly they squandered their opportunity last year, I fully expect them to do something equally as dumb this year.

 

[Halifax Tar]

The NDP are in their current predicament for all the reasons that were discussed over a year ago. They squandered the perfect opportunity to bring down an unpopular government, with an particularly unpopular leader.

All this trying to play 4D chess has left them losing badly at Snakes and Ladders... Given how badly they squandered their opportunity last year, I fully expect them to do something equally as dumb this year.

I think their political maneuvering of a year ago had a lot to do with the personal gain of their leader at that point.

 

[dapaterson]

The NDP are in their current predicament for all the reasons that were discussed over a year ago. They squandered the perfect opportunity to bring down an unpopular government, with an particularly unpopular leader.

All this trying to play 4D chess has left them losing badly at Snakes and Ladders... Given how badly they squandered their opportunity last year, I fully expect them to do something equally as dumb this year.

Don't try 4D chess when you're challenged to count to three.

 

[YZT580]

But they are in literally no position to benefit if they blew up the government. They can do it, but because they are politically incompetent, I wouldn’t put it past them. But if they did that now on this budget, they will be annihilated. Only the dumbest of the hardest-corest Dippers would want to defeat the government now. Voters do not want the government defeated and polls show the Liberals possibly getting a majority if there is an election.

And if the Tories were smart, they wouldn’t want the NDP to be annihilated because they benefit when the NDP is strong.

Unless the pols are completely stupid, we’re not going to an election.

agreed. just pointing out that there is no good path for the dippers regardless of the budget. Though I guess the same could be said for the other two parties as well. Perhaps the NDP have said it right: everyone abstain

I think their political maneuvering of a year ago had a lot to do with the personal gain of their leader at that point.

agreed but only to a limited extent. Each of them controlled a single vote including Singh. If they couldn't see the writing on the wall and step out against him then each deserves and earned the loss. His control of the vote was only as good as the others' allowed it to be.