Iran Super Thread- Merged

[daftandbarmy]

You were close! 3-5 years to fix the damage that knocked out 17% of their capacity.

And that % is only going to go up the longer this goes on.

Exclusive: Iran attacks wipe out 17% of Qatar’s LNG capacity for up to five years, QatarEnergy CEO says

The attacks ‌caused an estimated $20 billion in lost annual revenue.

www.reuters.com

So far...

 

[ytz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2034430433350615365

Gift link to article:

https://twitter.com/x/status/2034430433350615365

 

[Colin Parkinson]

One possible change of trajectory for Iran is that a military dictatorship replaces, finally, the nominally religious one, overtly casting aside the trappings of theocracy. The mullahs may be abstemious religious scholars intent on preparing/purifying themselves for the afterlife, but almost every other kind of person enjoys some pleasures of the flesh, for which it is necessary to be alive and preferable not to have to keep looking out for killjoy religious enforcers.

That Khamenei's son might have been selected as his father's replacement is a substantial step down in quality, as Khamenei was a (slight) step down from Khomenei. If the IRGC is fed up with or senses weakness in the religious leadership, the IRGC can take all of the power, if they choose.

The regime (how the government is structured and functions) might not really change much, but it's foreign policy might change a lot and reset conditions and terms of negotiations.

I have been of the opinion that the IRGC has been calling the shots for quite awhile and that the Clerics were mostly window dressing. The IRGC went full mafia and took control of most of the economic activities in the country and were more concerned about retaining wealth and power.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

The Iranian response to the Pars strike.

QatarEnergy reports 'extensive damage' after missile attacks on Ras Laffan

Qatar's state oil giant QatarEnergy said ‌on Wednesday that Iranian missile attacks on Ras Laffan, the site of the country's core LNG processing operations, caused "extensive damage."

www.reuters.com

More incentive for Canada to get going on more pipes.

I would have imprisoned them in the country

 

[ytz]

I have been of the opinion that the IRGC has been calling the shots for quite awhile and that the Clerics were mostly window dressing. The IRGC went full mafia and took control of most of the economic activities in the country and were more concerned about retaining wealth and power.

This also makes it really hard to dismantle. It's estimated that something like 50% of Iran's GDP is controlled by the IRCC. They basically run all of the utilities, state owned enterprises and large companies. This means completely eliminating the IRGC is akin to trying to get rid of the CCP in China.

I do think there's layers of complexity here. The Ayatollahs need a loyal mob to keep them in power. And since not everybody is motivated my religion, money is useful to motivate others. It's more likely to be a somewhat symbiotic relationship between the clerical class and the military (IRGC) class.

 

[brihard]

You were close! 3-5 years to fix the damage that knocked out 17% of their capacity.

And that % is only going to go up the longer this goes on.

Exclusive: Iran attacks wipe out 17% of Qatar’s LNG capacity for up to five years, QatarEnergy CEO says

The attacks ‌caused an estimated $20 billion in lost annual revenue.

www.reuters.com

Jesus Christ… Yeah, anyone with the ability to boost LNG capacity in the short term is probably now in a position to go for it hard.

And as you and others say- so far.

 

[Cloud Cover]

Interesting tweet on oil prices as North America oil prices decouple from global.
Of course Eastern Canadian refineries are going to feel the brunt of this.

 

[brihard]

Interesting tweet on oil prices as North America oil prices decouple from global.
Of course Eastern Canadian refineries are going to feel the brunt of this.

View attachment 99082

Mm hm. While we don’t import much directly from the conflict zone, our east coast import suppliers very much compete in that same market.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

This also makes it really hard to dismantle. It's estimated that something like 50% of Iran's GDP is controlled by the IRCC. They basically run all of the utilities, state owned enterprises and large companies. This means completely eliminating the IRGC is akin to trying to get rid of the CCP in China.

I do think there's layers of complexity here. The Ayatollahs need a loyal mob to keep them in power. And since not everybody is motivated my religion, money is useful to motivate others. It's more likely to be a somewhat symbiotic relationship between the clerical class and the military (IRGC) class.

I can see the IRGC losing power, but reappearing as a full out Mafia after the fact. With many of the low level becoming the muscle. Israel has created quite the churn in the leadership and that also means that a lot of the money is not available as access to foreign bank accounts disappearing with the death of the leadership.
For such a small minority to control the people, it's going to take a lot of barbarity and my guess is that revenge on the remains of the IRGC is going to be without much mercy. A factor that plays a part in the IRGC remaining in control is how much hard cash they have to pay their supporters. If that begins to run out, they are going to start losing foot soldiers fast, leaving them with diehards and ones with a lot of blood on their hands already.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Interesting tweet on oil prices as North America oil prices decouple from global.
Of course Eastern Canadian refineries are going to feel the brunt of this.

View attachment 99082

Here in southern BC we get all our oil from western Canada, which is refined in Burnaby. Even the refined fuel products coming from the US (Cherry Point) uses Western Canadian feedstocks via the Kinder Morgan pipeline. As fuel consumption slows and storage fills up, I can see price at the pump starting to drop so consumption goes up and the refinery does not have to cease production, which causes problems.

Now the feds and the Provinces could reduce the inflationary trend by putting a "tax holiday" onto Carbon tax on refined fuels till the conflict ceases, but they are addicted to that revenue.

 

[brihard]

Here in southern BC we get all our oil from western Canada, which is refined in Burnaby. Even the refined fuel products coming from the US (Cherry Point) uses Western Canadian feedstocks via the Kinder Morgan pipeline. As fuel consumption slows and storage fills up, I can see price at the pump starting to drop so consumption goes up and the refinery does not have to cease production, which causes problems.

Now the feds and the Provinces could reduce the inflationary trend by putting a "tax holiday" onto Carbon tax on refined fuels till the conflict ceases, but they are addicted to that revenue.

Watch for indications that Asian consumers are increasing their capacity to refine western Canadian oil. Also watch for any indication of increased throughput at any stage of the oil transport chain- pipeline capacity out of Alberta (more pipeline, additives to increase flow rate), refining capacity in Alberta or B.C., port capacity expansion (dredging Burrard; new terminals)… Basically anything that lets any customer receive and use more Canadian oil.

We have a limited ability to add more to the global market, which sucks. And even as someone driving a car in B.C., until export capacity is maxed out you’ll see the price competition of Canadian suppliers selling at a premium to Asian customers who are really, really screwed.

I don’t have a good sense yet of demand destruction that’s starting to happen due to the supply shock, but I want to get that figured out.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Watch for indications that Asian consumers are increasing their capacity to refine western Canadian oil. Also watch for any indication of increased throughput at any stage of the oil transport chain- pipeline capacity out of Alberta (more pipeline, additives to increase flow rate), refining capacity in Alberta or B.C., port capacity expansion (dredging Burrard; new terminals)… Basically anything that lets any customer receive and use more Canadian oil.

We have a limited ability to add more to the global market, which sucks. And even as someone driving a car in B.C., until export capacity is maxed out you’ll see the price competition of Canadian suppliers selling at a premium to Asian customers who are really, really screwed.

I don’t have a good sense yet of demand destruction that’s starting to happen due to the supply shock, but I want to get that figured out.

Our abilty to export from the Vancouver terminal is limited by dredged channel, rail bridge lift schedules, escort tug availability and Ships Pilot availability.

 

[Quirky]

You were close! 3-5 years to fix the damage that knocked out 17% of their capacity.

And that % is only going to go up the longer this goes on.

Exclusive: Iran attacks wipe out 17% of Qatar’s LNG capacity for up to five years, QatarEnergy CEO says

The attacks ‌caused an estimated $20 billion in lost annual revenue.

www.reuters.com

Qatar has a fairly impressive list of kit to hit back Iran, fighter jets and attack helicopters. You'd think an attack on their energy sector would trigger a sever response.

 

[ytz]

For such a small minority to control the people

It's actually millions of people. It's not "such a small minority".

Qatar has a fairly impressive list of kit to hit back Iran, fighter jets and attack helicopters. You'd think an attack on their energy sector would trigger a sever response.

To what end? They only got hit because the Israelis hit South Pars. Moving up the escalation ladder will only result in more Qatari infrastructure destroyed.

Your post shows a fundamental problem here. People on this side of the pond don't actually understand the interests of the different countries in the region.

 

[HavokFour]

I'm not sure who exactly is "winning" this war right now.

Trump administration may unsanction some Iranian oil as energy prices spike, Bessent says​

 

[FSTO]

Our abilty to export from the Vancouver terminal is limited by dredged channel, rail bridge lift schedules, escort tug availability and Ships Pilot availability.

That is why Prince Rupert should have been done way back in the 50's.

 

[brihard]

Qatar has a fairly impressive list of kit to hit back Iran, fighter jets and attack helicopters. You'd think an attack on their energy sector would trigger a sever response.

At which point Iran makes it even worse for them, which they’re very capable of. 17% leaves lots of room for more.

Iran has explicitly threatened more destruction of energy infrastructure if theirs is targeted. I essentially this is mutually assured destruction, played out with attacks on critical energy infrastructure instead of nukes on cities. Iran appears to have accepted that this is their strategic option and they’re willing to use it.

It would be utterly irrational at this point to not assume Iran is willing and able to destroy or damage more major infrastructure, and that they will regionalize this destruction fairly indiscriminately as their way of hurting the interests of the U.S. and Israel.

Yes. All of those countries can kill Iranians and break their stuff. That already seems to be priced in to the Iranian calculus. Put crudely, they’re willing to play chicken with missiles and LNG/oil facilities.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I'm not sure who exactly is "winning" this war right now.

Trump administration may unsanction some Iranian oil as energy prices spike, Bessent says​

Lots of straws bobbing around some people failing in the water right now.

 

[brihard]

I'm not sure who exactly is "winning" this war right now.

Trump administration may unsanction some Iranian oil as energy prices spike, Bessent says​

Trying to frame this as U.S. leverage over Iran is dishonest. Iran’s disrupting supply enough that sanctions may need to be selectively lifted on Iranian oil to mitigate the economic harm of supply shock. This is the U.S. reacting against their own longstanding policy in response to Iran’s moves.

Bessemer is trying to frame this as a positive when it’s decidedly not.

 

[Good2Golf]

He's setting himself up for some major egg saying Israel won't attack Pars again.

Unless he attacks first…

…United States of America, with or without the help or consent of Israel, will massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field at an amount of strength and power that Iran has never seen or witnessed before. I do not want to authorize this level of violence and destruction because of the long term implications that it will have on the future of Iran, but if Qatar’s LNG is again attacked, I will not hesitate to do so.