Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Cloud Cover]

And fuel isn't the only worry. Not enough people are talking about the fertilizer shortage right before planting season. For North American farmers that's maybe a 30% hit in costs. But for the developing world we're risking actual famine in some places as food production tanks. Just look at what happened in Sri Lanka few years ago when they cut fertilizer imports because of Balance of Payments issues. We're now taking that global.

I’m being quoted $1800/ton for Triple 18. In 2019 it was $350 (roughly). In the US their break point is ~$650. We will likely cut back corn (our corn is feed corn) by 75% and grow beans. And cut back on fertilizer per acre to 50kg from 100kg.
I think most ranch farm combos that have no access to open or Crown range will do the same. That means far less available cattle feed, and far fewer cattle. So the price of beef will shoot right through the roof. In general right now, it looks like the input costs from seed to scythe is about double what is was last year, maybe more.

One more thing: in BC ranch values are plummeting due to land claims. Ranches that borrow to finance operations will likely go bankrupt- which I’m starting to suspect is exactly the plan of the Eby Viet Minh government.

 

[ytz]

By the way, the people who could help navigate a way out of global energy crisis? Fired by DOGE.

Trump’s DOGE Cuts Slashed Staff That Handled Middle Eastern Oil and Gas Crises

Six months before going to war in Iran, the U.S. government cut staff that would have been central to the current situation.

www.notus.org

 

[Colin Parkinson]

People love blaming Israel, but the Iranian threat wasn't going away or getting smaller, they successful broke the Abrahamic Accords using Hamas and the Gulf States were going back to supporting MB organizations. Which will inflame anti-west/US attitudes, regardless of whether the US is active in the region or goes home. The US wants to be the worlds biggest power, but does not want the baggage that comes with that title.

 

[Lumber]

People love blaming Israel, but the Iranian threat wasn't going away or getting smaller, they successful broke the Abrahamic Accords using Hamas and the Gulf States were going back to supporting MB organizations. Which will inflame anti-west/US attitudes, regardless of whether the US is active in the region or goes home. The US wants to be the worlds biggest power, but does not want the baggage that comes with that title.

I wonder though if the Americans had instead practiced détente with Iran, would they have been so gung how to flood the ME with proxies? They got all of Israel's other bad-neighbors to start playing nice, maybe the could have convinced Iran as well. Let them be a Islamist theocracy, but make them happy to keep it to themselves.

Too late now, I suppose.

 

[Cloud Cover]

I wonder though if the Americans had instead practiced détente with Iran, would they have been so gung how to flood the ME with proxies? They got all of Israel's other bad-neighbors to start playing nice, maybe the could have convinced Iran. Let them be a Islamist theocracy, but make them happy to keep it to themselves.

Too late now, I suppose.

I’m of the opinion that the collective west has tried everything with IRGC, and they’ve only become more rotten. Not the Iranian people, but the regime and its institutions. If there ever was a regime in a country that had it coming for decades, this is it.

Also we need to consider that if Israel and Trump had not done this, what would have or could have happened. Certainly not peace and tranquility. It’s going to be a long on again, off again war that will see the world switch away from Middle East oil and mining and over to countries like primarily Canada, Venezuela, Chile, Australia, and unfortunately Russia.

 

[The Bread Guy]

... Not enough people are talking about the fertilizer shortage right before planting season. For North American farmers that's maybe a 30% hit in costs. But for the developing world we're risking actual famine in some places as food production tanks. Just look at what happened in Sri Lanka few years ago when they cut fertilizer imports because of Balance of Payments issues. We're now taking that global.

Big Food & Ag get this, even if many other people don't.

Iran War Strangles Fertilizer Supplies, Sparks Fears of Food Shortage - The Food Institute

Fertilizer shortages tied to the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure threaten global food supply, raising crop risks and food prices worldwide.

foodinstitute.com

Iran War Deprives U.S. Farmers of Affordable Fertilizer as Spring Planting Looms

Farmers in the U.S. and Canada, already worried about another year of low profits or losses, now could have spring planting disrupted as they struggle to find fertilizer.

www.agriculture.com

Energy shock, fertilizer crunch, freight surge: Food manufacturers face triple hit from Iran war

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing US-Israeli strikes on Iran has triggered a supply chain crisis that extends far beyond crude oil, threatening food ingredient markets through a cascade of fertilizer shortages, vegetable oil price spikes, sugar refinery disruption, and a sharp...

www.foodingredientsfirst.com

 

[Lumber]

Big Food & Ag get this, even if many other people don't.

Iran War Strangles Fertilizer Supplies, Sparks Fears of Food Shortage - The Food Institute

Fertilizer shortages tied to the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure threaten global food supply, raising crop risks and food prices worldwide.

foodinstitute.com

Iran War Deprives U.S. Farmers of Affordable Fertilizer as Spring Planting Looms

Farmers in the U.S. and Canada, already worried about another year of low profits or losses, now could have spring planting disrupted as they struggle to find fertilizer.

www.agriculture.com

Energy shock, fertilizer crunch, freight surge: Food manufacturers face triple hit from Iran war

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing US-Israeli strikes on Iran has triggered a supply chain crisis that extends far beyond crude oil, threatening food ingredient markets through a cascade of fertilizer shortages, vegetable oil price spikes, sugar refinery disruption, and a sharp...

www.foodingredientsfirst.com

Saskatchewan seeing dollar signs.

 

[Remius]

Saskatchewan seeing dollar signs.

Maybe Trump will remove tariffs on something like, I don’t know. potash?

Amazing how short sighted this administration is.