Iran Super Thread- Merged

[daftandbarmy]

You were close! 3-5 years to fix the damage that knocked out 17% of their capacity.

And that % is only going to go up the longer this goes on.

Exclusive: Iran attack wipes out 17% of Qatar’s LNG capacity for up to five years, QatarEnergy CEO says

Iranian attacks have knocked out 17% of Qatar's liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity, causing an estimated $20 billion in lost annual revenue and threatening supplies ‌to Europe and Asia, QatarEnergy's CEO told Reuters on Thursday.

www.reuters.com

So far...

 

[ytz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2034430433350615365

Gift link to article:

https://twitter.com/x/status/2034430433350615365

 

[Colin Parkinson]

One possible change of trajectory for Iran is that a military dictatorship replaces, finally, the nominally religious one, overtly casting aside the trappings of theocracy. The mullahs may be abstemious religious scholars intent on preparing/purifying themselves for the afterlife, but almost every other kind of person enjoys some pleasures of the flesh, for which it is necessary to be alive and preferable not to have to keep looking out for killjoy religious enforcers.

That Khamenei's son might have been selected as his father's replacement is a substantial step down in quality, as Khamenei was a (slight) step down from Khomenei. If the IRGC is fed up with or senses weakness in the religious leadership, the IRGC can take all of the power, if they choose.

The regime (how the government is structured and functions) might not really change much, but it's foreign policy might change a lot and reset conditions and terms of negotiations.

I have been of the opinion that the IRGC has been calling the shots for quite awhile and that the Clerics were mostly window dressing. The IRGC went full mafia and took control of most of the economic activities in the country and were more concerned about retaining wealth and power.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

The Iranian response to the Pars strike.

QatarEnergy reports 'extensive damage' after missile attacks on Ras Laffan

Qatar's state oil giant QatarEnergy said ‌on Wednesday that Iranian missile attacks on Ras Laffan, the site of the country's core LNG processing operations, caused "extensive damage."

www.reuters.com

More incentive for Canada to get going on more pipes.

I would have imprisoned them in the country

 

[ytz]

I have been of the opinion that the IRGC has been calling the shots for quite awhile and that the Clerics were mostly window dressing. The IRGC went full mafia and took control of most of the economic activities in the country and were more concerned about retaining wealth and power.

This also makes it really hard to dismantle. It's estimated that something like 50% of Iran's GDP is controlled by the IRCC. They basically run all of the utilities, state owned enterprises and large companies. This means completely eliminating the IRGC is akin to trying to get rid of the CCP in China.

I do think there's layers of complexity here. The Ayatollahs need a loyal mob to keep them in power. And since not everybody is motivated my religion, money is useful to motivate others. It's more likely to be a somewhat symbiotic relationship between the clerical class and the military (IRGC) class.

 

[brihard]

You were close! 3-5 years to fix the damage that knocked out 17% of their capacity.

And that % is only going to go up the longer this goes on.

Exclusive: Iran attack wipes out 17% of Qatar’s LNG capacity for up to five years, QatarEnergy CEO says

Iranian attacks have knocked out 17% of Qatar's liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity, causing an estimated $20 billion in lost annual revenue and threatening supplies ‌to Europe and Asia, QatarEnergy's CEO told Reuters on Thursday.

www.reuters.com

Jesus Christ… Yeah, anyone with the ability to boost LNG capacity in the short term is probably now in a position to go for it hard.

And as you and others say- so far.

 

[Cloud Cover]

Interesting tweet on oil prices as North America oil prices decouple from global.
Of course Eastern Canadian refineries are going to feel the brunt of this.

 

[brihard]

Interesting tweet on oil prices as North America oil prices decouple from global.
Of course Eastern Canadian refineries are going to feel the brunt of this.

View attachment 99082

Mm hm. While we don’t import much directly from the conflict zone, our east coast import suppliers very much compete in that same market.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

This also makes it really hard to dismantle. It's estimated that something like 50% of Iran's GDP is controlled by the IRCC. They basically run all of the utilities, state owned enterprises and large companies. This means completely eliminating the IRGC is akin to trying to get rid of the CCP in China.

I do think there's layers of complexity here. The Ayatollahs need a loyal mob to keep them in power. And since not everybody is motivated my religion, money is useful to motivate others. It's more likely to be a somewhat symbiotic relationship between the clerical class and the military (IRGC) class.

I can see the IRGC losing power, but reappearing as a full out Mafia after the fact. With many of the low level becoming the muscle. Israel has created quite the churn in the leadership and that also means that a lot of the money is not available as access to foreign bank accounts disappearing with the death of the leadership.
For such a small minority to control the people, it's going to take a lot of barbarity and my guess is that revenge on the remains of the IRGC is going to be without much mercy. A factor that plays a part in the IRGC remaining in control is how much hard cash they have to pay their supporters. If that begins to run out, they are going to start losing foot soldiers fast, leaving them with diehards and ones with a lot of blood on their hands already.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Interesting tweet on oil prices as North America oil prices decouple from global.
Of course Eastern Canadian refineries are going to feel the brunt of this.

View attachment 99082

Here in southern BC we get all our oil from western Canada, which is refined in Burnaby. Even the refined fuel products coming from the US (Cherry Point) uses Western Canadian feedstocks via the Kinder Morgan pipeline. As fuel consumption slows and storage fills up, I can see price at the pump starting to drop so consumption goes up and the refinery does not have to cease production, which causes problems.

Now the feds and the Provinces could reduce the inflationary trend by putting a "tax holiday" onto Carbon tax on refined fuels till the conflict ceases, but they are addicted to that revenue.