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  1. Brad Sallows

    Iran Super Thread- Merged

    Their plan had approximately the quality of underpants gnomes. They were going to remove the regime, and then something democratic was going to (magically) arise to replace it. On the most fundamental point that mattered, it wasn't a plan; it was a hope. Approximately everything that...
  2. Brad Sallows

    Iran Super Thread- Merged

    Absolutely. What amuses me is how much of it is wrong. That's why I enjoy it. The Iranian regime has been at war with Israel and the US pretty much since its inception. It's just that it's been a long war with sporadic hostile activity. Morality doesn't enter into it. Any country...
  3. Brad Sallows

    Iran Super Thread- Merged

    I really enjoy the microscopic scrutiny of the US in the first few days after it starts a new round of hostilities. Always a litany of failures. Regime removal is easy; replacement is hard. Iran did have a bit of democratic tradition decades ago, but not enough to shake...
  4. Brad Sallows

    Trump administration 2024-2028

    Correct. Now the numbers make sense.
  5. Brad Sallows

    Trump administration 2024-2028

    Must be a heckuva interest rate. Total tariff take for 2025 was < $300M.
  6. Brad Sallows

    Iran Super Thread- Merged

    I'd hate to be in the crew of a conventionally-powered sub operating in shallow/confined waters, facing US ASW.
  7. Brad Sallows

    Trump administration 2024-2028

    I do see a couple of issues. One is plain ordinary insider trading, which is a corruption problem. The other is OPSEC - what is revealed by betting activity, or the number of pizza orders placed for delivery to the Pentagon, or what is revealed by Donald Trump endlessly threatening some other...
  8. Brad Sallows

    CAN-USA Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

    Everything I've read so far indicates that passports and birth certificates would be options for proof of citizenship during registration. Voting (casting a ballot) would require proof of identity. That's where other ID comes in, driver's licence likely being the most common. Is there some...
  9. Brad Sallows

    CAN-USA Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

    If it's possible to lose a birth certificate or a passport, it's possible to lose anything. "Providing proof of citizenship to register, and proof of identity at a polling place, are not horrible bars for voters to clear. I'm curious why it's such a bad policy for the US, but perfectly...
  10. Brad Sallows

    Trump administration 2024-2028

    What would be the point of worrying about OPSEC for indicators of "something is going to happen there" if a major political aim is to properly restore Congress's role in the decision to authorize war? The US can either try for the former or just give up and go with the latter; there is...
  11. Brad Sallows

    Pipelines, energy and natural resources

    Maybe not the best choice of phrase for that.
  12. Brad Sallows

    CAN-USA Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

    "or birth certificate". Not much point going on and on about passports when the fundamental document is there, too. If someone loses a birth certificate, it can be replaced. If a voter lost all acceptable ID before an election and showing ID were required, there are processes for replacing...
  13. Brad Sallows

    CAN-USA Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

    The act would require proof of citizenship to vote. Proof of citizenship is needed to get a passport. If anyone is claiming that's the reason, they either haven't thought it through or they're just trying excuses out for size. The objection advanced by most of the conservatives who are...
  14. Brad Sallows

    Epstein Shockwave

    Almost no-one is trying to paint Trump as the moral centre of gravity. The question is not whether Trump takes advantage of women. The question is whether Trump took advantage of children. Accusations are easy. Something that might resemble evidence is hard. The taint is always descending...
  15. Brad Sallows

    Iran Super Thread- Merged

    That their supply of oil might be even more suddenly constrained if they do something stupid?
  16. Brad Sallows

    Army Reserve Restructuring

    Maybe we've tried, but we've failed. On a course long ago I spoke with a British TA major who explained that although he aspired to be a CO, many of those positions were filled by regular officers and a TA member had to be pretty good to be selected. (He did end up making the cut.) We've done...
  17. Brad Sallows

    Future Armour

    Yes, cost, but not necessarily in large numbers. The idea of the TD was mainly (since inception) a corps-level unit or formation for blocking large armoured forces (stiffen a defence, counter-penetration, guard, etc). There would never have been many. Repeating what I've written before: "TD"...
  18. Brad Sallows

    Army Reserve Restructuring

    How many other countries use this model, in which the leadership of the Res F (army, anyways) is left entirely to the circumstances and fortunes of each unit acting almost alone? Surely most have larger full-time cadres?
  19. Brad Sallows

    Iran Super Thread- Merged

    That was my thinking. Who's next in the target array line of succession?
  20. Brad Sallows

    Iran Super Thread- Merged

    That certainly puts the "TACO" and "No New Wars" slogans out of fashion. Not a whiff of congressional authorization. Not a hope of expecting any, though, nor that any information provided to Congress would have a hope of remaining confidentially held if it could be exploited for domestic...
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