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18 Aug 2025: Poilievre/By-election in Battle River–Crowfoot (AB)

Pierre increased the seat count for the CPC, Jagmeet lost more than half the seats, big difference. Conservatives did well, Liberals did better.


And he had to battle the government funded propaganda machine, the CBC and battle the most of the left leaning media. And the Public unions. Pierre had private money supporting his fund raising, the Liberals had a huge propaganda machine (PUBLICLY funded).
And In spite of all that headwind, all the polling after PP got into the leadership harness showed Team Blue WAY ahead - supermajority country according to some. Then Katy Perry’s latest cuff link had the temerity of doing what Team Blue boosters everywhere ached for: GTFO.

Played a decent numbers game, no question, but lost the game nonetheless. Here’s his second chance.
 
Not focusing on the local is what cost him the last riding, he and his team need to fix that damm quick. If he loses this riding, he is done.

IMG_3521.jpeg

338 is showing some interesting things here. PP is down to 73% today. A bit of a drop. LPC dropped as well. NDP stagnant.

I wonder if some of those independent types might actually give him a harder time than planned.
 
Not focusing on the local is what cost him the last riding, he and his team need to fix that damm quick.
We'll see how receptive the voters there are to having a non-local rep. That said ...
If he loses this riding, he is done.
Because of this (and admittedly guilty of a bit of hyperbole), I suspect the swarm of Team Blue political support staff/volunteers from outside the riding for this one will make D-Day or Operation Bagration (thanks, @vonGarvin for that history lesson a while back) look like calling in one or two casuals for a bit of extra help for the shift.
 
William Lyon MacKenzie King lost his seat three times as Prime Minister.
I think only twice as PM. The other two were before becoming PM. Interestingly he, like PP, went west after he lost his Ontario riding in the 1925 election and won a by-election in Prince Albert, which he represented until being defeated in 1945 and moving back east to win a by-election in Glengarry, east of Ottawa. Back in Prince Albert he had actually defeated Diefenbaker in the 1926 general election.
 
Question, what about Pierre's messaging was wrong or incorrect from the April 2025 election? So far, everything he said was on point.
The part where he tried to convince Canadians that he individually, and his party nationally, was the one to be entrusted to actually deliver, apparently. Canadians chose the guy with a whole career of doing stuff in the real world over the guy with a career of standing up in question period.

Fortunately for Pierre, once he wins his way back into the HoC and gets his QP pulpit back, he gets to recalibrate and show Canadians a new vision and message that’s better than the other guy.


The Liberals have delivered squat and refused to sit parliament through summer to resolve what was a "crisis".

They passed C-5 before Parliament rose. That takes the infrastructure issue out of the legislative branch, and kicks it over to the federal and provincial executive branches, and corporate boardrooms and consultancies to actually bring projects forward. Unless you contend Parliament was supposed to legislate direct creation of some pipelines, ports, etc?
 
I get it, many of you are cult anti-Pierre/Liberals always right.

Come at me. Go for it.

Small-minded and weak.

I voted for Poilievre in the past. You didn’t.

I don’t think you have a right to critique and insult those who voted in Carleton riding, however they voted.

The riding was his to lose…and he did.
 
They passed C-5 before Parliament rose.
Bill C-5 was supposed to get a lot of things done quickly. And it hasn't. I realize the CPC supported C-5 (with their caveats) however we got the "elbows up mentality" and PM MC directly saying "Build, baby, build" (Ok, lets see it?)
infrastructure issue out of the legislative branch, and kicks it over to the federal and provincial executive branches, and corporate boardrooms and consultancies to actually bring projects forward
And still not seeing any motion, but F it, its everyone else problem now. Sorry, don't accept the "its their issue now"

BOTTOM LINE "PM MC Promised BIG and he isn't delivering". I am watching Trump eat this man alive. 35% tariffs, yay. Nope, all you Liberals are saints crowds lost the main picture and fail to see the end state.
 
I don’t think you have a right to critique and insult
I'll critique and insult whoever the hell I feel like. Don't like it, tell me to F off.

The riding was his to lose…and he did.
Yes, we all know. I put it on Bruce Fanjoy running a very effective anti-Pierre campaign. Campaigning nationally (which he had to do as a party leader), also sunk his standing, my opinions, and 100% subject to being wrong. Now, he aint your MP to worry about.

Curious. What is it you do for a living and may I ask your age bracket? Strictly curiosity.

I am a farmer (likely not by 2026) and I am in my 50s.
 
Bill C-5 was supposed to get a lot of things done quickly. And it hasn't. I realize the CPC supported C-5 (with their caveats) however we got the "elbows up mentality" and PM MC directly saying "Build, baby, build" (Ok, lets see it?)

And still not seeing any motion, but F it, its everyone else problem now. Sorry, don't accept the "its their issue now"

BOTTOM LINE "PM MC Promised BIG and he isn't delivering". I am watching Trump eat this man alive. 35% tariffs, yay. Nope, all you Liberals are saints crowds lost the main picture and fail to see the end state.
Doesn’t sound like you have much of a grasp of the role of different branches of government and of private business in how major infrastructure is developed and built, but sure, do go on.

C-5 is about reducing regulatory barriers- reducing obstacles to private business a getting permission to build stuff. Private business still then needs to come to the table with specific projects, and it’s laughable to think they would have the economics of major new projects already figured out within just a couple months of significant regulatory changes.

So I’ll pose it to you directly: What, specifically, do you think Parliament should be legislating right now? Not what the executive branch ought to be doing, but actual laws that need to be urgently passed on top of C-5 to foster economic growth and resilience? Because that’s what Parliament does. Most of the heavy lifting isn’t them.
 
BOTTOM LINE "PM MC Promised BIG and he isn't delivering". I am watching Trump eat this man alive. 35% tariffs, yay. Nope, all you Liberals are saints crowds lost the main picture and fail to see the end state.
35 percent tariffs on 7 percent of trade not covered by CUSMA isn't the big win for Trump that Trump thinks it is.

I think, with the liberation day tariffs, we have one of the lowest global tariff rates with the USA, the only one who could possibly be lower being Mexico.

If that's a loss, I think Canada will take it.
 
35 percent tariffs on 7 percent of trade not covered by CUSMA isn't the big win for Trump that Trump thinks it is.

I think, with the liberation day tariffs, we have one of the lowest global tariff rates with the USA, the only one who could possibly be lower being Mexico.

If that's a loss, I think Canada will take it.
Many of those tariffs have also already been ruled illegal in court following legal challenge by domestic U.S. importers, with they decision presently stayed pending an appeal that has already been heard and is awaiting decision. A lot of the tariffs may go away without any of the targeted countries having to do anything.
 
Many of those tariffs have also already been ruled illegal in court following legal challenge by domestic U.S. importers, with they decision presently stayed pending an appeal that has already been heard and is awaiting decision. A lot of the tariffs may go away without any of the targeted countries having to do anything.
Yeah, this is probably the best time for Canada to stand pat, and ride it out.

Even with the CUSMA renegotiations next year, since CUSMA was passed by an act of congress, I don't think Trump could just rip it up if he doesn't get his way.

I will admit I am not an expert on US congressional rules, but I think he would need 60 senators voting to leave in order to leave CUSMA?
 
Yeah, this is probably the best time for Canada to stand pat, and ride it out.

Even with the CUSMA renegotiations next year, since CUSMA was passed by an act of congress, I don't think Trump could just rip it up if he doesn't get his way.

I will admit I am not an expert on US congressional rules, but I think he would need 60 senators voting to leave in order to leave CUSMA?
Rag the puck through the midterms. He probably loses considerable power then.
 
Carney showed up and hailed himself an experienced and savvy crisis manager. A financial whiz kid. The only person with the smarts, guts and know how to guide Canada. So, how do you think Carney has made out on that point? Not picking a fight, but I haven't seen a lot of him proving that expertise. Outside Starmer and some of his globalist buddies, you'd be hard pressed to find a person in Britain who does not blame him for the miserable financial and social problems they are in. And now he wants to implement those same measures here.

He's being shown as not having done much of anything since his coronation. He's talking alot, making promises but not fulfilling them. He's making decisions, like preparing to join the EU, without consulting Canadians. We didn't ask for or agree to that. The Palestine question was asked and answered in the HoC with a majority vote against recognising Palestine as a state outside a negotiated two state solution. Carney just took it on to himself to go against the will of the HoC who represent a majority of Canadians. His intent is to go to the UN in September and declare Canada backs Palestinian statehood and formation of said state. That is not sitting well with a whole lot of people. So far, there are roughly 21 things he's said or promised that were just plain lies, designed to hoodwink the electorate before the election and hype his anti Trump messaging after. IE: Canada supplies all the semi conductors to the US. Carney, an international investment banker, should know that is Thailand's bailiwick.


All to say, I suppose, outside his core supporters who will only vote liberal, no matter the policy, he is losing more support than he's gaining. People are realizing they were sold a bill of goods. His continued use of making decrees of stuff he wants, without passing it in the House is not sitting well. Multi million dollar grants and aid to Gaza and Hamas while destitute Canadians increase daily due to liberal policy, does not give a warm fuzzy that he could care less about Canadians. Many of his plans appear to be of benefit to Brookfield and Canadians are seeing it more and more. They feel abandoned by a PM that is worried more about his portfolio, than Canadians Charter Rights.

We now know where he is trying to push the West. When Alberta finds outside investors, has money of their own to put into a project, has support and agreement with Ontario to build a pipeline to replace the continually fragile Line 5 and Whitmer's continued blackmail. All they need is for Ottawa to say OK. The same with a number of other new pipelines and expansion to existing ones. Without consideration or consultation, Alberta has to find out on the news, that a pipeline that costs taxpayers near nothing has been dismissed out of hand by Carney. Even though it is vital to Canada's security and supply.

He is spending billions of taxpayer dollars with no oversight of Parliament. His conflict of interests paperwork don't show the dozen or so conflicts he stated as having, but over 130 of them. The overseer of his conflict of interest file is a former Brookfeild colleague and now a Minister in his government.

Carney’s honeymoon is over. I never thought we'd find someone more divisive, heavy handed, untruthful and destructive to Canada and its people than trudeau. I was wrong, I guess.

And poking it's head up is talk of another truck convoy in September.
 
Rag the puck through the midterms. He probably loses considerable power then.
All indications show the Republicans will increase their share in the midterms. The majority of Americans are in support of Trump and his approval rating, even according to CNN, is growing steadily with numbers not seen since FDR.
 
Doesn’t sound like you have much of a grasp of the role of different branches of government and of private business in how major infrastructure is developed and built, but sure, do go on.

C-5 is about reducing regulatory barriers- reducing obstacles to private business a getting permission to build stuff. Private business still then needs to come to the table with specific projects, and it’s laughable to think they would have the economics of major new projects already figured out within just a couple months of significant regulatory changes.

So I’ll pose it to you directly: What, specifically, do you think Parliament should be legislating right now? Not what the executive branch ought to be doing, but actual laws that need to be urgently passed on top of C-5 to foster economic growth and resilience? Because that’s what Parliament does. Most of the heavy lifting isn’t them.
What is the Executive Branch in Canadian politics. Who is it and under what authority do they govern? What are their powers to make laws or implement policy without Parliament?

I only ask because everytime I use an American political term to describe something here, we get two pages of indignation about me using the term. I have never heard of the PMO (if that's who it is) described as the Executive Branch.

Just asking for clarification of the term as it applies in Canada.
 
All indications show the Republicans will increase their share in the midterms. The majority of Americans are in support of Trump and his approval rating, even according to CNN, is growing steadily with numbers not seen since FDR.
I wouldn’t bet on that.

Tariff impacts are starting to hit our shelves and that is going to keep hurting him, and increase the bleeding.

Most Americans support some of POTUS policies, but are very aggravated with others. If the Democrats were not busy imploding nationally, there would be larger issues. Regionally Republicans are in trouble most areas.

Plus firing people because you don’t like the data isn’t exactly endearing.
 
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