2022 CPC Leadership Discussion: Et tu Redeux

[Remius]

This article from the NP touches on some of the concerns raised here.

While that abacus poll shows over 80% of Canadians want change, some 50% don’t like the alternatives. John Ivison touches on what might be at stake and why.

John Ivison: Poilievre looks poised on the surface. Underneath, he's paddling like hell

While recent opinion polls paint a rosy picture, four byelections promise more anxiety for the Conservative leader.

nationalpost.com

 

[brihard]

This article from the NP touches on some of the concerns raised here.

While that abacus poll shows over 80% of Canadians want change, some 50% don’t like the alternatives. John Ivison touches on what might be at stake and why.

John Ivison: Poilievre looks poised on the surface. Underneath, he's paddling like hell

While recent opinion polls paint a rosy picture, four byelections promise more anxiety for the Conservative leader.

nationalpost.com

We’re in one of those times where “change” and “the way things are” are competing for which sucks more, and a lot of us can’t stand the prospect of either.

 

[Lumber]

So we've settled it then, a Countries economic problem are on the Opposition leader and not the PM.....

Ugh, you ruined my punchline!

It's not the opposition, it's the WEF!

 

[Halifax Tar]

So we've settled it then, a Countries economic problem are on the Opposition leader and not the PM.....

Ugh, you ruined my punchline!

It's not the opposition, it's the WEF!

Canada will get what it votes for.

And you can't blame the opposition for the incompetence we continue to vote into power.

What we are seeing now is entrenched polarization.

 

[mariomike]

I had posted his message and a story about it earlier but it didn’t really garner much attention here.

I read it. Did not comment. But, because of my wife, it did garner my attention,

He also addressed some persistent conspiracy theories related to the World Economic Forum (WEF) and the United Nations.

"Well, my worry with some of the online conspiracy theories about global government and things like this, they're two or three steps away from antisemitism," he said. "And so, if you do not challenge some of these prevailing memes or threads going around the Internet, it's only going to get worse."

 

[RangerRay]

And you can't blame the opposition for the incompetence we continue to vote into power.

You can when a plurality of voters the opposition needs views the opposition as more incompetent than the current incompetent government.

Don’t convince me. Convince those voters, particularly female suburbanites. Saying “Trudeau bad” won’t work.

 

[Halifax Tar]

You can when a plurality of voters the opposition needs views the opposition as more incompetent than the current incompetent government.

Don’t convince me. Convince those voters, particularly female suburbanites. Saying “Trudeau bad” won’t work.

I'm not sure those voters you mention can be convinced. Again, entrenched polarization.

Have you ever argued with a toddler ?

But as I said:

Canada will get what it votes for.

And we deserve it to.

 

[ArmyRick]

No no no! Please keep going; you're soooo close!



That doesn't really sound like his life being ruined, but I'll take your word for it. COVID lock downs were necessary to protect the people of this country. Were the rules that were in place absolutely required? hindsight and follow-on evidence would say, maybe not, but based on the data available at the time, the governments of the world made smart, sensible decisions. So, it's unfortunate that your customer's company closed down, but it was a worldwide pandemic. We can only expect so much. As for the housing prices, those have absolutely nothing to do with any liberal policy, so, try again.


Again, see my comment about COVID lockdown. It was unfortunate, but necessary.


There's some data missing here. Your friend couldn't get the jab, and subsequently left Canada, but you never mentioned how not being able to get the jab led to heir life being ruined. Also, Trudeau's comments/opinion about people don't really have an impact on whether or not his policies had a particular effect or not (that being said, I in no way support any of his defamatory comments about those who refused the jab, or participated in the convoy protest).


Again, you never specifically said which Trudeau policy lead to your customers being unable to afford to pay for meat. If you were going to say it was inflation, I will say that the vast vast vast majority of the cause of inflation is due to global issues, and nothing to due with any Trudeau policy. If you were going to say the carbon tax, then I call BS as the effect of carbon tax (so far) has been so miniscule that I do not buy for second that the carbon tax ALONE could cause someone's life to be ruined (ok, I won't say NEVER, but there would have had to have been some very specific circumstances where someone's entirely livelihood was 1. extremely dependent on the price of gas, and 2. already walking a fine line between stable and failure, such that even a small increase in gas costs sent them over the edge).

Your really not getting it. Every economist in this country points the finger at Trudeau for Canadians having like ZERO spending power. Your choosing to be blind.

 

[dimsum]

Your really not getting it. Every economist in this country points the finger at Trudeau for Canadians having like ZERO spending power. Your choosing to be blind.

Of course they would. If Singh, PP, or Santa Claus was the PM during the past few years, they would be blamed too because they are the leader of the govt.

Indulge me in some light whataboutism:

Say the roles were reversed and the CPC, headed by PP or Harper, was in power. Trudeau, as opposition leader, uses the same strategy to bring up the CPC Govt's issues with handling Covid, inflation, etc. Would the effect be the same?

 

[Remius]

I'm not sure those voters you mention can be convinced. Again, entrenched polarization.

Middle of the road moderate voters are exactly the ones that can be convinced. You’ll never convince the people entrenched at both ends regardless but the undecided middle is where you can make a pitch. If your pitch sucks then that’s on you, not them.

Have you ever argued with a toddler ?

This just shows a misunderstanding of the electorate if you think that is the case with the undecided.

But as I said:



And we deserve it to.

It’s a job application. If you decide to use crayon to write up your resume you aren’t likely going to be getting the job anytime soon.

 

[brihard]

Just posting it here as a lingering epilogue on the CPC leadership election, Maxime Bernier tried to with a seat in a Manitoba byelection last night and got trounced by the CPC candidate. Portage-Lisgar was PPC’s most successful riding in the last election; he as the party leader picked up a smaller percentage of the vote this time around than his party did last time, and PPC remains I represented in Parliament.

Hopefully the CPC can take a breath and realize the PPC is not a threat to them that they need to burn energy and political capital on. They’ve continued to chase support from that fringe at the expense of support in the centre… The support they need to effect a change in government.

Election Night Results - Error

enr.elections.ca

 

[Halifax Tar]

Middle of the road moderate voters are exactly the ones that can be convinced. You’ll never convince the people entrenched at both ends regardless but the undecided middle is where you can make a pitch. If your pitch sucks then that’s on you, not them.

I don't believe that middle of the road voter really exists in the numbers some think it does. I think we have a populace that votes 2/3rds and have been taught anything right of them is a racist who wants to ban abortions.

This just shows a misunderstanding of the electorate if you think that is the case with the undecided.

Im only going off the experience I've lived.

It’s a job application. If you decide to use crayon to write up your resume you aren’t likely going to be getting the job anytime soon.

Remember the toddler comment ?

 

[Remius]

I don't believe that middle of the road voter really exists in the numbers some think it does. I think we have a populace that votes 2/3rds and have been taught anything right of them is a racist who wants to ban abortions.

Im only going off the experience I've lived.



Remember the toddler comment ?

I can’t change your beliefs. Nor am I attempting to. But blaming the electorate for loss after loss is intellectually lazy in my mind. If one doesn’t believe there is a middle undecided group (there is) then one is destined to make the same mistakes.

There is no doubt that Canada is more progressive on a variety of things and that is the balance that seems to elude the CPC. They’ve chosen so far as Brihard noted to cater to the PPC vote share as their path to victory but they are shunning the moderate middle in the process.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Just posting it here as a lingering epilogue on the CPC leadership election, Maxime Bernier tried to with a seat in a Manitoba byelection last night and got trounced by the CPC candidate. Portage-Lisgar was PPC’s most successful riding in the last election; he as the party leader picked up a smaller percentage of the vote this time around than his party did last time, and PPC remains I represented in Parliament.

Hopefully the CPC can take a breath and realize the PPC is not a threat to them that they need to burn energy and political capital on. They’ve continued to chase support from that fringe at the expense of support in the centre… The support they need to effect a change in government.

Election Night Results - Error

enr.elections.ca

Did you see the list of candidates in Winnipeg South-Centre ? lol

 

[Remius]

Did you see the list of candidates in Winnipeg South-Centre ? lol

Election Night Results - Electoral Districts

Election results by electoral district, for federal elections in Canada.

enr.elections.ca

In some cases it would seem that not even their own families voted for them lol.

 

[brihard]

Did you see the list of candidates in Winnipeg South-Centre ? lol

Yeah, that was a deliberate protest apparently- some group opposed to First Past the Post spammed the ballot.

 

[Halifax Tar]

I can’t change your beliefs. Nor am I attempting to. But blaming the electorate for loss after loss is intellectually lazy in my mind. If one doesn’t believe there is a middle undecided group (there is) then one is destined to make the same mistakes.

I mean it is the electorates job to choose who governs us. You can call that lazy or you can just recognize the reality of the system. They/we are 100% responsible for where this country goes.

I never said the middle didn't exist, I said I believe it isn't as big a people think. What differentiates the LPC from NDP anymore ? If you add their popular vote together you get around half the votes cast population of Canada. So where exactly is the middle ? Throw in the Greens and it gets worse.

Do we actually have much of a middle anymore ?

There is no doubt that Canada is more progressive on a variety of things and that is the balance that seems to elude the CPC. They’ve chosen so far as Brihard noted to cater to the PPC vote share as their path to victory but they are shunning the moderate middle in the process.

Canada can choose the progressive path, and Canada can live with the consequences, good and bad. That is the responsibility of the electorate.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Yeah, that was a deliberate protest apparently- some group opposed to First Past the Post spammed the ballot.

Really ? Have an article on that ? I am not a fan of our FPTP system myself and I would be interested to read on this.

 

[IKnowNothing]

Your really not getting it. Every economist in this country points the finger at Trudeau for Canadians having like ZERO spending power. Your choosing to be blind.

Any economist ignoring the supply side factors of inflation to focus solely on M2 is an ideological theoretician ignoring the empirical reality of the last 2.5 years. Lazily falling back on the conventional wisdom of supply side shocks only effecting prices relative to each other rather than causing across the board increase doesn't hold water when you look at how pervasive the supply side shocks were
Plastics
International Freight
If you look carefully at those dates you'll notice that they lead consumer side inflation reporting significantly.

That's before getting into the US losing 5% of it's fuel refining capacity, the impact of Russia's invasion on global fossil fuel and food markets, chip shortages causing equipment backlogs, multi-year California drought etc.

 

[IKnowNothing]

I mean it is the electorates job to choose who governs us. You can call that lazy or you can just recognize the reality of the system. They/we are 100% responsible for where this country goes.

I never said the middle didn't exist, I said I believe it isn't as big a people think. What differentiates the LPC from NDP anymore ? If you add their popular vote together you get around half the votes cast population of Canada. So where exactly is the middle ? Throw in the Greens and it gets worse.

Do we actually have much of a middle anymore ?

Bold A being true does not make bold B true, because assuming an ironclad causal reality between them neglects three huge factors
1. That the electorate chooses who governs us - from the pool of available candidates/parties
2. That the directions of said candidates/parties - are disproportionately influenced by a very small (proportionally) of number partisans - party members and sponsors
3. That 1st past the post encourages both strategic voting on the part of the electorate, and "tent making" on the part of the parties

The overall result is a distorted political landscape that makes it almost impossible to infer the "wants" of the electorate from voting records.