2022 CPC Leadership Discussion: Et tu Redeux

[brihard]

The other wild card is Trudeau. If Trudeau announces he is stepping down, I see the LPC covering him (voting with him) to protect the party. If he stays, I think many a back bencher will turn against him.

I think you’re right about the first part. I doubt the second. Voting against your own party in confidence is sort of an ultimate act for a parliamentarian, and I don’t think any will see it as necessary.

 

[ArmyRick]

I think you’re right about the first part. I doubt the second. Voting against your own party in confidence is sort of an ultimate act for a parliamentarian, and I don’t think any will see it as necessary.

Depends. If a BB (backbencher) is in a former Liberal safe riding (many of these ridings are falling because of Trudeau, we have hit a pinnacle at this point), they may decide save their own futures and at least win their own ridings back (My MP voted against Trudeau). WHEN the liberals fall, it is a gold star on their CV when they throw their name in the hat for the Leadership race.

 

[brihard]

Depends. If a BB (backbencher) is in a former Liberal safe riding (many of these ridings are falling because of Trudeau, we have hit a pinnacle at this point), they may decide save their own futures and at least win their own ridings back (My MP voted against Trudeau). WHEN the liberals fall, it is a gold star on their CV when they throw their name in the hat for the Leadership race.

Is it though? Loyalty to the party is paramount.

Latest we could realistically see a confidence vote would be the spring budget, late April/early May. I can’t see it being dodged any later than that. Could be that something else happens such as an election being triggered. I don’t think for a second that LPC backbenchers will be a decider in any confidence vote, and I think they’ll get the same political boost from LPC-sympathetic voters in their ridings by being vocal about a change in leadership without being seen to trigger a change in government.

 

[ArmyRick]

I don’t think for a second that LPC backbenchers will

...will publicly oppose Trudeau and ask for his resignation (that would have been the common consensus a year ago)

This is the wild west politics we are seeing now. Anything goes.

 

[Good2Golf]

Is it though? Loyalty to the party Leader is paramount.

Latest we could realistically see a confidence vote would be the spring budget, late April/early May. I can’t see it being dodged any later than that. Could be that something else happens such as an election being triggered. I don’t think for a second that LPC backbenchers will be a decider in any confidence vote, and I think they’ll get the same political boost from LPC-sympathetic voters in their ridings by being vocal about a change in leadership without being seen to trigger a change in government.

Does anyone believe that the budget vote will be anything other than a Liberal whipped vote with NDP supporting a modest expansion of pharmacare?

 

[Remius]

Does anyone believe that the budget vote will be anything other than a Liberal whipped vote with NDP supporting a modest expansion of pharmacare?

That’s what could see this parliament extend beyond its current shelf life.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

This is what is wrong with Canadians and politics.

Not just Canadian politics, but politics in general.

 

[brihard]

Does anyone believe that the budget vote will be anything other than a Liberal whipped vote with NDP supporting a modest expansion of pharmacare?

Pretty much what I’ve been predicting.

 

[ArmyRick]

Pretty much what I’ve been predicting.

If the LPC and NDP do just that, and force us through to October, then here are some numbers they might see
Liberals, 5 seats
NDP, 0 seats. Read it again.

It is not an accurate prediction but it is what I think will happen.

 

[ArmyRick]

Not just Canadian politics, but politics in general.

Well, here is a fair warning for all to heed. I am just a crazy old country farmer retired infantry WO who is grumpy and pisses people off, so take it for what it is worth.

Keep on Canada-ing with our politics (image not results based), if specifically this clown show keeps going, forget the trucker convoy being "an existential threat" to the safety of our nation (it never was). I predict something far, far worse will happen. Especially with Trump and his tariffs (thats just a start, folks) driving Canada into absolute economic destruction (which destroys the nation as a whole). All I hear from the LPC and the NDP is constant bitching about Trump. Pierre has stated publicly he will put Canada first, Canada will NEVER be an American state and he will work with Trump to secure our border and nation (He is right, Trump asking us to basically protect ourselves, sad that a few of you can't see that logic).

Keeping the LPC in power longer than spring is the REAL existential threat to our nation. Some of you will think I am wild and right out of 'er but ask yourself what does it look when Canada doesn't exist? Maybe it is 3 or 4 different nations in a year or five? Or maybe some parts of it are states in the USA and some are independent nations? Real shitty scenarios.

If you took a snapshot of Canada today and magically went back to 2015 election and showed Canadians concincly the results, TRudeau and his Liberals would NEVER have gotten in. Nope. Notta. You can't say the same of Harper, Martin, Chretien and Mulroney.

Now time to piss people off (I am good at that, I was hated as an Infantry course section instructor at Meaford), I call spades spades. I point out obvious flaws where I see them. @Retired AF Guy next comment is not aimed at you.

For all the people with some very hopeful stretches of thought that we "somehow" won't get an election early, I think your wrong. Its an opinion not fact. My opinion is your wrong. If you end up being correct, so be it but then Canada will have suffered even more. So I say, get used to it, Trudeau is going out and Poilievre is coming in, most likely sooner rather than later.

 

[IKnowNothing]

@ArmyRick ,

Which would you say should have been the CPC's foremost priority for 2024, doing as much political damage to the LPC and NDP as possible as to set the CPC up for the best electoral outcome possible whenever the election should come
Or
Work to bring down the sitting government as fast as possible to stop the bleeding?

 

[ArmyRick]

@ArmyRick ,

Which would you say should have been the CPC's foremost priority for 2024, doing as much political damage to the LPC and NDP as possible as to set the CPC up for the best electoral outcome possible whenever the election should come
Or
Work to bring down the sitting government as fast as possible to stop the bleeding?

The latter,. The sitting government is LOCKED in procedure by a motion set forth by ALL opposition parties. And there are two more questions of privilege waiting IF they ever resolve the current locked up QoP.

The Liberals could STOP all "damage the government image" immediately. Reserve every single stupid, ineffective and failed policy they have put forth.

The CPC (and the bloc, and according to Singh the NDP too) want to drive us to a much needed election ASAP. If the Liberals keep fighting it, its their own image they tarnish and destroy. Which on that note, the LPC has destroyed its own image. Pierre just reminds us all of their bone head stupidity.

 

[ArmyRick]

Deleted. Could not attach link

 

[RangerRay]

Is it though? Loyalty to the party is paramount.

Yep. Anyone who votes against their party in a confidence motion will be done. Not only will their political career be done but the possibility of getting a cushy gig after politics through your political connections will be done to.

A few years ago, the BC Liberals held a leadership race to replace Christy Clark. The popular former mayor of Surrey, Dianne Watts, threw her hat in the ring. She was extremely popular, improved Surrey immensely and had a reputation of being non-partisan. She then moved to federal politics and became a Tory MP. She came in as an outsider; she had no history with the party and was not a member until she decided to run.

In the end, she lost to a guy who I can’t even remember the name of who was a Gordon Campbell clone but without the charisma and competence. But he had been a BC Liberal Party leader since day one, so party members voted for a “known” party guy over someone who had a record of achievement in a major municipal government and as a federal representative.

The point being, loyalty is rated above all else in politics.

 

[IKnowNothing]

The latter

Ok. Agreed.

So would you also say that the direction PP took with the NDP over the last 18 months (antagonistic, associating them as much with the Liberals as possible, same general attack lines) was a serious strategic mistake? That he carries some responsibility for creating an environment that sees not a single member of a panicked LPC caucus willing/able to cross the floor?

Because if his primary obective was the former (eventual electoral dominance) he's doing a hell of a job. But that outcome has ironically come at the cost of propping up the government/failing to bring them down.

But when the leader is a hammer, everything is a nail.

 

[Rifleman62]

The very FIRST thing the CPC government MUST do is analyze the financials to find out the TRUTH as to what position the government finances are in. That will take some time.

Sorry, but personally, don't trust the financial reporting of this government or Statistics Canada reports.

The SECOND thing to do is to immediately stop all aid giveaways by Gobal Affairs et al until they are vetted. This will save Billions.

The THIRD thing to do is to round up all the people who should not be legally in Canada and sent them to their home countries. Quickly.

The FORTH thing is to pass a Criminal Code of Canada amendment to make if an Offence to mask/disguise your face in public.

Plus axe the tax, defund CBC.

Concurrently if possible.

 

[ArmyRick]

That he carries some responsibility for creating an environment that sees not a single member of a panicked LPC caucus willing/able to cross the floor?

How so? If 10-20 Liberals LEFT their party and sat as independents, and didn't wait until the LPC was crashing epically, it would have shown integrity on their part.
Pierre is not responsible for the sheer weakness in the LPC as a whole.

But when the leader is a hammer, everything is a nail.

Thats it? I can throw in all kinds of sayings.

We need to clean house BIG time. I would rather Pierre stands by his principals than compromise them for "political favour" with others (As Singh did, and its killed their party)

 

[Remius]

Well, here is a fair warning for all to heed. I am just a crazy old country farmer retired infantry WO who is grumpy and pisses people off, so take it for what it is worth.

Keep on Canada-ing with our politics (image not results based), if specifically this clown show keeps going, forget the trucker convoy being "an existential threat" to the safety of our nation (it never was). I predict something far, far worse will happen. Especially with Trump and his tariffs (thats just a start, folks) driving Canada into absolute economic destruction (which destroys the nation as a whole). All I hear from the LPC and the NDP is constant bitching about Trump. Pierre has stated publicly he will put Canada first, Canada will NEVER be an American state and he will work with Trump to secure our border and nation (He is right, Trump asking us to basically protect ourselves, sad that a few of you can't see that logic).

I honestly haven’t heard much from the LPC on Trump. They’ve been surprisingly disciplined. I do however appreciate PPs and specifically Ford’s forceful stance on it.

Keeping the LPC in power longer than spring is the REAL existential threat to our nation. Some of you will think I am wild and right out of 'er but ask yourself what does it look when Canada doesn't exist? Maybe it is 3 or 4 different nations in a year or five? Or maybe some parts of it are states in the USA and some are independent nations? Real shitty scenarios.

Canada will still exist even if this goes to October.

If you took a snapshot of Canada today and magically went back to 2015 election and showed Canadians concincly the results, TRudeau and his Liberals would NEVER have gotten in. Nope. Notta. You can't say the same of Harper, Martin, Chretien and Mulroney.

Ok? Not sure what that hypothetical achieves. I’m sure at the end of their respective runs you could exactly that same thought experiment.

Now time to piss people off (I am good at that, I was hated as an Infantry course section instructor at Meaford), I call spades spades. I point out obvious flaws where I see them. @Retired AF Guy next comment is not aimed at you.

For all the people with some very hopeful stretches of thought that we "somehow" won't get an election early, I think your wrong. Its an opinion not fact. My opinion is your wrong. If you end up being correct, so be it but then Canada will have suffered even more. So I say, get used to it, Trudeau is going out and Poilievre is coming in, most likely sooner rather than later.

I don’t see hopeful stretches of anything. Just wargaming various scenarios and their very real possibilities. One way or another there will be an election in 2025.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Yep. Anyone who votes against their party in a confidence motion will be done. Not only will their political career be done but the possibility of getting a cushy gig after politics through your political connections will be done to.

A few years ago, the BC Liberals held a leadership race to replace Christy Clark. The popular former mayor of Surrey, Dianne Watts, threw her hat in the ring. She was extremely popular, improved Surrey immensely and had a reputation of being non-partisan. She then moved to federal politics and became a Tory MP. She came in as an outsider; she had no history with the party and was not a member until she decided to run.

In the end, she lost to a guy who I can’t even remember the name of who was a Gordon Campbell clone but without the charisma and competence. But he had been a BC Liberal Party leader since day one, so party members voted for a “known” party guy over someone who had a record of achievement in a major municipal government and as a federal representative.

The point being, loyalty is rated above all else in politics.

I told our prospective CPC candidates, is that the reason the CPC lost North and West Vancouver was that the politicians became trained seals. It's the voters that put them into power, not the party. At some point you have to honour the voters in your constituents over your party. We really need to put the power back unto the MP and hobble the PMO.

 

[ArmyRick]

I honestly haven’t heard much from the LPC on Trump. They’ve been surprisingly disciplined. I do however appreciate PPs and specifically Ford’s forceful stance on it.

Yup. Even though the ship is sinking, they still need to attempt to keep it afloat. This means they need a realistic plan to deal with Trump and sooner rather than later. Trudeau, by all accounts should be at the helm of this instead of a ski vacation.

Canada will still exist even if this goes to October.

Most likely. If status quo stays the same, we will be considerably poorer. We need to move the needle on the prosperity/poverty gage sooner rather than later

Ok? Not sure what that hypothetical achieves. I’m sure at the end of their respective runs you could exactly that same thought experiment.

What I mean by this is that Martin end of term compared to beginning of term wasn't that different (or maybe my hindsight is off?), Chretien, there was difference, some good, some bad but then again, Chretien knew to listen to his advisors and get out. Mulroney, definitely a difference but not to the same extent.
Now Trudeau's Canada 2025 vs Trudeau's Canada late 2015 is beyond night and day difference. The deficit is gone beyond sky high, wasted money on nonsense is through the roof, military is absolutely gutted and morally trampled on, our reputation with our allies is in the toilet, our economy is flat lined (and only a very small portion can be blamed on the "covid crisis"), Hows that electoral reform? Ohhh but we got legalized marijuana. Half of the cabinet is women because its 2015, now look at how many women are repulsed by him in 2025. Hell, the voting base that helped him get his majority in 2015 (18-25 year olds) have all but abandon him now.