2022 CPC Leadership Discussion: Et tu Redeux

[IKnowNothing]

That is the CPC talking point they are trying to promote.

Given that this is still a change election, It seems though that a lot of people who rejected that ideology are seeing Carny as enough of a change.

Will it stick? Don’t know.

And that's the million dollar question:

Were polls prior to JT's resignation-

1. an outright rejection of those ideals
2. a rejection of the dogmatic extremes that JT was taking those ideals in the face of more pressing concerns
3. a rejection of very specific policy failures
4. a repudiation of Justin Trudeau and his character

The CPC strategy and messaging should be shaped by the answer* to that question, because if the answer is some combination of 2-4, Carney has a lot of wiggle room to differentiate himself from JT- and a campaign built on 1 risks falling very flat. And leaves the door open for a massive cinderella/choke job.


*The answer as given by swing voters- not staunch CPC supporters.

 

[Remius]

And that's the million dollar question:

Were polls prior to JT's resignation-

1. an outright rejection of those ideals
2. a rejection of the dogmatic extremes that JT was taking those ideals in the face of more pressing concerns
3. a rejection of very specific policy failures
4. a repudiation of Justin Trudeau and his character

The CPC strategy and messaging should be shaped by the answer* to that question, because if the answer is come combination of 2-4, Carney has a lot of wiggle room to differentiate himself from JT- and a campaign built on 1 risks falling very flat. And leaves the door open for a massive cinderella/choke job.


*The answer as given by swing voters- not staunch CPC supporters.

Don’t forget that all of that is also under the umbrella of a 10 year tired government. Typically ripe for change.

And excellent point about swing voters.

 

[brihard]

@brihard @Good2Golf

Both of you might find this interesting. While still wayyyyyy ahead and with no chance of losing his seat, that chart is still somewhat revealing.

View attachment 91241

Either of my dogs could run Conservative in Carleton and take the riding, but it’s an interesting bellwether. I wonder if it accounts for the redistribution and the changing lines on the map? At least one major growing subdivision won’t be part of Carleton anymore and will chop to Ottawa South.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

The MSM and polls stateside played this same sort of game. Not necessarily the same here, but I wouldn't rule it out.

They constantly polled Trump in a neck and neck race with Harris. The MSM carried the narrative.

Of course, when the real poll, that counted, happened both the narratives and polls were shown to be absolute, democrat driven BS.

When it comes to our polls, I look at what's happening on 338canada.com for trends. I do not depend on a single poll results. One look at EKOS will explain why.

 

[Halifax Tar]

The MSM and polls stateside played this same sort of game. Not necessarily the same here, but I wouldn't rule it out.

They constantly polled Trump in a neck and neck race with Harris. The MSM carried the narrative.

Of course, when the real poll, that counted, happened both the narratives and polls were shown to be absolute democrat driven BS.

We have some very unbiased pollsters in Canada. And 338 is a fantastic resource.

I don't think its the same thing here.

I don't feel the same about our media, by and large.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

We have some very unbiased pollsters in Canada. And 338 is a fantastic resource.

I don't think its the same thing here.

That doesn't change the premise though, we have some very biased ones also.

When dealing with our current carpetbaggers, I simply can't believe a single thing they or their supporters (polls and press) say.

 

[Halifax Tar]

That doesn't change the premise though, we have some very biased ones also.

Sure. We have pollsters who have openly and publicly opposed PP. But they aren't in the majority.

The aggregate is speaking.

Canada is an inherently left leaning country, to a fault. Because of that Canada has to get comfortable in the bed it makes.

 

[Quirky]

Canada is an inherently left leaning country, to a fault. Because of that Canada has to get comfortable in the bed it makes.

Maybe the CPC should step back and let socialism take its course and see what happens.

 

[Remius]

I generally trust the aggregate. It weighs the quality of polls. So Nanos, Léger are rated and weighted more than EKOS for example.

It helps minimise the effect of outliers even if outliers can indicate trends. EKOS spotted a trend and likely polled ahead by a few weeks. The others are just starting to catch up. Now we have a slightly better picture.

But.

No leader in LPC has been chosen. (Including debates that could cement or sink someone)
No official campaign has happened. Those matter.
Other events that could happen.

Nothing is certain anymore. If you asked me a few weeks ago who was a shoe in, I would have said PP. but the game has drastically changed.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Maybe the CPC should step back and let socialism take its course and see what happens.

Sometimes you have to let things fail.

 

[Remius]

Sometimes you have to let things fail.

The threat of political oblivion seems to have spurred a change of policy on the LPC side.

 

[Halifax Tar]

The threat of political oblivion seems to have spurred a change of policy on the LPC side.

Its interesting isn't it. Shall we call it Populism ?

 

[Remius]

Its interesting isn't it. Shall we call it Populism ?

Populism was under Trudeau and PP. Trudeau is gone now or will be.

not sure I see that yet with Carney. But it may be.

Events though are spurring a change in voting intentions more than anything else I think. Threats and who people see as better placed to deal with them.

 

[brihard]

Populism was under Trudeau and PP. Trudeau is gone now or will be.

not sure I see that yet with Carney. But it may be.

Events though are spurring a change in voting intentions more than anything else I think. Threats and who people see as better placed to deal with them.

Tough to even call it “intentions”. It’s asking people to engage with major hypotheticals, more than is even usually the case.