In terms of popular vote, it’s close. Projected seat count is looking less close.
338canada.com
338 is showing the NDP at 45% and BCCP at 44%, well within the margin of error. On the other hand, the projected seat count is at NDP 49 and BC Conservatives at 42. This is consistent with the NDP’s efficient vote distribution.
It’s seems to me that Rustad’s Conservatives is not the united free-enterprise coalition. If it was, they would be leading by 5 points or so. There are enough people from the previous coalition who are staying home because the BC Conservatives are viewed by them to be too kooky. Rustad’s shaky performance in the debate didn’t help either.
As well, I have heard that the BCCP has no ground game. Apparently their GOTV operation is non-existent. They’re running a mainstream campaign on a fringe party budget.
Many people are holding their noses and voting BC Conservative, but not enough. Question is, will BC United reassert their dominance after this election, or will the BCCP take the loss, professionalize the party and try to appeal to more mainstream free-enterprises? Or will the BCCP pull a rabbit out of their hat and pull an upset in a few days?