2025 U.S. - Venezuela conflict

[Altair]

The timelines on your post don't match. CUSMA is needed asap. And heck, any such clause could well push a teteering American economy into recession. It's already a K shaped recovery where everybody but AI tech companies is in stagflation to recession. He does something like that with CUSMA and resulting inflation will actually cause a recession when the Feds are forced to raise rates. Maybe he doesn't care. Who knows. But you can bet every Congress critter absolutely does.

Long term? I am just not worried. Go look at Iraq. They actually still had some talent left in that country. Their oil was easier to manage that heavy and sour Venezuelan crude. And the Americans running that project were still more competent than Trumpers. Still took Iraq 8 years to return to pre-war levels. Oh and most of that money went to European oilcos in the end. You're worried about a world where Trump rallies American industry to go rebuild a massive chunk of Venezuela's economy. And then has to do it in a way that doesn't cause Venezuelans to revolt against American control. And do that in a country where most of the talent fled. Oh and the oilcos have to scrounge up capital for all this by cutting returns to their investors right now. But sure, we probably should take getting another pipeline to the West Coast a bit more seriously now.

This line of reasoning would work well with rational actors.

I'm sure you can see the folly in that right now.

 

[ytz]

This line of reasoning would work well with rational actors.

I'm sure you can see the folly in that right now.

If Trump wants to talk his own economy by making a point with us, there's nothing we can do. Enjoy the ride. And plan for the reversal.

See how quickly he backed off China they minute they refused to ship some critical minerals. Trump's own farmers will string him up if their fertilizers go up 10% in cost. They are already upset about John Deere parts costing more and soybean sales getting them less.

 

[brihard]

This line of reasoning would work well with rational actors.

I'm sure you can see the folly in that right now.

Chevron, Exxon, etc remain rational actors. So do their boards and their large institutional investors. Any involvement will still be conventionally capitalistic and will happen to the extend that it makes sense as the best present and anticipated use of available capital at that time.

 

[Kirkhill]

It was a serious issue there in 1994, one of the guys in my brothers company got kidnapped and never seen again. I had lowlifes in other Venezuelan towns warn me about how crazy Caracas was. Never went into that city during my time there as it was just to dangerous.

Had a young lad from a Miami Venezuelan family that I worked with in Seattle. While in Venezuela the family cars were beaten up Coronas. Driving lessons included keeping a pistol under his thigh, reversing at high speed, shooting out the front window and handbrake turns.

Not a Chavez fan.

 

[ytz]

At its simplest, Trump *served notice to Xi and Putin that he looks at the Americas as America’s.

Less them than those who were happy to work with CRINK in Latin America. Cuba above all else. But also Nicaragua. And beyond that every BRICS and BRI member in the region.

All well and good until China delivers notice that it views Taiwan as Chinese in similar fashion.

I think that's what Exercise Justice Mission 2025 was about.

Justice Mission 2025 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[The Bread Guy]

This isn't even a full coup. This looks like a palace coup with an American assist to put VP Rodriguez in place of Maduro.

About the Veep …

Maduro's presumed successor, Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, is possibly in Russia: report

Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, the presumed successor to captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, is in Russia, according to a report.

www.foxnews.com

Venezuela vice president Rodriguez in Russia, four sources say

Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez is in Russia, four sources familiar with her movements said on Saturday, after President Donald Trump said President Nicolas Maduro had been by U.S. forces after an attack on the country.

www.reuters.com

I guess we’ll see if she decides to remote-work if this is true.

 

[Kirkhill]

Chevron, Exxon, etc remain rational actors. So do their boards and their large institutional investors. Any involvement will still be conventionally capitalistic and will happen to the extend that it makes sense as the best present and anticipated use of available capital at that time.

347 million other Americans, a lot of boards, courts, states, congresses and banks and a lot of them with more money than the Donald. Not to mention the obscure financiers who bring down governments and trash international policies. Outfits like Euroclear and Goldman Sachs.

 

[daftandbarmy]

About the Veep …

Maduro's presumed successor, Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, is possibly in Russia: report

Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, the presumed successor to captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, is in Russia, according to a report.

www.foxnews.com

Venezuela vice president Rodriguez in Russia, four sources say

Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez is in Russia, four sources familiar with her movements said on Saturday, after President Donald Trump said President Nicolas Maduro had been by U.S. forces after an attack on the country.

www.reuters.com

I guess we’ll see if she decides to remote-work if this is true.

 

[Good2Golf]

Less them than those who were happy to work with CRINK in Latin America. Cuba above all else. But also Nicaragua. And beyond that every BRICS and BRI member in the region.

Both can be true, but I think the major signaling was to the fellow P3 members.

 

[ytz]

347 million other Americans, a lot of boards, courts, states, congresses and banks and a lot of them with more money than the Donald. Not to mention the obscure financiers who bring down governments and trash international policies. Outfits like Euroclear and Goldman Sachs.

How many of all those are going to care enough to invest? Return has to be justified to their investors. Just because Maduro is gone, Venezuela doesn't become the best place on earth to put your cash.

 

[markppcli]

I don't imagine Greenland would want "a couple multinational batallions" of EU soldiers in Greenland. Not least because the EU would, if current practice is any measure, immediately demand that Greenland then import several thousand Afghan and Syrian refugees.

Tell me you've never been to eastern Europe without telling me you've never been to eastern Europe.

 

[lenaitch]

Unlike Canada America maintains options.

We build one railway. We build one highway. We build one pipeline.

They build grids.

Roughly ten times the population will do that. We had three transcontinental railways; two went bankrupt.

 

[McG]

How many of all those are going to care enough to invest? Return has to be justified to their investors. Just because Maduro is gone, Venezuela doesn't become the best place on earth to put your cash.

Hey, if US track record is any indicator then Trump can realize all his oil ambitions in 30ish years, within which will need a 20 year counter insurgency war.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2007519113082524030

 

[ytz]

Hey, if US track record is any indicator then Trump can realize all his oil ambitions in 30ish years, within which will need a 20 year counter insurgency war.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2007519113082524030

And oil in Iraq was easier to extract than what Venezuela has.

 

[ytz]

Heck, let's just see if Venezuela stays intact as a state. And doesn't devolve into Libya or Iraq with factionalism.

 

[lenaitch]

Until it comes to getting things onto the oceans when the unions go on strike, landslides break the tracks, Winnipeg gets flooded, the US closes the borders to rail transport into the maritimes or oil and gas into the maritimes, Ontario and Quebec. Or BC and Quebec decide they don't want to play by everybody else's rules.

No. Absolutely no need for redundancy. We're resilient enough.

PS - for how are we fighting with the natives if we only want the 200 km strip along the border in any event?

Unless you intend for the State to build redundancies and operate them at a loss, there is little economic reason for companies to support it. Individual railways used to have multiple lines going to and from the same places - virtually all gone unless there is existing enroute revenue. With railways primarily focused on long-haul bulk traffic, having more than one way to get from Winnipeg to Montreal (each) makes no economic sense. Shareholders ya know.

 

[lenaitch]

At its simplest, Trump *served notice to Xi and Putin that he looks at the Americas as America’s.

And by implication, Europe is Russia's and the western pacific is China's?

 

[Kirkhill]

More like between Thunder Bay and the Soo - more, specifically, Google “Nipigon bridge” for the exact spot. Interesting times the last time it was closed.

Fair.

 

[Kirkhill]

How many of all those are going to care enough to invest? Return has to be justified to their investors. Just because Maduro is gone, Venezuela doesn't become the best place on earth to put your cash.

Agreed.

Oil isn't going any place for a while but there are lots of alternatives. I am very much an all-of-the-above type of person. I will go with the least cost, most secure, solution. And I think that is true for most of the money holders. And it applies in Canada as well.

 

[brihard]

Heck, let's just see if Venezuela stays intact as a state. And doesn't devolve into Libya or Iraq with factionalism.

I wonder what the population does tomorrow? This is their best chance to toss the regime, while things are still rocky, but that window will close quickly as things settle and power reconsolidates.