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Oh, she’s still looney. But even a broken clock is right twice a day.
2025 U.S. - Venezuela conflict
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Oh, she’s still looney. But even a broken clock is right twice a day.
OldSolduer
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Much like myself but on a good day
Just read this quite long thread on Twitter. Best summation yet I’ve seen about the ‘so what?’ for our energy sector from the Venezuelan intervention.
BLUF: 11% of our oil exports to the U.S. go to Gulf refineries that could substitute Venezuelan oil very quickly. ~450k BPD. This is significant leverage for the U.S. over the longer term - and expanding Venezuelan production above its current ~900k BPD would be quite long term - they could, if they attract the capital, substitute quite a bit more, enough that we may not have surplus export capacity in the near to mid term.
The U.S. will face human and financial capital barriers to redeveloping Venezuelan oil unless Petro companies can have sufficient confidence in the Venezuelan business climate.
I think that has obvious implications for the degree to which Trump will blatantly steer the path towards Venezuela’s election and attempt to ensure a result that creates a favourable legal and security environment for U.S. oil companies. They’ve been burned in Venezuela before, Trump will be out of office long before major projects are achieved, and they may not want to be burned again. Venezuela would need to be not just an opportunity to deploy available capital, but the best opportunity to deploy their capital. Trump will grasp that and will try to set conditions for it. What will that look like? And will thirty million Venezuelans stand for it?
For Canada- we need to assume, right now, the imminent substitution of nearly half a million BPD of our exports. It may not happen; I’ll companies need security of supply, but the risk is high enough that we have no excuse not to plan for this. While these are deals between companies, the U.S. has plenty of policy tools to incentivize the economics for their companies importing heavy crude. If this doesn’t happen right away, watch for noises about it around the time of CUSMA discussions.
If the U.S. succeeds in the bigger, longer projects- we need to be prepared to find new buyers for a good chunk of our exports to the U.S.. That will exceed our current non-U.S. export infrastructure. We need more sovereign export infrastructure that doesn’t cross into the U.S., and we need shovels in the ground fast. We need to also kill any notion of Keystone or any project that makes us still more dependent on the U.S. that major strategic vulnerability has just gotten even worse.
BLUF: 11% of our oil exports to the U.S. go to Gulf refineries that could substitute Venezuelan oil very quickly. ~450k BPD. This is significant leverage for the U.S. over the longer term - and expanding Venezuelan production above its current ~900k BPD would be quite long term - they could, if they attract the capital, substitute quite a bit more, enough that we may not have surplus export capacity in the near to mid term.
The U.S. will face human and financial capital barriers to redeveloping Venezuelan oil unless Petro companies can have sufficient confidence in the Venezuelan business climate.
I think that has obvious implications for the degree to which Trump will blatantly steer the path towards Venezuela’s election and attempt to ensure a result that creates a favourable legal and security environment for U.S. oil companies. They’ve been burned in Venezuela before, Trump will be out of office long before major projects are achieved, and they may not want to be burned again. Venezuela would need to be not just an opportunity to deploy available capital, but the best opportunity to deploy their capital. Trump will grasp that and will try to set conditions for it. What will that look like? And will thirty million Venezuelans stand for it?
For Canada- we need to assume, right now, the imminent substitution of nearly half a million BPD of our exports. It may not happen; I’ll companies need security of supply, but the risk is high enough that we have no excuse not to plan for this. While these are deals between companies, the U.S. has plenty of policy tools to incentivize the economics for their companies importing heavy crude. If this doesn’t happen right away, watch for noises about it around the time of CUSMA discussions.
If the U.S. succeeds in the bigger, longer projects- we need to be prepared to find new buyers for a good chunk of our exports to the U.S.. That will exceed our current non-U.S. export infrastructure. We need more sovereign export infrastructure that doesn’t cross into the U.S., and we need shovels in the ground fast. We need to also kill any notion of Keystone or any project that makes us still more dependent on the U.S. that major strategic vulnerability has just gotten even worse.
I am really curious how we do this without some kind of business with China. And how much would the US allow in terms of our independence.
So dumb. Americans don't fear nukes. At least for this generation, they fear occupation. And maybe if Venezuela ends up a completely failed state, they'll fear meddling too.
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Halifax Tar
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What are we gonna do about it ?
What kind of sacrifices are Canadians willing to make for Canada ?
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Read and weep.
stocks.apple.com
Venezuela’s Oil Is Worth As Much As The Magnificent Seven — Forbes
Venezuela’s oil could be a $45 trillion supply shock that lowers inflation, cuts rates and boosts U.S. stocks. Markets are only starting to price what just changed.
stocks.apple.com
We can sell them oil without selling them our oil companies. China is also an export customer. They are not the only one. The demand for oil in Asian markets is considerable, and if we demonstrate an available and geopolitically stable supply at market prices, there will be buyers.
Also the U.S. exports nearly triple the oil/petrochem to China that we do. If they want to get cranky about us increasing sales to global markets as they seek to substitute their imports from us, they can eat a bag of dicks.
IKnowNothing
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I saw an interesting angle on US interventionism that was entirely new to me- interested to see if anyone can speak to its legitimacy.
Basically the premise is that the thread binding Iraq, Libya, and now Venezuela is not just oil, but a willingness and attempt to use significant oil reserves to attack the US Petrodollar as the global currency.
Iraq started to sell oil in Euros -> regime change
Libya started to try to sell oil in gold backed dinars -> regime change
Venezuela started selling oil in yuan -> regime change
Basically the premise is that the thread binding Iraq, Libya, and now Venezuela is not just oil, but a willingness and attempt to use significant oil reserves to attack the US Petrodollar as the global currency.
Iraq started to sell oil in Euros -> regime change
Libya started to try to sell oil in gold backed dinars -> regime change
Venezuela started selling oil in yuan -> regime change
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Some of the latest docs ....
www.theguardian.com
www.ctvnews.ca
Unsealed indictment reveals charges against Nicolás Maduro and his wife
Indictment accuses Venezuelan president of running a ‘corrupt’ government fuelled by a drug-trafficking operation that flooded US with cocaine
www.theguardian.com
How cocaine and corruption led to the indictment of Maduro
A newly unsealed U.S. Justice Department indictment accuses captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro of running a 'corrupt, illegitimate government' fueled by an extensive drug-trafficking operation that flooded the U.S. with thousands of tons of cocaine.
www.ctvnews.ca
OldSolduer
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You could say this doctrine is similar to Ghengis Khan’s doctrine. Except Trump hasn’t annihilated anyone…yet.
Quirky
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Sacrifices and Canadians can't be used together in a sentence. Everyone is addicted to their social programs and handouts. A party running on government cuts or reductions in spending will never form government, you'll never convince Canadians. Just look at how much money goes towards First Nations in this country, Billions and Billions without any results.
MilEME09
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Then we all gotta ask our selves where's the line in the sand? What point is to far?
Quirky
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I'd rather we keep all our programs, but ramp up natural resource extraction. Make it a national priority and stop catering to every special interest and lobby group that comes up with excuses to block projects.
Oldgateboatdriver
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But the "Ear-winged-Black-Forest-Swampland-Frog" needs protection.
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I’ve been tracking that’s well.
America’s left hand and right hand are not talking. Trump‘s tariff war has probably done more damage to the future of the USD then they’re trying to keep the USD Petro the prime monetary tool for oil transactions.
Edit to add: it would be interesting if Canada investigated selling all its petroleum products Eastward in euros and to China in Yuan.
Euros, yes; Yuan no. Let’s not take our eye off the ball here. The U.S. is a much more erratic and quasi-adversarial party, and can do a lot more damage in the short term, but China’s an outright adversary and much smarter and more disciplined and is vastly more dangerous in the long run.
MilEME09
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Except some of those special interest groups are at the whims of America to prevent us from being less dependent on them
The foreign agent registry is imminent. Put it in play and then use those tools to bring them in line or hammer them.
