2025 U.S. - Venezuela conflict

[Good2Golf]

Dealing oil in Yuan firstly binds some of the purchasing power of our own companies to that currency, and secondly would be hugely provocative to the U.S. in a distinctly aggravated way that I don’t think we want.

So perhaps it stays in the back pocket as a “Hmmm….rubs chin, thinking….so Canada is not a country you see as much cooperation with…” moment during USMCA discussions when America takes the ‘take it or leave it’ position?

 

[QV]

Dealing oil in Yuan firstly binds some of the purchasing power of our own companies to that currency, and secondly would be hugely provocative to the U.S. in a distinctly aggravated way that I don’t think we want.

Given one of the reasons the US is after Venezuela is to limit CRINK influence/presence in this hemisphere (recently insinuated by Rubio) doing anything like using Yuan, or any kind of closer ties with the CCP, would undoubtedly attract the kind of response Canada does not need.

 

[QV]

Perhaps, but at what cost? The geopolitical ramifications will likely be felt for decades, and I doubt the US will be fully in control of them

What would the ramifications be left unchecked? Like Iran, sometimes a strategic hit needs to happen.

 

[The Bread Guy]

1939 USSR 170.5 Million people
1939 Finland 3.7 Million people

Finland thwarted the USSR.

If we had to consider the US an active threat why would we be in worse circumstances than 1939 Finland.
As @Furniture sez elsewhere, it is all about choices.

I’m a big fan of the Finns having kicked out-of-proportion ass, but like UKR, doing way better than anyone would have guessed =/= didn’t take damage. How much of Canada would Canadians be willing to give up in that fight while being able to say, “we sure kicked their asses”?

 

[The Bread Guy]

What would the ramifications be left unchecked? Like Iran, sometimes a strategic hit needs to happen.

And just remember all the “dancing in the streets at being ‘liberated’ “ video after US incursions that led to … mixed results, too.

 

[Blackadder1916]

You're discussing this in the context of Canada. How much of this is true in other countries? Mostly notably applicable to our discussion the US. Also, with all of this, it can be handwaved away by simply saying Maduro doesn't have diplomatic immunity. You can see why people think international law is rather flimsy. Seems almost optional. And really enforcement is only one direction. Nobody is ever going to do to an American President what they just did to Maduro.

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE
OFFICE OF FOREIGN MISSIONS
Diplomatic and Consular Immunity: Guidance for Law Enforcement and Judicial Authorities

. . . While customary international law continues to refine the concepts of diplomatic and consular immunity, the basic rules are currently embodied in international treaties. These treaties have been formally adopted by the United States and are, therefore, pursuant to the U.S. Constitution, “the supreme law of the land.” The U.S. government is legally bound to ensure that such privileges and immunities are respected by its states and municipalities. . . .

 

[Kirkhill]

But you know that.

But we don't choose to make much of our geography.

 

[MilEME09]

What would the ramifications be left unchecked? Like Iran, sometimes a strategic hit needs to happen.

Make Maine canadian again?

 

[Brad Sallows]

Diplomatic immunity is a useful concept. It ought to be preserved. For it to be preserved, the community which benefits from it must ensure it is not abused, by removing its protections from those who abuse it. If they don't police the privilege, countries tired of shit and with the power to do something about it are going to take care of the shit.

It is not really any different than the burden of those who would govern to not let shit go unchecked for so long that voters will tolerate anyone promising a semblance of a return to making everyone follow most of the rules most of the time.

File under Order, International, Rules-based, Maintenance of.

 

[brihard]

Diplomatic immunity is a useful concept. It ought to be preserved. For it to be preserved, the community which benefits from it must ensure it is not abused, by removing its protections from those who abuse it. If they don't police the privilege, countries tired of shit and with the power to do something about it are going to take care of the shit.

It is not really any different than the burden of those who would govern to not let shit go unchecked for so long that voters will tolerate anyone promising a semblance of a return to making everyone follow most of the rules most of the time.

File under Order, International, Rules-based, Maintenance of.

I don't know why diplomatic immunity keeps coming up here. It's not a factor for Maduro. I've been very clear on that.

Even if it were, which it isn't, diplomatic immunity is not something unilaterally asserted by a sending state anyway; any receiving state grants and can revoke the accreditation of someone sent to perform diplomatic functions and order them to leave their territory as fast as possible. Abuse of diplomatic immunity is not at all difficult to address.

 

[FSTO]

Since SCOTUS gave the US President immunity over his actions while in office, will the kidnapped HOS of a sovereign country be given the same treatment in the USA?
Asking as a non lawyer.

 

[Altair]

Since SCOTUS gave the US President immunity over his actions while in office, will the kidnapped HOS of a sovereign country be given the same treatment in the USA?
Asking as a non lawyer.

Easy answer.

Maduro isn't the US president.

 

[IKnowNothing]

I’ve been tracking that’s well.

America’s left hand and right hand are not talking. Trump‘s tariff war has probably done more damage to the future of the USD then they’re trying to keep the USD Petro the prime monetary tool for oil transactions.

Edit to add: it would be interesting if Canada investigated selling all its petroleum products Eastward in euros and to China in Yuan.

I found this summary of the Miran paper that's been guiding the right hand so far. Helped me to avoid getting lost in the weeds with a full re-read

https://sprott.carleton.ca/up-our-g...ck-Summary-and-Analysis-of-Mirans-article.pdf

Basically they're walking an incredibly thin line on the tariff and trade side to manipulate currencies in their favour while maintaining their status as global reserve and have other countries shoulder the cost/burdens of such. The threat of other actors trying to take advantage of the chaos they're causing to subvert the dollar is explicitly identified- which underlines why such extreme action re: Venezuela.


So it seems like less of left hand not talking to right, and moreso an extreme example of trying to have their cake and eat it too backing them into a corner where some actions have seemingly contradictory first order consequences

 

[Good2Golf]

I found this summary of the Miran paper that's been guiding the right hand so far. Helped me to avoid getting lost in the weeds with a full re-read

https://sprott.carleton.ca/up-our-g...ck-Summary-and-Analysis-of-Mirans-article.pdf

Basically they're walking an incredibly thin line on the tariff and trade side to manipulate currencies in their favour while maintaining their status as global reserve and have other countries shoulder the cost/burdens of such. The threat of other actors trying to take advantage of the chaos they're causing to subvert the dollar is explicitly identified- which underlines why such extreme action re: Venezuela.


So it seems like less of left hand not talking to right, and moreso an extreme example of trying to have their cake and eat it too backing them into a corner where some actions have seemingly contradictory first order consequences

Good catch. I remember when Miran was nominated Chair of Trump’s Council of Economic Advisors a year ago. He was a student of the late Martin Feldstein, a renowned Harvard economist whom Mark Carney often spoke with not only while he was studying at Harvard but years later when he was governor play BOC, BOE and other global financial interactions. Feldstein spoke about global fiscal imbalance often, and no doubt this is where Miran focused much of his energy, His paper makes for a very interesting read. I look at it through the lens of global economic introspection around the 2008 global (US-driven) recession and how that shaped future US (and by association, influenced global) economic development.

An interesting look back to 2008/2009, in this case via a 2009 BIS (Bank for International Settlements) post-conference paper with both Feldstein and Carney as contributors, discussing economic instability of the day and future means to address uncertainty and monetary policies in inflationary times. BIS Paper 45 (Wolf, Goldstein, Carney, et al.) Global economic trade imbalance was veiled in the discussions, but it wasn't invisible.

I think it’s clear that Miran’s strategy was integrated notably into extant US fiscal policy, but I don’t think that it was implemented as purely as he intended/planned (60% tariffs in China and 10% on everyone else) became quickly forgotten ranges/goals, and the purity of resolving imbalances, such as they were seen to be, rapidly became diluted by other factors, notably ‘hegemonic security.’

I think many of the risks that the Sprott Business School team assessed are in fact happening…I think that Moran undervalued the time it would take US manufacturing to take up the mission to replace other manufacturing and I do think the US dollar is at risk of if not falling as the global reserve, at least to a notable weakening as such.

 

[ytz]

I found this summary of the Miran paper that's been guiding the right hand so far. Helped me to avoid getting lost in the weeds with a full re-read

https://sprott.carleton.ca/up-our-g...ck-Summary-and-Analysis-of-Mirans-article.pdf

Basically they're walking an incredibly thin line on the tariff and trade side to manipulate currencies in their favour while maintaining their status as global reserve and have other countries shoulder the cost/burdens of such. The threat of other actors trying to take advantage of the chaos they're causing to subvert the dollar is explicitly identified- which underlines why such extreme action re: Venezuela.


So it seems like less of left hand not talking to right, and moreso an extreme example of trying to have their cake and eat it too backing them into a corner where some actions have seemingly contradictory first order consequences

Very hard to maintain reserve currency status and not run trade deficits. That's how dollars are exported. If the world needs to buy more US goods, they would be returning the dollars that are abroad. I wonder how they square the circle.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Very hard to maintain reserve currency status and not run trade deficits. That's how dollars are exported. If the world needs to buy more US goods, they would be returning the dollars that are abroad. I wonder how they square the circle.

Military equipment exports?

 

[The Bread Guy]

Meanwhile, at the U.S. Embassy in Ottawa, some protesters are pissed at Team America, while some go "WTF?"

Protesters in Canada hold different opinions of Nicolás Maduro

OTTAWA — As a number of countries condemn the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by the United States, protesters in front of the U.S. embassy in Ottawa on Sunday called for the federal government to support the right to self-determination for the Venezuelan people and for the U.S. to...

ca.news.yahoo.com

Point ....

versus counterpoint.

 

[brihard]

Meanwhile, at the U.S. Embassy in Ottawa, some protesters are pissed at Team America, while some go "WTF?"

Protesters in Canada hold different opinions of Nicolás Maduro

OTTAWA — As a number of countries condemn the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by the United States, protesters in front of the U.S. embassy in Ottawa on Sunday called for the federal government to support the right to self-determination for the Venezuelan people and for the U.S. to...

ca.news.yahoo.com

Point ....
View attachment 97577
versus counterpoint.
View attachment 97578

It’s Ottawa. If it’s a weekend, there’s a protest somewhere.

It can be entirely congruent to be happy about the removal and arrest of Maduro in general terms, and at the same time opposed to further US aggression and militarism given their explicitly stated intent for Venezuela and signalled course of action thus far. I will give Trump credit for at least being utterly forthright about what he actually wants and is doing here. Dispensing with the fig leaf saves a few steps.

 

[brihard]

Some of the latest docs ....

Unsealed indictment reveals charges against Nicolás Maduro and his wife

Indictment accuses Venezuelan president of running a ‘corrupt’ government fuelled by a drug-trafficking operation that flooded US with cocaine

www.theguardian.com

How cocaine and corruption led to the indictment of Maduro

A newly unsealed U.S. Justice Department indictment accuses captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro of running a 'corrupt, illegitimate government' fueled by an extensive drug-trafficking operation that flooded the U.S. with thousands of tons of cocaine.

www.ctvnews.ca

https://twitter.com/x/status/2007428087143686611

Thanks for this. I read the indictment last night.

Odds are they have him dead to rights on drug importation conspiracy, and I believe their domestic criminal law allows the prosecution of that for someone who operated totally overseas. The indictment notes others at lower levels who have already been convicted at trial or pled guilty in the same overall enterprise in past years.

“Narco-terrorism conspiracy”… Not super clear what that is.

“Possession of machine gun or destructive device” and another count of conspiracy regarding same? That’s uh… Maybe a bit of a stretch. It sure how they’re going to argue the U.S.’ domestic firearms law extends extraterritorially like that. Both offenses seem tied to the drug importation conspiracy. Seeing them prove Maduro possessed a machine gun in a way contrary to U.S. law will be interesting.

The judge assigned to this case is apparently very experienced and very no- nonsense, and has ruled adversely to some of the Trump administration’s questionable cases previously. DOJ will need to have their ducks in a row.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Well, it didn't take long for Team Maduro to blame "the globalists": this from VEN's Veep/Acting Prez according to ISR media ....

And for those nay-sayers who don't believe ISR media, or think they're exaggerating, Iran's state media makes the same claim from the thrown-into-the-breech-veep https://archive.is/M8wpG