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2025 U.S. - Venezuela conflict

I don't know why diplomatic immunity keeps coming up here. It's not a factor for Maduro. I've been very clear on that.
And mine was a comment about that. And all the related objections people want to insert that distinguish Maduro from any common criminal.

The template being used out there for what many people objecting have to say goes like this: "Maduro is a bad guy who deserves everything he gets, BUT...". Too much of it is just situational politics; plenty of people are having their support for similar past actions thrown back in their faces just as they have on other vexing matters like drone assassinations and air strikes and support for the trouble-making countries of the world.

There are norms (legal or otherwise) we create to protect liberal institutions, but norms are breached when they're unreasonable and frustration mounts sufficiently. Then some people feel the need to defend the unreasonable part - in some cases merely because of who is doing the breaching, because their past comments are at odd with their present ones - instead of starting the negotiation to preserve the reasonable parts, and that merely antagonizes those already frustrated because they have already cast aside pure "law is the law" straight-jackets. It's OK to undo the oppressors of the world without assuming it has to mean every prominent political leader is fair game, and so to rearrange matters to make that more than just ostensibly permissible.

We are awash in problems that can apparently only be solved by lengthy costly difficult often unsuccessful (high bar) processes. Either people in general will have to submit to all the flavours of disorder, or the rules will have to bend enough to placate them (my preferred CoA), or the rules will be broken irretrievably.
 
It’s Ottawa. If it’s a weekend, there’s a protest somewhere.

It can be entirely congruent to be happy about the removal and arrest of Maduro in general terms, and at the same time opposed to further US aggression and militarism given their explicitly stated intent for Venezuela and signalled course of action thus far. I will give Trump credit for at least being utterly forthright about what he actually wants and is doing here. Dispensing with the fig leaf saves a few steps.

Weird take to be pro-Maduro though. But tankies gonna tankie I guess. So many of them aren't so much opposed to authoritarianism and imperialism as they are opposed to American authoritarianism and imperialism. They are okay if anybody else does it.
 
Weird take to be pro-Maduro though. But tankies gonna tankie I guess. So many of them aren't so much opposed to authoritarianism and imperialism as they are opposed to American authoritarianism and imperialism. They are okay if anybody else does it.
Actually being pro Maduro is distinctly stupid, for sure. To hell with that guy.
 
From the Econosmist:

....In December America declared a blockade on Venezuelan shipments ferried by blacklisted tankers; it then seized one of them. Exports have since cratered and the volume of Venezuelan crude floating on idle tankers has hit multi-year highs. Venezuela is also short of naphtha—a dilutant it needs to make its super-gloopy crude transportable—which is no longer coming through from Russia. Unless the blockade is lifted, which depends on political and military developments, Venezuela’s production will have to be curtailed further, to perhaps less than 700,000 b/d.

Output might recover in a few months if there is a smooth political transition and American sanctions on Venezuela, blockade included, are lifted (a big “if”). Basic maintenance and repairs might push the country’s crude output to 1.2m b/d by the end of 2026, estimates Kpler, a data firm. That would still be some way short of the country’s maximum potential output, however, and leave it a little behind Libya, the world’s 18th-largest producer. To pump more, Venezuela would need to overcome three problems: a dire need for funds, a shortage of labour and a saturated global market.

Rystad Energy, a consultancy, estimates that $110bn in capital expenditure on exploration and production alone would be required to bring the country’s output back to where it was 15 years ago—twice the amount America’s oil majors combined invested worldwide in 2024. Mr Trump seems to think those firms would rush to sign big cheques. Chevron, which is already present in Venezuela and exporting some 200,000 b/d to America under a sanctions waiver, may well expand its operations. But others have not forgotten the pains of the past. The success of Mr Trump’s plans is hardly guaranteed. He will depart the White House in just over three years, and may lose interest before then. So far American majors have remained silent on the president’s call to arms. Nor are global commodity traders “in the starting blocks”, says Jean-François Lambert, a consultant. Banks and insurers, which would be needed to finance and secure shipments, would be even slower to return.....


I've got a subscription. Just posting a relevant portion of the article. Hope we can stop with the Chicken Little routine that Canadian oil is suddenly finished.
 
From the Econosmist:




I've got a subscription. Just posting a relevant portion of the article. Hope we can stop with the Chicken Little routine that Canadian oil is suddenly finished.
Who’s the ‘we’ that’s being ‘chicken little’ on the oil question? I think we all understand the short term risk to be moderate and manageable, and that the longer term risk of substitution about the 0.5 MBPD level is quite long term indeed and will involve great expense.

Doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be acknowledging the vulnerability and changed circumstances immediately and acting on them promptly, but carefully and deliberately.
 

TACO is not a valid label.

Nah. Very valid label. He only follows through where the risk is extremely low. All the Chinese had to do was threaten rare earths exports for a bit and Trump caved completely on all the Chinese tariffs. The administration has zero nuance in their understanding of escalation dominance. That's why they've largely decided not to compete with Russia and China.
 
Nah. Very valid label. He only follows through where the risk is extremely low. All the Chinese had to do was threaten rare earths exports for a bit and Trump caved completely on all the Chinese tariffs. The administration has zero nuance in their understanding of escalation dominance. That's why they've largely decided not to compete with Russia and China.
How do you factor the Maduro event with it's impact on Russia and China in the western hemisphere?
 
Nah. Very valid label. He only follows through where the risk is extremely low. All the Chinese had to do was threaten rare earths exports for a bit and Trump caved completely on all the Chinese tariffs. The administration has zero nuance in their understanding of escalation dominance. That's why they've largely decided not to compete with Russia and China.
Or, it might be that he TACOs where the risk is very high.
 
How do you factor the Maduro event with it's impact on Russia and China in the western hemisphere?

Zero chance of any reprisal from Russia or China directly. If China openly threatened actual consequences, Maduro would probably be on a flight home right now. Mostly for China they don't really care that, that much. It's more annoyance than massive strategic impact. Right now, their intelligence posts haven't shut down. Oil deliveries are slightly impacted.
 
“Narco-terrorism conspiracy”… Not super clear what that is.
You tell me, and we will both know...
“Possession of machine gun or destructive device” and another count of conspiracy regarding same? That’s uh… Maybe a bit of a stretch. It sure how they’re going to argue the U.S.’ domestic firearms law extends extraterritorially like that. Both offenses seem tied to the drug importation conspiracy. Seeing them prove Maduro possessed a machine gun in a way contrary to U.S. law will be interesting.
During OIF ATF proceeded on a number of domestic firearms laws that occurred in Iraq...
The main aspect of those however was a US firearm - and a US Person (Citizen or Legal Resident Alien) - which Maduro may meet #1 depending on firearm(s) in question, he clearly is not a US Person.
He hadn't been indicted in absentia - so it can't be a Felon with a firearm either.

The judge assigned to this case is apparently very experienced and very no- nonsense, and has ruled adversely to some of the Trump administration’s questionable cases previously. DOJ will need to have their ducks in a row.
Will be interesting to see play out.
 
Zero chance of any reprisal from Russia or China directly. If China openly threatened actual consequences, Maduro would probably be on a flight home right now.
China’s reduction in U.S. soy purchases in 3, 2, 1…
 
Weird take to be pro-Maduro though. But tankies gonna tankie I guess. So many of them aren't so much opposed to authoritarianism and imperialism as they are opposed to American authoritarianism and imperialism. They are okay if anybody else does it.
<Lesbians for Hamas enters the chat ...>

Just like the old days of the Cold War - many Western disarmament groups were oddly silent about disarming USSR 1.0 & Co.
 
<Lesbians for Hamas enters the chat ...>

Just like the old days of the Cold War - many Western disarmament groups were oddly silent about disarming USSR 1.0 & Co.
Was it Lenin or Stalin that coined the term "useful fools"?

And more than a few people in the West fell in love with Chairman Mao and good old Pol Pot.
 
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