2025 U.S. - Venezuela conflict

[Brad Sallows]

So, what, they had one DEA agent along to try and give it legitimacy. It will be interesting to see how they try to massage domestic law enforcement's authority to arrest a foreign national on foreign soil. They will probably quote the 'because we can' section.

Prompts the question of why one is not sufficient.

How many is the usual number of tourists the regular players like to drag along on that kind of op?

 

[Eaglelord17]

I wouldn’t believe a word from Cuba

The Cubans are Maduro’s version of the Swiss guard. It makes sense, if I was in his shoes there would be no way would I be trusting my life to the Venezuelans.

 

[Kirkhill]

Interesting Geo political synopsis …

THE MEDVEDEV COROLLARY

Trump as Jerry Pournelle's "The Mercenary" and the postulation that the liberal order only survives due to occasional application of doses of benevolent illiberalism.

Made possible only by people in power that don't GAF.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

1989, shortly before they went to Panama for Noriega et Al. I can't find any reference that suggests US courts held contrary opinions.

---

https://www.justice.gov/file/151241/dl?inline

Extraterritorial Effect of the Posse Comitatus Act
November 3, 1989

Memorandum Opinion For The Assistant To The President For National Security Affairs

You have asked for our advice whether the Posse Comitatus Act, 18U.S.C. § 1385, applies outside the territory of the United States. We conclude that it does not. Neither the language, history, nor legislative history of the Act suggests that Congress intended for the Act to apply extraterritorially. Under these circumstances, established rules of statutory construction impose a presumption that the Act is to be construed as having only domestic effect. Such a construction is necessary to enable criminal laws with extraterritorial effect to be executed and to avoid unwarranted restraints on the President’s constitutional powers. Additional legislation and accompanying Department of Defense regulations authorizing certain types of military assistance to civilian authorities contain some suggestion that restrictions on military assistance enumerated therein apply outside the land area of the United States. We believe, however, that the better view is that these rules must be read consistently with other provisions in the same legislation providing that no limitations beyond those imposed by the Posse Comitatus Act were intended to be enacted. The scope of the regulations will be subject to some uncertainty, however, until they are amended to expressly state these limits on their scope.

So, we don't think it applies outside the US, however, we could be wrong?

 

[HavokFour]

Already started fumbling.

Justice Dept. Drops Claim That Venezuela’s ‘Cartel de los Soles’ Is an Actual Group

Last year, before capturing President Nicolás Maduro, the Trump administration designated a Venezuelan slang term for drug corruption in the military as a terrorist organization and said he led it.

www.nytimes.com

 

[QV]

With Machado's covert departure from VEN in December 2025, one must wonder if she was hustled out with CIA assistance because of the upcoming Maduro raid in order to preserve her for future electoral candidacy. Had she remained, she might have been quickly killed by Maduro loyalists after Maduro was apprehended to prevent her coming to power.

 

[brihard]

Already started fumbling.

Justice Dept. Drops Claim That Venezuela’s ‘Cartel de los Soles’ Is an Actual Group

Last year, before capturing President Nicolás Maduro, the Trump administration designated a Venezuelan slang term for drug corruption in the military as a terrorist organization and said he led it.

www.nytimes.com

While Trump’s DOJ has an impressive ability to badly botch even basic prosecutions, they should be able to get a conviction for at least something on Maduro.

With Machado's covert departure from VEN in December 2025, one must wonder if she was hustled out with CIA assistance because of the upcoming Maduro raid in order to preserve her for future electoral candidacy. Had she remained, she might have been quickly killed by Maduro loyalists after Maduro was apprehended to prevent her coming to power.

That’s plausible. I wouldn’t make a bet either way on it.

 

[HavokFour]

While Trump’s DOJ has an impressive ability to badly botch even basic prosecutions, they should be able to get a conviction for at least something on Maduro.

Regardless, the DOJ should probably make extra sure the t's are crossed and i's dotted because the judge has a bit of a history of having 0 patience with games and nonsense.

92-year-old judge handling Maduro case ‘doesn’t give a s--t what anyone thinks about him’​

 

[KevinB]

So, we don't think it applies outside the US, however, we could be wrong?

Posse Comitatus Act is strictly a domestic restriction.
FBI, ATF etc are commonly used with SOTF personnel when the target is a LE Interest - but the potential threat level or other NLI require SMU forces.

 

[Blackadder1916]

So, we don't think it applies outside the US, however, we could be wrong?

There was one mention in a footnote to a ruling in the Noriega case that the issue had been raised by one of Noriega's co-defendants (Noriega wasn't the only Panamanian arrested and brought to the US following Operation Just BeCause*). Supposedly the other defendant brought up the issue but since he subsequently withdrew the motion, it was not considered and no opinion on it was made.


* I facetiously refer to OP JUST CAUSE this way because that was how some of my classmates (I was on the Officer Advanced Course at Fort Sam Houston at the time of the op) called it. A few of them had been stationed in Panama prior to the course, leaving for Texas as the invasion was beginning. During one of the numerous briefings that we received over the 6 months we were there, one of the American officers got quite agitated when the briefer described a destroyed building in one of the slides as a Panamanian Defence Force stronghold. She was quite forceful in correcting the briefer that the building had been an American warehouse used to temporarily store household goods (i.e., F&E) of pers who were posted out. Everything she owned, save for the baggage that she took on the plane, was destroyed when US Forces mistakenly destroyed the building. The US Government accepted no responsibility for her losses and since it was due to "war', it wasn't covered by insurance. She was still fighting with the army trying to get reimbursement when the course ended.

 

[GR66]

With Machado's covert departure from VEN in December 2025, one must wonder if she was hustled out with CIA assistance because of the upcoming Maduro raid in order to preserve her for future electoral candidacy. Had she remained, she might have been quickly killed by Maduro loyalists after Maduro was apprehended to prevent her coming to power.

Or....she was hustled out with CIA assistance because of the upcoming Maduro raid in order to prevent her from being on the ground to become the focus of a popular uprising to overthrow what is left of the Maduro regime.

An authoritarian like Vice President Rodriguez might be more willing to allow the Americans to come in an repair Venezuela's failing oil industry in return for remaining in power than a democratically elected and popularly supported Machado who might want to ensure that any profits from the oil industry go to the people of Venezuela rather than US oil companies.

 

[brihard]

Or....she was hustled out with CIA assistance because of the upcoming Maduro raid in order to prevent her from being on the ground to become the focus of a popular uprising to overthrow what is left of the Maduro regime.

An authoritarian like Vice President Rodriguez might be more willing to allow the Americans to come in an repair Venezuela's failing oil industry in return for remaining in power than a democratically elected and popularly supported Machado who might want to ensure that any profits from the oil industry go to the people of Venezuela rather than US oil companies.

Also very plausible.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Meanwhile, on the pop-cult front ....

Nike tracksuit worn by Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro sells out following capture

A photo posted by President Donald Trump showing Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro in US custody has gone viral, with the attention being on the Nike grey tracksuit Maduro is wearing in the snap.Maduro made headlines around the world at the weekend when he was captured by US forces and taken...

www.indy100.com

 

[Kirkhill]

In 2003, in order to achieve what Trump has done, the US amassed a coalition of the willing, thousands of aircraft and thousands of troops, spent months destroying infrastructure that took decades to rebuild, rendered millions of Iraqi soldiers, police and bureaucrats unemployed and unable to feed their families, reduced cities of unhappy regime supporters to rubble and took 9 months to find Saddam and capture him.

This time they turned out the lights as they were going "feet-dry", spent an hour or so getting to the compound, an hour and a half in the compound and another hour or so getting out of the country.

And turned the lights back on as they left.

They left all political structures intact and went to the 2nd in the chain of command and asked what they wanted to do now.

The people of Venezuela are no worse off today than they were before-hand. Their food distribution system, such as it was still works. And there is the possibility thinks might improve.

Trump still has a functional command amd control system with which to negotiate.

And where will he go next?
Greenland? Or will he launch his newly arrived SF team in England at Tehran or Moscow? Or Kyiv?

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Or....she was hustled out with CIA assistance because of the upcoming Maduro raid in order to prevent her from being on the ground to become the focus of a popular uprising to overthrow what is left of the Maduro regime.

Actually it was a civilian rescue group made up of retired US servicemembers. More can be found here:

María Corina Machado - Grey Bull Rescue

greybullrescue.org

 

[brihard]

Actually it was a civilian rescue group made up of retired US servicemembers. More can be found here:

María Corina Machado - Grey Bull Rescue

greybullrescue.org

Say that again but more slowly.

 

[The Bread Guy]

One way to butter up POTUS47, I guess ...

Venezuela detains journalists and seizes communication devices after Maduro’s removal

Thirteen of those detained were released according to the country’s National Union of Press Workers

www.theguardian.com

Venezuelan security forces detain journalists from foreign news organisations

Venezuelans describe their fear of speaking out as 14 media workers are detained and police check people's social media.

www.bbc.com

 

[HavokFour]

The Dutch are putting a pause on working with the US in the Caribbean.

Dutch Navy Suspends Joint Anti-Drug Operations with US in Caribbean | Ukraine news - #Mezha

The Dutch Navy temporarily halts joint anti-drug operations with the US in the Caribbean due to differing approaches to stopping suspicious vessels near Venezuela.

mezha.net

The Royal Netherlands Navy is temporarily suspending joint actions with the United States in the fight against drug trafficking in the Caribbean Sea. The decision was announced by the Dutch Ministry of Defence, citing different approaches to stopping suspected vessels in international waters off Venezuela.

According to the ministry, the U.S. policy of attacking vessels departing from Venezuelan ports leads to the deaths of people without due process. Because of these actions, the Netherlands has decided to suspend previously agreed cooperative operations. Previously, the Dutch Navy closely coordinated actions with the U.S. Coast Guard in the fight against drug smuggling in the region, where the main routes pass through the islands of Aruba, Curaçao, and Bonaire, part of the Kingdom of the Netherlands.

 

[Czech_pivo]

The Dutch are putting a pause on working with the US in the Caribbean.

Dutch Navy Suspends Joint Anti-Drug Operations with US in Caribbean | Ukraine news - #Mezha

The Dutch Navy temporarily halts joint anti-drug operations with the US in the Caribbean due to differing approaches to stopping suspicious vessels near Venezuela.

mezha.net

Have we announced anything similar?

 

[CBH99]

Happening in real time right now...

U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Seen Pursuing Fleeing Russian Oil Tanker For First Time

The pursuit of the tanker Marinera comes as the U.S. continues pouring aviation assets into the U.K. ahead of a potential boarding effort.

www.twz.com