2025 U.S. - Venezuela conflict

[Czech_pivo]

Add in labour and union associated violence...

Those are all listed in the link.

On my Mother's side, Polish American from Dearborn, MI, I had a Great Uncle who marched in the 1932 Ford Massacre. He had a hard time dealing with the fact that one of his nephews took a job with the Dearborn Police Department in the 1970s. He eventually became the Chief Detective for the department.

Ford Hunger March - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I have seen some posts online, similar to Maduro prior to his capture, with cartels or their supporters almost wishing the US Military would engage with them. I don't think either side truly comprehends the level violence each other are capable of. I would expect the US Military be victorious but I think the violence that will erupt on US soil will be savage and brutal.

I don't know if you watch the series Lioness, but I highly recommend it.

 

[QV]

I have seen some posts online, similar to Maduro prior to his capture, with cartels or their supporters almost wishing the US Military would engage with them. I don't think either side truly comprehends the level violence each other are capable of. I would expect the US Military be victorious but I think the violence that will erupt on US soil will be savage and brutal.

I don't know if you watch the series Lioness, but I highly recommend it.

My guess: If the US decides to start taking out cartels via military action - the cartel hierarchy will be thoroughly and quickly destroyed. It wouldn't surprise me if the US surprise launched a massive coordinated strike on all the major cartel higher leadership and decapitates everyone of them inside a 24hr period. There will not be some insurgent cartel uprising in the US. There may be isolated incidents of retribution that will be locally painful for a brief moment but they will all be quickly and violently extinguished. The criminals who remain at large will look for other ways to earn money and carry on. Large scale criminal cartel enterprises that influence governments and terrorize populations will cease to be a thing (they're leadership circle will keep getting deleted). Those who haven't been killed will go underground (not be so overt as they are now) and try to continue doing what they are doing but on a much smaller scale to avoid being detected or killed. This may embolden local governments to take greater action against them rather than the tacit approval/corruption enablement that is the COA of today.

The major problem I see with this plan are the swaths of Americans/others vacationing in cartel owned all-inclusive resorts, or the significant number of American expats living in Mexico who will be juicy targets for retribution/kidnapping. Surprise can not be pulled off if the US sought Mexican government assistance (to secure these sights/people) as there would most surely be leaks, therefore these communities would be at severe risk.

 

[Furniture]

My guess: If the US decides to start taking out cartels via military action - the cartel hierarchy will be thoroughly and quickly destroyed. It wouldn't surprise me if the US surprise launched a massive coordinated strike on all the major cartel higher leadership and decapitates everyone of them inside a 24hr period. There will not be some insurgent cartel uprising in the US. There may be isolated incidents of retribution that will be locally painful for a brief moment but they will all be quickly and violently extinguished. The criminals who remain at large will look for other ways to earn money and carry on. Large scale criminal cartel enterprises that influence governments and terrorize populations will cease to be a thing (they're leadership circle will keep getting deleted). Those who haven't been killed will go underground (not be so overt as they are now) and try to continue doing what they are doing but on a much smaller scale to avoid being detected or killed. This may embolden local governments to take greater action against them rather than the tacit approval/corruption enablement that is the COA of today.

I think you're too optimistic, cartels have lost senior people before and have become more violent. As long as there is demand for drugs, somebody will supply those drugs, and secure their supply/monopoly with violence.

The major problem I see with this plan are the swaths of Americans/others vacationing in cartel owned all-inclusive resorts, or the significant number of American expats living in Mexico who will be juicy targets for retribution/kidnapping. Surprise can not be pulled off if the US sought Mexican government assistance (to secure these sights/people) as there would most surely be leaks, therefore these communities would be at severe risk.

I 100% agree, but suspect it wouldn't be limited to Americans and wouldn't be limited to Mexico.

 

[QV]

I think you're too optimistic, cartels have lost senior people before and have become more violent. As long as there is demand for drugs, somebody will supply those drugs, and secure their supply/monopoly with violence.


I 100% agree, but suspect it wouldn't be limited to Americans and wouldn't be limited to Mexico.

It's not a matter of losing a few senior people. It's more like losing the top 25% of the whole organization overnight.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

I think you're too optimistic, cartels have lost senior people before and have become more violent. As long as there is demand for drugs, somebody will supply those drugs, and secure their supply/monopoly with violence.


I 100% agree, but suspect it wouldn't be limited to Americans and wouldn't be limited to Mexico.

Singapore seems to run a very successful counternarcotics program. The Taliban also did a great job pre-911 and even got financially rewarded for their work.

Singapore executes three men for drug offences over two days

This brings the country's total number of executions to 17 this year - the highest since 2003.

www.bbc.com

Learning Lessons from the Taliban Opium Ban | Transnational Institute

A response to: "Where Have All The Flowers Gone? Evaluation Of The Taliban Crackdown Against Opium Poppy Cultivation In Afghanistan", by Graham Farrell and John Thorne Special Focus: The Taliban and Opium - www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/09553959

www.tni.org

Any successful narcotics eradication program is going to require a lot of boots to the face, authoritarianism, and a whole lot of State-sponsored FAFO.

Singapore generally accepts living in a heavily policed society with the tradeoff being it's one of the safest places in the World. I know people that lived there that let their elementary school children ride the subway to School, it's that safe.

It's also a place where the police will be fully within their rights to beat you up for spitting in the street so there is a tradeoff for that.

 

[brihard]

I have been arguing for a while now that if we don't mow our lawn and keep our weeds in check then the risk is that our neighbour will do it for us.

Trump has demonstrated that he can mow anybody's lawn anytime and he is willing to do it. And likely claim customary use as a result.

A bit of a giddyup to 5%?

If the concern is how the Trump administration views Canada’s drug situation, that’s not a 5% NATO spending issue, it’s police and CBSA.

My guess: If the US decides to start taking out cartels via military action - the cartel hierarchy will be thoroughly and quickly destroyed. It wouldn't surprise me if the US surprise launched a massive coordinated strike on all the major cartel higher leadership and decapitates everyone of them inside a 24hr period. There will not be some insurgent cartel uprising in the US. There may be isolated incidents of retribution that will be locally painful for a brief moment but they will all be quickly and violently extinguished. The criminals who remain at large will look for other ways to earn money and carry on. Large scale criminal cartel enterprises that influence governments and terrorize populations will cease to be a thing (they're leadership circle will keep getting deleted). Those who haven't been killed will go underground (not be so overt as they are now) and try to continue doing what they are doing but on a much smaller scale to avoid being detected or killed. This may embolden local governments to take greater action against them rather than the tacit approval/corruption enablement that is the COA of today.

The major problem I see with this plan are the swaths of Americans/others vacationing in cartel owned all-inclusive resorts, or the significant number of American expats living in Mexico who will be juicy targets for retribution/kidnapping. Surprise can not be pulled off if the US sought Mexican government assistance (to secure these sights/people) as there would most surely be leaks, therefore these communities would be at severe risk.

I think you're too optimistic, cartels have lost senior people before and have become more violent. As long as there is demand for drugs, somebody will supply those drugs, and secure their supply/monopoly with violence.


I 100% agree, but suspect it wouldn't be limited to Americans and wouldn't be limited to Mexico.

So, bear in mind that the cartels are production and wholesale. Yes, some have usurped political and territorial control in their home countries. In the U.S. and Canada, they’re working with groups like the major outlaw motorcycle gangs (HA, Outlaws etc) to distribute. The actual street level distribution - which Carrie’s most of the risk of violence and of crashing into police - is mostly by local street level gangs. We don’t have bands of cartel gunmen running around slinging dope, and taking direction directly from the gangs in Central America.

 

[Halifax Tar]

It's also a place where the police will be fully within their rights to beat you up for spitting in the street so there is a tradeoff for that.

I accept your terms.

 

[Furniture]

Singapore seems to run a very successful counternarcotics program. The Taliban also did a great job pre-911 and even got financially rewarded for their work.

Singapore executes three men for drug offences over two days

This brings the country's total number of executions to 17 this year - the highest since 2003.

www.bbc.com

Learning Lessons from the Taliban Opium Ban | Transnational Institute

A response to: "Where Have All The Flowers Gone? Evaluation Of The Taliban Crackdown Against Opium Poppy Cultivation In Afghanistan", by Graham Farrell and John Thorne Special Focus: The Taliban and Opium - www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/09553959

www.tni.org

Any successful narcotics eradication program is going to require a lot of boots to the face, authoritarianism, and a whole lot of State-sponsored FAFO.

Singapore generally accepts living in a heavily policed society with the tradeoff being it's one of the safest places in the World. I know people that lived there that let their elementary school children ride the subway to School, it's that safe.

It's also a place where the police will be fully within their rights to beat you up for spitting in the street so there is a tradeoff for that.

It's a beautiful place and I love visiting, but I doubt there aren't many parallels between Mexico/Central America and Singapore.

I doubt the people of Mexico are willing to live under Singapore-like conditions.

So, bear in mind that the cartels are production and wholesale. Yes, some have usurped political and territorial control in their home countries. In the U.S. and Canada, they’re working with groups like the major outlaw motorcycle gangs (HA, Outlaws etc) to distribute. The actual street level distribution - which Carrie’s most of the risk of violence and of crashing into police - is mostly by local street level gangs. We don’t have bands of cartel gunmen running around slinging dope, and taking direction directly from the gangs in Central America.

Fair point, but they do still have a presence/influence, and would likely find a way to make it painful for ordinary people.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

I accept your terms.

I personally think the drug issue is one of the biggest open sores our society is facing.

It's a scourge on our society and needs to be attacked head-on.

My family recently moved for work and just last week I was working nightshift and received a phone call from my panicked wife who was woken up out of bed by a commotion outside our residence.

There were two street people, one of whom looked like they were in a bad way, trying to force their way into our house. My wife was home alone with my daughter and was frightened. These people were aggressively slamming on the door.

I called 911 from my work and told my wife to also call 911. Turns out one of them was ODing and they happened to be related to the older lady who lives beside us and were looking for help. She came over the next day and apologized to us explaining that one of the people was her child and is very troubled.

Now the Police arrived within 10 minutes and took them away but my wife was very scared. A woman home alone with a young baby with people trying to break in to the house.

As a result of this incident, my wife asked me the other day to teach her how to use a firearm.

 

[brihard]

It's a beautiful place and I love visiting, but I doubt there aren't many parallels between Mexico/Central America and Singapore.

I doubt the people of Mexico are willing to live under Singapore-like conditions.


Fair point, but they do still have a presence/influence, and would likely find a way to make it painful for ordinary people.

Probably not. Most ordinary people are never directly affected by nor particularly notice this stuff. Remember that drug trafficking is still first and foremost a business. A campaign of retributive terrorism in North America would be very bad business and wouldn’t improve their position at all. The trick where you’re on the wrong side of total force overmatch it to get sneakier, not more belligerent.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

Probably not. Most ordinary people are never directly affected by nor particularly notice this stuff. Remember that drug trafficking is still first and foremost a business. A campaign of retributive terrorism in North America would be very bad business and wouldn’t improve their position at all. The trick where you’re on the wrong side of total force overmatch it to get sneakier, not more belligerent.

Great example of this is the evolution of 1% Biker Gangs. Hells Angels never flaunt their colors anymore and clubhouses aren't publicly displayed anymore. Secrecy and operational security are the name of the game.

 

[Kirkhill]

If the concern is how the Trump administration views Canada’s drug situation, that’s not a 5% NATO spending issue, it’s police and CBSA.

If the administration's assessment is correct and our mutual enemies are engaging us by hybrid means, indulging in political, economic and criminal attacks, as well as psyops, info-ops, intops, cyberops and EW and proxy wars in conventional domains then, absolutely civil authorities are actively engaged in defence activities and their efforts should be cosidered alongside the military efforts.

I believe there are something like 70,000 LEOs in Canada, or roughly the same strength as the CAF's regular force strength.

Our enemies are not giving us the luxury of a clear demarcation between the customary laws of armed conflict and civil law. In fact if they can force us to bring the war back to our people in their neighbourhoods, disrupting the normal pace of life then they have won another round.

I believe the policing budget at all levels, and including the courts, is something like 22 BCAD or so, about 0.7% of GDP. That was comparable to the 0.7% foreign aid target and perilously close to what we were actually spending on defence before we were encouraged to up the ante.

3.5% military.
1.5% dual purpose.
Policing is absolutely dual purpose.
As are emergency services.

 

[Kirkhill]

Probably not. Most ordinary people are never directly affected by nor particularly notice this stuff. Remember that drug trafficking is still first and foremost a business. A campaign of retributive terrorism in North America would be very bad business and wouldn’t improve their position at all. The trick where you’re on the wrong side of total force overmatch it to get sneakier, not more belligerent.

And if the drug trade has been weaponized? Retribution for opium?

 

[Halifax Tar]

I personally think the drug issue is one of the biggest open sores our society is facing.

It's a scourge on our society and needs to be attacked head-on.

My family recently moved for work and just last week I was working nightshift and received a phone call from my panicked wife who was woken up out of bed by a commotion outside our residence.

There were two street people, one of whom looked like they were in a bad way, trying to force their way into our house. My wife was home alone with my daughter and was frightened. These people were aggressively slamming on the door.

I called 911 from my work and told my wife to also call 911. Turns out one of them was ODing and they happened to be related to the older lady who lives beside us and were looking for help. She came over the next day and apologized to us explaining that one of the people was her child and is very troubled.

Now the Police arrived within 10 minutes and took them away but my wife was very scared. A woman home alone with a young baby with people trying to break in to the house.

As a result of this incident, my wife asked me the other day to teach her how to use a firearm.

I'm sorry your wife to endure that. 10 mins it too long to have to wait for police response, unless you are very rural.

 

[brihard]

I'm sorry your wife to endure that. 10 mins it too long to have to wait for police response, unless you are very rural.

That’s an adorably urban thing to say.

 

[OldSolduer]

It's also a place where the police will be fully within their rights to beat you up for spitting in the street so there is a tradeoff for that.

Singapore sentenced an American car thief to caning back in the 90s. I wonder if they still do that?

 

[GR66]

There are questions being raised about how Venezuela's debts with China - which are currently being paid down through oil shipments - will be affected by the US taking control over Venezuela's oil exports. This is in addition to Chinese entitlements to 4.4 billion barrels of Venezuela's oil reserves. China's other investments in Venezuela - ports, railroads, telecom, etc. are potentially at risk too.

MSN

 

[Kirkhill]

There are questions being raised about how Venezuela's debts with China - which are currently being paid down through oil shipments - will be affected by the US taking control over Venezuela's oil exports. This is in addition to Chinese entitlements to 4.4 billion barrels of Venezuela's oil reserves. China's other investments in Venezuela - ports, railroads, telecom, etc. are potentially at risk too.

MSN

How about these guys?

Oil Firms Say Venezuela Owes Them Billions Over Earlier Investments

Companies like Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips say that Venezuela owes them billions of dollars for confiscating their assets two decades ago.

www.nytimes.com

 

[GR66]

How about these guys?

Oil Firms Say Venezuela Owes Them Billions Over Earlier Investments

Companies like Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips say that Venezuela owes them billions of dollars for confiscating their assets two decades ago.

www.nytimes.com

I image that after all the foreign debts have been paid there will be nothing left for the people of Venezuela