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2026 US-Denmark Tensions/End of NATO

The only scenario where the US actually "takes" Greenland militarily is this:

-Greenland petitions for and obtains independence, and Greenland then falls willingly or unwillingly under the influence and/or control of Russia or China.

The chance of this is somewhere slightly above zero. It might be better for Greenland to be a protectorate of the US if they decide to break off the EU.
 
Probably still being figured out, and those who know will STFU about it.

There’s still a reasonably non-batshit off-ramp for Trump on this. He can just say a bunch of dumb noises and include that he ‘got NATO to take security interests with Greenland seriously, all he had to do was threaten to do it his way’ - and then he can change gears and chase a different squirrel. Damage is still done, but that would mitigate it and let him save face by pretending he got what he wanted.

If he continues the brinksmanship in the face of actual NATO troop deployments, that will tell us a lot.

What might make this a bit diffrent is that this won’t be a NATO troop deployment. It’s at the very least a multi national deployment or a EU led deployment. Not sure the US is keen on something like that.
 
What might make this a bit diffrent is that this won’t be a NATO troop deployment. It’s at the very least a multi national deployment or a EU led deployment. Not sure the US is keen on something like that.
Sorry, you’re right- not a NATO deployment per se, but a deployment by NATO members on NATO member soil.
 
Sorry, you’re right- not a NATO deployment per se, but a deployment by NATO members on NATO member soil.
Yeah, I wasn’t trying to be pedantic but it’s telling that this would be a European led non NATO deployment under the guise of appeasement but really a message for the state that leads NATO…
 
Can NATO mount an occupation of Greenland without the US?
 
Can NATO mount an occupation of Greenland without the US?
If it needs all the current members to agree, not likely. If a new Euro-centric TF tried it? Maaaaaaaaybe, but the senior partner may not like it (even if he could, like others smarter than me have said, messsge that as a “they finally did their job only after I got them to” win of sorts).
 
Can NATO mount an occupation of Greenland without the US?
Other NATO countries can certainly deploy and sustain forces there if they choose. The U.S. isn’t the only NATO member that has sustained expeditionary ops for years.

Does that mean they would win if the U.S. actually decided to go to war over Denmark and knock out any forces sent to oppose them? Probably not. But they can certainly sustain enough of a force there that that would be the only way for aTrump to get what he wants, forcing him to weigh the domestic political costs of such a COA.
 
Yeah, I wasn’t trying to be pedantic but it’s telling that this would be a European led non NATO deployment under the guise of appeasement but really a message for the state that leads NATO…
I sure hope our European Prime Minister joins this exercise. I'd volunteer our western troops, they could use a break from all the balmy weather.


Also, this is a great opportunity to check if F35s have a kill switch after all.
 
Sorry, you’re right- not a NATO deployment per se, but a deployment by NATO members on NATO member soil.
Maybe they make if an official NATO deployment and appoint a US General in charge?

ROTFL
 
Other NATO countries can certainly deploy and sustain forces there if they choose. The U.S. isn’t the only NATO member that has sustained expeditionary ops for years.

Does that mean they would win if the U.S. actually decided to go to war over Denmark and knock out any forces sent to oppose them? Probably not. But they can certainly sustain enough of a force there that that would be the only way for aTrump to get what he wants, forcing him to weigh the domestic political costs of such a COA.

They could sustain it until the shooting started.
Then it's hard no.
 

Some of these clowns should not be involved in any foreign affairs…
I'd like to see if there is any linkage between those saying this and their belief in Creationism.
 
I sure hope our European Prime Minister joins this exercise. I'd volunteer our western troops, they could use a break from all the balmy weather.


Also, this is a great opportunity to check if F35s have a kill switch after all.
I'd send a mix of troops from a Regt' that has King Charles as their Colonel in Chief and some Van Doo's. Covers off both the UK/France in having a vested interest in their well being.
 
The only scenario where the US actually "takes" Greenland militarily is this:

-Greenland petitions for and obtains independence, and Greenland then falls willingly or unwillingly under the influence and/or control of Russia or China.

The chance of this is somewhere slightly above zero. It might be better for Greenland to be a protectorate of the US if they decide to break off the EU.
Everything I've heard is if they get indepence they want to join NATO and the EU.

They want nothing to do with the USA.

Before too long there would be ICE agents in Nuuk asking if they have American citizenship
 
I sure hope our European Prime Minister joins this exercise. I'd volunteer our western troops, they could use a break from all the balmy weather.
Shift NOREX or a piece of it to Greenland. Or a bunch of Rangers on exchange
 
Other NATO countries can certainly deploy and sustain forces there if they choose. The U.S. isn’t the only NATO member that has sustained expeditionary ops for years.

Does that mean they would win if the U.S. actually decided to go to war over Denmark and knock out any forces sent to oppose them? Probably not. But they can certainly sustain enough of a force there that that would be the only way for aTrump to get what he wants, forcing him to weigh the domestic political costs of such a COA.


Placing my bets today, and admitting that in this universe tomrrow is a complete unknown, I think that the real work is being done off camera by people saying the equivalent of "help me out here, you don't want to talk to the boss".

I think in that universe, where Carney is negotiating a long term relationship with a neighbour that we can't escape and who has no intention of moving away, Carney is probably not wrong to keep his powder dry and stay away from the negotiating table aslong as he can. Keep an eye on developments and let deeds show intent where we know that words are inconsequential and see what low cost opportunities there are to sweeten the pot.

I asked about Light Infantry Battalions falling in as the planned Light Infantry Regiment and was told that the battalions are employable today. There is already a plan in place to focus more effort on the Arctic.

I have stated before that I believe that our trade agreements with the US non-coincidentally occur at the same time as our military agreements. Trump has made specfic allusions to linking security and trade.

CUSMA needs to be renewed before Dominion Day (July 1st).
Concurrently that is the date by which Alberta has to submit a pipeline proposal.

Why do I feel that, for Canada, there will be a world before that day and a world after that day?

Would it be outlandish to see the CAF stand up a more robust JTFN at the 2 star level, equipped with the expressed intent to operate across our North and across borders? Something that could be put in the shop window in a short period of time?

Something that incorporates all the new sensor technology, that takes advantage of all the new naval and air platforms, that employs the beefed up Ranger corps as well as the Light Infantry Regiment and its enablers, and that can slot in with both the US 11th Abn in the west and the European JEF in the east?
 
Tears of joy(?) at the idea of being absorbed into the US.



So, not about security?

 
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