2026 US-Denmark Tensions/End of NATO

[QV]

Historically the U.S. has defended Europe because they considered Russian expansion and hegemony to be a strategic threat to U.S. interests. Denying them the ability to expand further into Europe was a ‘hold them there, so we don’t have to fight them here’ thing.

Ack - but now, since Europe with much US help has climbed out of WWII level of destruction, the EU is now more than capable of doing that and bearing the costs to do so.

 

[brihard]

Ack - but now, since Europe with much US help has climbed out of WWII level of destruction, the EU is now more than capable of doing that and bearing the costs to do so.

Absolutely. And that being the case, likely they’ll do so in a way that prioritizes their own security interests and concerns. That may not overlap how the U.S. wants to see things prioritized as fully as it once would have. This can be everything from where forces are postured, to what kit is bought from what manufacturers.

I’m sure the U.S. is aware of and has generally accepted this, at least quietly if not out loud.

 

[suffolkowner]

I hope we never have to find out, but as long as Putin is breathing I don't think we can discount the possibility.

Russia is losing 30k soldiers a month. A month. For many months. They have probably lost more than 1 million soldiers during the course of the war. They are sitting with sanctions from most of the western world on them, cut out of swift, isolated from the rest of the world other than China, India and Iran.

And there are no signs of cracks in the regime. There is no nation in Europe that I would put up against the Russians for capacity to suffer without breaking other than Poland. And that's just because the Poles know what happen when they lose wars.

China isn't willing to eat a nuke over what it can get for cheap.

Taiwan also isn't nuclear armed.

Russia will break eventually the problem is Putin does not think he has a way out that leaves him alive. He will continue until he is dead most likely. He can not afford those troops coming home. Who is Putin going to nuke? London, Paris, Berlin, Rome? And kill all the families of the oligarchs? Anything closer and he might as well just drop it on Moscow and St Petersburgh himself. Once he plays that ace there's no going back i dont think

 

[Altair]

Russia will break eventually the problem is Putin does not think he has a way out that leaves him alive. He will continue until he is dead most likely. He can not afford those troops coming home. Who is Putin going to nuke? London, Paris, Berlin, Rome? And kill all the families of the oligarchs? Anything closer and he might as well just drop it on Moscow and St Petersburgh himself. Once he plays that ace there's no going back i dont think

He doesn't need to nuke anybody.

He just needs to convince those in London and Paris that he's willing to nuke somebody.

France will be run by either the far left or far right by then, and the UK is feckless.

 

[suffolkowner]

He doesn't need to nuke anybody.

He just needs to convince those in London and Paris that he's willing to nuke somebody.

France will be run by either the far left or far right by then, and the UK is feckless.

I think thats why theres tens of thousands of non Baltic troops in the Baltics. I honestly dont think anyone takes Russia's nuclear threats too seriously. A madman might do anything if possible but thats no different than anytime before

 

[Altair]

I think thats why theres tens of thousands of non Baltic troops in the Baltics. I honestly dont think anyone takes Russia's nuclear threats too seriously. A madman might do anything if possible but thats no different than anytime before

What it boils down to is

Does Putin think he can win a quick war over a limited objective

Does Putin think the USA will stay out of it

Does Putin think Europe has the stomach for total war

Will NATO sans the USA be able to convince him that the juice isn't worth the squeeze.

The tripwire forces in the Baltics are not there to stop a Russian invasion, they are there so everyone has skin in the game if troops start coming home in body bags.

One Putin is pass worrrying about direct conflict with NATO, again, sans USA, those tripwire forces don't amount for much in his mind.

 

[suffolkowner]

What it boils down to is

Does Putin think he can win a quick war over a limited objective

Does Putin think the USA will stay out of it

Does Putin think Europe has the stomach for total war

Will NATO sans the USA be able to convince him that the juice isn't worth the squeeze.

The tripwire forces in the Baltics are not there to stop a Russian invasion, they are there so everyone has skin in the game if troops start coming home in body bags.

One Putin is pass worrrying about direct conflict with NATO, again, sans USA, those tripwire forces don't amount for much in his mind.

certainly there is a worry about the disconnect between what Putin thinks and reality. I would question why he would think a quick war would even be possible after the last 4 yrs.
Is he doing this concurrently while fighting in Ukraine? Then not a chance.
10yrs in the future after some sort of peace with Ukraine? With 5 to 10 million less Russians in Russia?

 

[Altair]

certainly there is a worry about the disconnect between what Putin thinks and reality. I would question why he would think a quick war would even be possible after the last 4 yrs.
Is he doing this concurrently while fighting in Ukraine? Then not a chance.
10yrs in the future after some sort of peace with Ukraine? With 5 to 10 million less Russians in Russia?

He thought Ukraine would be over in a few days.

Trump thought Iran would be over in 3 to 4 weeks.

Madmen surround themselves with yes men who convince them their wildest dilusions are possible.

 

[HavokFour]

certainly there is a worry about the disconnect between what Putin thinks and reality. I would question why he would think a quick war would even be possible after the last 4 yrs.
Is he doing this concurrently while fighting in Ukraine? Then not a chance.
10yrs in the future after some sort of peace with Ukraine? With 5 to 10 million less Russians in Russia?

Old dudes with massive ego's are unpredictable as we've been seeing. 10 years in the future might not actually matter to them if they don't think they'll be around long enough to have to deal with much of the negatives.

 

[suffolkowner]

He thought Ukraine would be over in a few days.

Trump thought Iran would be over in 3 to 4 weeks.

Madmen surround themselves with yes men who convince them their wildest dilusions are possible.

my point is he now has that experience to guide him

Old dudes with massive ego's are unpredictable as we've been seeing. 10 years in the future might not actually matter to them if they don't think they'll be around long enough to have to deal with much of the negatives.

I meant said invasion happening 10 yrs in the future. But i doubt Putin can think or care about that, which is a very sad sort of life

 

[YZT580]

Ack - but now, since Europe with much US help has climbed out of WWII level of destruction, the EU is now more than capable of doing that and bearing the costs to do so.

if they are willing to spend the money, this is true however, how many years will it take to build up a force capable of standing up against Russia. Only Poland and to a certain extent France maintained any kind of a reasonable military capability; relying upon the stars and stripes just as we have. Do you really believe that they will have the determination to spend on military rather than social services?

 

[QV]

if they are willing to spend the money, this is true however, how many years will it take to build up a force capable of standing up against Russia. Only Poland and to a certain extent France maintained any kind of a reasonable military capability; relying upon the stars and stripes just as we have. Do you really believe that they will have the determination to spend on military rather than social services?

Not really my concern. But if they don't want to be annexed by Russia they may want to re-think their spending habits.

 

[Eaglelord17]

He thought Ukraine would be over in a few days.

Trump thought Iran would be over in 3 to 4 weeks.

Madmen surround themselves with yes men who convince them their wildest dilusions are possible.

Putin is not a mad man. He is a man who made a strategic mistake, something completely different.

He is one of the smartest people alive in the world, you have to be to rise to the top of such a vicious corrupt regime and successfully govern it for a couple decades.

The west thought Ukraine would be over in a few days too, remember 3 days to Kiev? Ukraine just happened to do much better than expected and the corrupt Russian army did much worse than expected.

At this point he is trying to manage that strategic mistake, and helping get Trump elected certainly has helped in that regard.

 

[Altair]

Putin is not a mad man. He is a man who made a strategic mistake, something completely different.

He is one of the smartest people alive in the world, you have to be to rise to the top of such a vicious corrupt regime and successfully govern it for a couple decades.

The west thought Ukraine would be over in a few days too, remember 3 days to Kiev? Ukraine just happened to do much better than expected and the corrupt Russian army did much worse than expected.

At this point he is trying to manage that strategic mistake, and helping get Trump elected certainly has helped in that regard.

You can be a smart madman.

You can be a dumb madman.

You mentioned two in your post, I'll let you figure out which is which.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Putin is not a mad man. He is a man who made a strategic mistake, something completely different.

He is one of the smartest people alive in the world, you have to be to rise to the top of such a vicious corrupt regime and successfully govern it for a couple decades.

The west thought Ukraine would be over in a few days too, remember 3 days to Kiev? Ukraine just happened to do much better than expected and the corrupt Russian army did much worse than expected.

At this point he is trying to manage that strategic mistake, and helping get Trump elected certainly has helped in that regard.

I have heard it mentioned before that offering Putin an off ramp may be the solution.

 

[McG]

Getting out of Ukraine is an off ramp, and that ramp has been available continuously from day 1.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Getting out of Ukraine is an off ramp, and that ramp has been available continuously from day 1.

You're absolutely correct.

 

[Altair]

This is directed at America and Israel, but it can be applied to NATO as a whole.

The west is not ready. The future is now, and NATO is still in the past.

This video explores the critical vulnerabilities of modern militaries—specifically Israel and the United States—as they struggle to defend against the rapid proliferation of low-cost drone warfare.

Key Highlights:​

• The Drone Problem: Sophisticated military powers are finding it unsustainable and ineffective to use multi-million dollar traditional interceptors to shoot down cheap, mass-produced drones. Current defenses like the Iron Beam (0:30, 2:08) and Patriot batteries (0:48, 5:51) face significant limitations, including high costs, weather sensitivity, and depleted stockpiles.
• Technological Failures: The video details how traditional jamming often fails against new, fiber-optic guided drones used by groups like Hezbollah (3:47), which are immune to electronic warfare. In some instances, ground troops have been forced to rely on shotguns as a last-resort countermeasure (1:36, 1:41).
• US Defense Hurdles: Despite Pentagon investments in systems like the Coyote Interceptor (6:42) and Leonidas microwave weapon (8:11), the military faces bureaucratic and prioritization issues that have prevented these solutions from being deployed at necessary scales (9:22-10:06).
• Ukraine’s Role as a Leader: Ukraine has emerged as the global leader in drone and counter-drone innovation (12:04-13:06). By creating a dedicated drone military branch and developing homegrown, cost-effective technologies like the Sky Map network (13:02) and custom interceptor drones, Ukraine is now exporting its survival methodologies to the Gulf States to combat modern threats (14:16-15:20).

Ultimately, the video concludes that America and Israel are currently lagging in this new era of warfare, and the clock is ticking for them to adapt their defense strategies.

 

[Brad Sallows]

This is directed at America and Israel, but it can be applied to NATO as a whole.

The west is not ready. The future is now, and NATO is still in the past.

Is the source more like JFC Fuller, or more like the Legion of Frontiersmen?

 

[Kirkhill]

Putin is a riverboat gambler. He invaded Georgia. He invaded Crimea. He invaded the donbas. He launched a full invasion of Ukraine.

Are we to ignore a whole body of work showing hes more than capable of picking the worst option and going full send?

Sure, he might fail. But he's perfectly capable of making the attempt.

And if he succeeds what does NATO do? We have already shown we have no idea how to fight drone warfare.

That is the problem with people. They are people. They will do whatever they feel like.