A Deeply Fractured US

[dapaterson]

Gabbard is a lunatic.
She’s a Kremlin mouthpiece at best without an ounce anymore of credibility or individual thought (or integrity).

Trump / Gabbard '24?

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I like Trump / Kennedy.

 

[Brad Sallows]

I still maintain Trump/DeSantis would be the most fun, leaving would-be impeachers spinning in circles (if the ticket won).

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Defections are not frequent, but so far they all seem to be Democrat -> Independent/Republican. That isn't meaningless.

Both parties are shedding supporters due to the more extreme policies taken aboard to attract certain voters. If there was a viable 3rd centrist alternative, likley they could be the controlling influence in both houses.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Both parties are shedding supporters due to the more extreme policies taken aboard to attract certain voters. If there was a viable 3rd centrist alternative, likley they could be the controlling influence in both houses.

The "shed" is really only affecting presidential contests, and even though the upcoming election might be the most promising ground for a third-party run in decades, it's still a long shot. Besides, "defending our democracy" doesn't, apparently, extend so far as to allowing voters a shot at other candidates if there is a risk too many of them might be deserting the Democratic camp.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Well, that pretty well puts the screws to that investigation.

Jesse Watters: The Biden admin just blew up evidence | Fox News Video

Fox News host Jesse Watters calls out the administration's reaction to the discovery of cocaine in the West Wing on 'Jesse Watters Primetime.'

www.foxnews.com

 

[CBH99]

This seems fairly relevant to the discussion at hand

 

[Fishbone Jones]

"Oh, we were only pranking when we called the Judge"

Hunter Biden plea: Ex-FBI official says Biden lawyer could face 'disbarment' for prank call

Former Assistant FBI Director Chris Swecker said news of a Hunter Biden legal team member reportedly pretending to be a Republican attorney while placing a call on Tuesday to ask that IRS whistleblower testimony be stricken from the docket would be a “clear case for disbarment.”

www.washingtonexaminer.com

 

[Brad Sallows]

Strange happenings. Apparently some people who plead out do so despite feeling that they are not guilty.

 

[Journeyman]

Both parties are shedding supporters due to the more extreme policies taken aboard to attract certain voters. If there was a viable 3rd centrist alternative, likley they could be the controlling influence in both houses.

I had to check the top of the screen to ensure this wasn't a Canadian politics thread.

 

[brihard]

Strange happenings. Apparently some people who plead out do so despite feeling that they are not guilty.

The precise issue seems to be that the judge isn’t fully satisfied that all parties are on the same page versus exactly what is covered in terms of potential other/historical offenses. I suspect we’ll see something very much like the previous plea deal hammered out in the next few weeks, with clarity that will satisfy the judge.

 

[Brad Sallows]

The precise issue seems to be that the judge isn’t fully satisfied that all parties are on the same page versus exactly what is covered in terms of potential other/historical offenses. I suspect we’ll see something very much like the previous plea deal hammered out in the next few weeks, with clarity that will satisfy the judge.

Oh, I understand the issues very well. It just amuses me to see a demonstration of "plea =/= guilt" coming from the people who so often solemnly proclaim that a person who took a deal must be actually guilty.

 

[brihard]

Oh, I understand the issues very well. It just amuses me to see a demonstration of "plea =/= guilt" coming from the people who so often solemnly proclaim that a person who took a deal must be actually guilty.

Shrug sucks to suck. If you take a deal and plead guilty to an offence, you’re proven guilty of the offence in the eyes of the law and most reasonable people. I don’t care what the guilty person’s politics are. No surprise that gnashing of teeth on this issue can spam the political spectrum.

Of course this logically necessitates accepting findings of guilt from a jury or in a bench trial, too.

 

[brihard]

A new indictment has just been filed replacing the prior classified documents charges against Trump and Nauta. I haven’t picked it apart yet, but Trump is charged with a few additional offences, and a new co-conspirator is also charged. At least two of the new charges pertain to Trump et al conspiring to delete Mar-a-Lago security footage. The new co-conspirator is charged with lying to investigators; allegedly he flatly denied doing things that, it turns out, he was seen on video doing. More to follow once (if) I have time.

 

[KevinB]

Well that didn’t take long.

Trump team reacts: In a statement, a spokesperson for Trump called the development another "desperate and flailing attempt" by the Biden administration and Justice Department "to harass President Trump and those around him."

"Deranged Jack Smith knows that they have no case and is casting about for any way to salvage their illegal witch hunt and to get someone other than Donald Trump to run against Crooked Joe Biden," wrote the representative, Steven Cheung.


As opposed to just STFU’ing when they have you on surveillance video doing exactly what is alleged…

 

[Brad Sallows]

Must be unprecedented to have both "sides" each unraveling so quickly.

 

[brihard]

Must be unprecedented to have both "sides" each unraveling so quickly.

I appreciate you cutting to the chase and being so direct and literal in ‘both sides’ing this, but yes, it is unprecedented to have a former U.S. President charged criminally and then have more charges added not long after.

We still haven’t seen the Jan 6th indictment yet, but apparently Trump’s lawyers met DOJ for the de rigueur “please don’t charge our client” meet today, and that’s generally the last thing before a grand jury indicts- so maybe tomorrow or next week?

And yes, Hunter Biden’s tribulations (if not yet trials) continue as well. It will cast a pall on whatever office he might eventually hold (given that he hasn’t yet).

 

[Brad Sallows]

And yes, Hunter Biden’s tribulations (if not yet trials) continue as well. It will cast a pall on whatever office he might eventually hold (given that he hasn’t yet).

I suspect you can see the obvious as well as most other people, but here it is for anyone who doesn't.

His plea bargain blew up over the specific question of whether there would be future immunity from FARA prosecution (which was - amusingly to me - the largest part of Paul Manafort's downfall).

Raising the question of a foreign agent registration violation necessarily raises two other questions: on whose behalf (foreign side) was lobbying to be done, and who (domestic side) was to be lobbied?

Hunter Biden doesn't have a lot of strong political connections that would make him a reasonable expense for lobbying. I haven't seen anyone explain who, other than his dad, would fill the bill.

After that it's just a question of whether Hunter and his partners were the end point for money flows, or if the targets of lobbying were essentially targets of bribery.

Democrats still have a few months to decide whether to risk riding this one into the ground, or to cut losses and find someone else to show up for the primaries.

 

[brihard]

I suspect you can see the obvious as well as most other people, but here it is for anyone who doesn't.

His plea bargain blew up over the specific question of whether there would be future immunity from FARA prosecution (which was - amusingly to me - the largest part of Paul Manafort's downfall).

Raising the question of a foreign agent registration violation necessarily raises two other questions: on whose behalf (foreign side) was lobbying to be done, and who (domestic side) was to be lobbied?

Hunter Biden doesn't have a lot of strong political connections that would make him a reasonable expense for lobbying. I haven't seen anyone explain who, other than his dad, would fill the bill.

After that it's just a question of whether Hunter and his partners were the end point for money flows, or if the targets of lobbying were essentially targets of bribery.

Democrats still have a few months to decide whether to risk riding this one into the ground, or to cut losses and find someone else to show up for the primaries.

Largely agreed. He wouldn’t be the first to capitalize off a famous and influential family connection, and won’t be the last. But I don’t see this really changing many minds that aren’t already made up.

 

[Brad Sallows]

There aren't that many minds that have to be changed; they're the ones in the middle; and they're the ones that typically aren't made up until late in the game. The solidly committed partisans don't really matter.

The risk is that Trump wins the primary, and then wins the general because Biden is so dirty that people don't vote or vote third party. There is no mechanism to force voters to cast a vote for either Democrat or Republican.