Are body count estimates right out to lunch

[Kiwi99]

I was screwing round on the internet and found this article.

http://billroggio.com/archives/2006/09/canadian_forces_deal.php

Now it makes mention of enemy killed in Medusa and other operations by Roto 2.

I firmly believe that these estimates are right out to lunch. I remember after a wee fight on Aug 3 2006, somebodysaid that we had killed a crap load of enemy, and according to some sources it was more than that.  But I didn't see any enemy bodies 'littering the ground'.  So, my question is, are these figures geusstimates in order to appease the media and the public, or are they actually true.  As most people will agree, a confirmed kill is only confirmed once you kick the body and cover it with dirt.  Too many times we have heard Johnny Jundi say that these numbers are wrong.  Is he right?  Do these 'guesses' on enemy losses hamper the mission by allowing the commanders to under estimate the enemy? 

The Taliban are fighting and dying when against the coalition, there is no disputing that.  But we should eliminate the idea of kill estimates now.  At this rate we would have killed the taliban 5 times over by Xmas.

 

[MG34]

I know in Medusa and later OPs we killed a crapload of them,last estimate I heard was 2000 enemy killed in the entire Medusa Op (over a month long). I would imagine that with the use of airpower,massive amounts of arty,etc the amount of kills will be off,if you see 10 guys in a compound and drop a bomb it is assumed that is 10 kills.I have seen instances where multiple sub units have engaged a group of TB,and each send in contact reports on the same engagement,5 kills become 15 etc.
  estimates of en killed are always off the only way to be sure is to put dead En in the dirt.We witnessed TB carrying off wounded and dead in the middle of a firefight,once again making accurate counts impossible.

 

[HItorMiss]

The one thing we had to aid in our enemy killed estimate was TUAV footage of the Taliban burying their dead after the engagments, and some people coming to areas that could best be described as fresh mass graves. However on September 3rd where there was an estimated 1500 of them and 2 Pl of Canadians most soldiers will fully attest to seeing very few. of course the few they did see well they didn't see them long 


Often even when positively identifying targets is not easy like in night battles where sometimes you just engage the muzzel flash till that area no longer contains muzzle flashes coming at you. The question is did the persons holding the weapons find Allah or did they just haul butt and get out of dodge? thats a question no one will know the answer I am afraid.

 

[Kiwi99]

Confirm 1500?  Did int indicate that many, and if so, what ever happened to a 3:1 ratio?  Sending two Pl against 1500 seems like a classic example of under estimating the enemy capabilities, someting that you and I have both seen up close.

 

[RHFC_piper]

Confirm 1500?  Did int indicate that many, and if so, what ever happened to a 3:1 ratio?  Sending two Pl against 1500 seems like a classic example of under estimating the enemy capabilities, someting that you and I have both seen up close.

Unfortunately, It's easy to underestimate when they're all hiding in Marijuana fields and then pop up 20 to 40 meters away.  Besides, we did have air and arty support, and it wasn't like they all came at us at once.  There may have been 1500 in the area, but the estimate that I got (shortly after we pulled out of Pashmul), as far as how many we engaged directly with the the 2 platoons, was more like 400-600.  There were a lot of them... every where.

Often even when positively identifying targets is not easy like in nig balltels where sometimes you just engage the muzzel flash till that area no longer contains muzzle flashes coming at you. The question is did the persons holding the weapons find Allah or did they just haul butt and get out of dodge? thats a question no one will know the answer I am afraid.

I can't speak for all the sections in the platoons, but we (My section) weren't engaging just muzzle flahes.  They were close, and like I said above, there were lots of them, moving in and out of the pot fields.  When we first took fire, we were engaging muzzle flashes, but after the first hour or so, they got closer.  Close enough to see the effects of your fire.  But that may have just been on my side of the fight.

I'm not going to estimate number of kills (for the platoon, my self, or the LMG gunner standing with me), but there were a lot... and not just hits. Drops.

 

[HItorMiss]

I said "Like in night Battles" as an example of how sometimes you don't see the enemy just weapon signature. I was not speaking for the 3rd specificaly, though your side did see more enemy then the two other sides do to the nature of ground.

And As for numbers the true numbers came out after the fact as some came to fight after it had been ongoing for abit. The early estimates and int reps were shall we say ignored by higher and by higher I do not mean the BG CO.... and that's all I will say about that.

 

[RHFC_piper]

And As for numbers the true numbers came out after the fact as some came to fight after it had been ongoing for abit. The early estimates and int reps were shall we say ignored by higher and by higher I do not mean the BG CO.... and that's all I will say about that.

That became apparent when the plans changed and we went in early  (3 days of bombardment, indeed)... which led me to develop a new moto;  "Don't subtract from a plan, only add."

But that body count (in Panjwayi) did include the countless masses hit in the numerours (successful) A-10 strikes, arty barrages, bombings and other fast air sorties, not to mention our snipers and other sneaky types, and our LAVs firing in, correct?  It wasn't just us in the thick of it on the morning of the third, was it?

 

[Kiwi99]

I have seen what arty and fast air does to those buildings and open areas, and I know too well what the weed fields hide in them.  But the arty and fast air was never super effective, sometimes barely effective.  I believe that witnessing the arty and bombs land on an enemy position leaves the viewer wondering what can survivve, but when TF ORION conducted follow up sweeps they still encountered resistance.  The tunnel network in the Panjwai area is amazing.  Many times a jundi was chased into a compound and just vanished.

LAVs firing on the enemy are a great tool.  But even with LAV, locating the enemy is bloody hard.  We found that enemy strenght was over estimated as they did not fight in distinct organisations.  For example, one or two dudes with a PKM or RPG would wander all over shooting whenever.  That beiong said, there are more of them than int may suggest.

You guys were lucky, you had arty support, for what its worth.  It was denied by higher for us.

 

[Kiwi99]

I firmly think that anyone with a story about a TIC in theater put it down in this thread.  A lot of people can learn from it, and they may utilise some of the lessons learnt when on tour themselves.  This is an excellent forum for pers from all trades to share their experiances and learn from each other.  Many fights have been covered by the media, but often poorly.  I would ask anyone who learnt one thing in Afghanistan to put it here, and applyin OPSEC at all times of course.

I am sure Piper and Hitormiss agree, so lets get some minds remembering.

 

[armyvern]

I firmly think that anyone with a story about a TIC in theater put it down in this thread.  A lot of people can learn from it, and they may utilise some of the lessons learnt when on tour themselves. 

That's fine.

Let's just ensure that those posting TICs keep this link and CANFORGEN in mind when doing so:

http://forums.army.ca/forums/threads/58682.0.html

 

[RHFC_piper]

I think we already have a thread discussing this topic (TICs)

http://forums.army.ca/forums/threads/51144.0.html

 

[HItorMiss]

Piper the total for the entire operation includes all actions for that operation including arty, air and all other assets. Whereas the estmate for the day just includes our fire and the supporting  fire from other assets.

The key word is estimate because we did not have actual bodies to count. We just have video footage from TUAV after to get the estimate.

 

[geo]

Bodycounts during the Vietnam war were such that the NVA and the Vietminh would have been decimated 100 times over.

Commanders were demanding larger and larger body counts from their troops - and getting them!!!.... gee - isn't that a coincidence.

Confirmed kills with visual confirmation of Mk 1 eyeball is the only accurate measure but, when you get down to it, territory under control and safe is the only measure that matters.

 

[RHFC_piper]

Piper the total for the entire operation includes all actions for that operation including arty, air and all other assets. Whereas the estmate for the day just includes our fire and the supporting  fire from other assets.

The key word is estimate because we did not have actual bodies to count. We just have video footage from TUAV after to get the estimate.

Seen.

But it still seems kinda high.  We were horribly out numbered, but it didn't seem that bad.  There was a lot of air and arty support that day, and contrary to popular belief, air support is fairly effective (at least from my personal experience), and they sure weren't holding back much that day (or after).  
You were there for the AAR, HoM, so you know the gripes about support, and you know how effective the 25 mm HEIT was, we all had issues with all of it, and as much as it seemed like they were coming in droves and we were fighting them off, it didn't seem (to me anyway) like there were that many of them.
Must just be a perspective thing.

If there were, indeed, 1500 confirmed, well then Hooray for the good guys...  
It's just too bad it cost us what it did.

Confirmed kills with visual confirmation of Mk 1 eyeball is the only accurate measure but, when you get down to it, territory under control and safe is the only measure that matters.

Hard to confirm when they drag the bodies away.  But you're right, its the results not the method that really matters in this case.

 

[Kiwi99]

So, it begs the question, have we killed as many as we think, or have we merely chipped away at a larger group?  This is an important issue as the Canadian public are being told that we are winning the war, and we are definitley winning the fights, but what would be usefull to kill more effeciantly.  I am not talking about upgrades to kit or stuff like that.  We all know that people in DLR and other offices in Ottawa know all the answers, so please lets not steal their thunder.  More troops?  More experiance in important places?  What about abolishing the ANP and making the ANA do the police work and soldier work?  God knows the ANP are a waste of time anyway.  

Our ability to bring death and destruction to the enemy should be the focal point of dialougue and ultimatley, purchase of kit and implementation of resources. And it all comes with a three days bombardment!  

It does seem as if they come in waves, as they utilise their fire support well, and apply good covering fire.  Heavy sustained fire from PKM and RPK followed by a couple of RPG to provide final obscuration as they advance.  And they do employ fire and manouver, although only in a basic form.  Given the fact that many of these jundis have been fighting for the pastr twenty years, and the Panjwai area is a historical battleground for them, I believe that if they had 1500 against 2 platoons, they would have been more succesful.  I do noty mean to belittle your comment s HoM, but that is a whack load of bad dudes against very few. 

I am very familiar with the White School after sleeping their a couple of nights,and having the odd scrap there, and I know the ground well.  If anyone has pics of the enemy defensive positions post Aug 3rd, please send em to me.

 

[GAP]

Bodycounts during the Vietnam war were such that the NVA and the Vietminh would have been decimated 100 times over.

Commanders were demanding larger and larger body counts from their troops - and getting them!!!.... gee - isn't that a coincidence.

Confirmed kills with visual confirmation of Mk 1 eyeball is the only accurate measure but, when you get down to it, territory under control and safe is the only measure that matters.

We also counted blood trails...generally it was pretty obvious that whoever got hit, got hit pretty bad, sometimes they left bits & pieces behind. It wasn't accurate counting, but neither I nor anybody else was prepared to dive too far off into the bush to use our MK1 eyeballs. Often we found them days later in another location.

There was some talk about units exaggerating their numbers, and maybe they did, but the counts we submitted were as accurate as could be had...and we made a point of using a separate number for the "possibles".

 

[HItorMiss]

I should clarify there were 2 Pl's and ANA, they were very successful in that they made us withdraw from the the contact, save for overrunning us I would call that a victory on their part.

Piper I did not say 1500 confirmed I said estimated 1500 in the area of our battle. As for the rest of the battle and coming in droves well everything is in peoples perspective I was all over th battlefiled that day for one reason or another and some areas were more quiet then others and then move 100m and it was like hell itslef had risen to swallow us whole. I am sure there are others in other fights that will say the same thing.

In the end It doesn't really matter how many there were or how little I don't think we will ever really know nor do I care really it's all a moot point in my book. As for killing them I think we do a damn good job all in all everything can be done better of course but it seems our kill ratios are very very good in any pitched battle. I don't have total numbers but  I suspect they are really high.

 

[Kiwi99]

As for killing them I think we do a damn good job all in all everything can be done better of course but it seems our kill ratios are very very good in any pitched battle.

Or so we think.  Did you guys actually secure the school that day or did you have to withdraw due to casulties?  And what problems did you experiance with heat exhaustion?

 

[Armymedic]

I believe that if they had 1500 against 2 platoons, they would have been more succesful.  I do noty mean to belittle your comment s HoM, but that is a whack load of bad dudes against very few. 

Remember that these '1500' do not have the command and control we would be famil to. They fight in much smaller groups under leader who may or may not be doing as directed by a higher TB commander.

Also, thankfully for us, "inshallah" and small arms markmanship both work in our favour.

 

[3rd Horseman]

Or so we think.  Did you guys actually secure the school that day or did you have to withdraw due to casulties?  And what problems did you experiance with heat exhaustion?

 This has been a great discussion so far. The yellow portion is uncalled for, let us not cast stones at each others work under fire.

 No doubt as has been discussed often in this thread body counts and EN estimates have never been very accurate.  To claim 1500 KIA and have them disappear off the battle field would mean 3000 able bodied EN carried them away that would make 4500 EN combatants. With the wounded probably being 3 times that of the dead then another 3000 to 4500 would have walked away wounded thus we have a battle field estimate of 7500 to 9000 EN. I doubt it. Lets just accept that our boys did a fine job fighting that and other days and are winning. The counts of who was KIA and who was on the battle field will be found out in 20 to 50 years when the vets finally get together from both sides and toast each other as old men who all fought bravely.