I've said this before, but I think the west is going to find itself in Afghanistan again sooner than anybody thinks...
And before anybody roasts me too hard...
If someone told you in 1999 or even 2000, or the first 3/4 of 2001 that Canada would find itself in a protracted counter-insurgency war in Afghanistan, you'd have called them crazy.
We were well established in Bosnia & Kosovo at the time, and none of our fortune cookies indicated at all that we would soon be heavily committed to a shooting war in SE Asia for the next decade.
But events happen, and we all know what went down after...
...
I suspect recent history is going to repeat itself...
We are committed to Latvia right now, with our 2400 troops slated to grow to 2600 troops during the next year.
There is no openly acknowledged intelligence to suggest we will find ourselves in a prolonged counter-terrorism operation somewhere in SE Asia in the near future.
And yet, those of us who have been paying attention to this space have all been saying for a while now that the west is due for some major terror attacks (rumour has it they will top what happened on September 11, 2001)
...
Hamza Bin Laden has recently married the daughter of Mullah Omar (the former leader of the Taliban)
That means Al Qeida is essentially married to the Taliban, and vice versa.
Hamza Bin Laden lives quite comfortably in Afghanistan, where various terror organizations have made peace with each other and are now working together.
(For those who haven't been watching this space...Hamza Bin Laden is Usama Bin Laden's son. He was also the mastermind behind the Benghazi terror attacks on the US embassy & CIA safe house in Benghazi, Libya. Ironically enough the militia that showed up to help the Americans was led by one of Muammar Gaddafi's sons...but thats for a different thread altogether.)
(Comically, Hamza recently had a son, who he named Usama...I can't make this stuff up folks)
Basically, Afghanistan has become the absolute safe haven for terror networks it was before - but this time terror organizations from all over the world have set up shop there. (ISIS + Taliban = all buddy buddy now)
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Over the past 5 years or so (longer in Europe) the west has experienced mass, unvetted migration.
The US alone had an
estimated 20 million undocumented people enter the country just during the Biden years - and an above average percentage of those people were fighting aged males.
Not only that, but a non-insignificant percentage of people coming up thru the US southern border weren't of Mexican or South American decent.
Somalians, Afghans, and Chinese were commonly documented entering the US during that time (often without any identification on their person) but were allowed into the US regardless.
How do Somalians find themselves crossing the southern US border? How do Afghans?
People in both countries are dirt poor...how did they afford airfare? How were they even allowed on a plane? How did they get enough money to support themselves on their journey?
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If even 1% of that 20 million have the intention of committing a terror attack - whether against people or infrastructure - that's a possible 200,000 terrorists that are already inside the United States.
I truly shutter at how many have entered Europe as almost all European governments that are part of the EU have embraced the mass, unvetted immigration. I have no idea what their numbers look like.
But in Europe, unlike the US, they don't have to worry about the citizens taking up arms to defend themselves...
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I strongly suspect the west will find itself the victim of some massive, well organized terror attacks in the near future - the likes of which no country is really prepared for.
What happens when the US has 2 or 3 active terror incidents happening in 5 major cities simultaneously?
What happens when the terrorists are organized enough that they set up kill zones for responding law enforcement?
Or attack law enforcement right at the police station, helping to ensure major delays for anybody waiting for help?
Or attack a hospital? Or a hospital AND a police station simultaneously?
Or a major sports game, or other public venue? (Remember those 3 or 4 dudes that attacked the Russian concert hall 2 years ago with assault rifles, and just started killing everybody? Imagine that happening at an NFL/NHL game, with possibly more than just 1 shooter team. Or a busy mall during the Christmas shopping season?)
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The Haqqani network is currently responsible for issuing Afghan passports. Yes, you heard that correctly.
There are multiple terror organizations that are now living, training, and planning together in Afghanistan.
And the leader of Al Qeida is married to the daughter of a former Taliban commander...
Maybe Trump can see the writing on the wall, and is just trying to get one step ahead of things? Get a foothold to stage operations from if the need arises?
700 bases globally, what's 1 more?
(I can't see the US bombing facilities well inside China that produce nuclear weapons for the Chinese government anytime in the foreseeable future, especially since Trump and Xi seem to get along. Can any of you?)
That's my miserable 2 cents anyway...
Since I don't see America bombing Chinese nuclear facilities anytime soon, why else push for access to that base again?
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