BC Election 2013

[RangerRay]

Just curious; is there any spillover across the Rockies from the rise of true small "c" conservatives like the Wildrose Alliance and the Saskatchewan Party?

I find BC politics rather incomprehensible (party labels don't seem to mean the same things as they do here), and know of the various personalities only second and third hand via legacy media and the Blogosphere (and the dichotomy between these sources is mind blowing).

So the question is really two fold: Is there an actual small "c: conservative party or movement in BC, and what is their chance in this election? (Supplementary question: is this movement or party capable of contesting and wining in the future?)

This is potentially a game changer in Canadian politics if the flow of demographic and economic power to the West is matched by a change in the political alignment of the West; small "c" conservatives provincially could create a pool of experienced small "c" conservative candidates to run in future Federal elections (and with the massive demographic backing, potentially create a small "c" natural ruling party for decades to come).

What goes on in Alberta and Saskatchewan has little relevance to what goes on in BC.  It is just a coincidence that the Wildrose and BC Conservatives are having a resurgence at the same time.

In BC, the voting populous can be divided into two groups: NDP and anybody but NDP (ABNDP).  Federal allegiances bear little resemblance to provincial allegiances; during the 90's, the same people that voted NDP provincially voted in droves for the Reform Party federally.  Both the provincial Liberal and Conservative parties have no affiliation with their federal namesakes.

The ABNDP are generally pro free-enterprise, and a mix of small "c" conservatives and small "l" liberals, and they are about 55-60% of the voters.  ~40% of voters vote NDP.  The ABNDP has existed as a coalition many times since the 1940's.  Then, it was a Liberal/Conservative coalition.  When WAC Bennett became leader of Social Credit, most of those who supported the Liberal/Conservative coalition joined the Socreds.  The Liberals and Tories still existed, but became much smaller than they once were.  When the NDP became government in 1972, it was because Bennett's Socreds were long in the tooth and many Socred voters voted for the Liberal Party.  WAC's son Bill rebuilt the Socred coalition, which lasted until Bill Vander Zalm became leader.  Vander Zalm, a born-again Christian, took the Socreds further to the right, and disenfranchised a lot of small "l" liberal free-enterprisers.  This led to the implosion of Social Credit, which never recovered.

During the 90's, the NDP won two elections due to the split in the ABNDP.  In the 2001 election, Gordon Campbell, who led the BC Liberal Party that was backed by Howe Street and business, convinced the small "c" conservatives (who, until 2001, backed BC Reform) to join his party as the best option to defeat the NDP.

I wouldn't say that there is a resurgence in conservative thought in BC, but more like an implosion of the BC Liberal coalition as small "c" conservatives and those concerned about ethics and transparency in government abandon the party.  Small "l" liberals have no love for Christy Clark either, since she was a part of the Paul Martin wrecking crew that destroyed the federal Liberals in BC, never mind her shallowness and incompetence.  Small "l" liberals also do not like seeing Clark trying to appear more "conservative" by getting cozy with the PM and hiring former staffers of PM Harper (despite her lambasting PM Harper while she was a talk show host on CKNW).

So the short answer to all that rambling is that the increase in popularity of the BC Conservatives is due to the failings of Gordon Campbell, Christy Clark and the BC Liberals, rather than the popularity of conservative ideology.  However, all it will take for the BC Conservatives to lose support is for someone from right-hand fringe of the party (such as party president Reed Elley or Randy White) to have a bozo-eruption and have it reproduced on Global BC, CKNW, CBC, the Vancouver Province and the Vancouver Sun.  Then they will be lucky to get two seats.

 

[Rifleman62]

RangerRay:

Yes, it's all pointless, so corruption shouldn't be investigated.

I am not suggesting that at all. The reality is NOTHING will happen in the end. Have an inquiry. People lie under oath daily.

 

[a_majoor]

Thanks for the info RangerRay. Now I don't feel quite so lost reading about the BC election. 

 

[Rifleman62]

I will second the thanks RangerRay. Being a newcomer to BC I did not know all the history.

 

[Infanteer]

What goes on in Alberta and Saskatchewan has little relevance to what goes on in BC.  It is just a coincidence that the Wildrose and BC Conservatives are having a resurgence at the same time.

In BC, the voting populous can be divided into two groups: NDP and anybody but NDP (ABNDP).  Federal allegiances bear little resemblance to provincial allegiances; during the 90's, the same people that voted NDP provincially voted in droves for the Reform Party federally.  Both the provincial Liberal and Conservative parties have no affiliation with their federal namesakes.

Good summary Ray and, from living there for 25 years (and still calling it 'home'), accurate in my view.

I think the NDP's traditional standing in BC is a variant of 'Prairie Socialism' - the NDP in Saskatchewan has had a traditional appeal to the agricultural based life-style in that province.  In BC, the NDP seems to find its support base as a 'blue collar party' in the strong unions in BC's forest and mining industries which fuel much of the province's economy.  Remember the Fast Ferry scandal that killed the NDP last time was a result of the party getting into bed with the shipbuilding union; it finally united the ABNDP crowd to vote Liberal.  However, all of this provincial politicking goes to pot at the federal level, as the traditional Western apathy against Ottawa tends to take over.  This apathy, of course, doesn't really exist as much in Metro Vancouver which I think is a distinct political entity from TROBC (the rest of B.C.).

 

[RangerRay]

You are all very welcome.  :bowing:

Apparently, there has been some informal whisperings about a Liberal/Conservative merger.  But BC Tory leader John Cummins is having none of it.  Here, reproduced in accordance with the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act, is The Province's legislative columnist Mike Smythe's article on this campaign, and why Mr. Cummins is having none of it.

http://www.theprovince.com/opinion/columnists/6443911/story.html

Conservative leader Cummins uninterested in merger with ‘discredited’ BC Liberals
 
By Michael Smyth
The Province
April 12, 2012 6:20 AM

Some BC Liberals are so worried Premier Christy Clark might drive the party bus over an electoral cliff next year, they’re willing to go begging and scraping to their fiercest critic.

But will Conservative leader John Cummins entertain any suggestions of merging his surging party with the slumping Liberals, to take on the poll-topping NDP with a new right-wing combo party?

“Absolutely not,” Cummins said of the rumoured merger talks.

“If the leadership of the BC Conservatives were to go anywhere near a merger with the Liberals, I don’t think there’s a single Conservative member who would follow us.”

Cummins said he has not been directly approached about a deal with the Liberals, but said some Liberal insiders have put out feelers to counterparts in the Conservative ranks.

“There has been casual conversation,” Cummins said. “Some people politically active, but not in formal positions within the Liberal Party, have broached the issue to some people in our party. It’s free-enterprise voters looking for some kind of solution.”

He didn’t mention any names, and he made it clear no one in any senior leadership role in the Liberals has made any serious overtures.

But Cummins said even a casual whisper campaign in an effort to get a serious merger effort under way would just be waste of breath.

“The Liberals are a discredited organization,” he said. “We’re not interested.”

And isn’t that the best news possible for Adrian Dix and the NDP?

With the Liberals and Conservatives tied in the polls -- and the New Democrats 20 points ahead of them both -- it seems only some kind of rapprochement between the Liberals and Conservatives can prevent the return of socialism in B.C.

That’s not the way Cummins sees it.

“I don’t agree with that,” Cummins said. “The public would see through it [a merger], and the NDP would still win the election.”

And that appears to be Cummins’s master plan anyway. The former Conservative MP seems to be counting on an NDP government in May 2013, followed by continued growing strength of the Conservatives in opposition, and the total collapse of the Liberals.

All of which leaves Christy Clark in a dire predicament. With the party brand in tatters, there’s genuine fear the Liberals could go the way of the old Social Credit party and be wiped off the map completely.

But if a merger isn’t possible, how about a Liberal name change? After all, look how fresh political brands like Alberta’s Wildrose Party, and the Saskatchewan Party, have captured the support of old-guard outfits in those provinces.

“But those were new movements, not a discredited party with a new name,” Cummins fires back. “This has gone beyond names.”

He could be right. Next week’s pair of crucial byelections could tell the tale.

EDIT TO ADD:

The rise of the BC Conservatives has little to do with any work they are doing.  Although there was a bit of publicity when John Cummins became leader, and when the BC Liberals started an ill-conceived attack campaign on him, the Tories have been largely silent while the BC Liberals implode.  Add to that that Mr. Cummins is not the most charismatic person, nor the best public speaker or debater, and the BC Tory backroom is not the most professional out there.  However, despite all that, the BC Conservatives are on the upswing, while the corporate-backed BC Liberals are flailing, with many polls showing them tied.  Former BC Liberal supporters are looking for another option that is not the NDP. 

If the BC Conservatives win in Chilliwack, and do well in Port Moody, then they can argue that it is the BC Liberals splitting the free-enterprise vote!

 

[RangerRay]

Here, reproduced in accordance with the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act, from Saturday's Globe and Mail, Gary Mason tells us why the two by-elections mean so much for Christy Clark.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/british-columbia/gary_mason/bc-liberals-desperately-seeking-a-by-election-game-changer/article2402295/

B.C. Liberals desperately seeking a by-election game-changer

GARY MASON
From Saturday's Globe and Mail
Published Friday, Apr. 13, 2012 8:01PM EDT

There isn’t a governing party in the country that needs some good news as badly as B.C. Premier Christy Clark’s Liberals.

Every few weeks, it seems, another poll is published showing Ms. Clark’s personal popularity in free fall. Support for her Liberals, meantime, has plunged to historic lows. Some surveys have them tied with the B.C. Conservatives – a party that was all but extinct a year ago.

It is against this backdrop that two by-elections will be held next week in ridings that the incumbent Liberals would normally do well in. But these aren’t normal times for B.C.’s governing party. Today, it’s the one facing possible extinction.

The Liberals are desperate for a bounce to go their way. Typically, with any kind of vote, that would mean a win. In the case of these by-elections, however, it may mean a loss.

It seems the Liberals have all but ceded the contest in Port Moody-Coquitlam to the NDP’s Joe Trasolini, a former long-time (and popular) mayor in the area. Ms. Clark was hoping he’d run for her. Now he’s likely to cost the Premier’s party a seat.

The Liberals’ best hope is in Chilliwack-Hope, a conservative riding preternaturally inclined to support a candidate representing a so-called free-enterprise party. In recent years that has been the Liberals. Before them it was Social Credit.

The Liberals are running a strong candidate: Laurie Throness. It is not completely outside the realm of possibility he could win. If he did, it would rank as one of the most important victories in B.C. Liberal Party history, given how desperately it needs a game-changer.

Right now, however, most polls put Tory candidate John Martin, an affable, arch-conservative newspaper columnist, out in front. A Conservative win would give the party two seats in the legislature, not to mention fresh and important momentum.

But it is the prospect of a New Democratic Party victory that is most intriguing – and ironically the outcome that may offer the Liberals the best chance of sparking a comeback.

An NDP triumph would provide the evidence the Liberals need to bolster their contention that the rise of the B.C. Conservatives is only going to ensure that the NDP gets into power come next spring’s general election. They argue that the Conservative-Liberal vote split needed for an NDP win in Chilliwack would be played out across the province, helping ensure that the “socialists hordes” take over the levers of power in 2013.

It is a compelling argument. And the only card the Liberals seem to have to play at the moment. Nothing they are doing on the policy side is moving the dial – except in the wrong direction.

An NDP victory in Chilliwack will almost certainly fuel talk of some kind of Liberal-Conservative merger in advance of next year’s province-wide vote. Members of Ms. Clark’s caucus are already openly discussing the possibility of some type of centre-right union. But it is wishful thinking.

There isn’t a chance in the world a B.C. Conservative Party under John Cummins will amalgamate, in any fashion, with a Liberal Party led by Ms. Clark. Ideologically, the two leaders are worlds apart – despite the Premier’s best efforts in recent months to fashion herself as a late-to-the-party neo-con.

Additionally, why would the Conservatives fold up their tent, after working so hard to gain a healthy measure of respect in B.C.? I think the Liberals should quickly dismiss any notion that they are going to be able to persuade the upstart Conservatives to suddenly play nice and join forces to fight socialist evil.

As things stand now, the Liberals’ best hope of maintaining power in a year’s time is as part of some kind of minority government. Those are likely the only circumstances under which the Conservatives would join forces with them. It is also a scenario that is difficult to imagine, given the odds that vote-splitting between the two parties is likely only to increase the size of the NDP’s seat total.

Still, if there was ever any kind of co-operation on a joint strategy come election time it’s not impossible – only exceedingly complex and fraught with danger.

Right now, the Liberals are campaigning in these two by-elections like they are fighting for their political lives. In some ways they are. A victory for the party in either riding would be outsized given the mostly insignificant stakes one generally associates with these types of votes.

Two losses, meantime, would only add to the massive snowball of troubles that is gathering force behind the Liberals and threatening to crush them.

Last updated Friday, Apr. 13, 2012 8:04PM EDT

My prediction...

Port Moody will go NDP.

If the BC Conservatives win in Chilliwack, the implosion of the BC Liberals will quicken exponentially, and I doubt Premier Clark will last the year.  More MLA's will leave caucus and there may even be a caucus revolt.  The BC Conservatives will be the strongest of the "free-enterprise" parties, but the NDP will win in 2013.

If the NDP win in Chilliwack, the implosion will slow down, as Premier Clark can argue that a vote for the Tories is a vote for the NDP.  The BC Liberals will continue to bungle along and the NDP will win in 2013 anyways.

Either way, the 2013 election is the NDP's to lose.

 

[Haletown]

Here, reproduced in accordance with the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act, from Saturday's Globe and Mail, Gary Mason tells us why the two by-elections mean so much for Christy Clark.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/british-columbia/gary_mason/bc-liberals-desperately-seeking-a-by-election-game-changer/article2402295/

My prediction...

Port Moody will go NDP.

Yes but they will really go Joe Trasolini.

Shouldn't be too long before Joe and the NDP have some hurting feelings because Joe isn't really a union BC Fed Brother kinda guy.




If the BC Conservatives win in Chilliwack, the implosion of the BC Liberals will quicken exponentially, and I doubt Premier Clark will last the year.  More MLA's will leave caucus and there may even be a caucus revolt.  The BC Conservatives will be the strongest of the "free-enterprise" parties, but the NDP will win in 2013.

Agreed  . . .  the power brokers that fund it all will tell her to take a walk in the rain but will provide a graceful exit career strategy for her

If the NDP win in Chilliwack, the implosion will slow down, as Premier Clark can argue that a vote for the Tories is a vote for the NDP.  The BC Liberals will continue to bungle along and the NDP will win in 2013 anyways.

Either way, the 2013 election is the NDP's to lose.

That about sums it up perfectly.

 

[RangerRay]

Some more scuttlebutt from Alex Tsakumis' blog.  The disappearance of the budget guest list, which had a convicted terrorist in attendance, an insane outburst by the only MLA to support Christy Clark during the leadership last year, more talk of a caucus revolt, and more on the by-elections.

http://alexgtsakumis.com/2012/04/17/christy-clark-descends-further-into-murky-depths-what-do-harry-bloy-jaspal-atwal-a-caucus-revolt-and-millstones-have-in-common/

Christy Clark Descends Further Into Murky Depths: What Do Harry Bloy, Jaspal Atwal, A Caucus Revolt and Millstones Have in Common?

Answer: Adorning the neck of Premier Christy Clark, they’ll surely take her to the murkiest of waters–straight down into the depths of darkness.

Where the bottom will be her only friend left…

Three weeks ago, after John vanDongen thoroughly (and appropriately) flamed the Premier in the house on his way out of her free-falling government, Vaughn Palmer, Gary Mason and Mike Smyth, all described Clark’s week from hell as something she could ill-afford again.

Well, what now that her weeks are only getting progressively worse with every passing day?

Some days, the stories write themselves.

No sooner had the Premier’s mainstream media friends like Tom Fletcher and Sean Leslie further embarrassed themselves by dismissing ‘The Atwal Affair’ from the outset, than BC’s top investigative reporter, Bob Mackin, ( http://2010goldrush.blogspot.ca/2012/04/whats-premiers-office-hiding-about.html ) revealed yesterday that the Premier’s office has refused to provide any list of guests for the day Atwal, a convicted domestic terrorist (the presiding judge’s words at sentencing) attended the immediate past budget day speech in the Legislature–AS A GUEST OF THE CHRISTY CLARK GOVERNMENT.

THIS IS UNBELIEVABLE OBSTRUCTION–AND AGAINST THE LAW. The Premier’s office has a LEGAL obligation to, in this case, provide the list. They directed reporters to the Protocol Office, although, problem for them being, this very department falls under the direct jurisdiction of the Office of the Premier! Mackin even goes so far as to suggest in his post that they are intentionally hiding the list!

It’s a major scandal.

So, where are the Victoria Press Gallery? The Premier’s Office can order that list from any office, one the spot. And yet, look at the letters they had the temerity to send Mackin! They did a search and found nothing. Really? Even if the Premier’s crew didn’t vet the list, someone did and you know damn well Atwal’s name was on it. So, why have they not ordered that list from the Protocol Office? Why have they not spoken to the Office of the Sergeant-at-Arms? His office is the one responsible for public gallery access. Why not the Office of the Speaker? It’s his office that’s responsible for the Legislature. If Christy Clark’s government were at all interested in telling the truth about the Premier’s political pal Jaspal Atwal, they’d have been honest and admitted they’ve been caught in one of the most frightening lies ever told.

I told you. ‘The Atwal Affair’ can bring her down. There is more to it, much more, and I’m digging believe me. Stay tuned!

_____________________________

In the over thirty years I’ve observed politics and politicians, never have I encountered an individual so seemingly unglued and unqualified to be in this province’s legislature as BC Liberal MLA (from Burnaby-Lougheed), Harry Bloy–the only member of the government dimwitted enough to have supported Christy Clark during the leadership race.

Yesterday, as you must all now be well-aware, Bloy rose in the house to make a statement that surely ranks as the single most insane stream of lies that have ever been uttered in the Legislative Buildings.

Never, ever, could I have imagined that as ethically impoverished as this government is, could one of its members rise to attack the Leader of Opposition with, at the crescendo, such guttural, phantom, psychotic, and unhinged claims.

Adrian Dix, Bloy suggested, had stolen the engagement ring he gave to his wife, in the same manner as Dix’s “friend” Svend Robinson. Now, on the face of it, Bloy looked as deranged as his statements, shaking and becoming more heated, but at the heart of this there must be something more.

The Leader of the BC NDP is a thief??? INSANE ENOUGH, as when cornered by a bewildered and stunned media in the hallway, Bloy later tried to excuse his outrageous outburst by blaming it on the often spontaneous hubris of debate, but I’m afraid that won’t wash either.

Not quite dense enough to repeat his baseless lies outside the house (were ever word would be actionable; a sure slander), Bloy chose instead to fade into the ether as the ravenous pack of media hounds followed him. Simply put: He screwed up, apologized and that was it, as far as he’s concerned.

Well, that’s just not good enough. Several matters come to the fore on this one.

Firstly, what possessed this guy to come off like such a crackpot? Those were well-beyond weasel words. Well past the nastiness threshold. This is a man with some serious issues. This is the Premier’s top supporter in caucus, that sees the government coming apart at the seams–that must be the cause. Bloy looked like he hadn’t slept in days.

Secondly, what on earth is Kevin Falcon doing defending Bloy’s disgusting tirade??? Kevin, you’d better retire and go make some money somewhere. Defending the indefensible is beyond words.

Thirdly, when I was in Victoria many moons ago, I took the Parliamentarian’s course, so that I knew specifically what was going on in the legislature and how I must advise the Preem on how to handle a matter upcoming, or my Minister before him. I can’t remember what I paid. I think it was around $300.00 and as soon as the late Elwood Veitch heard I’d done that, he promptly told the Premier, who insisted I be reimbursed. It’s not a complicated course, takes little time and is knowledge that, if you’re dealing with government, is most useful. Frankly, it’s essential.

Why was Acting Speaker Linda Reid not afforded the same opportunity I was, twenty two years ago?

Reid’s performance yesterday was absolutely dismal. The ignominy was almost as thorough as Bloy’s. Reid didn’t have the first clue how to ask Bloy to stand down. In fact, she allowed him to continue without an IMMEDIATE withdrawal and apology. She had the power to eject him and should have done so. It’s stunning that she has been given the Speaker’s gavel, without a stitch of qualifications or credentials. Clearly, she doesn’t know what she’s doing and she be removed from such responsibility. ( http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/04/16/bc-harry-bloy-apology.html ) For shame!

__________________________________

Caucus revolt? What revolt? That’s the reaction from Keith Baldrey, Sean Leslie, Vanilla Bull and Tom Fletcher. All Premier’s Men. Well, fart-catching aside, they’re all in for a rude awakening.

I’m told this morning that there are ACTIVE discussions with certain MLAs who have approached the BC Conservatives, with the possibility of switching over. Long standing critics of both Campbell and Clark have told me that they have ALSO approached the BC Conservatives.

I’m also told that if the BC Conservatives win Chilliwack, the revolt will be immediate. If the NDP wins, the revolt might take longer but it will still happen. Either way, it’s shaping up to be this: Christy Clark may not survive to be the Leader of the BC Liberal PArty going into the next election.

Hold on to your hats for the maelstrom that will surely ensue.

__________________________________

Interesting news coming out of the by-elections in Chilliwack and Port Moody. BC Liberal strategist Marko Dekovic has told several people that in his party that he fears a BC NDP victory in both by-elections. Dekovic, who is a friend, was not available for comment this morning. But if he’s making those predictions inside the tent, this could spell problems for the BC Conservatives. It means Marko, who is one of the top election day strategists in the province, is either bluffing or he knows the writing on the wall and is trying to play to the narrative about vote-splitting between red and blue–hoping it’s the NDP that wins and not the Conservatives (as this would really drive a knife into Clark and the Liberals). Either way, this can’t be good for the BC Liberals. I’m told Throness is polling third and the numbers are trending away from him. Remember, Dekovic was the architect of Clark’s win in Vancouver-Point Grey. It was his insistence on getting supporters to advance polls in a close race that won it for Dummy, otherwise, she’d be without a seat.

Oh, yes, and one final note for today.

Huge advance poll numbers being reported in Chilliwack…

If you’re a BC Conservative operative working that riding right now…you should be reading between the lines here…no excuses, boys, this should be a sure pick for you.

 

[RangerRay]

More on the rise of the BC Conservatives, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act, from today's National Post.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/04/17/brian-hutchinson-a-blue-wave-on-b-c-shores/

With the B.C. Liberals’ base crumbling, provincial Tories have a chance to launch a new political era

Brian Hutchinson  Apr 17, 2012 – 8:27 PM ET | Last Updated: Apr 17, 2012 8:54 PM ET

Every morning, their routine is the same: B.C. Conservative Party volunteers search for missing election signs. Close to 70 have been destroyed. Big ones, ripped to pieces, some of them tossed into the muddy Vedder River.

Partisan mischief is to be expected, even in the course of a rural, provincial byelection campaign. But this contest is different than others; in Chilliwack-Hope, the stakes are exceptionally high. There’s some desperation in the air.

This was Liberal country. For a decade, B.C.’s ruling party could count on right-leaning voters to elect their local candidates. Now its coalition is crumbling province-wide, and there’s a three-way race in Chilliwack-Hope.

Voters choose the byelection winner Thursday and while the race is still too close to call, change is almost certain.

“We could have the first Conservative elected in B.C. in the last 34 years,” says that party’s candidate in Chilliwack-Hope, a university criminologist named John Martin. “That would be a game-changer.”

It’s not just wishful thinking. A Conservative win on Thursday would indeed launch a new era in B.C. provincial politics, says Royce Koop, a public policy professor at Simon Fraser University. “I can’t emphasize enough how important it would be,” he says. “It would fundamentally change B.C. politics.”

The Conservatives received a huge boost last month when local MLA John van Dongen, a Liberal, joined their ranks, giving them a seat in the legislature. Electing a second member to sit in Victoria would give them more legitimacy and a higher profile, says Prof. Koop.

The Liberals, he says, “seem to be falling apart.” Recent province-wide polls indicate the Liberals and Conservatives have the same level of support — around 23% — and are well behind the NDP, which is expected to win the other byelection to be held Thursday, in Port Moody-Coquitlam.

Losing a suburban riding would hurt; losing in the Fraser Valley, where Liberal support has been rock solid, could be catastrophic. In the short term, it would likely mean more defections and attacks on party leader Christy Clark, who will face the electorate in a provincial vote in May 2013.

Don’t write off the Premier, warns Mr. Koop. “She’s smart,” he says. But her messaging is inconsistent and she’s prone to gaffes. The Conservatives are exploiting Ms. Clark’s weaknesses and are casting themselves as the real champions of free enterprise, straight talk and accountability. “The Conservatives don’t have any millstones around their necks, like the Liberals,” says Mr. Koop.

How does the government convince voters to ignore the last few years of controversy and ineptitude? There was the compromised sale of provincial Crown jewel B.C. Rail and an ensuing corruption trial; it ended with surprise guilty pleas from two Liberal government staffers. Taxpayers were stuck with their $6-million legal bill. The provincial NDP and Conservatives have both promised a full inquiry into the B.C. Rail affair. The Liberals introduced a carbon tax, unpopular especially in rural B.C. The Conservatives have pledged to get rid of it. The harmonized sales tax fiasco still rankles, everywhere. It chased Ms. Clark’s predecessor, Gordon Campbell, from electoral politics.

None of these miscues were the current Premier’s doing; Ms. Clark returned to office last year after a long interregnum. But she hasn’t wowed party loyalists, nor has she many strong allies inside her own caucus. Her political instincts seem rusty. That or she takes poor advice.

Premier Clark planned to kick off her party’s byelection campaign in Chilliwack-Hope with a speech at a local private school. Fine, except the province’s public schoolteachers were on strike. They showed up to protest the event. The Premier cancelled her appearance.

Not a great start for the party’s candidate. Laurie Throness is a veteran political operative who worked behind the scenes for the old B.C. Social Credit party, the federal Reform and Alliance parties, and then the federal Conservatives. In Ottawa, he served as chief of staff to a well-respected Tory Cabinet minister, Chuck Strahl, who also comes from the Fraser Valley.

Their relationship endures. Mr. Strahl left politics last year but endorses Mr. Throness; he even appears in Liberal party advertisements, taking aim at the provincial Conservatives. “They are not the same party as the federal Conservatives,” the ads have Mr. Strahl saying. “Sure, [the Liberals] have made mistakes, but on the big things they’re on the right track.”

The NDP candidate in Chilliwack-Hope is Gwen O’Mahony, who describes herself as health advocate at a home for adults with developmental disabilities.

Mr. Martin, the Conservative candidate, has the highest profile of the three, thanks to his long teaching career at the University of the Fraser Valley and to the provocative opinion columns he writes for local newspapers; these caught the eye of party leader, John Cummins, who recruited the professor last year.

Mr. Martin is a rare breed: A tough-on-crime academic who eschews political orthodoxy such as climate change and encourages others to do the same. “Many are completely fed up with the reckless hysteria and junk science the climate change thesis is founded on,” Mr. Martin once wrote in the Vancouver Province, turning his sights on “the four least memorable, demonstrably inept prime ministers of the last half-century [who had] gathered for a sad call to combat climate change: John Turner, Joe Clark, Kim Campbell and Paul Martin…. No doubt the coalition was waiting for return calls from Jean Chrétien and Brian Mulroney but ultimately had to settle on the B-team.”

Blunt talk. Maybe another, more lasting sign of things to come.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Here, reproduced in accordance with the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act, from Saturday's Globe and Mail, Gary Mason tells us why the two by-elections mean so much for Christy Clark.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/british-columbia/gary_mason/bc-liberals-desperately-seeking-a-by-election-game-changer/article2402295/

My prediction...

Port Moody will go NDP.

If the BC Conservatives win in Chilliwack, the implosion of the BC Liberals will quicken exponentially, and I doubt Premier Clark will last the year.  More MLA's will leave caucus and there may even be a caucus revolt.  The BC Conservatives will be the strongest of the "free-enterprise" parties, but the NDP will win in 2013.

If the NDP win in Chilliwack, the implosion will slow down, as Premier Clark can argue that a vote for the Tories is a vote for the NDP.  The BC Liberals will continue to bungle along and the NDP will win in 2013 anyways.

Either way, the 2013 election is the NDP's to lose.

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, are the results:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/british-columbia/bc-politics/ndp-takes-away-two-liberal-bastions-in-bc-by-elections/article2408527/

NDP takes away two Liberal bastions in B.C. by-elections

PATRICK BRETHOUR, IAN BAILEY AND JUSTINE HUNTER

Port Moody and Chilliwack— Globe and Mail Update
Published Friday, Apr. 20, 2012

The NDP have swept to a decisive victory in both British Columbia by-elections – including a landslide win in an area where the party has not won since provincial elections began more than a century ago.

The results – particularly in Chilliwack-Hope, an area where a left-wing party has never won – are what the NDP hoped for and the B.C. Liberals had feared. A split in the right-of-centre vote tore down what had been two Liberal bastions, with the NDP scoring clear wins in both.

In Port Moody-Coquitlam, former Port Moody mayor Joe Trasolini scored an outright majority, with 54 per cent of the vote, with all polls reporting; B.C. Liberal Dennis Marsden trailed with 30 per cent; B.C. Conservative Christine Clarke had 15 per cent.

In Chilliwack-Hope, the NDP margin of victory was narrower, with Gwen O’Mahony scoring 41 per cent, with all polls reporting. B.C. Liberal Laurie Throness received 31 per cent; B.C. Conservative John Martin, 25 per cent.

The split in the right-of-centre vote in Chilliwack handed victory to the NDP – but the combined Liberal-Conservative vote tally was lower than in the 2009 general election, indicating the NDP has had some success in peeling away left-leaning Liberal voters.

The by-elections have been fought not just for the seats, but as a way to shape the political narrative of the months leading up to the May, 2013 general election.

In a statement released by her office, Premier Christy Clark said the results showed a split of the right-of-centre vote among her B.C. Liberals and the B.C. Conservatives. “It’s never been clearer that only a unified free enterprise coalition can defeat the NDP,” she said in the statement.

For NDP Leader Adrian Dix, the results are proof that his party is ready to expel the Liberals from power after more than a decade in opposition. “Quite a night,” said an ebullient Mr. Dix, his voice cracked from cheering at a packed Chilliwack restaurant. “It’s a substantial win. Seventy per cent of voters voted against the government tonight.”

The New Democrats expanded their share of the vote and gained a toehold in the Fraser Valley: “it shows when people are given a real choice, the NDP is going to gain votes,” he said.

The third-place results were disappointing for the Conservatives, whose leader vowed a better showing in the 2013 general election. “Next time out, we’ll have a better organization on the ground,” John Cummins told reporters. Mr. Cummins denied that his party split the centre-right vote and handed victory to the New Democrats. “The Liberal vote disintegrated, our vote is solid,” he said.

The B.C. Liberals sought to regain popularity by changing leaders last year, but the party has fared little better under Premier Clark. Battered by the introduction of the harmonized sales tax, the governing B.C. Liberals have since sunk far in the polls, with two recent opinion surveys showing them neck in neck with the B.C. Conservatives – with both parties well behind the NDP.

The B.C. Liberals won handily in both Port-Moody-Coquitlam and Chilliwack-Hope in the 2009 general election, racking up double-digit margins over the NDP.

The 2012 by-elections delivered a much different result, underscoring the seismic shift in B.C. politics in the last two and a half years – underscored by the fact that both the NDP and Conservative candidates in the Port Moody-Coquitlam race are former B.C. Liberals.

In 2009, the Liberals won Port Moody-Coquitlam with 52 per cent of vote compared to 40 per cent for the B.C. NDP, with the Green Party third with 6 per cent.

There was no B.C. Conservative candidate in the race. Indeed, the current B.C. Conservative candidate Christine Clarke worked in that campaign as a volunteer for the Liberal victor, Iain Black.

The B.C. New Democrats recruited Mr. Trasolini, who came to provincial politics after 15 years in Port Moody municipal politics. The popular mayor was once a B.C. Liberal, and chaired Premier Clark’s first successful MLA campaign in 1995, but dropped his partisan affiliation after being elected mayor.

Mr. Marsden, the B.C. Liberal candidate, is a branch manager for a credit union and a former treasurer for the Eagle Ridge Hospital Foundation.

The Chilliwack-Hope area has been a traditional stronghold for centre-right parties, switching from Social Credit to B.C. Liberal in 1991.

In 2009, B.C. Liberal Barry Penner defeated Ms. O’Mahony by a comfortable 20-point margin, with 53 per cent to her 33 per cent. In that contest, the B.C. Conservative candidate took just 7 per cent, with the Greens at 6 per cent.

Mr. Penner, who held the riding since 1996, stepped down in January.

Mr. Penner’s would-be successor, Mr. Throness, was chosen by the party for his strong federal Conservative ties, in the hopes that he could bring back disaffected B.C. Liberals. Mr. Throness was chief of staff to the popular former Conservative MP for the region, Chuck Strahl.

His rival for right-of-centre votes has a higher profile in the community. Mr. Martin, a university professor and popular local newspaper columnist, ran a low-budget campaign but tried to capitalize on the B.C. Liberals’ sagging support.

It appears, to me, that the "not the NDP" split must produce one of two results:

1. A massive shift from Liberal to Conservative in about a year; or, more likely

2. An NDP government in BC in 2013.

 

[Zartan]

What I find most surprising was that the Conservatives finished in third - effectively last - in both ridings. I was expecting, and to some degree, hoping, for better out of them. With that in mind the article comments on the above are surprisingly insightful, as in some are in some way...

 

[Rifleman62]

What do you expect from residents who vote for a party to govern that nearly bankrupt the province; twice! (BC or ON????)

 

[RangerRay]

The big winner is the NDP.  The BIG losers are both the BC Liberals and BC Conservatives.

Of these races, I expected the BCCP to come in at least second in Chilliwack.  Although they increased their numbers a lot in both by-elections, it would appear that they are still perceived to be "not ready for prime-time".

Alex Tsakumis has a good run down:

http://alexgtsakumis.com/2012/04/20/the-2012-bc-by-elections-media-shamefulness-christys-cowardice-the-bc-liberals-fumbling-the-bc-ndp-embracing-fundamentals-and-the-bc-conservatives-embracing-fundamentalists/

The 2012 BC By-Elections: Media SHAMEFULNESS; Christy’s Cowardice; the BC Liberals Fumbling; the BC NDP Embracing Fundamentals and The BC Conservatives Embracing Fundamentalists

The NDP swept to an unprecedented victory in both Chilliwack and Port Moody last night. For the Opposition it was truly a banner night. They were organized, well-funded and coherent in their messaging. They ran superb campaigns in both ridings and their candidates were popular and committed to local issues blended with general themes of change.

The BC Liberals saved themselves, but only a little. Their second place finish in both ridings is a Pyrrhic victory. The truth is that no matter how much they whine and wail about vote splitting, the examples they cite clearly show that they are either incredibly dim or completely unglued. The Premier, by this evening will have been hiding for exactly a full day. She is not available for comment today and delivered the usual drivel about keeping the free enterprise coalition together.

But it’s the examples she gives that demonstrate how foolish she truly is: 1991 and 1996 were years of vote-splitting.

NO THEY WERE NOT, YOU DUNCE! In 1991, it was actually the BC Liberals (her party!) that did any vote-splitting, but too, they ran lousy candidates and couldn’t get any money through the door. Gordon Wilson was in the midst of tongue hockey with a member of his own caucus and the Socreds were in complete freefall. That’s vote splitting? Don’t buy this incredible bunkum coming from the BC Liberals. Vote-splitting, true vote-splitting, happens when even sides, with limited discredit and fishing from the same pond. To add stupidity to confusion with respect to the Premier’s remarks, in 1996, the BC Liberals actually WON the popular vote but lost the general election because of Gordon Campbell’s position on….BC Rail. It was a very poorly run campaign and Glen Clark was extremely savvy in his messaging. It has NOTHING to do with vote-splitting. Christy Clark is delusional.

The BC Conservative were by far and away the biggest losers last night. Particularly in Chilliwack, where if they had an organization worth speaking of, they would have soared. The buckle of the Bible Belt staring them in the face and a group of far-right, doctrinaire, stubborn but inexperienced and pompous operatives couldn’t deliver. Shameful. Port Moody should also have been a much better result for Christine Clarke, but their vote collapsed in the last few days as scare-mongering by Dennis Marsden and Paurie Throness started to take it’s toll.

However, if you look at the vote share comparison from the 2009 general election, their is some, very limited take away from these devastating losses that the Conservatives can take a little, very little, comfort in.

Have a look:

    Vote Share Comparison: (By-Election vs 2009 Provincial General Election)

    Port Moody-Coquitlam
    Christine Clarke (Conservative): 15.4% (+15.4%)
    Dennis Marsden (Liberal): 30.2% (-22.0%)
    Joe Trasolini (NDP): 54.4% (+14.6%)

    Chilliwack-Hope
    Libertarian: 2.10% (+2.10%)
    BC Conservative: 25.32% (+18.22%)
    BC Liberal: 31.39% (-21.89%)
    BC NDP: 41.19% (+7.76%)

Of course, you won’t likely see this in the mainstream press, because BC Liberal lickspittles like Sean Leslie, Tom Fletcher, Bill Good and Keith Baldrey can’t bring themselves to either do the not-very-heavy lifting of providing you the evidence or, frankly, telling you the truth.

The above chart eviscerates the vote-splitting argument. Why? Well, it’s quite simple, really. Dimbells like Leslie were merely adding together the two percentages last night on BC Liberal radio, (Conservative and Liberal) and declaring it a vote split.

They don’t take into consideration the undecideds or the MASSIVE swath of voters who didn’t turn out for one reason or another. But that gets too complicated and doesn’t help their friend Christy with the shoveling of lies.

Here’s the clincher:

Barely 3 in 10 voters are still with the Liberals, if these two ridings provide an accurate reflection of the numbers. This is DEVASTATING news for Christy Clark. It is directly connected to her failed leadership and a corrupt party.

In actual fact, BC Conservatives were up 18% (3.5 times 2009 numbers) in Chilliwack from their fringe party campaign in the last general election. This is impressive given they were massively outspent. The inner suburbs remain a problem for them although 15% is leaps and bounds ahead of where they were in Metro Vancouver in 2009.

Another interesting figure is that the NDP candidate in Chilliwack, Gwen O’Mahoney, retained all the votes she got in the 2009 general election and then some. In Chilliwack, the NDP appears to have run the best election day get out of the vote (GOTV) campaign, but with numbers like that it’s clear that the NDP expanded their base and are the clear and unequivocal choice for change in BC.

Now…the specifics of the take away for each party:

BC NDP: CHANGE NOTHING. You’re doing a terrific job lulling people to sleep with the warm blanket of hope. We know you’re going to win the next election because Dianne Watts refuses to save the idiots in the BC Liberal caucus and would never endorse the socially offside BC Conservatives. Change not a thing. You will get your chance to ruin BC’s economy and you’ll be banished in five years if you do, for good. On the specific points of the campaigns: Shiny, happy people helps. Adrian Dix was the personification of composure and charm. Local candidates with a solid grasp of the issues. And I am impressed with the number of young people you continue to attract. You’ve sold yourselves nicely. Altogether a great night, well done.

Action items: NONE. Truly, my compliments, you did much better than I expected and even expanded your vote in traditionally non-NDP pockets of both Port Moody and Chilliwack. Very, very impressive. And most importantly, BOTH your candidates ran positive campaigns minus the usual NDP hard-assed nonsense.

BC Liberals: Stop lying to the public. It’s getting you nowhere. And you’re going absolutely nowhere with Christy Clark at the helm. A split in the coalition??? Absolutely; that happened the second you allowed the corrupt and dishonest federal Liberal machine that has been pimping her for her whole political career, to install Christy as Premier–and by cheating to win, at that. You want no more split in the coalition? Fine. No problem. GET RID OF HER YOU IMBECILES. The millstone around your neck is a woman who can’t walk and chew gum at the same time. She’s a nightmare and you know it. Get rid of her and the BC Conservatives will eventually deflate, as there was a fear factor in the vote last night that doesn’t bode well for the BC Conservatives and they received enough money to properly run half of one campaign.

Action Items: One and one only. You have to get rid of Christy Clark–NOW. Last night was very much a referendum on her leadership. There is a reason why people are flocking to a serially stubborn, socially stunted septaugenarian. It’s because your girl is a political fraud artist and they see right through her. Stop the BS and deal with the issue. Don’t bitch about vote-splitting unless you’re prepared to get rid of her–period, end of story. Oh, and Ken Bossenkool, yes, that means you…stop calling prominent BC Conservatives (as you did today) and trying to make peace. As long as Dummy is Premier, no peace, no nothing. Get that through your Enbridge, bitumen-soaked brain.

BC Conservatives: Dear Lord…where to begin. Firstly, the children playing with the car keys in the backroom received a serious reality check last night. The up in popular vote can be attributed mostly to a protest against Christy and the Liberals. You’re all dreaming if you think you can continue as you are. You can’t, you’ve failed, accept it. You need to fire Pastor Reed Elley, who as you’re President is a FAILURE. A real President would be traveling the province and building your infrastructure. And don’t give me the line about money. If you weren’t so stubborn and didn’t elect a man infamous for his bigoted commentaries, you’d be a lot further along. A real President would’ve been in the two ridings drumming up support, but although still in the buckle of the Bible Belt, the demographics to both Port Moody and Chilliwack have changed. You can’t sell bigotry, you fools…I suppose you can continue to try, since the easy assumption is that you agree with such statements. Secondly, there is a reason why my nicnaming John Cummins as ‘Herman Munster’ has stuck. He’s aloof, wooden, block-headed, rarely on the mark (it’s taken him a year to finally explain his ridiculous, ancient views on gay marriage, but altogether lovable enough. That makes for a terrific grandfather, not premier. You need a new leader. And you can’t sit there and be as recalcitrant or pig-headed as you want. His messaging is off and he doesn’t have the royal jelly to win or get you much further. Lastly, did you notice who was conspicuous by his absence in the by-elections? John vanDongen. Remember him? The guy who is carrying the entire BC Rail file on his back (and his wallet). I haven’t, but maybe one of you geniuses should ask him why he wasn’t around much. Idiots…can’t even see the message staring you straight in the face. The majority of this province is NOT socially conservative. You are LOADED with anti-abortionists (so forget the woman’s vote) and anti-gay bigots (so say goodbye to the votes of independent moderates). You can’t win without a significant portion of either. Stupid people. Wake UP! Lose the fundamentalist goo from your ears! BC ain’t Evangelical! Spinning, too far, and relentlessly twisting the impoverished nature of your current station isn’t helping. You’re not ready for prime time and you DON’T get it. ( http://www.bcconservative.ca/news/cummins-by-elections-show-voters-abandoning-the-liberals-in-droves/ )

Now, in case you haven’t thrown up a little in your mouths lately, perhaps have a plastic bag quite ready before you read the following.

The mainstream press in this province remain a DISGRACE as they continue to shill for Christy and her pals. Notables…

(1) CTV: Every time I try to give them an up ( I LOVE ROB BROWN AND KERI ADAMS during the early news show–more of this please!) they disappoint again. If any of you caught Tamara Taggart fumbling and bumbling through an interview yesterday during the dinner hour (absolutely lovely gal, but totally out of her depth), you will have been appalled by two things: Firstly, that she isn’t instead wearing a beanie, and blowing bubbles with Regis in the green room (uneven skills) and secondly, that she was interviewing former BC Liberal Attorney General Geoff Plant,  WHO SHE INTRODUCED AS A POLITICAL COMMENTATOR!!!!!!! Since when did this buffoon become a political commentator??? You MUST be kidding…? But, once again, BC Rail in the paint…he was Attorney General when Basi and Virk were charged. His Ministry either missed or ignored ample evidence suggesting the current Premier committed a breach of trust by leaking sensitive Cabinet information to Erik Bornmann and Brian Kieran–admitted bribers of public officials. His Ministry missed recommending charges against his party’s executive director, who was caught on wiretap evidence offering Dave Basi and clear bribe. You think this blithering clod Plant wants to be answering questions at a judicial inquiry? Of course not, so, he’s going to do everything he can to spike the media messaging in favour of Dummy. Commentator? Plant? More like plant life….

(2) CKNW MUST CHANGE THEIR NAME to BC Liberal radio. It’s now painful to listen to anything the biased Sean Leslie utters. The only class of their coverage last night was Simi Sara, who you could tell was getting annoyed and tired of Leslie’s constant dumbassisms about vote-splitting and his too thinly veiled fist-pumping for his govt pals with the BC Liberals (his wife’s employers). I wonder if he was fed some of those lines by his buddy in the Preem’s office, Shane Mills. Drinks anyone??? But the biggest joke of the night was a chap named Mike Morton. Don’t know him? He’s now being treated as a credible commentator by CKNW as well!!!!! He’s Gordon Campbell’s former staffer and a staunch Christy supporter, who….here comes that train again…BC Rail, was involved in stacking phone calls and political meetings, having expensive dinners with the Pilothouse boys–all in wiretap and email evidence presented at trial–all coordinated through the oh-so-talented Dave Basi, who Morton claims to have known very little–contrary to evidence presented at the ‘Basi-Virk’ trial and collected during the previous investigation. Morton is supposed to be an unbiased commentator? Absurd….pathetic…ridiculous.

(3) Website for sale for rent….The dimwits at Shitty Caucus are at it again. Other than being flamed in the TWITterverse last night by angry questioners–about their total bias in favour of Premier Dummy–they really embarrass themselves further today by offering up the single most ridiculous commentary by ANYONE with respect to the by-elections last night: Penned by one Suzanne Anton (who they are quietly promoting as the next BC Liberal candidate for Quilchena). Man alive, it’s like these fools stole the playbook to the Swedish Touch…same old tired girls, same old rub…but money’s good!

And finally a very Happy (48th) Birthday to my friend Adrian Dix. We won’t agree on much politically, but he’s a decent guy, who will get a thoroughly rough ride at the hands of the Kinsella-adivsed Clark camp. Many happy returns, Adrian.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Here is an analysis of the shape of things to come in BC reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/british-columbia/bc-politics/shakeup-urged-for-lost-cause-bc-liberals/article2409937/singlepage/#articlecontent

Shakeup urged for ‘lost cause’ B.C. Liberals

JUSTINE HUNTER

CHILLIWACK, B.C.— From Saturday's Globe and Mail
Published Saturday, Apr. 21, 2012

At a chic Fraser Valley restaurant on Thursday night, New Democrats thronged around the bar for “infused martinis” to down with their salmon canapés. The reason for the euphoria was displayed on a monitor behind the busy bartender, a simple grid showing the by-election voting results broken down by neighbourhood. In almost every part of Chilliwack-Hope, NDP candidate Gwen O’Mahony was in first place.

“That’s a new front here,” Ms. O’Mahony noted. Chilliwack voters have never sent a left-of-centre politician to Victoria before.

As the New Democrats revelled in their breakthrough, two parties at the other end of the political spectrum exchanged bitter barbs about who should take the blame for the NDP victory.

On Thursday, voters in Chilliwack-Hope, and to a lesser extent, Port Moody-Coquitlam, delivered a split verdict on the centre-right parties. The B.C. Conservatives’ share grew – but with no money or campaign apparatus, they remained mired in third place. What they did manage to do was damage the B.C. Liberals’ claim to be the sole representative of the “free enterprise” coalition.

Now, the war of attrition between the centre-right parties begins, and it may not be decided before the general election in May, 2013.

Some long-time B.C. Liberals are steeling themselves for a return of New Democratic Party government next year. Only then, they believe, will the pressure build for a new free enterprise coalition.

The Premier’s Office is not among this group – chief of staff Ken Boessenkool began to reach out to senior B.C. Conservatives on Friday. Mr. Boessenkool’s goal is to find out if a reunified right-of-centre party can be forged in time for the next election. That could mean a new name – but not a new leader.

Others are pushing for an even more urgent and massive overhaul – perhaps a new leader – in a bid to restore the coalition before the next campaign.

“Chilliwack is a prime example of a seat that should never go NDP,” said John Reynolds, a prominent federal Conservative who is now calling for a convention – not of the B.C. Liberals, but of centre-right voters – to establish a new party. “I had a business leader say to me the other day, ‘I’m not giving to the B.C. Liberals, they are a lost cause.’ We have to change that.”

Business leader Philip Hochstein, an opponent of the B.C. New Democrats, questioned whether Premier Christy Clark is the one to lead that new entity.

“If there is no way to have unanimity, then we lose the election. How that comes about and who brings that together, I’m not sure who that is,” he said in an interview.

He’ll be at the Premier’s fundraising dinner in June, but he is ambivalent about Ms. Clark’s insistence that she is the leader who will be on the ballot. “It’s obviously not resonating with half the people on the right. Something is amiss and I don’t know what the secret sauce is, but we have to figure it out.”

The NDP opposition gained two seats in the legislature this week, but it also demonstrated what could happen next year: In a three-way race, the NDP would be the winner. It didn’t take long after the results were in for Ms. Clark to offer her analysis: “It's never been clearer that only a unified free-enterprise coalition can defeat the NDP.”

But the B.C. Conservatives, having seen their vote in Chilliwack-Hope grow to a respectable 25 per cent from 7 per cent in the 2009 election, saw no reason to back down from this fight. “The Liberal vote disintegrated,” Leader John Cummins observed, watching the results at the party’s spartan campaign headquarters in Chilliwack on Thursday night. If voters want change, he maintained, his party will be there as an alternative to the NDP.

There is a rhythm to these upheavals on the centre-right.

Throughout B.C. history, the coalition of federal Liberals and Conservatives that is crucial to winning elections tends to fall apart under stress. Talk of uniting under a new banner or a new leader begins.

In 1952, the Liberal-Conservative coalition imploded and the Social Credit formed the government, narrowly defeating the precursor to the NDP, the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation.

The Socred dynasty lost its grip in 1972 – the NDP won with just 39 per cent of the popular vote because three parties split the centre-right support. The Socreds rose again under a new leader, Bill Bennett, who brought Liberals and Conservatives back into the fold to regain power in 1975.

Hugh Curtis was elected as a Conservative in B.C. in 1972 and crossed the floor to join Mr. Bennett’s fresh start. As a coalition veteran, Mr. Curtis doesn’t believe the parties led by Ms. Clark and Mr. Cummins are ready for convergence.

It took new leadership to rebuild the Socred party, he said. B.C. voters seem to be in a similar mood now: “Maybe the electorate is looking for something new and different, a new person, whoever that may be.”

The Socred-led coalition again fractured, and the NDP regained power in 1991. This time, the B.C. Liberals emerged as the dominant centre-right party.

The B.C. Liberals have been in office since 2001. But Ms. Clark hasn’t yet undone the damage wrought by the ham-fisted introduction of the harmonized sales tax.

A year into her mandate, party insiders say, financial contributions are below what is needed to wage a full election campaign. Like Mr. Reynolds’s business pal, some are simply not willing to hand over money until Ms. Clark can demonstrate she can put the coalition back together.

This week, the Premier suggested a solution to fix the B.C. Liberal brand: she’s willing to junk the party name.

But a name change might not be enough to address the deep-seated problems that have dogged Ms. Clark’s tenure. Despite her efforts to shore up the party’s conservative support, Chilliwack-Hope voters demonstrated there is still a pull to another vehicle.

Business leader Peter Armstrong, owner of Rocky Mountaineer, has been a significant contributor to the B.C. Liberal coffers, and he says he will still open his wallet for the party come the next election. However, he acknowledged that the business community is worried about the collapse of the coalition. “Everyone is on edge – it’s kind of like with the Canucks,” he said.

But he added that Ms. Clark should be given a chance to lead the rebuilding effort.

“I haven’t heard one person say they would give one nickel to the Conservatives,” he said. “We need to give Christy time to coalesce the caucus, to establish what she stands for.”

With the next election campaign starting in less than a year, that time comes with a limit.

My sense, derived, mainly, from Ranger Ray's comments here on Army.ca, is that neither a name change nor a Christie Clark rebuild will do the job. Given the (apparent?) poor state of the BC Conservative Party's finances a year is probably not enough time to emulate Wildrose in Alberta.

 

[RangerRay]

Another reason why the BC Conservatives will not emulate Wildrose anytime soon is because the corporate backers on Howe Street has not been attracted to support the Tories.  Whereas the Calgary oil and gas sector started supporting Wildrose after Mr. Stelmach started to target the industry for royalties and regulation, Howe Street continues to benefit from BC Liberal policies and is scared ****less of a return of the NDP.  While they may be currently sitting on their wallets, they are not flocking to Mr. Cummins.

Until the BC Conservatives can get Howe Street to open up their wallets to support them, they will remain little more than a populist protest vote for conservative voters.

 

[Rifleman62]

http://www.bclocalnews.com/opinion/148703375.html?c=y&curSection=/&curTitle=BC+Opinion&bc09=true

Imagining an NDP government

By Tom Fletcher - BC Local News  Published: April 24, 2012

VICTORIA – NDP victories in two byelections bring the standings in the legislature to 46 B.C. Liberals, 36 NDP and three independents, one of whom has pledged allegiance to the B.C. Conservatives.

B.C. Conservative leader John Cummins put a brave face on his third-place finish in Port Moody-Coquitlam and Chilliwack-Hope. Even in bedrock conservative Fraser Valley farm country, in a protest byelection with a high-profile candidate, the B.C. Conservatives managed to attract just enough to deliver a landmark NDP seat.

The NDP was helped by the absence of the B.C. Green Party on the byelection ballots, with most of its five-per-cent support from 2009 presumably going to the winners.

Cummins said his party’s goal going into the Port Moody-Coquitlam vote, with an unknown candidate and a handful of volunteers, was to break 10 per cent. They got 15 per cent and he declared a moral victory.

Cummins rejected a possible merger with the “discredited” B.C. Liberals. Premier Christy Clark was equally emphatic that she will be the leader of the “free enterprise coalition” in the 2013 election. So the stage is set for an NDP majority government.

What will that look like? Well, Port Moody mayor-turned-MLA Joe Trasolini has a wealth of local government experience, so pencil him in as municipal affairs minister. A long-time supporter of the B.C. Liberals, Trasolini should clarify if he endorses the NDP constitution, which still opposes all profit-making activity.

He’s not the only high-profile newcomer likely to be included in an Adrian Dix cabinet.

New NDP candidates from union executive ranks will likely include long-time Hospital Employees’ Union president Judy Darcy. She no longer talks about bringing a “Marxist analysis” to economic matters. Darcy is now best known for leading the long court battle against the B.C. Liberal government’s contract-breaking legislation of 2002.

The eventual decision of the Supreme Court of Canada basically invented a constitutional right to collective bargaining. (The high court could also ponder if there might be a right not to belong to a union, but that’s another story.)

Then there’s George Heyman, the long-time B.C. Government Employees’ Union president.

After leaving the BCGEU, Heyman has taken a turn as executive director of Sierra Club B.C., a branch plant of the U.S. enviro-machine that works against B.C. forest, mining, power and petroleum development.

These folks would be working with Stephen Howard, who went from senior positions at the BCGEU and CUPE to his current role as Dix’s chief of staff. Dix, of course, benefited from the sudden ouster of Carole James, who made the mistake of trying to loosen big labour’s grip on the NDP and modernize some of its quaint 1930s notions.

Then we have B.C.’s third-largest political party, the B.C. Teachers’ Federation, which has already confirmed it will continue its long campaign to replace the B.C. Liberals with the NDP next year.

Such a team brings impressive experience, but unfortunately for taxpayers, much of that experience has been in extracting money from the public treasury.

And if recent B.C. history is any guide, this fundamental conflict of interest will receive little or no media attention in the months to come.

Instead, the conventional wisdom will be that voters want “change.”

Tom Fletcher is legislative reporter and columnist for Black Press and BCLocalnews.com

 

[Rifleman62]

http://www.burnabynow.com/technology/Ottawa+could+ugly/6590287/story.html

B.C. vs Ottawa: It could get ugly

By Keith Baldrey, Freelance May 9, 2012

After more than a decade of fairly good relations, things are likely to get a bit ugly between the federal government and the B.C. government.

With the prospect of Adrian Dix and the NDP taking over the reins of government looking more and more likely, the stage is being set for a clash of ideologies on a number of issues. Chief among them is environmental protection and, more specifically, the proposed Enbridge pipeline in Northern British Columbia. While the federal government's weakening of the environmental process is a cause for concern for New Democrats, it is the pipeline that really drives them up the wall.

Dix and the NDP caucus are adamantly opposed to the project, and the Harper government is just as determined to see it come to fruition.

Last week, the NDP caucus wrote an 11-page letter to the joint review panel for the project, articulating its opposition to the pipeline. They cited a variety of concerns, including fears the project could lead to a massive oil spill.

This wasn't just a throwaway position that could conceivably be changed later. This was a detailed, point-by-point rejection of arguably the number 1 industrial priority of the Harper government.

The importance the federal government is placing on the Enbridge pipeline cannot be overstated. It considers the moving of products from Alberta's oil sands to Asian markets as a cornerstone of the country's economic strategy for years to come.

Further evidence of the Tories' attachment to the pipeline project is its strange determination to paint the environmental movement as some sort of deranged cult financed by mysterious international sources.

This kind of demonization is going to be laughed at in British Columbia, where the importance of environmental protection cuts a wide swath across all party lines. This is the province that produced Greenpeace, after all, and it is where the environmental movement successfully forced massive changes in forest practices, among other things.

Environmental protection is a value ingrained in many British Columbians, and it's not surprising that opinion polls show there is more opposition to the Enbridge pipeline than support for it in this province.

A big chunk of NDP supporters also hold strong environmental values and will be particularly offended by the Harper government's tactics. The federal government seems to be drawing a line in the sand on this issue, making it clear that Alberta's interests trump those of British Columbia.

Placed against this backdrop, it's hard to see any chance of even a remotely warm relationship between Dix and Harper. Add to it the Tories' insistence on a crackdown on crime that will add cost pressures to the provinces and other ideologically based policies, and we have the perfect recipe for serious tensions emerging between Victoria and Ottawa.

As many predicted, now that the Tories have a majority government their right-wing ideology is shaping more and more of their policies.

This also creates a problem, but as well perhaps an opportunity, for Premier Christy Clark. As Dix and the NDP inevitably find themselves criticizing the federal government more and more on various issues, it will be interesting to see where Clark comes down on those same issues.

She has yet to take a position on the Enbridge pipeline, insisting not enough evidence has been produced to allow for an informed opinion on it.

I'm not sure how long she can stay on the fence, particularly as the issue heats up, as it undoubtedly will.

Clark needs to find an issue or two that resonate with the public if she has any chance of winning re-election. Dix has already staked out his position when it comes to the Harper government, and it's likely one that will shore up his party's popularity in this province. Will Clark try to share that turf?

If she does, it will mean the cordial, even warm, relationship that has existed between the B.C. government and the one in Ottawa for more than a decade will be over. And if Dix does indeed become premier, that relationship will be icy at best and downright ugly at worst.

Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global B.C.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Another blow to BC Premier Christie Clark's fortunes according to this report which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/bc-finance-minister-kevin-falcon-steps-down-wont-run-in-2013/article4507630/

B.C. Finance Minister Kevin Falcon steps down, won’t run in 2013

WENDY STUECK
Vancouver — The Globe and Mail

Published Wednesday, Aug. 29 2012

B.C. Finance Minister Kevin Falcon says he’s resigning immediately and won’t seek re-election in next May’s provincial election.

Though he will stay on as MLA, his resignation is another blow to the Liberal party's sagging fortunes.

Mr. Falcon, a failed contender for the Liberal leadership last year, has been signalling since last spring he was reconsidering his future since getting married and becoming the father of a daughter. He announced at a news conference Wednesday that he and his wife are expecting their second child in February.

“Those familiar with the role of a Minister of Finance know that the lead up to a budget and its delivery in February is a time of great stress and pressure," he said in a statement released to the media. “I am looking forward to participating in this exciting event, unburdened by the demands of the office.”

He said he told Premier Christy Clark of his decision this morning, saying he wanted to ensure she had time to choose a successor as the party heads toward a difficult May 2013 election.

“I think its very important for the premier to have a minister of finance who, throughout the fall, is putting together an administrative agenda ... that they are prepared to fight for during an election,” Mr. Falcon said at the news conference.

Ms. Clark quickly issued a statement calling Mr. Falcon “the hardest working finance minister in the country.”

She thanked him for helping British Columbia retain its triple-A credit rating “despite the worst global recession in generations.”

Ms. Clark, who quit politics herself once before citing family reasons, said she understands the difficulty of balancing family and public life.

Ms. Clark's statement also said Shirley Bond would step in as acting finance minister.

Ms. Bond currently serves as the Attorney General and Minister of Public Safety, as well as Deputy Chair of the Treasury Board and alternate finance minister.

Mr. Falcon was a key member of Ms. Clark’s government and the coalition that she must maintain to have a hope of winning the next election.

Mr. Falcon, who placed second to Ms. Clark in last year’s leadership campaign, comes from the side of the party that leans Conservative federally, while Ms. Clark had always been federally aligned with the Liberals.

The Liberals have been badly faltering in the polls as some of her right-of-centre supporters flee to support the fledgling B.C. Conservative Party, and support for the Opposition New Democrats surges.

In response to questions, Mr. Falcon said it was not fair to say that experienced members of the Liberal cabinet were jumping ship as polls indicate the party is in trouble.

“You can’t say that because they are leaving, they’re jumping ship,” he told reporters. “Every single election, we’ve lost incredibly good people.”

Former Liberal finance ministers Gary Collins and Carole Taylor also stepped down from the position, he added.

“These things happen – and it does not mean people are abandoning ships or whatever, it means that people are making decisions about their future and they’ve thought very carefully about it.”

B.C. Chamber of Commerce President John Winter said the business community will miss Mr. Falcon and wondered what comes next.

“Whether he’s replaceable, I think, is the key question, and how he is replaced,” said Mr. Winter.

“We look forward to seeing that. We would hope that the premier would replace him with somebody that keeps the same focus on fiscal management as he’s had.”

After the leadership vote in February 2011, Ms. Clark appointed Mr. Falcon finance minister, giving the Surrey-area politician the daunting task of trying to sell the hated harmonized sales tax to British Columbians.

Voters dumped the tax in a province-wide referendum and Mr. Falcon was dutifully overseeing the dismantling of the HST and guiding the return to the previous provincial sales tax, which he often referred to as a “stupid tax.”

Falcon represents the riding of Surrey-Cloverdale, was first elected in 2001 and then re-elected in 2005 and 2009. He previously served as the minister of health and the minister of transportation.

Prior to Ms. Clark’s return to B.C. politics after her stint in private life as a radio host, it was perceived that Mr. Falcon was being groomed as Mr. Campbell’s replacement.

With a report from The Canadian Press

One wonders if all the potential leaders of the non-NDP alternative are going to sit out the 2013 election and let Clark "take one for the team."

 

[Edward Campbell]

The Globe and Mail is reporting that several more prominent BC Liberals have either rsigned or announced that tey will not seek re-election next year: Education Minister George Abbott, Children’s Minister Mary McNeil and long-time Chilliwack MLA John Les.

Of course they all deny that they are rats deserting a sinking ship leaving because Liberal electoral fortunes are so poor.