• Thanks for stopping by. Logging in to a registered account will remove all generic ads. Please reach out with any questions or concerns.

Belarus Instability - August 2020

Altair

Army.ca Veteran
Reaction score
362
Points
880
Perhaps (just brainstorming here, not sure if this has merit or not) it's because of it's proximity and borders with certain EU countries, and one convenient border with Russia.
Yes, but it hurts Belarus more than it hurts those EU countries.
Maybe they fear what Belarus may do, if hit with full economic sanctions? With it's friend Russia to one side, and a border with Ukraine, que the espionage, acts of terrorism, Russian forces possibly staging from Belarus (even if just overflights or ISR assets that don't leave Belarus airspace), etc. Little green men sneaking over the border. Same risks would apply to Poland, Latvia, Lithuania.
NATO already has staging forces in those EU countries, those little green men get squashed.
The luck of geography seems to be very much on Belarus' side, unfortunately. And very much not on our side. (Opposite if armed conflict were to break out.) They could destabilize a big chunk of Europe just by pestering their neighbours if they wanted to. So maybe the sanctions just aren't seen as worth it? (Also, the sanctions would hurt the economies of countries that Belarus does trade with, too, albeit not as much.)


0.02
I am convinced that in any EU versus Belarus confrontation, the EU come out on top.

More so, when are we in the west going to stop being scared of these little asshole countries? It's getting ridiculous.

Sanctions versus the elite of the nation, which, as we have seen in the past, does absolutely nothing is the main course of action, when full punishing economic sanctions should be the course of action. If they are worried about the Belarus response, then they have lost the plot.
 

MilEME09

Army.ca Veteran
Reaction score
347
Points
910
Yes, but it hurts Belarus more than it hurts those EU countries.

NATO already has staging forces in those EU countries, those little green men get squashed.

I am convinced that in any EU versus Belarus confrontation, the EU come out on top.

More so, when are we in the west going to stop being scared of these little asshole countries? It's getting ridiculous.

Sanctions versus the elite of the nation, which, as we have seen in the past, does absolutely nothing is the main course of action, when full punishing economic sanctions should be the course of action. If they are worried about the Belarus response, then they have lost the plot.
We have to stop being afraid of hurting the people. You'd be surprised how fast a country turns if the people realize the government is doing more to hurt then help them. The post election violence didn't change things because the government controlled security forces. How many would still stick to the government once the cheques start bouncing?
 

OldSolduer

Army.ca Legend
Reaction score
803
Points
910
We have to stop being afraid of hurting the people. You'd be surprised how fast a country turns if the people realize the government is doing more to hurt then help them. The post election violence didn't change things because the government controlled security forces. How many would still stick to the government once the cheques start bouncing?
We have historical precedents. France in the late 18th century. Romania in the late 1980s.
 

CBH99

Army.ca Veteran
Donor
Reaction score
375
Points
860
Yes, but it hurts Belarus more than it hurts those EU countries.

NATO already has staging forces in those EU countries, those little green men get squashed.

I am convinced that in any EU versus Belarus confrontation, the EU come out on top.

More so, when are we in the west going to stop being scared of these little asshole countries? It's getting ridiculous.

Sanctions versus the elite of the nation, which, as we have seen in the past, does absolutely nothing is the main course of action, when full punishing economic sanctions should be the course of action. If they are worried about the Belarus response, then they have lost the plot.
Absolutely agreed.

But politicians don’t think like we do. And their ambassadors and phone calls to each other “may” be along those lines — afraid of Belarus doing something to stir trouble. And politicians all over the west are extremely risk adverse.

Belarus vs NATO? Absolutely. Little green men get squashed.

wouldn’t rule out terror attacks on a train or bus, and some other nonsense. All blamed on a 3rd party, ofcourse. And nobody is going to give them the shove back they really should get, because of Russia.

^^ thats my theory anyway. I’m probably wrong. But causing a physical fight with cabin crew of a commercial plane that’s flying? That’s just BEYOND 🤯
 

daftandbarmy

Army.ca Myth
Reaction score
2,219
Points
1,060
More so, when are we in the west going to stop being scared of these little asshole countries? It's getting ridiculous.

Sounds like a Trump government's position.

And defining 'the West' these days is pretty complicated. Belarus might be small, but it's big Brother is the Russian bear, of course.

When Gazprom can 'righty tighty' the knobs of the pipelines any time they feel like it, the EU is in a tough position militarily and otherwise. Which is where they put themselves many years ago with respect to their economy.
 

MilEME09

Army.ca Veteran
Reaction score
347
Points
910
Sounds like a Trump government's position.

And defining 'the West' these days is pretty complicated. Belarus might be small, but it's big Brother is the Russian bear, of course.

When Gazprom can 'righty tighty' the knobs of the pipelines any time they feel like it, the EU is in a tough position militarily and otherwise. Which is where they put themselves many years ago with respect to their economy.
If only there was a country with a wealth of natural gas it could ship across the Atlantic...oh wait we keep our resources I'm the ground. Seriously we could ween Europe off Russia if we put it as a national strategic goal.
 

daftandbarmy

Army.ca Myth
Reaction score
2,219
Points
1,060
If only there was a country with a wealth of natural gas it could ship across the Atlantic...oh wait we keep our resources I'm the ground. Seriously we could ween Europe off Russia if we put it as a national strategic goal. Europe didn't have an irrational and unfounded fear of the western countries who have come to their aid twice, and shed much blood, to free them from their neighbours.

There, FTFY. :)
 

Blackadder1916

Army.ca Veteran
Reaction score
287
Points
1,030
So government agents, while working - intentionally started a fight with the aircrew of a commercial airliner carrying passengers??
^^ thats my theory anyway. I’m probably wrong. But causing a physical fight with cabin crew of a commercial plane that’s flying? That’s just BEYOND 🤯

Other than the twitter rant of a colleague of the arrested journalist, I don't see any mention that the "KGB" (as described by the tweeter) initiated or engaged in any confrontation with the Ryanair crew. According to most media reports it was Belarusian ATC that directed them to divert to Minsk, accompanied by a fighter aircraft and, after a search (faked for plausible deniability?) of the plane and passengers, Mr Protasevich was subsequently detained.

How was the flight diverted?

In a statement, Ryanair said that the crew had been "notified by Belarus (Air Traffic Control) of a potential security threat on board and were instructed to divert to the nearest airport, Minsk".

Is the Belarusian regime and its security apparatus a brutal bunch of assholes? No argument here, but at least let's deal with facts and not unsubstantiated hyperbole.
 

CBH99

Army.ca Veteran
Donor
Reaction score
375
Points
860
Other than the twitter rant of a colleague of the arrested journalist, I don't see any mention that the "KGB" (as described by the tweeter) initiated or engaged in any confrontation with the Ryanair crew. According to most media reports it was Belarusian ATC that directed them to divert to Minsk, accompanied by a fighter aircraft and, after a search (faked for plausible deniability?) of the plane and passengers, Mr Protasevich was subsequently detained.



Is the Belarusian regime and its security apparatus a brutal bunch of assholes? No argument here, but at least let's deal with facts and not unsubstantiated hyperbole.
I totally agree with you. I did read that in an article earlier today though, while having my morning coffee. Will track it down and post it.

I apologize for sounding confusing with my posts on this, if I'm somehow right out to lunch on it. And I'm truly not a morning person at all, so maybe I did get my wires crossed. I am like 98% sure I read in an article earlier this morning that state security personnel 'initiated a physical altercation with the cabin crew.'
 

McG

Army.ca Legend
Reaction score
167
Points
680
It seems they are still KGB in Belarus: State Security Committee of the Republic of Belarus - Wikipedia

And there are reports of Belarus KGB on the plane:
 

daftandbarmy

Army.ca Myth
Reaction score
2,219
Points
1,060
Annnnnd Sanctions.....

EU imposes new economic sanctions on Belarus over ‘hijacked’ flight​


EU leaders triggered new economic sanctions against Belarus and punitive measures against its national airline as a dissident taken from a “hijacked” Ryanair flight was paraded on the country’s television news apparently confessing to crimes against the state.

In a summit communique swiftly agreed in Brussels on Monday night, the EU’s 27 heads of state and government condemned the forced landing of flight FR4978 in Minsk and called for the immediate release of opposition blogger Roman Protasevich and his Russian girlfriend, Sofia Sapega.

The statement came shortly after the release of a video in which Protasevich denied reports that he had suffered health problems since his arrest in the Belarusian capital and said that he was confessing to inciting mass riots, a charge that carries a maximum prison sentence of 15 years. The video, which appeared to have been filmed by police, was Protasevich’s first appearance since his arrest.

Protasevich, who was dressed in a black hoodie and seated next to a pack of cigarettes, said: “I can declare that I have no problems with my health, either with my heart or with any other organs. [Police] officers are treating me absolutely correctly and according to the law. I’m currently continuing to cooperate with the investigation and am giving a confession to the organisation of mass arrests in the city of Minsk.”

The opposition journalist appeared to have bruising above his right eye. He has not previously said he planned to confess to the charges against him, and several journalists who know him have said they believe he is under duress.

Late on Monday, Joe Biden condemned “in the strongest possible terms” the operation to arrest Protasevich, calling it “a direct affront to international norms” and called for his release. He welcomed EU sanctions, adding that his team was assessing “appropriate options”.

Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, earlier spoke to Belarusian democratic opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya about the “brazen and dangerous grounding” of Protasevich’s Ryanair flight and reassured her of US support for democracy, human rights, and fundamental freedoms in the country.

Sullivan has also “raised our strong concerns” about Belarus’s action with his Kremlin counterpart, according to the US White House press secretary, Jen Psaki.

Under the measures agreed by the EU leaders, a raft of economic sanctions will be applied against those involved in the arrests adding to those imposed months earlier on nearly 60 Belarusian officials, including president Alexander Lukashenko and his son Victor, relating to the crackdown on peaceful protests against last August’s allegedly rigged presidential election result.

The new sanctions will cover individuals involved in the hijacking, businesses that finance the Belarus regime and the aviation sector.

The EU’s heads of state and government also called on EU carriers to avoid Belarusian airspace and agreed “to adopt the necessary measures to ban overflight of EU airspace by Belarusian airlines and prevent access to EU airports” in a major blow to the country’s national airline. European flights over the country’s airspace have already been suspended.

 

YZT580

Army.ca Veteran
Reaction score
146
Points
630
If only there was a country with a wealth of natural gas it could ship across the Atlantic...oh wait we keep our resources I'm the ground. Seriously we could ween Europe off Russia if we put it as a national strategic goal.
sorry, not possible. Quebec refused to allow a pipeline to cross their province to bring western fuel to the east coast and ships.
 

MilEME09

Army.ca Veteran
Reaction score
347
Points
910
sorry, not possible. Quebec refused to allow a pipeline to cross their province to bring western fuel to the east coast and ships.
Yes and we all know Quebec gets a special exemption to over rule federal projects which it actually doesn't have power over, oh and can change the constitution now, I'm done with Quebec BS.
 

daftandbarmy

Army.ca Myth
Reaction score
2,219
Points
1,060
Yes and we all know Quebec gets a special exemption to over rule federal projects which it actually doesn't have power over, oh and can change the constitution now, I'm done with Quebec BS.

Because the equivalent 'BC BS' is better?

We suck at getting our hydrocarbon based products to market, let alone doing it in a cost effective way, and that's not going to help pay for all the things Canadians brag about like health care, student subsidies and various climate change virtue signalling efforts. :)
 

brihard

Army.ca Fixture
Mentor
Reaction score
1,114
Points
890
Something’s up. A Belarusian airliner en route to Barcelona has started flying circles in Belarus airspace. Two full loops complete since I noticed it.

EU airspace denied?
 

Attachments

  • 57B4268F-A37D-4EBF-B794-C50195CB75D1.jpeg
    57B4268F-A37D-4EBF-B794-C50195CB75D1.jpeg
    765 KB · Views: 8

MilEME09

Army.ca Veteran
Reaction score
347
Points
910
Something’s up. A Belarusian airliner en route to Barcelona has started flying circles in Belarus airspace. Two full loops complete since I noticed it.

EU airspace denied?
If it's a Belarusian airliner, yes, EU's new sanctions closed their airspace
 

dimsum

Army.ca Fixture
Mentor
Reaction score
681
Points
940
Something’s up. A Belarusian airliner en route to Barcelona has started flying circles in Belarus airspace. Two full loops complete since I noticed it.

EU airspace denied?
I thought the EU, etc closed their airspace a couple of days ago. Did this airline not get the msg?
 

brihard

Army.ca Fixture
Mentor
Reaction score
1,114
Points
890
Hit or miss. There have been flights to Warsaw and Vienna this morning. I saw something to the effect that France closed their airspace. There might be a wall further west in Europe. I suspect the EU will be trying to get some consistency in place this evening.

The Barcelona flight has called it a day and is headed back.
 
Top