British sailors arrested at gunpoint by Iranian navy.

[geo]

Spys - while wearing uniform, while on a boat flyin RN penants, while in arguably international or Iraqi waters?

This is getting better and better!!!

 

[midget-boyd91]

The penalty for espionage in Iran is death.

Will someone PLEASE tell me how in the hell being a few meters into Iranian waters (even though 9 chances of 10 they were still in Iraqi waters) is spying????? If this is followed through and the service men and woman arrested are sentenced the entire situation is going to explode, and i mean that quite literally!!!!!  The execution of fifteen, FIFTEEN, British personnel will have deadly implications, and not just for the onces accused of espionage.

Are the Iranian officials trying to bring a new war to the region??? THIS IS OUTRAGEOUS!!

 

[GAP]

from the article......

The penalty for espionage in Iran is death. However, similar accusations of spying were made when eight British servicemen were detained in the same area in 2004. They were paraded blindfolded on television but did not appear in court and were freed after three nights in detention.

 

[tomahawk6]

The Iranians are most likely going to offer an exchange Brits for Quds Force prisoners. The US might not agree if the stakes arent high enough. Dangerous game the Iranians are playing.

 

[midget-boyd91]

The Iranians are most likely going to offer an exchange Brits for Quds Force prisoners. The US might not agree if the stakes arent high enough. Dangerous game the Iranians are playing.

Its just too bad that nobody has told them that it ISN'T a game.
Curious though.. Would the US have a say over whether or not an exchange would happen, or would the decision be fully British as it is their sailors?

 

[Dale Denton]

Maybe this is some sort of messed up way of testing a "western" reaction to Iranian military intervention.  Maybe Iran was monitoring or guarding the vessel that the UK boarding team inspected (maybe they missed something important). I'm saying maybe because obviously there isn't enough information on this "incident" yet.

The more important thing I'd like to say is howcome the newspapers haven't gone into a frenzy about this? When I heard about this I was expecting it to be blown out of proportion and blasted everywhere (TV, internet, etc.), but that hasn't happened. Why hasn't the media seen this and reacted like it always does (mentioned in previous sentence)?

regards
Lobo

 

[tomahawk6]

We hold the Quds force brass. So any exchange would require US approval.

 

[geo]

Its just too bad that nobody has told them that it ISN'T a game.
Curious though.. Would the US have a say over whether or not an exchange would happen, or would the decision be fully British as it is their sailors?

The Brits can decide whatever they want.... but the Brits do not have control of the Iranians that were taken in northern Iraq.

 

[tomahawk6]

I suspect that push comes to shove we would release the Iranians to gain the release of the Brits.

 

[KevinB]

Regardless is the RN saw the Iranian boats prior to the incident they could not act anyway -- they have freedom of movement in their waters.
All it takes is a hundred meter dash and unless you (or the Cornwall in this case) has guns on them (which you cant do) they are at the RHIB's before you can act. 

The Captain then choses either following them into Iranian water and getting in a gunfight.

Shitty lose-lose situation given the parameters of the ROE and how they need to operate in the region.

I would guess there will be a shake up in SOP's for boading actions after this...


Militarily -- we are going to be in a shooting war very soon with Iran - unless the gov't changes it tune.

 

[CrazyCanuk4536056919]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/6492489.stm

Students belonging to the paramilitary Basij group, which is close to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, have called for the Britons to be put on trial.

Iranian armed forces spokesman Gen Ali Reza Afshar told Iranian media on Saturday that the 15 personnel were being interrogated, but were in good health.

This is most certainly degrading into something that the Iranians may not be able to turn back from.

If the UK does not know their whereabouts, and this situation carries on for another few days, Militarily, what are the options? The SAS are no doubt being consulted, but if the service members location is unknown, what can they do?

And I have my doubts that the US will hand over those Quds Force members in exchange. I think it would look like they are negotiating with terrorist's or something. The Israelis did not hand over any captured Palestinian terrorists for the release of their captured solider last summer, and I think the US would operate along the same lines in this situation.

 

[KevinB]

With the assets next door for the both the US and UK the retrieval is doable -- but the would likley force a shooting war, especially the methods used to ensure a cordor for the insertion and egress.
 

 

[Journeyman]

If the UK does not know their whereabouts, and this situation carries on for another few days, Militarily, what are the options? The SAS are no doubt being consulted, but if the service members location is unknown, what can they do?

And I have my doubts that the US will hand over those Quds Force members in exchange.

I'm afraid I'm responding without knowing your expertise in what exactly the Brits do know, or how they or the US intend to respond. I do know that secret negotiations, unlikely compromises, and strange bedfellows are not uncommon in international politics.

I think, however, that this guy summed it up best..... 

I think it's a little to early to be making statements such as that. Especially without all the facts.

 

[Old Sweat]

Like it or not, the options open to the Brits, and by extension, the west, are limited. While hope is not an acceptable method for conducting international affairs, the best outcome would be that the hostages were siezed by the well-known rouge element. In that case, they will be released in the near future, along with the usual rantings by the Iranian government. If, however, the government either had a hand in it or sees the capture as an opportunity, given the SC Resolution, then we probably are in for a long, difficult experience.

As for a rescue, the mind boggles at the resources required, the chances of success and the possible geopolitical outcomes of such an operation, whether it worked or not. Remember the Carter administration's botched attempt and how stupid and inept the US appeared over it.

 

[KevinB]

Old Sweat - as your aware we've come a long way from Blue Light and the disaster in the desert.  But yeah - one reason why I said retrieval rather than rescue...

 

[geo]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/6492489.stm

If the UK does not know their whereabouts, and this situation carries on for another few days, Militarily, what are the options? The SAS are no doubt being consulted, but if the service members location is unknown, what can they do?

And I have my doubts that the US will hand over those Quds Force members in exchange. I think it would look like they are negotiating with terrorist's or something. The Israelis did not hand over any captured Palestinian terrorists for the release of their captured solider last summer, and I think the US would operate along the same lines in this situation.

1... For any military force to enter the sovereign country of Iran would be tanamount to a declaration of war and all the nastiness that it might present.  You can posture all you want, the sailors and Marines are stuck and only negotiations will bring about their release.  In the meantime, if the Iranians want them to admit to something, anything, I would suggest that they might as well say it, say it with all the sincerity they can muster and say it with a smile.... "Yes Charlie Brown, there is a great pumkin!"

WRT Israel and the Palestinians..... Palestine is not a Sovereighn state... not the same thing in the least.

 

[time expired]

I think this may be another case of politicians sending their armed forces to do dangerous tasking with
insufficient troops or equipment and further saddling them with restrictive ROEs to insure the task is
even more dangerous. Although its a little early to make such judgements,given the lack of info.
available,I detect ROE restrictions as part of this situation as the Marines are not known as an
organization to throw up their hands at the first opportunity.
Solving this situation may prove difficult and protracted given the increasing paranoia of the mad mullahs
in Tehran
                      Regards

 

[geo]

Time expired.... I think that, in this case the ROEs worked just fine.
The waters between Iraq and Iran in that area are really, really close.
Nothing would be gained by a gunfight between the RN & marines VS vessels that were identified as being Iranian... the UK is not at war with Iran.

A boatload of armed individuals coming at the RN & Marines would have received an entirely different reception and the ensuing firefight would have most certainly been decisive - even if it was " a la Charge of the Light Brigade".

Am positive that all 15 soldiers & sailors were bristling to give em a rousing welcome but, the UK is not at war with Iran.... the ROEs worked just fine.

 

[tomahawk6]

If the merchant ship was so close to Iranian waters why was it stopped ?

 

[tomahawk6]

The link below has some images of IRGC facilities near Tehran.
Unlike Operation Eagle Claw we are much closer to Tehran so staging an operation is alot easier from that standpoint anyway.

http://thespiritofman.blogspot.com/2007/03/where-are-they.html

http://bp3.blogger.com/_uQFnbeKM-eE/RgXqUDjAdsI/AAAAAAAAACA/yh227N8GYlY/s1600-h/GoogleEarth_Image+(1).jpg

http://bp3.blogger.com/_uQFnbeKM-eE/RgXqUDjAdtI/AAAAAAAAACI/IPIzWQOvjMc/s1600-h/GoogleEarth_Image+(2).jpg