CAF Procurement
- Thread starter Kirkhill
- Start date
- Reaction score
- 13,061
- Points
- 1,160
Foreign Comparative Testing Remains Promising Potential for Future Projects
PICATINNY ARSENAL, N.J. - The U.S. Army Combat Capabilities Development Command (DEVCOM) Armaments Center seeks not only to create new technologies for...
www.army.mil
How much of a budget do you have for this?
- Reaction score
- 13,061
- Points
- 1,160
Against that backdrop consider this article about the results of the US testing FPV drones for potential military service.
Apparently the field included all the usual suspects but was one by the British face of an Anglo-Ukrainian company actively supplying the Ukrainian front line.
These comments stood out:
""A lot of people came with, I would argue, quite overengineered solutions,""
"Innovation exists outside the big-money bubbles of Silicon Valley and Washington"
"They make one every 23 seconds, 123,000 units per month," Gardner said of SkyFall, (Skyfall is the Ukrainian partner)
"Skycutter is now on contract for more than 2,500 drones."
....
So after all that the US is going to purchase 16 hours of production.
They will likely then conduct another evaluation with a decision some months in the future.
At that point they will be considering the purchase of a product that has been superceded by devices that are produced every 23 seconds, that are updated evry day, rendered obsolete within a week and destroyed on an ongoing basis.
In one month there will have been 123,000 better products manufactured than the one tested. Half a million in 4 months. 3 million in a year.
And all of them with some combat value on the day they were supplied.
And a million dollars spent testing would have supplied 1000 units to the troops and would have been produced in 6 hours. Considerably less than the time taken to organize, conduct and evaluate the test.
....
Our old models based on forges, lathes and micrometers are obsolete.
....
Reminder: This is the class of munitions responsible for 70-80% of casualties on both sides in the Ukrainian theater.
Reminder 2: The price of these munitions is comparable to the price of a 40mm Bofors round.
KevinB
Army.ca Relic
- Reaction score
- 29,881
- Points
- 1,260
If you beleive that, I have some Ocean front property for you in eastern Nevada.
- Reaction score
- 13,061
- Points
- 1,160
- Reaction score
- 13,061
- Points
- 1,160
This one is radical
Mulit-year procurement for capital projects like aircraft and spacecraft.
"The U.S. Air Force is putting together options to set up a multiyear procurement framework for aircraft and spacecraft development, similar to recent contracts that have been established for munitions replenishment."
If allowed in Canada it could open the door to continuous improvement of all fleets on an ongoing basis.
The end state would be the vendor would be responsible for ensuring that the field force had the latest and greatest at the bleeding edge and that it was serviced or replaced in a timely fashion.
Mulit-year procurement for capital projects like aircraft and spacecraft.
"The U.S. Air Force is putting together options to set up a multiyear procurement framework for aircraft and spacecraft development, similar to recent contracts that have been established for munitions replenishment."
If allowed in Canada it could open the door to continuous improvement of all fleets on an ongoing basis.
The end state would be the vendor would be responsible for ensuring that the field force had the latest and greatest at the bleeding edge and that it was serviced or replaced in a timely fashion.
KevinB
Army.ca Relic
- Reaction score
- 29,881
- Points
- 1,260
Ukrainian briefings have been very clear that the biggest killer of troops from Day 1 to now is still Artillery (who would have guessed).Prove me, the Ukrainians and the Brits wrong.
Having been to a bunch of briefings and watched various folks take aways, the only thing more upsetting than a bad lessons learned, is senior staff taking one point entirely out of context and building something around it. The UK has been beating to a different drummer for the past few decades in their Army priorities - I haven't seen them change step to get back in tune yet, so I wouldn't be jumping into anything after them without some detailed prep work.
FPV drones really aren't very useful - you can do a lot more faster, better with AI/ML than a human for these tasks, the AI/ML can also manage swarms - even Fiber Optic Tethered Swarms where the human cannot.
Sub 10% success rates with FPV drones are not something to write home about - they are media click bait - you can have an armed drone that can shoot 30-60 folks cheaper and it can come home get a fresh mag and go back to work.
MIT pioneered the SUAS back in OIF for JSOC. What started as a very surgical tool ended up being a Claymore on a FPV Quad Copter -- not nearly as surgical, and wasn't reusable - but it got a big boom and folks liked that on the Data Feed. That was over 20 years ago...
I am not so concerned about EW because it they can disrupt your NBL you have way bigger issues than Drone Swarms falling out of the sky.
UAS, and SUAS are a tool in the tool box, but not nearly as effective or efficient as many portray -- Ukraine has some fantastic programs, and their micro interceptors are pretty neat, and about 5% of the cost of the RTX version (albeit the Raytheon one has a significantly higher PK).
- Reaction score
- 13,061
- Points
- 1,160
I will stipulate all your points. Especially your points about the British Army. In their defence, as with the Ukrainians, when you have no money then you become imaginative. Unfortunately for them, unlike the Ukrainians, they have no political support either.
With respect to the FPVs - the FPV is a bullet that does not need a gun. It absolutely does need a gunner and that is a weakness. But when you contemplate the prospect of a bunch of 40 mm rounds buzzing round your head, all following the guidance of a single intelligence that may or may not be human then I think the direction of travel suggests a developing threat.
And how many 30-40 mm rounds are expended to achieve a hit, an M-Kill and a K-Kill? What is the wastage?
Is it different than 5, 10, 20, 50 FPV sized rounds (costing in the 1000-5000 USD range apiece) being expended on a single target?
And how many gunners, loaders, drivers, radar operators, ISR operators, ammo drivers and Fire Co-Ordinators are engaged in getting all those 40mm rounds to the vicinity of the target in the hope of achieving a kill?
...
I fully admit I would rather have a battery of Bofors in my vicinity than be forced to rely entirely on FPVs for my security. But I would absolutely like to have some FPVs and their competetent operators working in conjunction with the guns.
KevinB
Army.ca Relic
- Reaction score
- 29,881
- Points
- 1,260
I would lose the fascination with FPV -- it is a means of direction - but not a reliable one. When you start adding in exotic sensors to help accuracy and target fidelity you end up with Smart Munition costs.
Also programs come from requirements - What is the deficiency I am trying to rectify. What does this (for anything) do that something already in my inventory does do? or how much better can this do it than a currently fielded system?
A lot of UAS and SUAS are pitched as a cost effective method of doing something "new" when in actuality most of these tasks are already done by other items.
I am not against UAS or UGV's etc -- but I want a realistic expectation of what they are going to bring to the table.
A lot of the Loitering Munitions "jobs" are already done by other systems (sometimes working in tandem), and so while they can do certain jobs are they more efficient or effective?
SUAS are a one shot system -- unlike the 40mm handheld GL's, or HV GMG's and cannon, that can amortize the cost of superior FCS over their life.
If we look at range band requirements then what is the need.
Squad/Section has small arms to 400m
Platoon; 800m
Company: 1200m plus
BN: 8-12km (Mortars)
Bde/Div: 40km plus with supporting Artillery
For some missions/roles, yes they can be ideal -- but to get the range and weight of fire of say a M109A7 155mm HE Shell, how many LM/SUAS are needed?
At the end of the day I am not sold on the bang for the buck with a lot of the SUAS systems.
- Reaction score
- 6,700
- Points
- 1,160
I think FPV drones, etc. are the right weapon for the extremely dispersed Ukrainian battlefield. When you might only have a dozen frontline troops covering a KM of front then SUAVs allow you to have lots of inexpensive eyes all over the front to find and engage those isolated targets. They don't have to be super effective...with so few targets you can afford to use a half dozen to take out an enemy soldier or 30 to take out a tank.
However, as both Russia and Ukraine are demonstrating this dispersed warfare is not conducive to taking territory. You can shift the grey zone by bits and pieces, but you need to concentrate forces to make decisive territorial gains.
The focus for NATO doesn't need to be on matching the drone capabilities of Russia but rather on finding how to allow your forces to safely concentrate in a drone-heavy environment. If you can crack that nut then you will be able to blow through a widely dispersed Russian grey zone and have the concentration of forces required to actually take strategic territory.
However, as both Russia and Ukraine are demonstrating this dispersed warfare is not conducive to taking territory. You can shift the grey zone by bits and pieces, but you need to concentrate forces to make decisive territorial gains.
The focus for NATO doesn't need to be on matching the drone capabilities of Russia but rather on finding how to allow your forces to safely concentrate in a drone-heavy environment. If you can crack that nut then you will be able to blow through a widely dispersed Russian grey zone and have the concentration of forces required to actually take strategic territory.
- Reaction score
- 13,061
- Points
- 1,160
Vacuum Tube Era
1935 - Watson Watt invented radar
1942 - Radar was miniaturized and shock proofed so that it could be mounted on a 40mm HE-T shell and fired at aircraft
1945 - Millions of those radar fused shells had been produced at a then year price
The 1942 radar/proximity/variable-time/self-destruct fuse cost US$732 in 1942 dollars or something like US$25,000 today.
The 2026 BAE Bofors 3P fuze which includes the radar proximity switch complete with the 40 x 365 mm PFHE round is estimated to cost in the range of US$1000-2500 each
In 80 years the technology has reduced in relative cost by an order of magnitude.
The technology is now found in factories, homes and cars for hundreds, sometimes tens, of 2026 dollars.
....
Transistor Era
In 1970 the US produced an artillery shell capable of autonomous flight, the Copperhead.
Autonomous in this instance I am defining as the ability to adjust its flight path independently in flight to engage a specified target.
That laser guded, cannon launched UAV is still in service and apparently cost about US$75,000.
...
Commodore 64 Era
In 1979 the British married up an improved proximity fuse, an MMW radar system with both receiver and transmitter onboard an 81 mm mortar round, with an autonomous flight control system and created the Merlin which could search a 300 x 300 m area on its own, detect targets and discriminate among them and choose independently which targets to attack. The 1979 price was estimated at US$18,000 or about US$30,000 in 2026 dollars.
In 1987 the Merlin seeker was patched onto the American Hellfire missile and brought into service as Brimstone missile that could be launched from fast movers in salvos that would find their own targets without the fast mover entering the target area. That missile is currently in service in Ukraine at a reputed unit cost of $100,000
...
Intel Pentium and Windows 95 Era
In 1994 the US added a flight control sytem to an MRLS rocket creating the GMRLS (Guided MRLS) which, like the Copperhead, Merlin and Brimstone before it, would fly itself to a designated target. Autonomous flight by my definition. The complete GMRLS sells for about US$100,000 today.
In 1995 the US developed the JDAM (Joint Direct Attack Munition) kit which would allow any bomb in the US inventory to fly itself to a target, just like the GMRLS, at a cost of about US$18,000 a kit or about US$38,000 in today's money.
In 1998 the US developed the DAMASK seeker Direct Attack Munition Affordable Seeker as a JDAM derivative. For an additional US$12,700 (US$25,000 today), the bomb would fly itself to the target area, observe the target area, orient what it saw to the information available to it in its memory, decide on what, where and how to attack and then act by flyimg itself to the target and detonating.
JDAM plus DAMASK would have cost about US$30,000 then or US$60,000 plus the bomb with an Imaging Infrared sensor.
An SDB, derived from these technologies costs approximately US$40,000 to US$60,000 today.
The SDB II, with an MMW seeker like Merlin and Brimstone costs US$200,000 to US$250,000
The Quicksink kit, a more recent derivative costs about the same price.
By the early 2000s the US was strapping JDAM type flight control systems on everything from 70mm rockets, through 120mm mortar rounds and 155mm artillery rounds to MRLS rockets.
2004 PGM-M -120mm Mortar bombs - US$34,000
2005 APKWS II - 70mm Hydra rockets - US$15-20,000
2007 PGM-K - 155 mm Artillery shells - US$10,000
All unit costs, all 2026 dollars.
....
Smartphone Era
in 2010 Israel introduced a PGM kit, the EPIK, that could be attached to any rocket, including the ubiquitous Soviet 122 mm, and have it fly itself to any target area, pick out its target and decide where and how to strike it and destroy it. And the 2010 price for the kit, the marginal cost on top of the cost of the rocket, was US$2000. US$2500 in today's money.
....
The Era of the Cloud - the current era.
What is the minimum cost required to put a vehicle in flight, fly itself to a target, and then act according to instructions, with added bonus of being able to pause in flight, divert to another target or return to base to be reused?
US$200 - DJI Neo UAV
....
1945 - US$25,000 to address a target with a Proximity Fused round that now only costs US$2500
1980 - US$30,000 to address a target with discriminating MMW radar round that picked out the tanks from the back ground
1995 - US$25.000 to send any projectile to address a target and have it fly itself to that target area, for $60,000 it would find a particular target
2010 - US$2,500 to send any projectile to any target area, have it fly itself to the area, decide on the target and the attack profile and prosecute
2025 - US$200 to send an aerial vehicle anywhere, have it fly itself to the area, decide on the target, how to attack and if to attack or if to divert to an alternate target, or return to base, or an alternate or request new orders.
And the intelligence issuing the new orders may not be human.
....
If not today, then tomorrow.
And the prox fused rounds are now compatible with rounds in the 25-30 mm range and cost in the low hundreds of dollars a piece.
....
And finally,
The Gepard 35mm typically fires 6x 35 mm AHEAD style rounds to neutralize a Shahed-style drone that is in range. Estimated cost per round is US$1000 or US$6000 per kill.
The Gepard or Boxer-SkyRanger 35 costs about US$35,000,000 and requires a crew of 3 on shift (15 to maintain 24/7 coverage)
...
The Ukrainians are reporting two Sting FPV interceptors per Shahed kill and 5 interceptors per all Russian losses.
At US$1000 per interceptor.
Or US$2,000 per Shahed kill
1500 kills in a month in 2026. Up to 70% of kills in some areas.
As to the image of buddy in a virtual mask flying his FPV into the target..
"Are Ukrainians using ai autonomously to detect incoming drones, target them, launch interceptors, fly them to the targets and hit them?"
"Yes, Ukrainian forces are actively deploying AI-powered autonomous systems to detect, track, and intercept Russian drones, a development that is transforming aerial warfare, particularly against Shahed-type loitering munitions. As of April 2026, these technologies are moving from experimental testing to operational use, allowing for the interception of targets with minimal or no human intervention in the final engagement phase."
....
Even allowing for bumf, propaganda, misinformation, disinformation, maskirovka and just plain error, to my mind there seems to be a clear direction of travel:
cheaper,
smarter,
more widely distributed
more generally accessible.
1935 - Watson Watt invented radar
1942 - Radar was miniaturized and shock proofed so that it could be mounted on a 40mm HE-T shell and fired at aircraft
1945 - Millions of those radar fused shells had been produced at a then year price
The 1942 radar/proximity/variable-time/self-destruct fuse cost US$732 in 1942 dollars or something like US$25,000 today.
The 2026 BAE Bofors 3P fuze which includes the radar proximity switch complete with the 40 x 365 mm PFHE round is estimated to cost in the range of US$1000-2500 each
In 80 years the technology has reduced in relative cost by an order of magnitude.
The technology is now found in factories, homes and cars for hundreds, sometimes tens, of 2026 dollars.
....
Transistor Era
In 1970 the US produced an artillery shell capable of autonomous flight, the Copperhead.
Autonomous in this instance I am defining as the ability to adjust its flight path independently in flight to engage a specified target.
That laser guded, cannon launched UAV is still in service and apparently cost about US$75,000.
...
Commodore 64 Era
In 1979 the British married up an improved proximity fuse, an MMW radar system with both receiver and transmitter onboard an 81 mm mortar round, with an autonomous flight control system and created the Merlin which could search a 300 x 300 m area on its own, detect targets and discriminate among them and choose independently which targets to attack. The 1979 price was estimated at US$18,000 or about US$30,000 in 2026 dollars.
In 1987 the Merlin seeker was patched onto the American Hellfire missile and brought into service as Brimstone missile that could be launched from fast movers in salvos that would find their own targets without the fast mover entering the target area. That missile is currently in service in Ukraine at a reputed unit cost of $100,000
...
Intel Pentium and Windows 95 Era
In 1994 the US added a flight control sytem to an MRLS rocket creating the GMRLS (Guided MRLS) which, like the Copperhead, Merlin and Brimstone before it, would fly itself to a designated target. Autonomous flight by my definition. The complete GMRLS sells for about US$100,000 today.
In 1995 the US developed the JDAM (Joint Direct Attack Munition) kit which would allow any bomb in the US inventory to fly itself to a target, just like the GMRLS, at a cost of about US$18,000 a kit or about US$38,000 in today's money.
In 1998 the US developed the DAMASK seeker Direct Attack Munition Affordable Seeker as a JDAM derivative. For an additional US$12,700 (US$25,000 today), the bomb would fly itself to the target area, observe the target area, orient what it saw to the information available to it in its memory, decide on what, where and how to attack and then act by flyimg itself to the target and detonating.
JDAM plus DAMASK would have cost about US$30,000 then or US$60,000 plus the bomb with an Imaging Infrared sensor.
An SDB, derived from these technologies costs approximately US$40,000 to US$60,000 today.
The SDB II, with an MMW seeker like Merlin and Brimstone costs US$200,000 to US$250,000
The Quicksink kit, a more recent derivative costs about the same price.
By the early 2000s the US was strapping JDAM type flight control systems on everything from 70mm rockets, through 120mm mortar rounds and 155mm artillery rounds to MRLS rockets.
2004 PGM-M -120mm Mortar bombs - US$34,000
2005 APKWS II - 70mm Hydra rockets - US$15-20,000
2007 PGM-K - 155 mm Artillery shells - US$10,000
All unit costs, all 2026 dollars.
....
Smartphone Era
in 2010 Israel introduced a PGM kit, the EPIK, that could be attached to any rocket, including the ubiquitous Soviet 122 mm, and have it fly itself to any target area, pick out its target and decide where and how to strike it and destroy it. And the 2010 price for the kit, the marginal cost on top of the cost of the rocket, was US$2000. US$2500 in today's money.
....
The Era of the Cloud - the current era.
What is the minimum cost required to put a vehicle in flight, fly itself to a target, and then act according to instructions, with added bonus of being able to pause in flight, divert to another target or return to base to be reused?
US$200 - DJI Neo UAV
....
1945 - US$25,000 to address a target with a Proximity Fused round that now only costs US$2500
1980 - US$30,000 to address a target with discriminating MMW radar round that picked out the tanks from the back ground
1995 - US$25.000 to send any projectile to address a target and have it fly itself to that target area, for $60,000 it would find a particular target
2010 - US$2,500 to send any projectile to any target area, have it fly itself to the area, decide on the target and the attack profile and prosecute
2025 - US$200 to send an aerial vehicle anywhere, have it fly itself to the area, decide on the target, how to attack and if to attack or if to divert to an alternate target, or return to base, or an alternate or request new orders.
And the intelligence issuing the new orders may not be human.
....
If not today, then tomorrow.
And the prox fused rounds are now compatible with rounds in the 25-30 mm range and cost in the low hundreds of dollars a piece.
....
And finally,
The Gepard 35mm typically fires 6x 35 mm AHEAD style rounds to neutralize a Shahed-style drone that is in range. Estimated cost per round is US$1000 or US$6000 per kill.
The Gepard or Boxer-SkyRanger 35 costs about US$35,000,000 and requires a crew of 3 on shift (15 to maintain 24/7 coverage)
...
The Ukrainians are reporting two Sting FPV interceptors per Shahed kill and 5 interceptors per all Russian losses.
At US$1000 per interceptor.
Or US$2,000 per Shahed kill
1500 kills in a month in 2026. Up to 70% of kills in some areas.
As to the image of buddy in a virtual mask flying his FPV into the target..
"Are Ukrainians using ai autonomously to detect incoming drones, target them, launch interceptors, fly them to the targets and hit them?"
"Yes, Ukrainian forces are actively deploying AI-powered autonomous systems to detect, track, and intercept Russian drones, a development that is transforming aerial warfare, particularly against Shahed-type loitering munitions. As of April 2026, these technologies are moving from experimental testing to operational use, allowing for the interception of targets with minimal or no human intervention in the final engagement phase."
....
Even allowing for bumf, propaganda, misinformation, disinformation, maskirovka and just plain error, to my mind there seems to be a clear direction of travel:
cheaper,
smarter,
more widely distributed
more generally accessible.
Similar threads
