CAN-USA Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[ArmyRick]

Looks like a damage control tour with friendly media.

You are not getting her priorities. She has a responsibility to Alberta first, where oil and gas is 30% of their provincial GDP (as opposed to Ontario's auto sector which is 2% GDP). Call it what you want but she is doing what is right for her province.

 

[AmmoTech90]

You are not getting her priorities. She has a responsibility to Alberta first, where oil and gas is 30% of their provincial GDP (as opposed to Ontario's auto sector which is 2% GDP). Call it what you want but she is doing what is right for her province.

Some one should tell her that because, from the viewpoint of someone in her riding, she has an obligation to the Laurentian Albertan elite and the crack pots who got her elected as the leader of the party. She is decimating the provincial programs that support the most vulnerable and propping up subsidies to cronies.

 

[ArmyRick]

Some one should tell her that because, from the viewpoint of someone in her riding, she has an obligation to the Laurentian Albertan elite and the crack pots who got her elected as the leader of the party. She is decimating the provincial programs that support the most vulnerable and propping up subsidies to cronies.

This your opinion and views or have you got something concrete to back it?

 

[AmmoTech90]

Lived experience of myself and friends. Or is that too woke for you to consider? Also critical listening to news outlet reporting of government actions.

Where do you get your local Alberta news?

 

[brihard]

I find this to be a much more sensible solution to dealing with Trump than attempting a dollar for dollar trade war in which we suffer terribly. Way to go, Premier Smith

Doesn’t sound like she’s had any success in getting a sneak preview of what’s to come, nor negotiating any tariff carve-outs for her province or for Canada generally.

I don’t know offhand if America has surplus domestic oil reserves sitting idled at higher marginal production costs that could become profitable to bring online if WCS oil eats tariffs. I.e., if it becomes 10 or 15 or 25% more expensive for American refineries to import Alberta oil, could that allow for, say, shale oil or gas deposits to become profitable to develop where they currently aren’t? That would run a risk of long term supply substitution away from Canada. We’ve seen how Alberta bitumen oil can be profitable to extract or not, depending on spot price. Assuming tariffs would equally hit other potential sources of oil imports (which is not necessarily a safe assumption, but I’ll go with it to reduce variables), tariffed Canadian oil will need to compete with America’s potential to increase domestic production.

If America tariffs our oil, but does not impose equal tariffs on other overseas producers (say someone in another oil producing country succesfully curries Trump’s favour), we could end up in a really bad place indeed.

 

[brihard]

More on the provincial front: Doug Ford continues to prepare Ontario’s own response to tariffs, including sweeping the shelves of the LCBO of American products. Make Labatt 50 great again!

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-tariffs-trump-inauguration-executive-orders-1.7435832

 

[suffolkowner]

Doesn’t sound like she’s had any success in getting a sneak preview of what’s to come, nor negotiating any tariff carve-outs for her province or for Canada generally.

I don’t know offhand if America has surplus domestic oil reserves sitting idled at higher marginal production costs that could become profitable to bring online if WCS oil eats tariffs. I.e., if it becomes 10 or 15 or 25% more expensive for American refineries to import Alberta oil, could that allow for, say, shale oil or gas deposits to become profitable to develop where they currently aren’t? That would run a risk of long term supply substitution away from Canada. We’ve seen how Alberta bitumen oil can be profitable to extract or not, depending on spot price. Assuming tariffs would equally hit other potential sources of oil imports (which is not necessarily a safe assumption, but I’ll go with it to reduce variables), tariffed Canadian oil will need to compete with America’s potential to increase domestic production.

If America tariffs our oil, but does not impose equal tariffs on other overseas producers (say someone in another oil producing country succesfully curries Trump’s favour), we could end up in a really bad place indeed.

at face value Canadian oil should be the number one thing out of Canada Trump should put a tariff on since it is such a huge part of the trade imbalance that he dislikes so much

 

[ArmyRick]

Lived experience of myself and friends. Or is that too woke for you to consider? Also critical listening to news outlet reporting of government actions.

Where do you get your local Alberta news?

I get my ALL my news from these sources (I focus on national shit to be honest), CTV (Top choice), Northern Perspective, CBC (yup believe it or not I watch David Cochrane), Rebel News, Global.

I have several friends in ALberta and I lived there very briefly many years ago. My friends are about 3/4 pro Smith/O & G and 1/4 anti-Smith/O & G

I am allowed an opinion if thats ok?

The woke discussion is another forum, keep it there.

 

[ArmyRick]

at face value Canadian oil should be the number one thing out of Canada Trump should put a tariff on since it is such a huge part of the trade imbalance that he dislikes so much

The weird thing is, America refines it and up sells it by 200-300% (BIG profit margin)

 

[suffolkowner]

The weird thing is, America refines it and up sells it by 200-300% (BIG profit margin)

im sure there will be lots of opposition to it within the US

 

[brihard]

at face value Canadian oil should be the number one thing out of Canada Trump should put a tariff on since it is such a huge part of the trade imbalance that he dislikes so much

It’s more than double our entire trade surplus with them. Energy independence is something Trump has frequently made noise about. We need to be prepared for him to try to knock down our oil exports to the U.S. regardless of any other policy or diplomatic concerns. It’s wholly consistent with MAGA isolationism. Issues like the border give him political top cover for policies that would increase the cost Americans pay for gas and groceries for the time it takes to bring more domestic hydrocarbon production online.

 

[Remius]

You are not getting her priorities.

It’s obvious what her priorities are.

She has a responsibility to Alberta first,

So not country first.

where oil and gas is 30% of their provincial GDP (as opposed to Ontario's auto sector which is 2% GDP). Call it what you want but she is doing what is right for her province.

Which is the wrong approach when faced with national threats.

Like I said. Looks like damage control on her part.

 

[Remius]

More on the provincial front: Doug Ford continues to prepare Ontario’s own response to tariffs, including sweeping the shelves of the LCBO of American products. Make Labatt 50 great again!

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-tariffs-trump-inauguration-executive-orders-1.7435832

The WSJ article seems to indicate that some of his more competent economic advisers’ advice to him vs the tariff hawks advice may have worked and he will not impose tariffs. We’ll see.

 

[brihard]

Pulling this one from Border Integrity over to the Tariff thread:

Fitty, Schooner and OV all great beers. Bring back beer flavored beer.

LCBO doesn’t sell much American origin beer, but they sell about $860 million a year in U.S. origin wine and spirits. Likely heavily concentrated in a modest number of producing companies, and a modest number of geographical areas.

https://aem.lcbo.com/content/dam/lcbo/corporate-pages/about/annual-report/LCBO-FY2023-Annual-Report-ENGLISH.pdf

 

[suffolkowner]

You are not getting her priorities. She has a responsibility to Alberta first, where oil and gas is 30% of their provincial GDP (as opposed to Ontario's auto sector which is 2% GDP). Call it what you want but she is doing what is right for her province.

is that the actual responsibility of a Premier?
the auto industry is at a minimum the same as the oil industry. Are you comparing provincial % to national%

I get my ALL my news from these sources (I focus on national shit to be honest), CTV (Top choice), Northern Perspective, CBC (yup believe it or not I watch David Cochrane), Rebel News, Global.

I have several friends in ALberta and I lived there very briefly many years ago. My friends are about 3/4 pro Smith/O & G and 1/4 anti-Smith/O & G

I am allowed an opinion if thats ok?

The woke discussion is another forum, keep it there.

cant one be anti smith and pro O&G?

 

[The Bread Guy]

A quick-and-dirty Google-fu says automotive pumped ~$14B into Canada's economy in 2023, while "Oil and Gas Extraction sub-industry accounted for $71.4 billion" in 2023. Sources say AB's responsible for ~ 1/2 of the total GDP contribution.

cant one be anti smith and pro O&G?

In a nuanced world, yes. In a "if you're not with us, you're against us" world, it depends on who your "us" is

 

[QV]

Lived experience of myself and friends. Or is that too woke for you to consider? Also critical listening to news outlet reporting of government actions.

Where do you get your local Alberta news?

It seems your lived experience is far different from mine and my friends and associates.

There is a reason AB's population growth has been booming.

 

[suffolkowner]

A quick-and-dirty Google-fu says automotive pumped ~$14B into Canada's economy in 2023, while "Oil and Gas Extraction sub-industry accounted for $71.4 billion" in 2023. Sources say AB's responsible for ~ 1/2 of the total GDP contribution.


In a nuanced world, yes. In a "if you're not with us, you're against us" world, it depends on who your "us" is

i think that represents an expanding oil and collapsing auto sector

 

[suffolkowner]

I find this to be a much more sensible solution to dealing with Trump than attempting a dollar for dollar trade war in which we suffer terribly. Way to go, Premier Smith

still seems strange to suggest that the solution to the trade imbalance is to push for more trade imbalance

what is the oil discount?

what is the benefit of switching Energy East from NG to oil?

 

[Brad Sallows]

If Ford is proposing to block sales of US liquor, he's receiving idiotic advice. There is a huge world market for alcoholic beverages, and increasing prosperity is one of the reasons products you might like occasionally disappear from your local stores - someone, somewhere else, is willing to buy, and all that is needed is a sea-can routed somewhere else. Futile small gestures are a "tell" of people bereft of useful ideas, or unwilling to accept real political damage. The attraction is obvious: the appearance of doing something without the downside risk of tackling something of importance, like commodity exports or the Auto Pact.

Every proposal to punish US exporters - especially relatively small ones, of products not low in the value-add of any supply chain - is going to work the same way as threats to our exporters: they will be encouraged to seek markets elsewhere, and some of those relationships will become permanent and you will permanently lose access to products. This is especially true when they don't need multi-year infrastructure projects to establish new delivery routes.

Those who are serious about fighting their "economic war" ought to be aiming at commodities that are at the bottom of the chain, to maximize disruption. The whole point is disruption. Pin-prick economic commando raids are not the aim to be chasing when you need to win the Battle of the Atlantic.

The pause in the threat is amusing. It yanks the rugs out from all those using it to politick for leadership and generally distract attention away from their own long-term economic failures and gives everyone time to re-think all the ways in which we self-sabotage economic prosperity. The foreign "other" is less imminent.

Calm down, stop bleating "war, war, war", and think about removing internal impediments, which we should do anyways. Then when the threat finally dissipates, things will be even better.