CAN-USA Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[suffolkowner]

If Ford is proposing to block sales of US liquor, he's receiving idiotic advice. There is a huge world market for alcoholic beverages, and increasing prosperity is one of the reasons products you might like occasionally disappear from your local stores - someone, somewhere else, is willing to buy, and all that is needed is a sea-can routed somewhere else. Futile small gestures are a "tell" of people bereft of useful ideas, or unwilling to accept real political damage. The attraction is obvious: the appearance of doing something without the downside risk of tackling something of importance, like commodity exports or the Auto Pact.

Every proposal to punish US exporters - especially relatively small ones, of products not low in the value-add of any supply chain - is going to work the same way as threats to our exporters: they will be encouraged to seek markets elsewhere, and some of those relationships will become permanent and you will permanently lose access to products. This is especially true when they don't need multi-year infrastructure projects to establish new delivery routes.

Those who are serious about fighting their "economic war" ought to be aiming at commodities that are at the bottom of the chain, to maximize disruption. The whole point is disruption. Pin-prick economic commando raids are not the aim to be chasing when you need to win the Battle of the Atlantic.

The pause in the threat is amusing. It yanks the rugs out from all those using it to politick for leadership and generally distract attention away from their own long-term economic failures and gives everyone time to re-think all the ways in which we self-sabotage economic prosperity. The foreign "other" is less imminent.

Calm down, stop bleating "war, war, war", and think about removing internal impediments, which we should do anyways. Then when the threat finally dissipates, things will be even better.

the last time they targeted specific items from specific representatives i believe. Whether it helped or not who knows

 

[Remius]

If Ford is proposing to block sales of US liquor, he's receiving idiotic advice. There is a huge world market for alcoholic beverages, and increasing prosperity is one of the reasons products you might like occasionally disappear from your local stores - someone, somewhere else, is willing to buy, and all that is needed is a sea-can routed somewhere else. Futile small gestures are a "tell" of people bereft of useful ideas, or unwilling to accept real political damage. The attraction is obvious: the appearance of doing something without the downside risk of tackling something of importance, like commodity exports or the Auto Pact.

Every proposal to punish US exporters - especially relatively small ones, of products not low in the value-add of any supply chain - is going to work the same way as threats to our exporters: they will be encouraged to seek markets elsewhere, and some of those relationships will become permanent and you will permanently lose access to products. This is especially true when they don't need multi-year infrastructure projects to establish new delivery routes.

Those who are serious about fighting their "economic war" ought to be aiming at commodities that are at the bottom of the chain, to maximize disruption. The whole point is disruption. Pin-prick economic commando raids are not the aim to be chasing when you need to win the Battle of the Atlantic.

The pause in the threat is amusing. It yanks the rugs out from all those using it to politick for leadership and generally distract attention away from their own long-term economic failures and gives everyone time to re-think all the ways in which we self-sabotage economic prosperity. The foreign "other" is less imminent.

Calm down, stop bleating "war, war, war", and think about removing internal impediments, which we should do anyways. Then when the threat finally dissipates, things will be even better.

Nah. US beer is crap.

The LCBO is if I recall correctly one of the worlds single biggest purchaser of alcohol. That will have an impact and put pressure on that specific industry if push comes to shove. All part of a whole of country approach. .

 

[Kirkhill]

President Donald Trump won't impose immediate tariffs on Canada: reports​

Memo to U.S. federal agencies instructs them to study trade policies and relationships with North American neighbours and China

President Donald Trump won't impose immediate tariffs on Canada: reports

Instead of calling for immediate tariffs on imported Canadian goods on day one of his presidency, Donald Trump will seek more information.

nationalpost.com

Well now! Wasn't that invigorating? Nothing like the prospect of a good hanging, eh?

...

He got our attention. A little bit of coverage about what consequences might be. Friends and enemies.

Now then. National Defence? Electric Cars (the US market just shrank markedly)? Battery plants? Or do we get to build pipelines to Canadian ports? Or do we continue to feed the American Beast?

 

[QV]

While we have been locking up hydrocarbons, especially LNG terminals ....

North America​

[edit]

• Kenai LNG, Nikiski, Alaska (mothballed 2017 - expansion and reactivation under discussion)
• Cheniere Energy Sabine Pass terminal (Louisiana) opened 2016
• Cove Point LNG, Maryland terminal converted to export 2018
• Cheniere Energy Corpus Christi terminal, Texas opened 2018
• Freeport LNG terminal, Quintana Island, Texas converted to export 2019
• Cameron LNG, Hackberry, Louisiana converted to export 2020
• Southern LNG, Elba Island, Georgia – (Kinder Morgan) converted to export 2019
• Costa Azul LNG near Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico opened 2024/25
• Solensa (small scale) near Monterrey, Mexico

Under construction:

• Plaquemines opened 2024
• Corpus Christie Stage III - IOC March 2025
• Golden Pass - IOC December 2025
• Rio Grande - IOC 2026
• Port Arthur - IOC 2026/28
• LNG Canada (Kitimat) - IOC 2025
• Woodfibre LNG (Squamish) - IOC 2027
• Cedar LNG (Kitimat) - IOC 2029
• Fast LNG Altamira FLNG2 - export started 2024
• Energia Costa Azul - IOC 2025

And the Aussies have built 10 since 1989 with 7 or 8 currently in production.

It's almost like wrecking Canadian resource export output was done on purpose to weaken us and make a bid for an economic takeover much easier.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Well, well. People can put their hair fires out now. Another conspiracy theory proves true.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Doesn’t sound like she’s had any success in getting a sneak preview of what’s to come, nor negotiating any tariff carve-outs for her province or for Canada generally.

I don’t know offhand if America has surplus domestic oil reserves sitting idled at higher marginal production costs that could become profitable to bring online if WCS oil eats tariffs. I.e., if it becomes 10 or 15 or 25% more expensive for American refineries to import Alberta oil, could that allow for, say, shale oil or gas deposits to become profitable to develop where they currently aren’t? That would run a risk of long term supply substitution away from Canada. We’ve seen how Alberta bitumen oil can be profitable to extract or not, depending on spot price. Assuming tariffs would equally hit other potential sources of oil imports (which is not necessarily a safe assumption, but I’ll go with it to reduce variables), tariffed Canadian oil will need to compete with America’s potential to increase domestic production.

If America tariffs our oil, but does not impose equal tariffs on other overseas producers (say someone in another oil producing country succesfully curries Trump’s favour), we could end up in a really bad place indeed.

I haven't heard anything about the strategic reserves ever since Biden drew it down and sold it to China.

 

[suffolkowner]

I haven't heard anything about the reserves ever since Biden drew it down and sold it to China.

Didn't he sell high and buy low?

 

[Fishbone Jones]

More on the provincial front: Doug Ford continues to prepare Ontario’s own response to tariffs, including sweeping the shelves of the LCBO of American products. Make Labatt 50 great again!

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-tariffs-trump-inauguration-executive-orders-1.7435832

Almost all of our beer is made by the same conglomerates that make American beer. There aren't any true, family brewers like Molson and Labbatt left. They're just brand names coming off the same line. American beer @ 5% is the same as Canadian beer @ 5%. It just a matter of taste.

 

[Remius]

Well, well. People can put their hair fires out now. Another conspiracy theory proves true.

No, another example of Trump being Trump.

One thing he did though is expose a lot of anti Canada types.

This is certainly a lesson that we should just find other buyers for our stuff.

 

[The Bread Guy]

More from the WSJ piece (also archived here)

 

[brihard]

I haven't heard anything about the reserves ever since Biden drew it down and sold it to China.

I’m not talking about the strategic oil reserve. That’s oil that’s already out of the ground and in tanks. Biden’s administration did sell some when prices were higher and replenished stocks when prices were lower. That was only a $2 billion profit in favour of America, so not, overall, a huge deal. https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/st...eserve-scores-big-profit-hA4kCDRqAEusP85qxHOa

By ‘reserves’ I’m talking about oil that’s in the ground but could be extracted with the right investment and infrastructure. This can depend heavily on things like federal or state regulations, as well as the ability to raise capital to develop and exploit deposits. The latter depends heavily on the protected spot price of oil. If you can get it out of the ground and shipped for $50 a barrel, it makes a difference if you can sell it for $35 or for $65. Tariffs on competing oil imports can absolutely be a make or break.

 

[Kirkhill]

No, another example of Trump being Trump.

One thing he did though is expose a lot of anti Canada types.

This is certainly a lesson that we should just find other buyers for our stuff.

So we can build a pipeline across Quebec?

 

[Good2Golf]

This is certainly a lesson that we should just find other buyers for our stuff.

Which would be great, if the Government didn’t actively work against key revenue generators working to export (esp. O&G to Europe and Japan, Canada says ‘not a market’)

 

[Remius]

So we can build a pipeline across Quebec?

Can we and should we are different things. We should.

But You’ll have to ask Quebecers. Last time they weren’t keen on it.

I suppose the separatist leader of Alberta can talk to the separatist leader of Quebec. Neither has Canada first as part of their world view.

 

[Remius]

Which would be great, if the Government didn’t actively work against key revenue generators working to export (esp. O&G to Europe and Japan, Canada says ‘not a market’)

Agreed. Hopefully a lesson was learned.

 

[brihard]

Can we and should we are different things. We should.

But You’ll have to ask Quebecers. Last time they weren’t keen on it.

I suppose the separatist leader of Alberta can talk to the separatist leader of Quebec. Neither has Canada first as part of their world view.

Section 92(10) of the Constitution Act offers some support for the federal government legislating a pipeline across eastern Canada.

More from the WSJ piece (also archived here)
View attachment 90642

Hopefully accurate. The breathing room would be good. We need to recognize at a strategic level that, while our economic ties with the U.S. are unavoidably essential, we need to work to hedge and diversify for all the conventional reasons one does that in any investment strategy.

We shall see. I won’t take anything as a given with this administration.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

No, another example of Trump being Trump.

One thing he did though is expose a lot of anti Canada types.

This is certainly a lesson that we should just find other buyers for our stuff.

Of course it's about Trump being Trump. There was never any doubt for some. He's the driver. You started the thread. It's always been about tariffs and Trump. They are one in the same. People can now let their breath out, take some time and get your head around how he operates, instead of panicking evertime he says Boo.

Hopefully, after his studies are done, we'll have a new government that will bargain in our interests, our country and our economics.

"If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs........"

 

[Kirkhill]

Can we and should we are different things. We should.

But You’ll have to ask Quebecers. Last time they weren’t keen on it.

I suppose the separatist leader of Alberta can talk to the separatist leader of Quebec. Neither has Canada first as part of their world view.

That's right. I keep forgetting. Ontario is Canada.

 

[brihard]

Of course it's about Trump being Trump. There was never any doubt for some. He's the driver. You started the thread. It's always been about tariffs and Trump. They are one in the same. People can now let their breath out, take some time and get your head around how he operates, instead of panicking evertime he says Boo.

Hopefully, after his studies are done, we'll have a new government that will bargain in our interests, our country and our economics.

"If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs........"

A tip of the hat for the Kipling quote.

Let’s not discount the possibility that Trump made proclamations with full intention of ham-fistedly carrying them out, but was brought to his senses by those pointing out the significant harms such a blanket approach would do to America and to the image of the early days of his presidency.

While we’ve been focused entirely on the Canadian interests, let’s also not forget that he basically threatened the whole world with broad strokes tariffs. Not all of the pushback was coming from north of the Maple Syrup Line.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

So we can build a pipeline across Quebec?

Maybe not Quebec, but north of it through sovereign First Nation's territory that comprises most of that province. Maybe a new federal government should begin exploratory talks with FN?