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CAN-USA Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

Mods: I posted this in the election thread as well because it's something I felt could have gone in either thread.

To the surprise of absolutely no one, tripling down. It's almost like she's trying to annihilate any chance the CPC might have.

Alt: https://archive.ph/URUoJ
 

The reality is that we still need to diversify our trade networks away from the US. We tend to just hit the 'easy button' and sell to the US, which is dangerous...

From 2018...

The urgent need for Canada to diversify its trade​


Canada needs to diversify its trade beyond the United States and increase our links to rapidly-growing emerging market economies, particularly in Asia.


With the difficult renegotiation of the trade agreement with Canada’s largest trading partner now resolved, it’s time for Canada to get serious about trade diversification.

The experience of renegotiating NAFTA — or USMCA as it is now called — has highlighted Canada’s vulnerability to one dominant trading partner that buys roughly 75 per cent of our exports.

As a country, we should not be in this position. We need to diversify our trade beyond the United States and increase our links to rapidly growing emerging market economies, particularly in Asia, despite the “anti-China” clause in the USMCA.

Given that growth has pivoted to these emerging markets in the last 15 years, the first question is why has this not happened already. The answer is straightforward.

For a long time, being right beside the United States — the biggest, richest market in the world — has been a great ride for Canada. What’s more, we’re very comfortable and good at doing business with Americans.

Fewer benefits of living next to U.S.

So why diversify? The short answer is being right next door to the United States is not the ride it used to be. Part of this is the alarmingly protectionist sentiment of U.S. president Donald Trump’s administration, but the root of the answer pre-dates Trump.

In the last 15 to 20 years, the United States has not been the engine of global growth that it was in the past. The U.S. share of global growth has been almost cut in half in the last two decades, falling from about 32 per cent in the 1990s to about 17 per cent in this decade. Over the same period, Asia’s share has risen from 32 per cent to just over 50 per cent, according to our analysis of World Bank trade data from the Institute for Competitiveness & Prosperity. This has created a double challenge for Canada.

First, we are significantly underexposed to emerging market economies, so we are getting little upside from their acceleration in growth.

 
The reality is that we still need to diversify our trade networks away from the US. We tend to just hit the 'easy button' and sell to the US, which is dangerous...

From 2018...

The urgent need for Canada to diversify its trade​


Canada needs to diversify its trade beyond the United States and increase our links to rapidly-growing emerging market economies, particularly in Asia.


With the difficult renegotiation of the trade agreement with Canada’s largest trading partner now resolved, it’s time for Canada to get serious about trade diversification.

The experience of renegotiating NAFTA — or USMCA as it is now called — has highlighted Canada’s vulnerability to one dominant trading partner that buys roughly 75 per cent of our exports.

As a country, we should not be in this position. We need to diversify our trade beyond the United States and increase our links to rapidly growing emerging market economies, particularly in Asia, despite the “anti-China” clause in the USMCA.

Given that growth has pivoted to these emerging markets in the last 15 years, the first question is why has this not happened already. The answer is straightforward.

For a long time, being right beside the United States — the biggest, richest market in the world — has been a great ride for Canada. What’s more, we’re very comfortable and good at doing business with Americans.

Fewer benefits of living next to U.S.

So why diversify? The short answer is being right next door to the United States is not the ride it used to be. Part of this is the alarmingly protectionist sentiment of U.S. president Donald Trump’s administration, but the root of the answer pre-dates Trump.

In the last 15 to 20 years, the United States has not been the engine of global growth that it was in the past. The U.S. share of global growth has been almost cut in half in the last two decades, falling from about 32 per cent in the 1990s to about 17 per cent in this decade. Over the same period, Asia’s share has risen from 32 per cent to just over 50 per cent, according to our analysis of World Bank trade data from the Institute for Competitiveness & Prosperity. This has created a double challenge for Canada.

First, we are significantly underexposed to emerging market economies, so we are getting little upside from their acceleration in growth.

Yep. Time to find other markets and more reliable partners.

Trying to remain or increase our closeness to the US is a mistake.
 
The reality is that we still need to diversify our trade networks away from the US. We tend to just hit the 'easy button' and sell to the US, which is dangerous...

From 2018...

The urgent need for Canada to diversify its trade​


Canada needs to diversify its trade beyond the United States and increase our links to rapidly-growing emerging market economies, particularly in Asia.


With the difficult renegotiation of the trade agreement with Canada’s largest trading partner now resolved, it’s time for Canada to get serious about trade diversification.

The experience of renegotiating NAFTA — or USMCA as it is now called — has highlighted Canada’s vulnerability to one dominant trading partner that buys roughly 75 per cent of our exports.

As a country, we should not be in this position. We need to diversify our trade beyond the United States and increase our links to rapidly growing emerging market economies, particularly in Asia, despite the “anti-China” clause in the USMCA.

Given that growth has pivoted to these emerging markets in the last 15 years, the first question is why has this not happened already. The answer is straightforward.

For a long time, being right beside the United States — the biggest, richest market in the world — has been a great ride for Canada. What’s more, we’re very comfortable and good at doing business with Americans.

Fewer benefits of living next to U.S.

So why diversify? The short answer is being right next door to the United States is not the ride it used to be. Part of this is the alarmingly protectionist sentiment of U.S. president Donald Trump’s administration, but the root of the answer pre-dates Trump.

In the last 15 to 20 years, the United States has not been the engine of global growth that it was in the past. The U.S. share of global growth has been almost cut in half in the last two decades, falling from about 32 per cent in the 1990s to about 17 per cent in this decade. Over the same period, Asia’s share has risen from 32 per cent to just over 50 per cent, according to our analysis of World Bank trade data from the Institute for Competitiveness & Prosperity. This has created a double challenge for Canada.

First, we are significantly underexposed to emerging market economies, so we are getting little upside from their acceleration in growth.


I don't think he's arguing against diversification. I think he's trying to be realistic about our geo location, the speed at which we can diversify and what the world actually wants from us.

I think he's also pointing this is going to be painful difficult time.
 
Yep. Time to find other markets and more reliable partners.

Trying to remain or increase our closeness to the US is a mistake.
Yup. The U.S. will remain probably our most major trading partner, but we need to work to shift away from them being a domiannt trading partner. Trump has fundamentally changed the nature of our bilateral relationship. Even should it shift back once he’s gone, he’s shown how quickly the relationship can be strained, and that the U.S. is still pulling to weaponize economic dependence against us. Post-Trump, Trump*ism* will remain. We need to build considerable economic resilience to that. Let’s set Canada up to sell our goods and services to any willing buyer so long as it’s on equitable terms that don’t compromise our economic and national security.
 
Yup. The U.S. will remain probably our most major trading partner, but we need to work to shift away from them being a domiannt trading partner. Trump has fundamentally changed the nature of our bilateral relationship. Even should it shift back once he’s gone, he’s shown how quickly the relationship can be strained, and that the U.S. is still pulling to weaponize economic dependence against us. Post-Trump, Trump*ism* will remain. We need to build considerable economic resilience to that. Let’s set Canada up to sell our goods and services to any willing buyer so long as it’s on equitable terms that don’t compromise our economic and national security.
Absolutely. We also need to bring down barriers to getting our natural resources to where demand is. I would even argue to nationalize where necessary if the private sector is unable or unwilling to, just like Premier WAC Bennett did back in the day. He limited his projects to power generation and transportation, which could be aligned with pipelines.

Personally, I would prioritize pipelines to the East Coast for European markets, rather than helping Beijing.
 
Absolutely. We also need to bring down barriers to getting our natural resources to where demand is. I would even argue to nationalize where necessary if the private sector is unable or unwilling to, just like Premier WAC Bennett did back in the day. He limited his projects to power generation and transportation, which could be aligned with pipelines.

Personally, I would prioritize pipelines to the East Coast for European markets, rather than helping Beijing.
I would say that LNG to SK or Japan or Australia would be something to explore and if viable, move quickly to exploit.
 
Alt: https://archive.ph/7yhiy

One industry monitor recently found that demand for Canada-U.S. flights has “collapsed,” with cross-border bookings down more than 70 per cent for this spring and summer.

That's... significant. 2025-202? will not be kind for the tourism industry.
 
Mods: I posted this in the election thread as well because it's something I felt could have gone in either thread.

To the surprise of absolutely no one, tripling down. It's almost like she's trying to annihilate any chance the CPC might have.

Alt: https://archive.ph/URUoJ
It seems China and India might not be our only concerns for foreign election interference.
 
It seems China and India might not be our only concerns for foreign election interference.

Important to differentiate between ‘influence’ and ‘interference’. ‘Influence’ is generally lawful because it’s overt and aboveboard, even if not particularly welcome. Lobbying, meeting with diaspora groups, etc.

Interference is where something is clandestine, deceptive, subversive, or otherwise done in a manner contrary to the security interests of the state.

Canada has recently strengthened criminal provisions around the interference part of it, and once the foreign agents registry is up, that will force influence activity on behalf of a foreign state to generally be overt in order to be lawful.
 
Mods: I posted this in the election thread as well because it's something I felt could have gone in either thread.

To the surprise of absolutely no one, tripling down. It's almost like she's trying to annihilate any chance the CPC might have.

Alt: https://archive.ph/URUoJ
The Conservatives have a long history of shooting themselves in the foot.
 
I think most nations indulge in a bit of foreign interference every so often.

The Canadian Gov is running an Ad campaign in the US right now to counter the current US Admins moves against us.

We all do influence. It's interference that's the problem.

Hell, a good part of my job is to influence officers to make smart choices
 
The Canadian Gov is running an Ad campaign in the US right now to counter the current US Admins moves against us.

We all do influence. It's interference that's the problem.

Hell, a good part of my job is to influence officers to make smart choices
Great example.
 
Some cracks might be finally starting to appear.

Alt: https://archive.ph/0KV8l
There will be a vote in the Senate on the resolution tomorrow, and Kaine may have the necessary votes from a handful of Republicans. I don’t know the mechanism after that; whether it needs to go to the House for a vote as well to invalidate the emergency. If it does, well, the Republicans in the House as a lot are whipped cowards. But with Trump’s tariff announcement tomorrow, we would have some time to identify house Republicans whose districts are competitive, and also export a lot to Canada. Pick eight or ten such districts and shove retaliatory tariffs up their ass in hopes that four or five of them blink
 
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