CAN-USA Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[Halifax Tar]

So does that mean all the other countries around the world have already surrendered and we are just the last that may do so?

Unfortunately Jen isn't a member here, I don't think, so we can't ask her.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Unfortunately Jen isn't a member here, I don't think, so we can't ask her.

Doesn't matter, what I was stating is a fact. A fact that it seems others don't want to acknowledge or be aware of.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Doesn't matter, what I was stating is a fact. A fact that it seems others don't want to acknowledge or be aware of.

Ummm ok. #elbowsup!

 

[ModlrMike]

Ten weeks. We have to hold firm for ten weeks. If either, and certainly if both houses change hands, then that changes everything. A minority, lame duck president will be entirely different than what we have now.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Ten weeks. We have to hold firm for ten weeks. If either, and certainly if both houses change hands, then that changes everything. A minority, lame duck president will be entirely different than what we have now.

I hope that you are right.

 

[Brad Sallows]

They did have a deficit with the US, not ‘if’ and it still got them a 10% tariff against them.

The point is that if Trump thinks a trade balance has a win side ("surplus") and a loss side ("deficit"), he is taking the wrong position. Countries with trade deficits (US trade surplus) are the ones he should be going after, because being on the "deficit" side is theoretically the place to be.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Trade and the future of CUSMA isn't just in Trump's hands. Some people still think there's too much latitude for Chinese products to find their way into goods manufactured/assembled in Canada and Mexico and consequently enter the US enjoying the advantages of the trade deal. Their objections are also part of the mix. Regardless what anyone thinks the threshold numbers should be, the factor can't simply be wished away.

 

[Furniture]

So does that mean all the other countries around the world have already surrendered and we are just the last that may do so?

Two key points:

1. The rest of the countries aren't as dependant on a good reasonable deal with America. They have lots of other irons in the fire.

2. Trump has ignored those "deals" on a whim repeatedly. Giving him a symbolic "win" now just feeds his ego, and emboldens him to keep pushing for more.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Defence Analyst Wesley Wark has some thoughts on various leaks that are appearing in various media outlets:

Get a trade deal, get ready to give away our sovereignty?

Or, what’s with the leaks?

wesleywark.substack.com

 

[suffolkowner]

So does that mean all the other countries around the world have already surrendered and we are just the last that may do so?

are there actually any deals that other countries have made with Trump? I often hear that theres been an agreement only to here later that there wasnt?

 

[FSTO]

Ten weeks. We have to hold firm for ten weeks. If either, and certainly if both houses change hands, then that changes everything. A minority, lame duck president will be entirely different than what we have now.

Or he’s a wounded bear lashing out incoherently.

 

[Genetk44]

Or he’s a wounded bear lashing out incoherently.

If the dems get hold of both houses Trump becomes a chained bear and effectivly becomes almost powerless.

 

[Czech_pivo]

are there actually any deals that other countries have made with Trump? I often hear that theres been an agreement only to here later that there wasnt?

Lots of- Australia, Vietnam, Indonesia, EU, Japan, South Korea

 

[Brad Sallows]

If the dems get hold of both houses Trump becomes a chained bear and effectivly becomes almost powerless.

That's not how the political structure works there. A party can control Congress and, without a veto-proof majority, be almost powerless in Congress. The executive can do (or try) whatever it wants to (eg. by executive orders), limited only by courts and with its back protected in Congress by the Senate minority. The usage of the courts isn't going to change much - this administration already gets plenty of push back and Trump's opponents have no difficulty finding sympathetic judges willing to issue nation-wide injunctions. So no change in the courts, and no productive change in Congress.

None of this is new stuff that was created during Trump's time. This situation was created by earlier incarnations of Republican and Democratic presidents and Congressional majorities, and Democratic activists and supporters in particular have been strong supporters of presidential authority whenever the president is a Democrat.

If Democrats win the House but not the Senate, look for them to pull the same stunt they have done in the past: pass a whole bunch of children-and-kittens bills with embedded poison pill provisions that they know are going to die in the Senate, and then wail that Republicans are evil people who hate children and kittens. If they win the Senate, they'll do the same thing and then wail about presidential vetoes. And all that will be the foundation for another spate of op-eds about how the US is ungovernable and the Senate and courts and parts of the constitutional framework need to be extensively overhauled.

[Add: and bear in mind the historical reality that the Democrats are the more protectionist-leaning of the two parties]

 

[suffolkowner]

Canadian lumber no good for the states but Russian no problem

Russian Plywood Surges 42% — Now Trump Hands the Kremlin a Windfall

US imports of Russian plywood surged 42% in February as Trump eases Kremlin sanctions — handing oligarchs a windfall from a $360m conflict timber trade.

woodcentral.com.au

 

[Good2Golf]

Iowa Senator lectures Canada, saying Trumps taffies should “serve as a wake up call to Canada to make some changes…”

Good thing Iowa isn’t primarily dependent on Canada to buy 30% ($5B of its $16B) of exports…oh, wait.

Senator says tariffs a wake-up call for Canada - National | Globalnews.ca

Sen. Chuck Grassley said U.S. President Donald Trump's threat to hit an array of Canadian goods with new tariffs should serve as a "wake-up call to Canada to make some changes."

globalnews.ca

Iowa

Iowa Exports and Foreign Investment In 2025, Iowa exported $16.2 billion of goods to the world. In 2023, exports from Iowa supported an estimated 96 thousand jobs (latest data available). Exports from Iowa and Jobs

ustr.gov

 

[HavokFour]

Iowa Senator lectures Canada, saying Trumps taffies should “serve as a wake up call to Canada to make some changes…”

Good thing Iowa isn’t primarily dependent on Canada to buy 30% ($5B of its $16B) of exports…oh, wait.

Senator says tariffs a wake-up call for Canada - National | Globalnews.ca

Sen. Chuck Grassley said U.S. President Donald Trump's threat to hit an array of Canadian goods with new tariffs should serve as a "wake-up call to Canada to make some changes."

globalnews.ca

Iowa

Iowa Exports and Foreign Investment In 2025, Iowa exported $16.2 billion of goods to the world. In 2023, exports from Iowa supported an estimated 96 thousand jobs (latest data available). Exports from Iowa and Jobs

ustr.gov

Not to mention 85% of Iowa's potash supply relies on imports from... Canada.

Bold strategy in a heavily agricultural State there, Cotton. Let's see how it turns out with the weather getting wackier and wackier

 

[Altair]

Canada ‘shouldn’t be offering any concessions’ to U.S., Unifor says - National | Globalnews.ca

Industry insiders say companies are opting to wait and see as the clock ticks down on U.S. President Donald Trump's latest tariff deadline.

globalnews.ca

Ottawa “should not be offering any concessions to the United States,” Canada’s largest private sector union Unifor said on Friday as the clock ticks down to a fresh round of tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump next week.

“We shouldn’t be offering any concessions to the United States right now. The reality is the US has imposed tariffs on Canada,” Lana Payne, Unifor’s national president said.

Canada has “created leverage” for itself in the trade talks, which it should not give up by offering more concessions to the U.S., Payne said.

“We have a lot in this country that the U.S. needs. They rely on energy from Canada. They rely on potash from Canada. They rely on aluminum from Canada,” she added.

Okay, just to keep track.

We have the Conservative Party of Canada saying not to cave.

We have the Bloq Quebecois saying not to cave.

We have Unifor saying not to cave.

We have the Canadian Chamber of Commerce saying not to cave.

We have pollsters showing the majority of Canadians saying not to cave.

I hope that we let the 19th come and pass without making a deal, as any deal outside of CUSMA will be a bad deal.

 

[Altair]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-trump-tariffs-trade-deal-negotiation-sectoral-relief-lumber-auto-steel-9.7309039

Ottawa needs provinces to move on booze bans​

At issue for Ottawa: it needs provincial co-operation to make that happen, since it's powerless to force an end to the alcohol boycotts. The bans were put in place by each province, not the federal government, and restocking American alcohol ultimately rests with the provinces.

Complicating matters for negotiators, sources say, multiple provinces have said in recent days that they won't lift their alcohol bans until their own grievances are addressed in the trade deal.

Only Alberta and Saskatchewan, which have privatized alcohol retail systems, resumed the sale of U.S. booze. Other provinces have maintained their bans, although there has been division among them for months over whether to relent.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford says he will end the province's boycott only if negotiators secure what he describes as a "fair deal" that addresses tariffs on key sectors.

"If we get a fair deal that will protect our steel sector, our auto sector, our forestry sector, agriculture sector, manufacturing sector, then we'd be more than happy to bring booze back on the shelves," Ford said during a news conference in Guelph, Ont., on Thursday.

Dairy another potential flashpoint​

Quebec Premier Christine Fréchette, meanwhile, maintained Friday that no concessions should be made regarding the supply management system that protects Canadian dairy, a key U.S. trade irritant.

Trump has repeatedly complained about the level of U.S. dairy farmers' access to Canada's market.

"For us, it is essential to preserve supply management; we have made this a red line that must not be crossed," Fréchette said.

Sources tell CBC News that any deal with the U.S. will have to involve Canadian concessions on dairy, though it's not known publicly what specifics are being discussed at the negotiation table.

Earlier this month, Fréchette also stressed: "The sale of alcohol falls exclusively under the jurisdiction of the Quebec government. Quebec, and Quebec alone, will make that decision."

No movement on lumber relief: sources​

British Columbia Premier David Eby has long maintained that lowering tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber also needs to be part of any trade deal.

The premier previously said "there is not a chance in hell that U.S. alcohol is going back on the shelf in British Columbia," and he reiterated Friday that his position "remains unchanged."

"Our softwood lumber industry is under direct attack," Eby said, when asked whether his government would be willing to lift its ban on U.S. alcohol in exchange for a new trade deal. "That issue needs to be addressed.... The federal government is well aware this is British Columbia's issue at the table."

Saved by the provinces.

Thank god.

Looking forward to thursday.

Also,

That possibility of talks ending without a deal has been contemplated for weeks. When Trump announced the new slate of tariffs in July, Prime Minister Mark Carney told premiers that the best deal may be no deal at all. Sources with knowledge of the discussion told CBC News at the time that provinces were asked to develop a list of possible retaliatory actions if the U.S. proceeds with the Aug. 19 tariffs.

That's what I want to hear.