CAN-USA Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[FSTO]

I see Canada as the pink-haired, septum-ring-wearing underachiever who still lives in his parents' basement, never quite managing to launch despite a few valiant attempts. He spends much of his time envying his brother's success and resenting the fact that his own sense of moral virtue has not delivered the comfort and fulfillment he expected.

The United States, on the other hand, is the arrogant and successful sibling. After a blowout fight with Dad, he left home to make his own way and ultimately became wealthy, influential, and popular. These days, Dad still gets under his skin, and he's starting to notice more of his father's flaws reflected in himself. His relationship with his brother is strained; they were close when they were younger, but now they barely talk. To make matters worse, he's going through a messy divorce and regularly posts questionable things on social media.

Soon to be second or third Divorce?

 

[Czech_pivo]

If Trump is serious about Keystone XL being included in some sort of new trade deal (a big 'IF', I know), this, coupled with the soon to be expanded Trans Mountain to 1.3million bpd by early 2028 and the newly proposed pipeline to the new, to be built, export facility in the Vancouver port will be another 1million bpd.

This works out to be approximately another 3+ million bpd of oil being exported by the early 2030's if parts 2 and 3 (new pipeline to WC and Keystone XL built). Of the 3+ million bpd, just over 2.2million will be going to the WC and the remaining 900k down to the US.

Back of the napkin math using a guesstimate of 65$ USD per barrel of oil out in 2033 - 3,200,000 bpd * 65$ USD = 208,000,000$ USD a day or going with 350 days in a year (downtime/maintenance) is 208,000,000$ * 350 days = 72,800,000,00$ billion USD a year or using a base rate of 1.25CAD to a USD, 72,800,000,000$ * 1.25$ CAD = 91,000,000,000$ billion CAD a year in gross GDP

 

[Altair]

If Trump is serious about Keystone XL being included in some sort of new trade deal (a big 'IF', I know), this, coupled with the soon to be expanded Trans Mountain to 1.3million bpd by early 2028 and the newly proposed pipeline to the new, to be built, export facility in the Vancouver port will be another 1million bpd.

This works out to be approximately another 3+ million bpd of oil being exported by the early 2030's if parts 2 and 3 (new pipeline to WC and Keystone XL built). Of the 3+ million bpd, just over 2.2million will be going to the WC and the remaining 900k down to the US.

Back of the napkin math using a guesstimate of 65$ USD per barrel of oil out in 2033 - 3,200,000 bpd * 65$ USD = 208,000,000$ USD a day or going with 350 days in a year (downtime/maintenance) is 208,000,000$ * 350 days = 72,800,000,00$ billion USD a year or using a base rate of 1.25CAD to a USD, 72,800,000,000$ * 1.25$ CAD = 91,000,000,000$ billion CAD a year in gross GDP

Wouldn't get my hopes up.

Next Democrat in office will cancel keystone again.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Wouldn't get my hopes up.

Next Democrat in office will cancel keystone again.

Possibly.

But the US side the pipeline has already been built. Its just our side that needs to be built. It will depend on how the deal is structured as such.
Oil production the US is falling year over year going forward. They will need to address their production gap.

Keystone XL has always had support by the various CDN governments - both Harper and Trudeau.

 

[Altair]

Possibly.

But the US side the pipeline has already been built. Its just our side that needs to be built. It will depend on how the deal is structured as such.
Oil production the US is falling year over year going forward. They will need to address their production gap.

Keystone XL has always had support by the various CDN governments - both Harper and Trudeau.

Deal? What deal? Trump deals rely on executive actions. Actions that can be undone day one of a new administration.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Just out from CBC Montreal

LeBlanc, Greer 'confident' trade deal has been reached

Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc and United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer came out of a meeting in Washington feeling confident a trade deal has been reached.

montreal.citynews.ca

 

[Halifax Tar]

Just out from CBC Montreal

LeBlanc, Greer 'confident' trade deal has been reached

Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc and United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer came out of a meeting in Washington feeling confident a trade deal has been reached.

montreal.citynews.ca

Any bets on what we're giving up ?

 

[Altair]

Any bets on what we're giving up ?

If its anything like the Iran deal, we get 500b and the ability to enrich our own uranium.

 

[HavokFour]

Well it doesn't sound like we gave up dairy, now I'm really curious. Maybe it really is just Keystone, with a sprinkling of metals and autos.

Speaking briefly to reporters on his way out of the roughly 30-minute long discussion, LeBlanc answered a question about whether Canada's supply-managed dairy sector, long targeted by U.S. negotiators, will be affected by the terms of this prospective agreement.

"The prime minister was very clear, we need to protect supply management. We need to ensure that the supply management regime remains entirely intact and I'm confident that that's the case," LeBlanc said.

[CBC]Trump says he's brokered a 'very good deal' with Canada after pausing 50% tariffs​

 

[dapaterson]

I suspect the RCAF is going to have to make do with a single fighter fleet. Oh dear. They'll be so upset about that.

 

[Halifax Tar]

I suspect the RCAF is going to have to make do with a single fighter fleet. Oh dear. They'll be so upset about that.

I know someone around here who would be upset by that lol

 

[PrairieFella]

If we win concessions based off oil we want to sell and F35s our air force wants, we better be planning a triumphus for the negotiators.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Any bets on what we're giving up ?

Well, I think that we lost the Chrysler Brampton facility indirectly because of the tariffs, so there's that. On the flip side, I'm thinking that Roshel buys it (with Fed's blessing/help) and they start churning out products for the CAF and others.

I've always thought that our banking system/financial system would quietly be 'asked' to allow greater US access. Trump briefly talked about this over 15months ago and then went radio silent on it. Greater competition in the CND market place will benefit the CDN consumer overall.

I think that we are going to get more than 88 F35's, along with a marine based replacement for the Cyclone.

I think the 'first right of refusal' of critical minerals will go forward.

I think that the timing of Churchill Falls announcement and the possible 15 Gigawatts of net new electricity was masterful as I assume that it dangled a large carrot in front of the US, especially if they used the analogy that we are building the equivalent power of 80 Hoover Dams all at once - this is a true analogy.

After the above, I think flipping a coin on other issues would be the best guess.

 

[Altair]

Well, I think that we lost the Chrysler Brampton facility indirectly because of the tariffs, so there's that. On the flip side, I'm thinking that Roshel buys it (with Fed's blessing/help) and they start churning out products for the CAF and others.

I've always thought that our banking system/financial system would quietly be 'asked' to allow greater US access. Trump briefly talked about this over 15months ago and then went radio silent on it. Greater competition in the CND market place will benefit the CDN consumer overall.

I think that we are going to get more than 88 F35's, along with a marine based replacement for the Cyclone.

I think the 'first right of refusal' of critical minerals will go forward.

I think that the timing of Churchill Falls announcement and the possible 15 Gigawatts of net new electricity was masterful as I assume that it dangled a large carrot in front of the US, especially if they used the analogy that we are building the equivalent power of 80 Hoover Dams all at once - this is a true analogy.

After the above, I think flipping a coin on other issues would be the best guess.

Churchill Falls deal will mostly be for domestic use.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Churchill Falls deal will mostly be for domestic use.

Not so sure of that. Quebec will find a way to move that electricity down to NE/NY.

 

[PrairieFella]

Well, I think that we lost the Chrysler Brampton facility indirectly because of the tariffs, so there's that. On the flip side, I'm thinking that Roshel buys it (with Fed's blessing/help) and they start churning out products for the CAF and others.

Good riddance to Stellantis. Hopefully we seize the plant to get our money back that they functionally stole. They're on their last legs anyways.

I've always thought that our banking system/financial system would quietly be 'asked' to allow greater US access. Trump briefly talked about this over 15months ago and then went radio silent on it. Greater competition in the CND market place will benefit the CDN consumer overall.

Im wary of this. Their regulations are far less stringent, which led to the banking implosion in 08. As long as they fully comply with our laws theyre already allowed into Canada, they just choose not to do commercial banking because of this.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

The Mexicans can't 'hit back' because they 'fail' on so many levels.

Fentanyl

- when Trump put his first set of Tariffs against us (Canada and Mexico) this was his justification. He didn't have a leg to stand on with us and accordingly we said 'what the f*ck'. Mexico said nothing because they had zero ability to counter that argument because the numbers/facts weren't on their side​

​

Trade Surplus

- when back out Oil imports from us, the US has a trade surplus with Canada. We buy more from them than any other country in the world. That is not the case with the Mexicans. Back out their oil exports to the US and they still have a massive surplus with the Americans. Because of this, its in their best interest to keep their mouth shut and not upset the apple cart. Its in our interest to loudly inform the Americans that if we don't buy your goods and continue to be your number 1 export market its your citizens/workers that are going to suffer.​

​

​

I am not arguing that they can hit back. Making a point that there is a different strategy that can be employed. Which one is best depends on who you ask.

 

[Altair]

Not so sure of that. Quebec will find a way to move that electricity down to NE/NY.

I mean, they could, but the planned churchill falls deal has most of that expanded capacity earmarked for domestic use.

Thus it would be a very unsatisfying carrot

 

[RangerRay]

Its not what he will get, its what will he give up...

Speaking for myself, I would be happy if supply management went down the drain. But I can see how that would look like a huge sell-out to most people.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Good riddance to Stellantis. Hopefully we seize the plant to get our money back that they functionally stole. They're on their last legs anyways.

Im wary of this. Their regulations are far less stringent, which led to the banking implosion in 08. As long as they fully comply with our laws theyre already allowed into Canada, they just choose not to do commercial banking because of this.

Their are a number of ways that they can expand their presence here in Canada.

Back in 2000 when I left Boston to come back to Canada I was working with Fidelity Investments in Boston. I was able to transfer to Fidelity's Canadian offices in Toronto because at that time they were attempting to 'go direct' to the CDN brokerage market by setting up a new business model here in Canada to meet the needs of both the 'back office' Book of Record for Investment Advisors and to 'go direct' to individual CDN's by offering brokerage (trading accounts) services for all account types (meaning 'Registered' and 'Non-Registered'), think RSP, TFSA, RESP, Trading/Margin. After about 2yrs, hiring 125+ people and a few ten's of millions of dollars they closed up the new division as they made a bad decision on who they partner with in Canada. Since then, no US brokerage houses have made the attempt to come here. I can tell you from personal experience that what they can offer/provide in terms of services/information, value add, etc, is largely unmatched by anyone here in Canada today. Bringing it here to Canada would be a leap forward in many ways.

As for Chrysler and Brampton, I concur.