Canada Command: How Many Ships'll be Using Canada's Waters?

[The Bread Guy]

Wanted:  someone to figure out how much (and what) type of traffic we'll be seeing on the east & west coasts, as well as the Arctic, in the future to help Canada Command figure out how to protect us all:

.... Defence Research and Development Canada (DRDC) Centre for Operational Research and Analysis (CORA), is conducting various research activities aiming to help Canada Command and subordinate organizations to improve how operations are planned and conducted. In order for DRDC CORA to accurately simulate marine traffic, surveillance activities, as well as Search and Rescue (SAR) activities, a comprehensive understanding of marine traffic occurring inside and near Canadian waters is required.

Services are required to perform work under the following three (3) phases:

Phase 1:    The Contractor must estimate, using data from a variety of unclassified sources, the actual shipping densities inside or near Canada Command's Area of Responsibility (AOR) for different vessel types, locations and periods of the year.

Phase 2:    The Contractor must produce projections of shipping densities in the Arctic for the year 2020. As in the first phase, the results must be delivered in the form of shipping density maps and reports.

Phase 3:    The Contractor must investigate and review geo-statistical analysis methods for identifying patterns in marine traffic, exploring the degree of correlation between marine traffic densities for different vessel types and activities of particular interests (e.g. SAR incidents), and predicting the risk of certain activities to occur ....

Reference Number  PW-$$SV-035-21584
Solicitation Number W7714-093795/A

More here and in the attached Statement of Work.

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

I am not sure I get what DRDC is trying to get.

First of all the "density" concept seem to be a land geography concept: A specific territory which has known borders (town, state, country, etc.) gives you a set surface in Sq. Km and you average out its population (fairly fixed) to get a density. In naval terms, we have sea routes or lanes of communication: these have no specific borders but traverse designated areas (Strait Juan de Fuca, Strait of Belle-Isle, etc.) and lead to single points, the harbours. Thus, is it a density  measure to conclude, for instance, that almost all traffic for Seattle/Vancouver/ tacoma/Victoria transits through Juan de Fuca Strait, averaging, say 100 transit a day by large merchantman?

Similarly, as everybody knows (for SAR, for instance) that fisherman go gaga during Herring Roe season in the Queen Charlotte, and that there are huge number of sailboats in the Juan de Fuca strait during the Victoria day week-end (the Swiftsure race), etc. How do you translate this into "densities" of fishing vessels and sailboats?

And one more interesting question here: Since most  naval officers that have been around for a little while already seem to have generally good knowledge of this information, what does Canada Command need of a study?

 

[aesop081]

what does Canada Command need of a study?

I dont get it either. I have been patrolling the Canadian AOR for the last 5 years and the same job has been done for over 30 years. Surely by now, some sort of trend data has been compiled.

 

[Lex Parsimoniae]

I think that the key to this is the requirement to create the product "using data from a variety of unclassified sources" so that it can be handled by DRDC personnel and interns who may not have security clearances.  Just my  :2c:

 

[aesop081]

so that it can be handled by DRDC personnel and interns who may not have security clearances.  Just my  :2c:

Handling classified data has not been a problem for DRDC in past and current projects so i dont see that as being an issue.

 

[Lex Parsimoniae]

Handling classified data has not been a problem for DRDC in past and current projects so i dont see that as being an issue.

It was just a guess.  My community has those problems with DRDC but YMMV.

 

[aesop081]

It was just a guess.

I know but it just seemed remote to me considering the types of research i know they carry out.

My community has those problems with DRDC but YMMV.

I would be interested to know what those issues are in general terms but this is undoubtable the wrong venue for that discussion.

 

[The Bread Guy]

I dont get it either. I have been patrolling the Canadian AOR for the last 5 years and the same job has been done for over 30 years. Surely by now, some sort of trend data has been compiled.

Based on the number of MERX postings for government seeking private sector help compiling, screening and doing feasibility studies over the past year or so, I'm guessing this either hasn't been done internally, or has been done in fits, starts and silos, making it useless as is.  Just because someone in "government" collects data doesn't mean it's necessarily useful for more than just that someone or his/her boss - I say this from (non-military) experience.

I'm also guessing that the open source approach may be being used to make things easier for private sector companies to do the work without clearances (since it doesn't look like security clearance for vendors is mentioned in the tender docs).

I'm curious - when it comes to the predictive part, esp. re:  the Arctic, wouldn't there already be some type of internal expertise somewhere?  Or is this another "we're too busy to do this so let's get outside help"?

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

Here's my expertise on the prediction for the Arctic in 10 years (2020): Same traffic as now with, maybe, a doubling of the "expeditionary" cruises in summer (which is not much considering the current number). So write it down and compare to the reality in 10 years.

Why? Simple: Merchant ships don't like to take risks with their cargo. When it is predicted that the North-west passage will be ice free in the summer in a few years, the scientific pundits are probably correct. What they fail to indicate is that it means that  sometime around August or September, the passage would become ice free for a few weeks to a month at first, maybe not every year in the beginning and then more and more frequently and for longer and longer periods. Also, you would experience a greater incidence of icebergs as a result of he Arctic warming, and greater incidences of fog. This is way too indeterminate for merchant ships to plan the Arctic passage  (remember, the NW passage is a good shortcut between Europe and Asia, but the regular route is either around the Cape in South Africa or through the Suez canal. You just do not divert these ships from one route to the other midstream just because you heard that the NW passage might be open in a few weeks, for a short window of opportunity, but with some risks.

So, until a clearly ice free season of reasonable duration becomes a certain event year after year, there is little chance that merchant ships will use it, regardless of the economic benefits. And such predictable season is not in the 10 years future IMO.

Quite willing to take bets!