Canada moves to 2% GDP end of FY25/26 - PMMC

[ytz]

It will when Bill C12 passes.

To be clear, I'm referring to mandates like the requirement to manage the transport sector in a national emergency.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

To be clear, I'm referring to mandates like the requirement to manage the transport sector in a national emergency.

Whoops. Yeah- that stays with TC and is (to my knowledge) not going to DND.

 

[Czech_pivo]

We will need more. But like I said these kinds of lists. X ships, y tanks, etc come from a mindset where we simply had to construct a task group to throw into a fight. 15 Rivers, a dozen subs and a dozen CDCs won't mean a thing without the space capabilities to find the adversary for example.

A truly sovereign military means having all those enablers that we usually expect the Americans to bring. And it means the whole spectrum and every domain from orbit to seabed, to the spectrum to the information domain. It's a world where having SIGINT aircraft may be more important than a few more destroyers. Or simply having more ammunition stocked up maybe worth more than dozens more fighters or tanks.

Consider a basic scenario. China-Taiwan heats up. The Americans tell us we are on our own in the North Pacific while they send everything they have to the fight.

All of a sudden 15 RCDs and a dozen subs and a dozen Corvettes and 16 P-8s doesn't actually look like a lot when split between three coasts. You still have to guard the Arctic. In fact, you might have to do more. Those P-8s? They might need tens of thousands of sonobuoys to sustain that kind of an effort for months. We really don't stock like that today. And as their fight gets frisky do we have enough space assets to self-sustain while more of theirs are repurposed to the fight they have. We still have to do all the NORAD stuff and now have to deter any sub or containerized missile taking a shot. Do we have enough tankers to do all that?

When this all kicks off you have other considerations at home too. The economy will obviously go to shit as global trade collapses. How vulnerable is the population to misinformation and who manages the information space to ensure the CAF can focus on its mission? Who will protect from attacks on infrastructure at home? Who is going to stop drone attacks at the GDLS plant in London or Pearson airport? If we're restricting airspace how does the CAF work with TC? And all of this while we consider mobilizing to deploy our own forces forward.

In the scenario above, every Arleigh Burke the Americans have to give to a Canadian Admiral to patrol the North Pacific is one less that they have to help Taiwan. Every satellite they have watching the Arctic is one less in their primary theatre. Etc. The minute you say, "don't count on the Americans," the scope of the work we have to do gets massive. And this is a moving target. The threat on something like this is different in 2030, 2035, 2040, etc. The checklist mentality of inventory numbers has to end. No more, "We have x amount of this. We're good.". The question needs to be, "Can we do the mission without the help of allies who are distracted?".

And that is going to take an all of government approach. And genuine cooperation between the services. TC will have to work with the CAF to ensure air defence can work with airspace restrictions. CSIS might have to rush clearances for personnel so they can get to work. Maybe the PMO has The PM do a daily presser so that the AI videos on Tik Tok aren't changing public opinion against us. The army will have to learn to use HIMARS to do coastal defence. The air force may have to throw anything with a sensor into the mission to help the navy from a Kingfisher to an MQ-9. Maybe the navy pays fishing boats to tow sonars. Etc.

This is the kind of effort 5% of GDP is meant for. Not just moving up the stat count of our contribution.

Are you able to say if you’re off in a corner by yourself with a large white board and a box of dry erase markers putting this all together or, are you part of a larger effort connecting the dots and pulling on all the threads?

 

[ytz]

Are you able to say if you’re off in a corner by yourself with a large white board and a box of dry erase markers putting this all together or, are you part of a larger effort connecting the dots and pulling on all the threads?

I have participated in chats like that. Just pull a thread and start thinking of all the implications. And mostly it's to get us thinking of the implication of our own work and where it fits. The actual work on stuff like this is being done by pros who publish detailed scenarios and looking at all kinds of stuff in minutiae. You can pick practically any scenario and just say, "Don't count the US" and you will get what I did above.

Cause literally every PD course I've gone on we'll discuss all kinds of special capabilities we don't have. "Oh the Americans will bring those.". Now imagine a scenario where you're fighting alone. That's what I did.

Worse. Until recently we didn't even really talk much about working with other government departments. We just assume we'll do it all.

For the last 3-4 decades. Possibly longer. We've been a military that contributes to a fight. Nobody has sat down and really thought through what it would take to fight alone. It's inconceivable to even a lot of the CAF. But that's the challenge here. Compare that to some other allies who actually do think about this stuff. It's why the Aussies have amphibs, 100+ fighters, AEW and SIGINT. Cause help is a long ways away.

 

[Kirkhill]

I have participated in chats like that. Just pull a thread and start thinking of all the implications. And mostly it's to get us thinking of the implication of our own work and where it fits. The actual work on stuff like this is being done by pros who publish detailed scenarios and looking at all kinds of stuff in minutiae. You can pick practically any scenario and just say, "Don't count the US" and you will get what I did above.

Cause literally every PD course I've gone on we'll discuss all kinds of special capabilities we don't have. "Oh the Americans will bring those.". Now imagine a scenario where you're fighting alone. That's what I did.

Worse. Until recently we didn't even really talk much about working with other government departments. We just assume we'll do it all.

For the last 3-4 decades. Possibly longer. We've been a military that contributes to a fight. Nobody has sat down and really thought through what it would take to fight alone. It's inconceivable to even a lot of the CAF. But that's the challenge here. Compare that to some other allies who actually do think about this stuff. It's why the Aussies have amphibs, 100+ fighters, AEW and SIGINT. Cause help is a long ways away.

We have been planning on slotting into someone else's army since 1858 when we raised the 100th (Prince of Wales's Royal Canadian) Regiment of Foot for foreign service in the hope it would bring the British to our aid again in the event the American's got frisky.

100th (Prince of Wales's Royal Canadian) Regiment of Foot - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

100th.
Strathcona's
Gault's
CEF
1st Canadian Army
25th Canadian Infantry Brigade
4 CMBG
Assorted Battle Groups

We have absolutely no sense of fighting for anything on our own.

 

[QV]

@ytz This kind of thinking has been a long time coming. It's why the US is pushing the EU to be more robust in it's own yard. We need absolutely to be able to do our part, and that is at minimum capably defending Canada on our own. A defended Canada is for the most part a secure northern flank of the US, which I'm sure they'd appreciate when the chips are down.