Canada moves to 2% GDP end of FY25/26 - PMMC

[Halifax Tar]

Very much. Dudes twisting themselves into pretzels to justify more HIMARS. If you want more, just make the case for the expeditionary force to have more. At least that is sellable. Instead of arguing that the only solution to a dark contact is to sling a US$3.5M PrSM at it.

Agreed.

Also Canada doesn't need and expeditionary Army. But I digress here we are.

 

[ytz]

Agreed.

Also Canada doesn't need and expeditionary Army. But I digress here we are.

Debatable to me. Based on foreign policy and all that. What's not debatable is a call to have high end land capabilities at home with zero relation to the actual threat.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Debatable to me. Based on foreign policy and all that. What's not debatable is a call to have high end land capabilities at home with zero relation to the actual threat.

Excellent topic for a campfire and Strawberry Rhubarb moonshine.

 

[Kirkhill]

Except the DoC Div is basically 100% PRes at this point.
Which means it isn’t really a DoC Div, as by the time the PRes get activated, arrive at their site, draw equipment, get ammo, move out as necessary, and are ready for action the event is over and has been for quite some time (for better or worse).

The DoC is just a way for the Reg Force to shunt the PRes off and spend nothing on them.

It doesn't have to be that way. And you know that fine.

Volunteers can be contracted for part-time and full-time work under the existing Class ABC system.

 

[Kirkhill]

And I could argue air force types arguing against UAVs because they cut into flight hours and navy types arguing against UUVs and USVs because they cut into sea pay. And everybody arguing against automation because it cuts into boots on parade and justification for higher ranks.

The Ukrainians are making all sorts of unconventional solutions work because they have to.

They have rendered the Russian navy obsolete in the Black Sea. The Russians are reduced to using Q-ships in the Baltic. How long before the North Atlantic is turned into another NATO lake? Patrolled by self-propelled, self-reporting sensors.

Lots of competition for rice bowls.

 

[Kirkhill]

In fact, I am going to double down.

We are contemplating reducing our 88 F35 order to something greater than 16.
I propose we cut that in half to 44.
That saves us 44 aircraft at 100 Million a piece. Or 4.4 Billion in capital costs. Plus half of the operating and maintenance costs over 30 or 40 years.

How many GBAD regiments, complete with long range fires batteries such as I described, could be bought for the Militia's DoC Division to crew?

St John's
Halifax
Vancouver (Victoria)
Prince Rupert

I will add three more Regiments

Toronto-Hamilton
Montreal-VdQ
Ottawa-Kingston

And their LRPS batteries, being less useful in the interior, can be kept mobile so they can respond to the threat, or be loaned out to friends and business associates.

 

[KevinB]

I wouldn't go that far. But I do think there's asymmetric speed on development here. There's an urgent need to get the regular army to the point they can provide heft in Europe. And so that is being prioritized. Meanwhile they are working out what to do with the reserves. And putting them in a separate org does enable this asymmetry.

Yes because nothing says fixing the symmetrical issues like putting the Reg Force Light Infantry Regiment into a Mech Div…

 

[KevinB]

In fact, I am going to double down.

We are contemplating reducing our 88 F35 order to something greater than 16.
I propose we cut that in half to 44.
That saves us 44 aircraft at 100 Million a piece. Or 4.4 Billion in capital costs. Plus half of the operating and maintenance costs over 30 or 40 years.

How many GBAD regiments, complete with long range fires batteries such as I described, could be bought for the Militia's DoC Division to crew?

St John's
Halifax
Vancouver (Victoria)
Prince Rupert

I will add three more Regiments

Toronto-Hamilton
Montreal-VdQ
Ottawa-Kingston

And their LRPS batteries, being less useful in the interior, can be kept mobile so they can respond to the threat, or be loaned out to friends and business associates.

Why?

One may be able to argue the requirement for some C-UAS at some DND sites, but generally those would be ports and fall under the RCN - and as we’ve belabored repeatedly Force Protection is a 24/7 job and not for the Reserves in peacetime.

I’d like the Reserves to get HIMARS solely to create a second and third division with actual equipment and a role.

 

[ytz]

And I could argue air force types arguing against UAVs

Go ahead. I've argued both in forums and in any professional context where I get the chance to, against the MQ-9. You seem to think there's uniform consensus on this.

The Ukrainians are making all sorts of unconventional solutions work because they have to.

They are making lemonade out of lemons. And that's great and all. But that doesn't mean that every single thing the Ukrainians do applies to us.

They have rendered the Russian navy obsolete in the Black Sea.

Our AOR alone on each coast is larger than that. Not to mention our AOI and AII. The air, space and naval capabilities we want to get reflect the area that needs to be covered.

In fact, I am going to double down.

You do that. Unless you're the PM, MND, CDS, or Chief of Force Development, nobody cares dude. There's a process to translate defence policy from Cabinet into capabilities. And unless you're somebody highly empowered in that chain, what you think is irrelevant. Good for a chat here though. So have at her. F' it. We should have 30 000 HIMARS. Standard issue to every soldier. The only question is whether to issue BMQ-L or when fully trade qualified.

 

[ytz]

Yes because nothing says fixing the symmetrical issues like putting the Reg Force Light Infantry Regiment into a Mech Div…

Was it actually called a mechanized division?

Man. Some of you guys get way too hung up on names. It's pretty clear there's a broad strategy here to separate reg f combat arms, res f combat arms and supporting elements. Names are superfluous. They can be changed.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Yes because nothing says fixing the symmetrical issues like putting the Reg Force Light Infantry Regiment into a Mech Div…

I saw that movie!

 

[KevinB]

Was it actually called a mechanized division?

Man. Some of you guys get way too hung up on names. It's pretty clear there's a broad strategy here to separate reg f combat arms, res f combat arms and supporting elements. Names are superfluous. They can be changed.

3x CMBG’s kind of makes it a mech Div, even if it’s mostly LAV and only 2 tank ‘Bn’.

It’s called a Maneuver Div at this junction, but my issue is putting the LIR into it is stupid. As the LIR role is vastly different than the rest of the Div.

I mean I don’t see the RCAF putting Griffons and Hercules into CF-18 organizations, and that is sort of akin to it.

It’s solely a Reg v Res thing, which to me is incredibly shortsighted for the CA (but not unexpectedly so).

 

[McG]

I mean I don’t see the RCAF putting Griffons and Hercules into CF-18 organizations, …

It is all 1 CAD.

 

[KevinB]

It is all 1 CAD.

Yes but I was more meaning Squadrons.

A Division is a homogeneous maneuver unit.
So generally they are similar units, not tanks and light infantry.

 

[Kirkhill]

Very much. Dudes twisting themselves into pretzels to justify more HIMARS. If you want more, just make the case for the expeditionary force to have more. At least that is sellable. Instead of arguing that the only solution to a dark contact is to sling a US$3.5M PrSM at it. I don't think they understand how ridiculous this sounds to anybody who has spent 5 mins in an RJOC or the CAOC.

That has me thinking.

Actually I wasn't contemplating launching a 3.5 MCAD PrSM on spec. I was thinking that I might use the recoverable MQ-58 Valkyrie to check out the target. It has a range of 5600 km compared to the iteration 2 PrSM range of 1500 km. If need be the Valkyrie could track the target until it gets into range.

And if it were an aerial target then the Valkyrie can port a couple of AIM 120 AMRAAMs and a pair of Sidewinders.

How much does it cost to maintain a reaction force of 8 F18s that can get within visual observation of a Bear and Sidewinder range?

How much does it cost to maintain a standing naval patrol that can approach within cannon shot to engage any threat in our Atlantic and Pacific AORs?

 

[PrairieFella]

Was it actually called a mechanized division?

Man. Some of you guys get way too hung up on names. It's pretty clear there's a broad strategy here to separate reg f combat arms, res f combat arms and supporting elements. Names are superfluous. They can be changed.

Names matter. They inform formation culture and tactics. Lets look at our most likely land adversary, the Russkis. A Guards Division vs a Motor Rifle Division. Different formations have different capabilities and thus different names. Why this matters in our case is that the stated objective of this reorg is to be able to sustain a division in the field on operations. If higher headquarters are expecting a heavy mech division and receive a franken-formation with heavy cav, eng and potentially fires depending on what IFM taps, schmedium mech inf in wheeled LAVs and a random light infantry regiment (which would be far better suited in the DoC Div with ARCG as a big priority), they may employ them in a way theyre not suited.

The whole Booker debacle in the US demonstrates this thoight process too. It was deliberately not allowed to be called a light tank despite being one by every metric because they did not want to ingrain the idea of using like a tank into the minds of higher formation commanders right off square one. Hence "mobile protected firepower", which was a fancy way of saying assault gun in traditional armour parlance.

A lot of words to say names matter though I do somewhat agree that this forum can get very wrapped around the axle on names.

 

[Brad Sallows]

In fact, I am going to double down.

We are contemplating reducing our 88 F35 order to something greater than 16.
I propose we cut that in half to 44.
That saves us 44 aircraft at 100 Million a piece. Or 4.4 Billion in capital costs. Plus half of the operating and maintenance costs over 30 or 40 years.

How many GBAD regiments, complete with long range fires batteries such as I described, could be bought for the Militia's DoC Division to crew?

St John's
Halifax
Vancouver (Victoria)
Prince Rupert

I will add three more Regiments

Toronto-Hamilton
Montreal-VdQ
Ottawa-Kingston

And their LRPS batteries, being less useful in the interior, can be kept mobile so they can respond to the threat, or be loaned out to friends and business associates.

Waste of money. How realistic is the air and naval threat to Canada from anywhere except the US? And if someone else did come, they'd be at the end of a trans-Atlantic or trans-Pacific lifeline. They come, maybe they land; at that point they're committed and they lose.

I have never understood why anyone took seriously the threat of Japanese invasion of the west coast.

 

[ytz]

I mean I don’t see the RCAF putting Griffons and Hercules into CF-18 organizations, and that is sort of akin to it.

Where do you think the CA got the idea from?

The RCAF has the same structure. All the operational fleets in 1 CAD. Training fleets in 2 CAD. Space in 3 CSD.

Also, our fighter wings, all have helicopter squadrons in them.

A Division is a homogeneous maneuver unit.
So generally they are similar units, not tanks and light infantry.

Like I said, you're getting hung up on names. A division can be whatever you want it to be. In this case:

• Deployable division HQ focused on warfighting operations across the full spectrum of confict
• Mechanized brigades with upgraded tanks and recon platforms
• Fires brigade with self-propelled 155mm artillery and longrange precision fires
• Combat support brigade with Air Defence, engineers, Electronic Warfare, CBRN, CIMIC, PsyOps, and UAS
• Combined arms Reserve battalions for flexible operations
• Sustainment brigade to double logistics and combat service support
• Light infantry regiment for crisis and Arctic response
• Control of aviation, medical, and military police for mobilization

Pretty clear that the "Manoeuvre" Division is more then just a mechanized division. It's functionally a grouping designed to provide a variety of task forces across the spectrum of conflict. This can be a mechanized division in Europe. But it can also be a light infantry regiment deployed on short notice anywhere.

You're thinking of this mostly in the American context where they are operating division sized forces with a bunch of support from the Corps and the Echelon Above Corps. But this is basically all of that rolled into a single division. For a small army this is a lot more sensible. Certainly more sensible than the ridiculous number of Div HQ the CA had before, where a whole lot of staff officers had to pretend they were hardcore warriors.

 

[KevinB]

That has me thinking.

Actually I wasn't contemplating launching a 3.5 MCAD PrSM on spec. I was thinking that I might use the recoverable MQ-58 Valkyrie to check out the target. It has a range of 5600 km compared to the iteration 2 PrSM range of 1500 km. If need be the Valkyrie could track the target until it gets into range.

OTH Radars and Satellites exist.

Then P-8’s can prosecute undersea or surface targets if the USN and RCN aren’t around.

NORAD deals with the air and space issues.
So you will see F-22’s and F-35’s assigned to those.

And if it were an aerial target then the Valkyrie can port a couple of AIM 120 AMRAAMs and a pair of Sidewinders.

The MQ-9B’s are a program of record.
You’re talking about adding something that isn’t adopted by anyone for a role that already exists.

How much does it cost to maintain a reaction force of 8 F18s that can get within visual observation of a Bear and Sidewinder range?

You’re ignoring the benefits of the ready aircraft that already exist.

How much does it cost to maintain a standing naval patrol that can approach within cannon shot to engage any threat in our Atlantic and Pacific AORs?

Again you are missing the point of the Navy and the Air Force, and discounting the options already available.

 

[ytz]

If higher headquarters are expecting a heavy mech division and receive a franken-formation with heavy cav, eng and potentially fires depending on what IFM taps, schmedium mech inf in wheeled LAVs and a random light infantry regiment (which would be far better suited in the DoC Div with ARCG as a big priority), they may employ them in a way theyre not suited.

Do you really think some theatre commander is going to get a random division and he has no idea what capabilities they have or the OOB till their MGEN shows up with a PowerPoint? For people who served, you guys have some bizarre ideas of how the institution works.

First of all, NATO has specific capability codes. And they are really starting to enforce and standardize those, so that staff officers from different countries understand the capabilities of any unit they have to manage. You can call it the Galaxy Brain Division for all anybody cares. The staff weanie on the other side simply goes off the spec sheet.

Next, we're moving to a world where layers are being eliminated. Especially with concepts like JADC2. In the same way that air forces send their taskings directly from the CAOC to squadrons or wings, armies are moving to flatter organisation where their Division or Corps HQ run like CAOCs and pass orders directly down to company or even platoon level sometimes. In this world the Div level (in our case) or Corps level (for the US) becomes thicker. Levels below that thin out on staff, command, etc. So you can call your unit whatever. The ops planner in that HQ has a spec sheet and he/she is just looking at the targeting cycle and seeing what your platoon or company's codes match up to, on the list of priorities on their desk.