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Canada moves to 2% GDP end of FY25/26 - PMMC

By all that is holy, yes, please start there. I'm confident that whenever anyone does, all his worries about coastal invasions will go into the bin marked "scripts for movies like 1941".

Fundamentally, navies avoid major operations within range of land-based aircraft during wartime unless the air threat is minimal (hint, hint) or they can themselves dominate the airspace. The latter requires either that they have a carrier force (there's only one nation that can sufficiently do that) or that they are in range of their own land-based aircraft.
I do beleive that a UAS attack from a commercial carrier isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Given Iran, China and Russian have conducted attacks and/or incursions into allied countries.
But I don’t see what HIMARS costal batteries do for that other than make expensive targets.
 
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But if 3Div ends up with the HQ in Latvia along with a CMBG, and then the LIR needs to go to Africa, Asia whatever- the reporting chain is a tad FUBAR.

I'm not sure why you think this. If the LIR deploys somewhere, they'll have their own theatre commander who will have a direct line to CJOC. Some Bn Comdr in Africa isn't going to be calling a Div Comdr in Riga. They'll call Ottawa directly when they need something.

CANSOF is most likely to take over the vacuum and then no one will get the LIR back - it will be the Ranger Reg’t giving support to CSOR and the Hill. Which while good for CANSOF, will totally gut the CA of Light Force proponents.

Honestly, with light infantry increasingly being the farm team for CSOR and the Hill, this is/was probably inevitable. And I'm not sure that's necessarily a bad thing. Perhaps we need to get past the idea that the CA can do everything. The RCAF and RCN certainly accept their limitations.

I also think the DoC Div name is a tad bizarre,

Same as Manoeuvre Division. They are doctrinal ideas. I assume some CA historian is working really hard right now to come up the appropriate name and lineage and all that.

The CA has worse offenders. Like a certain western light infantry regiment that rides around in LAVs.
 
Canadian Destroyer program(me)

Lifecycle cost per PBO 306 BCAD
Lifetime 65 years
Cost per year 5 BCAD

Result

2 or 3 ships on standing patrols, often in foreign waters

And, for some portion of those 65 years, a tactically relevant Task Force operating in foreign waters in aid of an ally.

.....

Canadian F35 programme

Lifecycle cost per PBO 74 BCAD
Lifetime 45 years
Cost per year 1.6 BCAD

Result

Two flights of 4 aircraft on standby to intercept monthly intrusions by 60 year old Russian aircraft

And, again for some limited portion of that time, a deployable squadron on foreign service.

.....


AOPS Program

Lifecycle cost not detailed
Purchase price 5 BCAD
Support for 35 years 5 BCAD
Crew, POL, Victuals, Ammunition and other consumables not defined

Result

2 ships at sea
1 operating in foreign waters in the Caribbean.

....

Canadian P8 program

Lifecycle cost not detailed
Purchase price with infrastructure 10 BCAD
O&M budget and lifetime not detailed.

Result

From 2033 16 aircraft available to supply one sovpat occasionally from each cost, respond on demand to calls on the high seas and provide one aircraft on long term foreign deployments.

....


Canadian MQ9B Program

Lifecycle cost not detailed
Purchase price 2.5 BCAD
O&M budget and lifetime not detailed.

Result

11 MQ-9B vehicles with 2 groups operating in conjunction with tbe P8s. One tasked for the arctic and the other for foreign operations.

1 available for standing patrols in Canada.

Bayraktar type RPAS has not been having a good war in Ukraine recently.

....

I can go on.
 
I'm not sure why you think this. If the LIR deploys somewhere, they'll have their own theatre commander who will have a direct line to CJOC. Some Bn Comdr in Africa isn't going to be calling a Div Comdr in Riga. They'll call Ottawa directly when they need something.
No but based on a few GOFO’s I’ve known, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Div Commander and/or G2/3 call the Regimental Commander.

Honestly, with light infantry increasingly being the farm team for CSOR and the Hill, this is/was probably inevitable. And I'm not sure that's necessarily a bad thing.
Would gut the Light fighting ability in the CA, and leave the PRes Light Infantry without a parent to fight for (or beat) them.

Perhaps we need to get past the idea that the CA can do everything. The RCAF and RCN certainly accept their limitations.
Clearly you were never in the CA ;)
If the CA where adults the Chinooks wouldn’t have even been divested, and there would be both LAV and a Tracked IFV as vehicles for the different Brigades.

Admittedly at least this Force model did get away from the symmetrical brigade concept that has plagued the CA since 4 CMBG came home and the CAR disbandment.
Same as Manoeuvre Division. They are doctrinal ideas. I assume some CA historian is working really hard right now to come up the appropriate name and lineage and all that.

The CA has worse offenders. Like a certain western light infantry regiment that rides around in LAVs.
No one liked my idea of moving the PPCLI enmasse to Petawawa, as the LIR. Then the RCR converting to a tracked IFV and being based with tanks in Latvia, and standing up the Canadian Guard in Edmonton.
 
Now about BMD…

Well, the government has lifted the provision on BMD. And there's open talk about joining Golden Dome. So.....

I do beleive that a UAS attack from a commercial carrier isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Given Iran, China and Russian have conducted attacks and/or incursions into allied countries.
But I don’t see what HIMARS costal batteries do for that other than make expensive targets.

Nailed it. Containerized drones or missiles. Or an undetected sub getting within weapons range is the nightmare scenario. Nobody is worried about a large flotilla going undetected till they are within weapons range.
 
By all that is holy, yes, please start there. I'm confident that whenever anyone does, all his worries about coastal invasions will go into the bin marked "scripts for movies like 1941".

Agreed. Apparently the US has been protecting us from whatever that threat is.
 
Well, the government has lifted the provision on BMD. And there's open talk about joining Golden Dome. So.....
I’m more interested about the detection side of Golden Dome.


Nailed it. Containerized drones or missiles. Or an undetected sub getting within weapons range is the nightmare scenario. Nobody is worried about a large flotilla going undetected till they are within weapons range.
Down here we love to cry ‘Decision Dominance’ but while I’m confident that we can detect the threat as soon as it unmasks, I’m less confident about early detection (Intelligence Community) and the ability to interdict in a timely manner.

Which means whomever wants to sucker punch us first is going to get a clear shot — now the question is, given what happened after Pearl Harbor, and 9/11 does anyone want to roll that dice? I would suggest that while many more countries and people hate America than Canada, that some state actors might find Canada an easier target - simply because of the fact that the repercussions are going to be less, due to smaller military and no nuclear weapons.
 
No but based on a few GOFO’s I’ve known, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Div Commander and/or G2/3 call the Regimental Commander.

Not saying that won't or can't happen. But that is a discipline issue and a theatre commander or staff officer not knowing and exercising their authorities properly.

If that's going to be an issue, do what the RCAF does: specific training for TF commanders and staff to teach them exactly how to lead and manage, and that make it explicitly clear what the reporting and command relationships are.

Would gut the Light fighting ability in the CA, and leave the PRes Light Infantry without a parent to fight for (or beat) them.

Unfortunately, yes.

No one liked my idea of moving the PPCLI enmasse to Petawawa, as the LIR. Then the RCR converting to a tracked IFV and being based with tanks in Latvia, and standing up the Canadian Guard in Edmonton.

I've always wondered why the CA didn't realign roles and names.
 
I’m more interested about the detection side of Golden Dome.



Down here we love to cry ‘Decision Dominance’ but while I’m confident that we can detect the threat as soon as it unmasks, I’m less confident about early detection (Intelligence Community) and the ability to interdict in a timely manner.

Which means whomever wants to sucker punch us first is going to get a clear shot — now the question is, given what happened after Pearl Harbor, and 9/11 does anyone want to roll that dice? I would suggest that while many more countries and people hate America than Canada, that some state actors might find Canada an easier target - simply because of the fact that the repercussions are going to be less, due to smaller military and no nuclear weapons.

I would say there's a good chance your next sucker punch thrower is probably already in your country and just waiting for the right moment.
 
I would suggest that while many more countries and people hate America than Canada, that some state actors might find Canada an easier target - simply because of the fact that the repercussions are going to be less, due to smaller military and no nuclear weapons.
Or lack of real response. On the flip side we arent exactky going to get the same effect as any attack on more relevant countries.

I would think that most threats of that magnitude to Canada is mostly because of our proximity and our previous alignment with US interests.
 
I’m more interested about the detection side of Golden Dome.

I find a lot of Golden Dome is basically repackaging and rebranding of existing capabilities and some new stuff that was in the pipeline. Great way for the USN, USAF and USSF to argue for more funding.

Down here we love to cry ‘Decision Dominance’ but while I’m confident that we can detect the threat as soon as it unmasks, I’m less confident about early detection (Intelligence Community) and the ability to interdict in a timely manner.

You're not the only one. It's a very hot topic. And that debate is public after Operation Spider Web.

Which means whomever wants to sucker punch us first is going to get a clear shot — now the question is, given what happened after Pearl Harbor, and 9/11 does anyone want to roll that dice? I would suggest that while many more countries and people hate America than Canada, that some state actors might find Canada an easier target - simply because of the fact that the repercussions are going to be less, due to smaller military and no nuclear weapons.

I'm not worried. That's a large effort for signaling. Not implausible. But very low likelihood. And I can't see a scenario where the US let's a Canadian city get hit and then doesn't perceive a threat to its own cities. That would be poor deterrence.
 
I understand that people use what is available but....

Aircraft have limited duration in the air and are at the mercy of the weather. They spend most of their time in a hangar at an airfield with miles of asphalt and cement that is regularly swept by those people not actively engaged in finding spare parts to keep some portion of the fleet fit to fly.

Once over the area of interest then they have to find the target of interest before they run out of gas. Ditching a P8 with 9 crew on board is not an option. Ditching an uncrewed Valkyrie costing 3 MCAD is an option.

To extend time in the air it is best to maximize fuel which means minimizing weapons. Better to keep your aircraft unarmed and your kill shots on the ground. Range is your friend.

....

A ship on patrol, assuming there is one available has to steam to the area of interest at 25 knots or so and get close enough to start launching helicopters and boats and find the target. It also has to close with the target to engage it. And a non lethal boarding party requires very close engagement indeed.

If the target is disinclined to be boarded tbe options need to include eliminating the target.

Once again, sending a kill shot from land is preferable to using a round from the ship's magazine as the ship may need that round for its own survival before it can return to a port and replenish.

....

Nobody is arguing for replcements here.

We are all arguing for layers, for depth, for insurance....at least cost.

My opinion, for what little it is worth, is that there is value in a mix of 1500 km precision guided anti-ship missiles and 5600 km rocket launched UAVs covering the maritime approaches to Canada in all three oceans.

I also think it makes sense to continue the NORAD/Northcom A2AD trend of melding air, naval and ground domains into one comprehensive defenc(s)e plan. NORAD is now facing new long range aerial threats, missiles and quadcopters.

They are the primary threats and best managed with an air defence plan. Part of that plan has to be ability to engage launch platforms at point of launch, rapidly, in any weather. That is why I propose nesting a long range surface to surface capability in a regional air defence regiment.

Much like the US Army is proposing in their Multi Domain Task Forces and the USMC is proposing in their Littoral Combat Regiments.

If nothing else, adding a ground domain capability will extend the useful lives of both air and sea domain assets.
 
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I understand that people use what is available but....

Aircraft have limited duration in the air and are at the mercy of the weather. They spend most of their time in a hangar at an airfield with miles of asphalt and cement that is regularly swept by those people not actively engaged in finding spare parts to keep some portion of the fleet fit to fly.

Once over the area of interest then they have to find the target of interest before they run out of gas. Ditching a P8 with 9 crew on board is not an option. Ditching an uncrewed Valkyrie costing 3 MCAD is an option.

To extend time in the air it is best to maximize fuel which means minimizing weapons. Better to keep your aircraft unarmed and your kill shots on the ground. Range is your friend.

....

A ship on patrol, assuming there is one available has to steam to the area of interest at 25 knots or so and get close enough to start launching helicopters and boats and find the target. It also has to close with the target to engage it. And a non lethal boarding party requires very close engagement indeed.

If the target is disinclined to be boarded tbe options need to include eliminating the target.

Once again, sending a kill shot from land is preferable to using a round from the ship's magazine as the ship may need that round for its own survival before it can return to a port and replenish.

....

Nobody is arguing for replcements here.

We are all arguing for layers, for depth, for insurance....at least cost.

My opinion, for what little it is worth, is that there is value in a mix of 1500 km precision guided anti-ship missiles and 5600 km rocket launched UAVs covering the maritime approaches to Canada in all three oceans.

I also think it makes sense to continue the NORAD/Northcom A2AD trend of melding air, naval and ground domains into one comprehensive defenc(s)e plan. NORAD is now facing new long range aerial threats, missiles and quadcopters.

They are the primary threats and best managed with an air defence plan. Part of that plan has to be ability to engage launch platforms at point of launch, rapidly, in any weather. That is why I propose nesting a long range surface to surface capability in a regional air defence regiment.

Much like the US Army is proposing in their Multi Domain Task Forces and the USMC is proposing in their Littoral Combat Regiments.

If nothing else, adding a ground domain capability will extend the useful lives of both air and sea domain assets.
Your post makes no sense. You’re utterly conflating find/fix/strike as it those are all the same phase and the same platform. You’re also bouncing randomly back and forth between different types of threats. If you’re launching a land based missile at a target, you already know where it is and that it’s enough of a threat to warrant a missile to the face. Assuming you’re talking about shooting a PrSM LBASM, you’ve got probably a bit over 1000km range. With tactical aircraft carrying air launched anti ship missiles, you’ve got a much larger bubble than that.

Any obviously military vessel is being observed much farther out than that my various means, and we would have indicators of hostile state intent by other means that are completely different still.

If we’re talking about a hostile enemy maritime task force, we’re talking a conventional war. Odds are they get picked off well beyond the range of any land based rocket artillery.

If, conversely, we’re talking about something that’s not a clear military threat, then we aren’t shooting a missile at it. There would be a ton of all source intelligence focus on defining just what it is, and then likely an interception and boarding well out to sea. If a vessel should fall into a particular threat profile where it IS a threat legally justifying forcible interdiction, it doesn’t call for warheads on foreheads, but they’re forcibly resisting boarding, then you’re probably talking about a CANSOFCOM led operation to disable and/or eventually forcibly board it, and probably handing over to law enforcement once secured.

Start with identifying and defining the threat, figure out the applicable legal situation, determine if it’s a military or law enforcement response, and then use the time, space, resources and capabilities at hand. But no conversation on this can make sense if you don’t decide what threat you’re actually taking about and staying in that lane. Shooting a PrSM at a ship off the coast of Canada can basically only happen in a conventional war setting.
 
Aircraft have limited duration in the air and are at the mercy of the weather. They spend most of their time in a hangar at an airfield with miles of asphalt and cement that is regularly swept by those people not actively engaged in finding spare parts to keep some portion of the fleet fit to fly.

Once over the area of interest then they have to find the target of interest before they run out of gas. Ditching a P8 with 9 crew on board is not an option. Ditching an uncrewed Valkyrie costing 3 MCAD is an option.

Wait till you learn about satellites. That will blow your mind.
 
If you are not sure of the nature and intent of s target you launch a drone, thus the inclusion of the 5600 km UAV in the discussion.
 
Your post makes no sense. You’re utterly conflating find/fix/strike as it those are all the same phase and the same platform. You’re also bouncing randomly back and forth between different types of threats.
Makes perfect sense if you start with the answer ("Buy more HIMARS launchers.") and work backwards to a scenario justifying your outcome.
 
If you are not sure of the nature and intent of s target you launch a drone, thus the inclusion of the 5600 km UAV in the discussion.

What exactly are you trying to defend from that you need detailed information on a dark contact 5600 km out? Over and above what satellites will pick up.

Basically, you're suggesting that Canada needs to launch drones for a dark target in the Baltic Sea (East Coast) or Kurile Islands (West Coast). That's what 5600 km is.
 
What exactly are you trying to defend from that you need detailed information on a dark contact 5600 km out? Over and above what satellites will pick up.

Basically, you're suggesting that Canada needs to launch drones for a dark target in the Baltic Sea (East Coast) or Kurile Islands (West Coast). That's what 5600 km is.

Do you want an answer or do you just want to be argumentative?

5600 km allows for circling an area of interest 1000 km out for 3600 km and returning to base.

What is the range of the CP140? 9300 km?

The P8? 8300 km?

MQ-9B? 11,000 km?

....

As to the value of satellite intelligence. Are you suggesting that a satellite alone can determine capability and intent? Or that it can supply an uninterrupted observation? Or that it can make itself known to the target and influence the target's activities?

Has anyone yet surrendered to a satellite? They have surrendered to "drones".

....

You keep talking about HIMARS. HIMARS as such don't interest me.

What interests me is what they can launch and what those things represent. Reducing costs, increasing capabilities and increasing ranges. And a vanishing gap between smart missiles and UAVs.

The calculus that was valid 5 years ago needs to be revisited.

And most of our big ticket programs began decades ago and delivery is not for another decade from now with life expectancies that can leave them in active service a century after they left the drawing board.

....
 
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