Canada moves to 2% GDP end of FY25/26 - PMMC

[Kirkhill]

All of Saab worldwide is 30k. That includes their land systems, marine systems and ordinance businesses. The idea that Canada would have the equivalent of 40-50% of total Saab global employment for a fixed order of a few dozen jets stretches incredulity.

And they made only a few hundred direct jobs in Brazil. I can't believe how gullible people are after watching Saab pull the same schtick in Brazil.

I don't think the idea is to transfer any Swedish jobs to Canada beyond some managerial ones. (A buddy of mine can give you a head start on a corporate Swenglish dictionary).

I think the intent is to license Swedish technologies to Canadians for Canadian use and Canadian export.

Sweden is a small country relatively speaking and land for new large factories may be hard to come by.

 

[Kirkhill]

Sweden to rural Saskatchewan

https://www.mining.com/sandvik-to-build-37m-mining-service-hub-in-canada/

 

[Rifleman62]

.

 

[ytz]

Sweden is a small country relatively speaking and land for new large factories may be hard to come by.

Sweden is not short of space to build factories for defence production.

I don't think the idea is to transfer any Swedish jobs to Canada beyond some managerial ones.

I never said that. I said the idea that we would get 40% of the number of jobs for a single digit percentage of their business is a claim that is a stretch. And if they are sticking by that claim then it's hard to see how it doesn't involve moving work from elsewhere.

 

[Kirkhill]

Sweden is not short of space to build factories for defence production.

Sweden is a highly regulated society. Their neighbours say that the most common Swedish phrase is "It is not allowed".

It wouldn't surprise me if zoning was limiting growth in a way it might not over here.

I never said that. I said the idea that we would get 40% of the number of jobs for a single digit percentage of their business is a claim that is a stretch. And if they are sticking by that claim then it's hard to see how it doesn't involve moving work from elsewhere.

Saab submits proposal for Canadian Gripen and GlobalEye production with over 12,000 jobs

Saab has submitted proposals to the Canadian government to build Gripen fighter jets and GlobalEye surveillance aircraft in Canada, with the potential to create 12,600 jobs.

defence-industry.eu

Built for Canada by Canadians | Saab

Beyond Gripen’s unmatched capability and value, Saab’s firm commitment to provide significant economic and industrial benefits to Canada through an innovative Transfer of Technology and Knowledge programme and global industrial partnerships will have an unprecedented impact on the Canadian...

www.saab.com

I am not taking things as read. This is, after all, a sales pitch. But we did go looking for these types of deals.

 

[YZT580]

Sweden is a highly regulated society. Their neighbours say that the most common Swedish phrase is "It is not allowed".

It wouldn't surprise me if zoning was limiting growth in a way it might not over here.

Saab submits proposal for Canadian Gripen and GlobalEye production with over 12,000 jobs

Saab has submitted proposals to the Canadian government to build Gripen fighter jets and GlobalEye surveillance aircraft in Canada, with the potential to create 12,600 jobs.

defence-industry.eu

Built for Canada by Canadians | Saab

Beyond Gripen’s unmatched capability and value, Saab’s firm commitment to provide significant economic and industrial benefits to Canada through an innovative Transfer of Technology and Knowledge programme and global industrial partnerships will have an unprecedented impact on the Canadian...

www.saab.com

I am not taking things as read. This is, after all, a sales pitch. But we did go looking for these types of deals.

Going to be a hard offer to refuse. Between Trump's bullying tactics and tariffs and Saab ensuring that every Canadian hears about the sweet deal they are offering a mixed fleet looks more and more likely.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Going to be a hard offer to refuse. Between Trump's bullying tactics and tariffs and Saab ensuring that every Canadian hears about the sweet deal they are offering a mixed fleet looks more and more likely.

Trump yammering on again about Greenland doesn’t help their cause.

 

[Good2Golf]

Going to be a hard offer to refuse. Between Trump's bullying tactics and tariffs and Saab ensuring that every Canadian hears about the sweet deal they are offering a mixed fleet looks more and more likely.

It’ll be an easy offer to refuse.

So we’ll replace the majority US ITAR-controlled Lockheed F-35 with…the…ummm…US ITAR-controlled SAAB Gripen E?

 

[YZT580]

It’ll be an easy offer to refuse.

So we’ll replace the majority US ITAR-controlled Lockheed F-35 with…the…ummm…US ITAR-controlled SAAB Gripen E?

for you maybe but 12,000 jobs on the table (whether true or not, they said it); you got Trump for people to get ticked off at and shop elsewhere; the press pushing the cheaper notion again whether true or not, it is out there; all the arguments that the Saab placed second and will fulfill most of the tasks we need a/c for; and finally, a bunch of politicians trying to buy votes. It is politics and military requirements come second, sorry it will be hard to refuse. You had better come up with some very solid arguments against it or, better yet, a better mixed fleet alternative.

 

[Good2Golf]

12,000? Really?

I’ll give you an option…and one that I think may actually be in play well behind the scenes. Rafale M. Non-ITAR, yet able to interoperate with the USN on CVNs and also flying interoperable with France, which is one of the Euro big dogs. Dassault sets up manufacturing in Quebec for second and third flights after delivering first flight from build-up in France. Perhaps 2500-3000 employees first and second-order from Dassault and associated ITBs.


Edit to add: Saab placed ‘second’ was only because both Dassault and Eurofighter pulled themselves out of the previous government’s virtuously signally fiasco show and didn’t want to play in a little dog playing up to the brother big dog. If F-35, Rafale, Typhoon and Gripen all flew against the requirements, I don’t think the Gripen would still be #2. And people for some reason keep plugging their ears and singing ‘La, la, la’ on the ITAR issue with the Gripen…US-made GE F414 engines ITAR-controlled. Avionics: HUD ITAR-controlled, TACAN ITAR-controlled, VOR/ILS ITAR-controlled. What do people not understand about the Gripen being controlled by the US?

 

[Kirkhill]

Everybody keeps focusing on the Gripen.

I think the real deal is for SAAB with or without the Gripen.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Everybody keeps focusing on the Gripen.

I think the real deal is for SAAB with or without the Gripen.

Then for the Gripen to even have a chance of occurring here, we are more than likely sticking with 88 F35’s or slightly less than that number in order to try convince the US to allow us to add the Gripen as well.

 

[ytz]

Sweden is a highly regulated society. Their neighbours say that the most common Swedish phrase is "It is not allowed".

It wouldn't surprise me if zoning was limiting growth in a way it might not over here.

That's not the same thing as no land. Also, we're not substantially less regulated on this front.

I am not taking things as read. This is, after all, a sales pitch. But we did go looking for these types of deals.

I'm just saying the numbers are highly suspect.

Then for the Gripen to even have a chance of occurring here, we are more than likely sticking with 88 F35’s or slightly less than that number in order to try convince the US to allow us to add the Gripen as well.

Zero chance the F-35 order doesn't get cut if the Gripen is ordered.

1) We don't have enough pilots and techs to operate 140+ fighters.

2) I'm not sure the government can afford 140+ fighters.

3) Not cutting some F-35 orders may not send the message the government wants, on other issues like trade.

 

[Czech_pivo]

That's not the same thing as no land. Also, we're not substantially less regulated on this front.



I'm just saying the numbers are highly suspect.



Zero chance the F-35 order doesn't get cut if the Gripen is ordered.

1) We don't have enough pilots and techs to operate 140+ fighters.

2) I'm not sure the government can afford 140+ fighters.

3) Not cutting some F-35 orders may not send the message the government wants, on other issues like trade.

Time will eventually tell who of us is right and who is wrong on this.

Magic eight ball for me says:
65-88 F35’s
54-72 Gripen E’s

Don’t see how the RCAF doesn’t have the same sort of overall increase in size/capability that the RCN will experience with the possibility of 15 Rivers, 12 Subs and 12 CDC’s in addition to the rest. Same with the Army, though they look to be the last to be fleshed out in terms of overall growth.

 

[lenaitch]

12,000? Really?

I’ll give you an option…and one that I think may actually be in play well behind the scenes. Rafale M. Non-ITAR, yet able to interoperate with the USN on CVNs and also flying interoperable with France, which is one of the Euro big dogs. Dassault sets up manufacturing in Quebec for second and third flights after delivering first flight from build-up in France. Perhaps 2500-3000 employees first and second-order from Dassault and associated ITBs.


Edit to add: Saab placed ‘second’ was only because both Dassault and Eurofighter pulled themselves out of the previous government’s virtuously signally fiasco show and didn’t want to play in a little dog playing up to the brother big dog. If F-35, Rafale, Typhoon and Gripen all flew against the requirements, I don’t think the Gripen would still be #2. And people for some reason keep plugging their ears and singing ‘La, la, la’ on the ITAR issue with the Gripen…US-made GE F414 engines ITAR-controlled. Avionics: HUD ITAR-controlled, TACAN ITAR-controlled, VOR/ILS ITAR-controlled. What do people not understand about the Gripen being controlled by the US?

Is there any indication that there have been overt/covert discussions between Canada and France at any level?

 

[ytz]

Time will eventually tell who of us is right and who is wrong on this.

Magic eight ball for me says:
65-88 F35’s
54-72 Gripen E’s

We already had the Globe and Mail leak on this a few months ago. And the ratio was flipped with the F-35 being cut to under 40 frames.

Don’t see how the RCAF doesn’t have the same sort of overall increase in size/capability that the RCN

The people pushing the Gripen don't at all care about capability.

 

[ytz]

for you maybe but 12,000 jobs on the table (whether true or not, they said it); you got Trump for people to get ticked off at and shop elsewhere; the press pushing the cheaper notion again whether true or not, it is out there; all the arguments that the Saab placed second and will fulfill most of the tasks we need a/c for; and finally, a bunch of politicians trying to buy votes. It is politics and military requirements come second, sorry it will be hard to refuse. You had better come up with some very solid arguments against it or, better yet, a better mixed fleet alternative.

If we're doing to do a second fleet why can't we at least have a competition that seeks to maximize jobs this time? Seems silly to hand Saab a sole source even if we want jobs.

On a better mixed fleet idea, it's simple. The expanded LIFT fleet/light fighter. And several countries have done this. More and more considering it.

 

[GR66]

That's not the same thing as no land. Also, we're not substantially less regulated on this front.
Agreed. I don't think lack of domestic capacity has anything to do with the offer.

I'm just saying the numbers are highly suspect.
Again agreed.

Zero chance the F-35 order doesn't get cut if the Gripen is ordered. You're probably correct. But I think cutting to anything less than 65 is a very poor decision which means you need to grow the overall fighter fleet because 44 each of F-35's and Gripens isn't enough of either.

1) We don't <currently> have enough pilots and techs to operate 140+ fighters.

2) I'm not sure the government can afford 140+ fighters.
We can afford it...but will the government choose to do it.
3) Not cutting some F-35 orders may not send the message the government wants, on other issues like trade.

 

[Maxman1]

You can break up a quote by hitting enter, to make responses more clear than entering them in the quote box.

 

[Czech_pivo]

We already had the Globe and Mail leak on this a few months ago. And the ratio was flipped with the F-35 being cut to under 40 frames.



The people pushing the Gripen don't at all care about capability.

To be clear, I’m not pushing for the Gripen (like I get a choice in the matter, lol), but in trying to read the writing on this wall, having some mix of Gripen/F35 seems to be a done deal.