Canada/US Border Integrity Thread

[Good2Golf]

Because if there is no demand there is no need for supply.

Say it works. Invasion, occupation insurgency for 20 years.

Do you truly think that if the demand is still there that the vaccum won’t be filled by another supplier?

Foreign action plus domestic indifference and in some cases de facto collusion, have directly grown consumption and inherently affected demand in a manner that is well out of proportion to the demanders (consumers) of the past.

If by ‘address demand’ you are willing to include facilitators that have willfully or not, reinforced and increased demand, then yes, I’m all for that.

If by ‘address demand’ you mean only to deal with users, then I think you are under-appreciating the part that domestic institutional elements have played in the situation.

 

[QV]

no new wars eh?

The war has been going on for decades and has only gotten worse. Nothing material has been done about it.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I’m getting the suspicion that people here aren’t understanding the volume of trade that goes between US and Mexico, and what the border looks like in some key areas.

This is the bridge between El Paso, TX and Ciudad Juarez. In the picture, Mexico is to the right - so all those cars / trucks are going north into Texas. Of the two, Juarez is by far the larger city.

View attachment 90554


All that today that an East German-style wall between US and Mexico is a non-starter - “the trade must flow”.

There is 2 lines there - one is for trucks (trade) and one is for autos (personal).

I grew up in Windsor Ontario and am well versed on US-Canada trade (I've lived/worked in Windsor and in Detroit).

The number of trucks that are sent to secondary inspection is incredibly small - substantially increasing that number will have a dramatic impact on the volume of drugs entering the country.

On the personal side of things, making the crossing into the US as rigorous as it used to be when entering East Germany or Czechoslovakia should be considered. It is NOT a right to be a tourist and enter into another country, its a privilege to be allowed in.

 

[Brad Sallows]

This is the bridge between El Paso, TX and Ciudad Juarez. In the picture, Mexico is to the right - so all those cars / trucks are going north into Texas. Of the two, Juarez is by far the larger city.

View attachment 90554

Time of day? I suppose it's probable that at another time of day the flow might be reversed.

 

[Brad Sallows]

A reason to address the "demand side" of illegal drug flows is that the countries paying the money and putting people into harm's way to try to take down drug gangs expect the countries creating the demand in the first place to contribute something by removing the reason to produce and export illegal drugs.

 

[Remius]

The war has been going on for decades and has only gotten worse. Nothing material has been done about it.

Like Ukraine and Israel etc yet you think those are all “new” under Biden. Just trying to keep your shifting world view straight.

I think that kinectic activity is required and can be increased but the how much and where etc is in dispute. Rolling tanks into Mexico with troops and such is likely not the way.

El Salvador’s solution that someone posted could be that solution if incentivized and concurrent to curbing demand or making demand not worth the effort.

 

[QV]

Certainly a multifaceted approach is required, and I think that would need to include going kinetic against the cartels, which I don't think Mexico can do on it's own. I watched a documentary on the El Salvador solution and highly endorse that as a part of the overall package. If you wish, you can add social programs at the end-user point though I'm not sure what else can be done on that which isn't already in place.

Biden's time amplified the problems in both those areas.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

Will the American people be receptive to said blowback?

It’s one thing to have American military members die “over there” in Afghanistan prior to the rise of social media, but I cannot see the greater US public being ok with their boys and girls from Iowa (or worse, El Paso TX) dying in Juarez literally across the Rio Grande.

My crystal ball would say there is a huge shock and awe push, like Iraq in 2003, then…well, the rest of Iraq until 2014.

It would be messy for sure.

I’m getting the suspicion that people here aren’t understanding the volume of trade that goes between US and Mexico, and what the border looks like in some key areas.

This is the bridge between El Paso, TX and Ciudad Juarez. In the picture, Mexico is to the right - so all those cars / trucks are going north into Texas. Of the two, Juarez is by far the larger city.

View attachment 90554


All that today that an East German-style wall between US and Mexico is a non-starter - “the trade must flow”.

Vast majority of commerical traffic isn't even checked. We would need to make big investments in this regard.

Like Ukraine and Israel etc yet you think those are all “new” under Biden. Just trying to keep your shifting world view straight.

I think that kinectic activity is required and can be increased but the how much and where etc is in dispute. Rolling tanks into Mexico with troops and such is likely not the way.

El Salvador’s solution that someone posted could be that solution if incentivized and concurrent to curbing demand or making demand not worth the effort.

I think targeted assassinations, raids and seek & destroy missions should on the table.

Creating a buffer zone between Northern Mexico and the US that is occupied and monitored by the US Army could also be on the table.

I think a scaled up version of the methods employed by the Apartheid Era South African Army would work well for this type of operation:

 

[QV]

Cartels are driven by wealth and power. Not religious zealotry. The second they figure out they're about to lose both fast, they will take their winnings and cash out. Sure, it will be messy at the start and there will be a few holdouts. But I do not think this would be remotely close to the scale of an Islamic insurgency.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

Cartels are driven by wealth and power. Not religious zealotry. The second they figure out they're about to lose both fast, they will take their winnings and cash out. Sure, it will be messy at the start and there will be a few holdouts. But I do not think this would be remotely close to the scale of an Islamic insurgency.

Look at Somali Piracy as a great example. It was all but eradicated in a few years because the opportunity cost became way too large for the Pirates with high risk of getting filled with holes if an attempt was made.

 

[Good2Golf]

A reason to address the "demand side" of illegal drug flows is that the countries paying the money and putting people into harm's way to try to take down drug gangs expect the countries creating the demand in the first place to contribute something by removing the reason to produce and export illegal drugs.

And to be clear about the band’s of my comments about demand and supply, I’m talking specifically about Canada and the nexus of China-based narcotics activity, and how it has been allowed to grow in Canada, and depending on interpretation of government(s) activities/policiy(ies), exacerbated the drug issue domestically. Safe sites, government-sponsored drug exchange, etc… all play significantly into how badly the situation has unfolded in Canada.

 

[Remius]

And to be clear about the band’s of my comments about demand and supply, I’m talking specifically about Canada and the nexus of China-based narcotics activity, and how it has been allowed to grow in Canada, and depending on interpretation of government(s) activities/policiy(ies), exacerbated the drug issue domestically. Safe sites, government-sponsored drug exchange, etc… all play significantly into how badly the situation has unfolded in Canada.

No one, especially Canada is going to go Iraqi Freedom against China.

 

[RangerRay]

I’m posting these two articles to this thread even though I posted them before on another thread. I think they are highly relevant.

We are getting too wrapped up in border patrols, drones, helicopters, provincial LEOs intruding on federal jurisdiction, when the real criminal and national security threats to us and the US are largely being overlooked.

Trump ally on Canada’s fentanyl talk: Not good enough | RCI

U.S. officials urge Canada to start tackling big, systemic problems with organized crime

ici.radio-canada.ca

Canada needs more than drones, helicopters to ease cross-border drug crime concerns, advisers to Trump say

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has pledged 25-per-cent tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico until they halt an ‘invasion’ of powerful narcotics and immigrants

www.theglobeandmail.com

 

[OldSolduer]

I’m posting these two articles to this thread even though I posted them before on another thread. I think they are highly relevant.

We are getting too wrapped up in border patrols, drones, helicopters, provincial LEOs intruding on federal jurisdiction, when the real criminal and national security threats to us and the US are largely being overlooked.

Trump ally on Canada’s fentanyl talk: Not good enough | RCI

U.S. officials urge Canada to start tackling big, systemic problems with organized crime

ici.radio-canada.ca

Canada needs more than drones, helicopters to ease cross-border drug crime concerns, advisers to Trump say

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has pledged 25-per-cent tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico until they halt an ‘invasion’ of powerful narcotics and immigrants

www.theglobeandmail.com

Until we reduce the demand for illicit drugs we will always see a supplier. Reduce the demand.

 

[MrWhyt]

Isn’t Mexico’s military involved in that already? How is that working?

Los Zetas, one of the most feared cartels, started in the 90s as Mexican army SOF who realized that they would make more money working for the cartels, then realized they'd make even more money becoming a cartel of their own. Safe to say that the mexican military isn't 100% reliable.

 

[Czech_pivo]

No one, especially Canada is going to go Iraqi Freedom against China.

lol, we'd be challenged to go Luxembourg Freedom, think along the lines of Andorra Freedom.

 

[QV]

Until we reduce the demand for illicit drugs we will always see a supplier. Reduce the demand.

Unless it is cost prohibitive to do business like Somali piracy became.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

CBSA a number of years ago found 1300 illegal guns in the 3% of cargo they searched. I suspect 50% of that cargo was targeted, but if you can double the number of searches, you will make a dent.

 

[dapaterson]

CBSA a number of years ago found 1300 illegal guns in the 3% of cargo they searched. I suspect 50% of that cargo was targeted, but if you can double the number of searches, you will make a dent.

And JIT supply chains fall apart if you dramatically increase searches.

Intelligence informed searches are probably the sweet spot.

 

[Halifax Tar]

And JIT supply chains fall apart if you dramatically increase searches.

Intelligence informed searches are probably the sweet spot.

Can wish and temu get slower ?

I jest... Down with JIT Supply Chains.