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Canada-US Trade Relations

Altair:
Despite having no evidence that Canada is asking for any of those things

Google it. Lots of news stories right from the beginning, but I guess they were all fake.

Your reply missed the point: why is this cartel holding up a deal? I don't care if all parties support it. That does make it right for Cdns. Do you think if dairy/poultry prices dropped 60% or so, Cdn consumers would want to go back to five buck jug of milk when they could buy it for two bucks?
 
Rifleman62 said:
Altair:
Google it. Lots of news stories right from the beginning, but I guess they were all fake.
Fake?  No,  they were real. But these are negotiations,  and I have bo double these opening positions were quickly moved from. Its a common tactic in negotiations,  demand something outrageous that you have no intention of getting,  but can claim that you "sacrificed" or compromised from these positions.  The USA moved on some pretty outrageous opening positions as well, so the fact that we are not hearing about them probably means that they are no longer on the table
Your reply missed the point: why is this cartel holding up a deal? I don't care if all parties support it. That does make it right for Cdns. Do you think if dairy/poultry prices dropped 60% or so, Cdn consumers would want to go back to five buck jug of milk when they could buy it for two bucks?
The only reason I can think of is that with all the subsidies american dairy gets, it would amount to dumping if they were allowed unfettered access to our dairy market. You know,  the thing they constantly accuse the BC government and BC lumber companies of doing.  Nobody like it.

That said,  I supported Bernier for leader of the CPC,  with the hopes that he would kill supply management (not to let the Americans swoop in mind you,  but for Canadian producers to compete with each other and drop prices domestically,  so I doubt even bernier would lower the tariffs). But then we get Andrew Scheer,  who shamelessly panders to the dairy cartel,  so in truth,  the LPC is probably the most flexible of the 3 major parties in terms of the dairy cartel, so I wouldn't pin that impending disaster on Trudeaus feet.

So while the Libs have not done the best job (and to be fair,  neither has america) on these renegotiations,  I would hope that you at least be fair in your criticisms. No Canadian party was expected to need to go through this while campaigning in 2015.
 
Seems Canadians still want to travel to the U.S. despite Trump and despite a trade war.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/canada-tourist-travel-to-united-states-increase-since-trump-1.4764663
 
Maxime Bernier Says He's The Only One Who Wants Truly Free Trade With U.S.

OTTAWA — Conservative MP Maxime Bernier says he's the only politician in Ottawa who supports truly free trade with the U.S., and while it's not his role to negotiate NAFTA with U.S. President Donald Trump, he thinks it's "sad" he's the only one who wants to put supply management on the trading table.

In the weeks following Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer's decision to strip Bernier of his critic role, the Beauce MP has maintained a pretty low profile.

But as trade tensions increase between Canada and the U.S., the staunch advocate of ending Canada's supply management system for milk, eggs and poultry — a program popular with dairy farmers in Quebec, including in his riding — feels compelled to speak up.

. . .

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/08/02/maxime-bernier-nafta-us-free-trade_a_23494521/?utm_hp_ref=ca-homepage

The problem is that milk is a product whose demand is artificially generated through aggressive advertising extolling somewhat exaggerated health benefits.

. . . According to a study of 107,000 Swedish adults published in the medical journal BMJ, a diet rich in milk could have detrimental health consequences.. . . They conclude that the findings "question the validity" of the long-held belief that drinking milk has net health benefits, although they caution that further research is needed.

There's just not a lot of evidence supporting dairy industry claims that drinking milk is good for you, writes Indiana University School of Medicine Prof Aaron E Carroll for the New York Times.

"More than 10,000 years ago, when human beings began to domesticate animals, no adults or older children consumed milk," he writes. "Many people don't drink it today because they are lactose intolerant. They do just fine."
. . .

https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-echochambers-30091795

The whole structure of supply management came about in the 1950s and 60s because there was an oversupply of milk in the Canadian market as Britain ( a large importer of Canadian dairy) turned to the EU.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dairy_farming_in_Canada#History

Similarly, in the US there has been a large downturn in milk consumption since the heydays of the 60' and 70s and American farmers are finding themselves with surplus supplies

2015 - US Sales of Dairy Milk Fall as Non-Dairy Milk Sales Rise

"Driven by negative health perceptions, reduced retail prices and exports and a growing number of non-dairy alternatives, the US dairy milk market has declined in recent years, as new research from Mintel reveals that sales of dairy milk decreased 7 percent in 2015 ($17.8 billion) and are projected to drop another 11 percent through 2020. Seen as a better-for-you (BFY) alternative to dairy milk, non-dairy milk offerings continue to see strong growth, with gains of 9 percent in 2015 to reach $1.9 billion."

https://milk.procon.org/view.timeline.php?timelineID=000018

. . . Just three decades ago, America was a milk guzzling nation. About 247 pounds of milk was consumed every year.

But consumption dropped to 154 pounds in 2016, according to the United States Department of Agriculture. . . .

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2018/06/08/dairy-farmers-hit-hard-by-declining-demand.html

(As an aside, the drop of USD17.8 Billion in the US industry is roughly equivalent the Canadian milk industry's  total contribution to our GDP (CAD18.9 Billion))

I remember back in the late 50s and early 60s how we were pushed into consuming milk: the creation of "dairy" servings in our food charts, free milk for kids at school, constant advertising that we needed milk to grow strong bones etc. There may have been a time in the post WW2 years where nutrition wasn't the best and milk had some benefits but these days the vast majority of us have access to healthy foods (even if we choose unhealthy ones) Take a look at the nutrition chart on your carton of milk and see what you get. You'll find it's less than you expected and is mostly what you already get from other foods.

I'm not down on milk. I drink some myself from time to time. I just don't think that the milk industry (formed by a small closed club of high end producers mostly in Quebec and Ontario -- and, for that matter, the egg and poultry industry) are worth: firstly, in being legislatively propped up by artificially high consumer prices and secondly, being the reason we should all fall on our swords in the NAFTA talks.

I'm with Bernier on this one. I can't see why we Conservatives are taking the position we are. It goes against our basic philosophy and, quite frankly, there aren't enough rural votes involved to make it a politically sound position. One could get more votes by championing the consumer side of the argument.

[cheers]
 
FJAG,

I am the son of a former dairy farmer. He got out of the business in the 1970s, just as quotas were coming in.

Even with that history and with still knowing some active dairy farmers, I cannot support supply management.

It distorts the entire market and is preventing some much needed innovation in our farm/food production sector. For example, how many cheese/yogurt producers has Canada forgone over the past few years, because new entries to the market cannot secure milk supply?

Let supply management go, already.
 
Agree, as posted several times. It's a strong cartel, somewhat like the CWB  (which only curtailed western farmers). Why are tankers banned on the western coast of Canada and not the eastern coast?
 
SeaKingTacco said:
FJAG,

I am the son of a former dairy farmer. He got out of the business in the 1970s, just as quotas were coming in.

Even with that history and with still knowing some active dairy farmers, I cannot support supply management.

It distorts the entire market and is preventing some much needed innovation in our farm/food production sector. For example, how many cheese/yogurt producers has Canada forgone over the past few years, because new entries to the market cannot secure milk supply?

Let supply management go, already.
I would 100 percent back the removal of supply management, and wish Bernier had won the leadership over Scheer for that reason, but I that would not mean I would allow the Americans to flood our market.

Kills supply management, but keep the tariffs is my take on it. At least until the Americans remove all subsidies for their dairy farmers.
 
Altair said:
I would 100 percent back the removal of supply management, and wish Bernier had won the leadership over Scheer for that reason, but I that would not mean I would allow the Americans to flood our market.

Kills supply management, but keep the tariffs is my take on it. At least until the Americans remove all subsidies for their dairy farmers.

I would agree to that. Or remove tariffs, but have our dairy subsidy structure exactly match the US structure. Wouldn't that make an interesting bargaining ploy?
 
SeaKingTacco said:
I would agree to that. Or remove tariffs, but have our dairy subsidy structure exactly match the US structure. Wouldn't that make an interesting bargaining ploy?
It would be. And it's an easy way around the supply management nightmare that all canadian political parties are currently locked into.

Wouldn't help the consumer or taxpayer much though. All the money that we currently pay into overpriced dairy products would just be spent in equivalent taxes that prop up the dairy industry instead.

It's a shell game really.
 
At this point, it all appears to be semantics. Trudeau and Freeland, took a gamble, bargained in bad faith and lost. Now the whole country loses while the rest of the world moves on to trade agreements with the US. It's hard to tell whether this was really their plan all along. It would fit with him backstabbing Trump and throwing away the deal that was on the table. Trudeau and Butts have been looking for ways to drive our economy into the dirt and they may have succeeded. Trudeau has not looked after Canada since taking office. No security, no borders, no trade, more taxes. I really can't think of anything he's done to strengthen our country, economy, militarily, trade or international diplomacy. All on top of giving away all of our hard earned tax money to questionable causes around the globe.

YMMV of course.
 
recceguy said:
At this point, it all appears to be semantics. Trudeau and Freeland, took a gamble, bargained in bad faith and lost. Now the whole country loses while the rest of the world moves on to trade agreements with the US. It's hard to tell whether this was really their plan all along. It would fit with him backstabbing Trump and throwing away the deal that was on the table. Trudeau and Butts have been looking for ways to drive our economy into the dirt and they may have succeeded. Trudeau has not looked after Canada since taking office. No security, no borders, no trade, more taxes. I really can't think of anything he's done to strengthen our country, economy, military, trade or international diplomacy. All on top of giving away all of our hard earned tax money to questionable causes around the globe.

YMMV of course.
Oh boy, let me try to do my best with this one.

Which country has signed a trade agreement with the United states to date?  The closest America has gotten is a handshake with the EU to not put more tariffs on European goods in exchange for a non commital intention to buy more US soybeans and LNG.

Mexico may be closing in on a deal with the USA,  but within NAFTA, means it still cannot be ratified without Canada. Also Mexico stands united with canada about no sunset clause.


The Canadian economy is ticking along at a rate of 2.6 percent growth

Trudeau and the liberals have negotiated both the TPP and CETA.

He bought a pipeline,  approved two others,  supported steel workers and the aerospace industry and unemployment is at its lowest point in decades.

I'm assuming this post was just hyperbole.
 
Altair said:
The Canadian economy is ticking along at a rate of 2.6 percent growth

Wrong. https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/statscan-gdp-economy-1.4685318 1.3% for first half of the year, on pace for 1.8% projected growth for the year. In fact, the average growth is the same as the previous government's growth rates after the recession in 2008, which indicates their policies have done nothing. In fact, Trudeau economic policies may actually hinder economic growth as household spending is a key driver, and with their carbon tax they'll be taking big chunks out of the average household's spending: https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/canadian-economy-shifting-to-a-lower-gear-in-2018-677379813.html

CETA was signed in Oct 2016, after years of negotiations under the previous government. The Liberals have also refused summer sittings requested by the Tories so that TPP could be ratified before the fall.

Which 2 pipelines? You cannot count Kinder Morgan as both approved and purchased. Government policy caused us to have to buy Kinder Morgan or else it would have had the plug pulled, its also still not starting the major construction due to protests and legal challenges. Keystone XL was already approved, the hold up was the US government. Once the President changed, it was approved, nothing the Liberals did made Keystone XL happen. Line 3 is the only one to actually have work done. Energy East was vital to Canadian independance from foreign oil, and would have given good jobs to a hard hit Atlantic Canada. It was cancelled to preserve seats in Quebec.

The problem you're not grasping with Canada cut out of high level NAFTA talks between the US and Mexico is that if you have 2 of 3 parties involved on the same page, Canada gets squeezed as the odd man out. Sure, Mexico won't budge on some of the long-shot issues the US has raised, but if they cut a deal for other concessions and then turn the screws to us to accept, we're left with very little bargaining power.

Colourful one liners are nice, but maybe actual research needs to be done.
 
It's hard to view issues in black and white while wearing rose coloured glasses.
 
Mexico will throw us under the bus in a second flat if it means a deal with the US. Just as we are likely to do to them.
 
PuckChaser said:
Wrong. https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/statscan-gdp-economy-1.4685318 1.3% for first half of the year, on pace for 1.8% projected growth for the year. In fact, the average growth is the same as the previous government's growth rates after the recession in 2008, which indicates their policies have done nothing.
Very true,  the number I sited was a 2.6 percent increase over last may. Still, economists do expect GDP growth of 1.5 to 2.0 growth for this year,  so the economy is still growing,  and the economy isn't being "driven into the ground" as others have stated.
  In fact, Trudeau economic policies may actually hinder economic growth as household spending is a key driver, and with their carbon tax they'll be taking big chunks out of the average household's spending: https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/canadian-economy-shifting-to-a-lower-gear-in-2018-677379813.html
  And the same money taken out of the economy due to carbon taxes will be given to canadians in forms of rebates.  I'm sure a lot of that money is going right back into the economy.
As for the growth of the Canadian economy,  I think its a harsh to say that the governments policies have done nothing to promote growth. We are coming off a year of 3 percent growth after all,  so its not like the economy struggling,  its doing rather well all things considered. 
CETA was signed in Oct 2016, after years of negotiations under the previous government. The Liberals have also refused summer sittings requested by the Tories so that TPP could be ratified before the fall.
  Correct,  negotiated by both parties.  But negotiated by both parties still means the liberals played their part in getting the deal done,  so saying that one can't think of anything he's done to strengthen our country, economy, military, trade is a case of selective memory.
Which 2 pipelines? You cannot count Kinder Morgan as both approved and purchased. Government policy caused us to have to buy Kinder Morgan or else it would have had the plug pulled, its also still not starting the major construction due to protests and legal challenges.
I can count it,
I will count it, because it was approved, and later purchased in order for it to not die. The only government policy that helped to convince the original owners to back away can be found in BC
  Keystone XL was already approved, the hold up was the US government. Once the President changed, it was approved, nothing the Liberals did made Keystone XL happen.
True,  but they still support it, and pushed both president obama and the current president to have it approved,  it is not like they sat on their hands and did nothing
  Line 3 is the only one to actually have work done.
Yes,  so that makes 3 that they have worked on trying to get done.
Energy East was vital to Canadian independance from foreign oil, and would have given good jobs to a hard hit Atlantic Canada. It was cancelled to preserve seats in Quebec.
3 of 5 isn't bad. I believe that the 3 approved take care of Alberta current export capacity as well,  unless the numbers have changed in that regard over the last two years.
The problem you're not grasping with Canada cut out of high level NAFTA talks between the US and Mexico is that if you have 2 of 3 parties involved on the same page, Canada gets squeezed as the odd man out. Sure, Mexico won't budge on some of the long-shot issues the US has raised, but if they cut a deal for other concessions and then turn the screws to us to accept, we're left with very little bargaining power.
Not ideal,  but the parts where the USA is making headway with Mexico isn't parts that really concern Canada. From what the Mexicans are saying, its making progress in regards to the auto sector,  about the country of origin percentage and the low wages paid to mexican auto workers. Not exactly something canada has to be super concerned about. No progress has been made in terms of the US sunset clause,  one of the canadian holdups(as reported by the press on both sides of the border)  and as far as the canadian dairy sector,  I don't see Mexico having a dog in that fight. As it stands,  NAFTA isn't dead,  its still in effect,  and without knowing what deal Canada ends up with its premature to be saying things like "Now the whole country loses while the rest of the world moves on to trade agreements with the US. They were critized for their negotiating tactics during both CETA and TPP and those deals turned out ok, so if they were open to being critized they should also get credit for helping close the deals. Also,  to date America has walked away from two trade agreements,  maybe 3, with no sign they will enter the TPP and their trade deal with the EU stalled,  maybe dead.
Colourful one liners are nice, but maybe actual research needs to be done.
You were very correct about GDP growth, mea culpa on that point. I did mix up numbers on that one.

As for the rest,  the liberals did work on the two trade agreements, they did push  and approve 3 pipelines, help steel and aerospace industries, the economy is still growing, unemployment is at a 4 year low,  and seeing as we have yet to see what the final NAFTA deal looks like,  we can't say who is going to come out the winner,  so I think that reecemans post was hyperbole and I will stand by that statement.
 
Altair said:
  Not ideal,  but the parts where the USA is making headway with Mexico isn't parts that really concern Canada. From what the Mexicans are saying, its making progress in regards to the auto sector,  about the country of origin percentage and the low wages paid to mexican auto workers. Not exactly something canada has to be super concerned about. No progress has been made in terms of the US sunset clause,  one of the canadian holdups(as reported by the press on both sides of the border)  and as far as the canadian dairy sector,  I don't see Mexico having a dog in that fight.
https://nationalpost.com/news/world/canada-need-not-worry-about-u-s-and-mexico-meeting-in-two-way-nafta-talks-analysts-say

Just going to quote myself for a second here, because, apparently the left leaning National Post stole my idea.

The threat is that if Lighthizer gets a deal with Mexico on chapter 19, he could then push Canada to agree. Diaz said that would be a mistake for both countries, as mounting U.S. protectionism could make biased anti-dumping and countervailing decisions more common.

“It is my understanding that Mexico decided a while back that that was more of a Canadian issue,” said Diaz. “Mexico said ‘Let them fight that battle, we won’t.’ ”

Lighthizer said last week he hopes to strike a deal on NAFTA with Mexico soon, then use it as leverage to exact “compromises” from Canada.

On autos, resolving another rules-of-origin demand by the U.S. — that 75 per cent of components be made in North America — is actually “doable” soon, argued Volpe.

That leaves wage levels, which isn’t an issue in Canada since no autoworker is paid less than $16 an hour.

“The implications of that proposal are extensively Mexican,” Volpe said.
 
https://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/canada-overcomes-trumps-metal-tariffs-with-record-exports?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1533303467

Canada’s merchandise trade deficit was lower than forecast after the U.S. imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum, as oil producers and aircraft makers led exports to a record high.

The trade gap narrowed to $626 million in June, down from $2.7 billion a month earlier, Statistics Canada said Friday in Ottawa. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were expecting a deficit of $2.3 billion.

Exports rose 4.1 per cent to a record $50.7 billion, with energy shipments rising 7.1 per cent to their highest since 2014 and aircraft sales jumping by almost 45 per cent. The return of several Canadian refineries to production after shutdowns also played a role in the 0.2 per cent decline in imports as demand for foreign gasoline tumbled.

economy looks okay to me.
 
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