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Canadian Public Opinion Polls on Afghanistan

One of the things I have noticed about the coverage is we now seem to be getting more reconstruction stories about the CF helping the Afghans.  Is that because of an improved security situation giving reporters more freedom of movement? Or is it because more projects are being organized close to the gates so that the reporters can get there?  Either way it serves the purpose and both show progress.
 
Various headlines in CanWest papers for the same Innovative Research Group poll--the differences are rather interesting.

Fewer deaths, more support for mission: Poll shows increase in backing as time passes after bloody era (Winnipeg Free Press)
http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/subscriber/canada/story/3842272p-4446024c.html

Support for Afghan mission increases: 58% of Canadians in favour of effort: poll (Ottawa Citizen)
http://www.canada.com/ottawacitizen/news/story.html?id=8d38e9ad-248d-48f6-86b5-34f11e8a64c9

Afghan mission gaining support (Calgary Herald)
http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/news/story.html?id=196da05f-449c-419c-b0ed-5587501d0666

Support for Afghan mission grows in new national poll (Victoria Times Colonist)
http://www.canada.com/victoriatimescolonist/news/story.html?id=1523a493-e9ea-4ffa-9db0-5d48ab225f1d

Support for Afghan mission growing, poll finds (Edmonton Journal)
http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/news/story.html?id=6c733f32-3ae1-4f36-aef1-5dad74ecf889

Support for troops growing (Windsor Star)
http://www.canada.com/windsorstar/news/story.html?id=636b4744-e43a-4088-af78-97d127084c58

Canadians support mission (Regina Leader-Post)
http://www.canada.com/reginaleaderpost/news/canada_world/story.html?id=de6a4839-6ccc-4356-a6c9-00f2d8659c1f

Afghan mission support shows slight rebound: Almost 60 per cent of Canadians back military action: poll (Saskatoon StarPhoenix)
http://www.canada.com/saskatoonstarphoenix/news/story.html?id=94973c1d-d1b7-4a99-b9b5-dd74a4f0a1f6&k=75831

Afghan mission support rebounds slightly (National Post)
http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/story.html?id=cdbdcfe9-ebcf-48ed-b6f3-42fc60e7e401

Afghan mission support rebounds slightly (Vancouver Sun)
http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/story.html?id=cdbdcfe9-ebcf-48ed-b6f3-42fc60e7e401&k=70059

Afghan mission support rebounds slightly (Montreal Gazette)
http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&tab=wn&ncl=1112691600&filter=0

Mark
Ottawa




 
the NDP?
They'll ignore it and hope it goes away
 
Interesting, as far as I can see no mention of this on Globe and Mail, The Toronto Star, CBC or CTV.

No mention.
 
It wouldn,t suprise me to find out the CBC did the poll during a special on the Canadian Airborne Regiment in Solmalia. Sounds so bizarre you just never know.....
 
So Canadians support the war on terror and are willing to commit troops, however, if any degree of risk were involved than Canadians should not commit?
Correct me if I'm wrong but the results of this pole provide distinct evidence that suggests the majority civilian Canadians are either delusional, indecisive or so incredibly self centered that they are willing to deceptively commit and then suddenly turn their backs and run when adversity strikes?
The globe and mail shouldn't be spending time and money producing a study that demonstates Canadian ignorance. Perhaps they should produce a pole that tests Canadian knowledge and perception regarding the of the conflict in Afghanistan.
 
I don't think you need to take it that badly.  Canadians have been quite happy to be "the Good Guys" for so long.  We fancy ourselves the buddies to the planet, and that is what gives everyone that mental edge over the Americans (illusory as it may be).  The media have been quite thrilled to distort this conflict from the beginning, but it is really hard to continue to rag on a righteous action for very long.  Education and awareness will eventually seep in.  If nothing else, the more people clue in to what "nice guys" we are by helping in A'stan, the more they will support it. 
Or maybe they only just realized that there is a Tim Horton's there.  Hard to call.  :p
 
Instead of just sharing media reports (available on GAP's AFG News Only Thread), I've posted the news release and tables of results here so we can get it, as much as one can in a media-driven-and-commissioned poll, straight from the horse's mouth. 

Most Canadian Support Troops In Light of Recent Investigation Into Afghanistan Abuses
But Canadians Remain Split On The Continued Military Effort In Afghanistan

Ipsos-Reid news release, February 22, 2007
Permalink to news release, tables of results

Toronto, ON – In the light of the recent launch of an investigation into allegations that Canadian soldiers may have mistreated detainees in Afghanistan, a new Ipsos Reid poll reports that most Canadians (63%) are sceptical that the Canadian public will ever really find out what happened. Many (37%), though, believe that investigation will get to the bottom of the issue.

Whatever the investigation’s finding might be, it appears as though Canadians’ support for their troops’ actions and behaviour in Afghanistan is unwavering:

* 73% agree that “whatever is reported back, it is probably an extremely isolated circumstance and not widespread among the Canadian forces”;
* 63% agree with the statement “I don’t believe that our Canadian troops are involved with torturing combatant prisoners”; and
* 86% agree that “our armed forces are doing a good job in Afghanistan”.

In fact, a good proportion of Canadians (39%) say they “don’t have a problem with our Canadian troops roughing up or manhandling combatant and Taliban prisoners because it’s a war zone”.

But while support for the actions and behaviour of Canada’s troops in Afghanistan is high, support for the military effort in Afghanistan is middling. Approximately half of Canadians:

* Agree with the statement that “Canada should pull its military out of Afghanistan as soon as possible” (49%); and

* Disagree with the statement that “If NATO forces don’t send more international troops, the Canadian military should stick it out until it’s tour of duty ends in 2009 as Afghanistan is too important to abandon” (47%).

Previously Ipsos Reid polls which asked “Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose the use of Canada’s troops for security and combat efforts against the Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan?” revealed a similar split in Canadian public opinion dating back to March 2006.

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid survey fielded from February 15th to 19th, 2007. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians were interviewed via an on-line survey. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within ± 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.

Most (63%) Don’t Believe Investigations Into Handling Of Detainees By Canadian Troops Will Find Out What Really Happened…

Question: As you may know, the Canadian authorities who are responsible for investigating how our troops behave in combat zones are looking into allegations that Canadian soldiers may have roughed up detainees in Afghanistan and that their misdeeds were ignored by the police. Do you believe that these investigations will get to the bottom of the allegations in the Canadian public will really find out what happened?

* Yes 37% -- most likely from Alberta 47%, followed by Atlantic Canada 43%, British Columbia 41%, Ontario 37%, Saskatchewan/Manitoba 36% and Québec 30%; men 42% and women 32%, older 41%.

* No 63% -- most likely from Québec 70%, followed by Saskatchewan/Manitoba 64% and Ontario 63%, British Columbia 59%, Atlantic Canada 57% and Alberta 53%; women 68% and men 50%, younger 68%.

Agree/Disagree Statements

Question: I don't have a problem with our Canadian troops roughing up or manhandling combatant and Taliban prisoners because it's a war zone.

* Agree 39% -- [strongly 11%/somewhat 28%] -- most likely from Alberta 64%, followed by Ontario and British Columbia 44%, Atlantic Canada 35%, Saskatchewan/Manitoba 23% and Québec 27%; men 53% and women 27%, middle-age 43%.

* Disagree 61% -- [strongly 36%/somewhat 24%] -- most likely from Québec 73% followed by Saskatchewan/Manitoba 67% and Atlantic Canada 65%, Ontario and British Columbia 56% and Alberta 36%; women 73% and men 47%, younger 65%.

Question: I don't believe that our Canadian troops are involved with torturing combatant prisoners

* Agree 63% -- [strongly 19%/somewhat 44%] -- most likely from British Columbia 66%, Alberta 65% and Ontario 64%, followed by Québec 61%, Atlantic Canada 60% and Saskatchewan/Manitoba 59%; men 65% and women 60%, older 69%.

* Disagree 37% -- [strongly 6%/somewhat 32%] -- most likely from Atlantic Canada 40%, Saskatchewan/Manitoba 41% and Québec [39%, followed by Ontario 36%, Alberta 35% and British Columbia 34%; women 40% and Man 35%, younger 43%.

Question: Whatever is reported back, it is probably an extremely isolated circumstance and not widespread among the Canadian forces

* Agree 73% -- [strongly 30%/somewhat 43%] -- most likely from Atlantic Canada 82% and British Columbia 81%, followed by Ontario 75% and Alberta 74%, Saskatchewan/Manitoba 69% and Québec 65%; men 77% and women 69%, older 77%.

* Disagree 27% -- [strongly 4%/somewhat 23%] -- most likely from Québec 35%, followed by Saskatchewan/Manitoba 31%, Alberta 26% and Ontario 25%, British Columbia 19% and Atlantic Canada 18%; women 31% and Man 23%, younger 30% and middle-age 28%.

Question: Regardless of whether I agree or disagree with the political decision to send our troops to Afghanistan, I support our Canadian troops in the job that they are doing

* Agree 88% -- [strongly 58%/somewhat 30%] -- most likely from Alberta 95% and Atlantic Canada 95%, followed by Ontario 89%, British Columbia 86% and Saskatchewan/Manitoba and Québec 85%; men 89% and women 88%, older 92%.

* Disagree 12% -- [strongly 5%/somewhat 7%] -- most likely from Québec and Saskatchewan/Manitoba 15%, followed by British Columbia 14%, Ontario 11% and Atlantic Canada and Alberta 5%; women 12% and men 11%, younger 15%.

Question: Our armed forces are doing a good job in Afghanistan

* Agree 86% -- [strongly 40%/somewhat 46%] -- most likely from Alberta 93%, followed by Atlantic Canada 80%, Québec 86% and British Columbia/Saskatchewan/Manitoba/Ontario 84%; women 87% and men 84%, older 92%.

* Disagree 14% -- [strongly 4%/somewhat 10%] -- most likely from Ontario/Saskatchewan/Manitoba/British Columbia 16%, followed by Québec 14% and Alberta 7%; men 16% and women 13%, younger 21%.

Question: Canada should pull its military out of Afghanistan as soon as possible and abandon this mission

* Agree 49% -- [strongly 22%/somewhat 27%] -- most likely from Québec 60%, followed by Atlantic Canada 55%, Ontario 45%, British Columbia and Saskatchewan/Manitoba 44%, and Alberta [35%; women 61% and men 36%, no age difference.

* Disagree 51% -- [strongly 24%/somewhat 27%] -- most likely from Alberta 65% followed by British Columbia and Saskatchewan/Manitoba 56%, Ontario 55%, Atlantic Canada 45% and Québec 40%; men 64% and women 39%, no age difference.

Question: If NATO allied forces don't send more international troops, the Canadian military should stick it out until it's tour of duty ends in 2009 as Afghanistan is too important to abandon

* Agree 53% -- [strongly 17%/somewhat 36%] -- mostly from Alberta 62%, followed by British Columbia/Saskatchewan Manitoba 56% and Ontario 55%, Atlantic Canada 49% and Québec 46%; men 62% and women 45%, older 59%.

* Disagree 47% -- [strongly 17%/somewhat 31%] -- mostly from Québec 54%, followed by Atlantic Canada 51%, Ontario 45% and British Columbia/Saskatchewan/Manitoba 44% and Alberta 38%; women 55% and men 30%, younger and a middle age 50%.

Question: Canada should commit to only having a peacekeeping military, not combat ready military

* Agree 58% -- [strongly 33%/somewhat 26%] -- most likely from Québec 71%, followed by British Columbia and Saskatchewan/Manitoba 56%, Ontario 54%, Atlantic Canada 53% and Alberta 42%; women 70% and men 46%, no age difference.

* Disagree 42% -- [strongly 19%/somewhat 22%] -- most likely from Alberta 58%, followed by Atlantic Canada 47% and Ontario 46%, Saskatchewan/Manitoba and British Columbia 44% and Québec 29%; men 54% and women 30%, no age difference.

For more information on this press release, please contact:
John Wright
Sr. Vice President
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900

 
A post at The Torch:

The Canadian Forces:Deux nations
http://toyoufromfailinghands.blogspot.com/2007/02/canadian-forces-deux-nations.html

Mark
Ottawa
 
MOD SQUAD:  I know it's more than 100 days, but the posting is still pretty relevant to the thread, and can serve to grow the pool of polling knowledge.  Feel free to break away if you see fit.

Full Results:  Canadians:  Afghan Mission Difficult but Enhances Canada's Standing in the World, Nik Nanos, SES Research, Policy Options, June 2007. (.pdf)



Canadians doubt success of Afghan mission
Poll: One-quarter believe in high chance of success

CanWest News Service, 6 Jun 07
Article Link

Whether they are for or against Canada's military mission in Afghanistan, Canadians are highly skeptical about its chances for success, a new poll shows.

"Canadians believe the mission in Afghanistan enhances our reputation in the world, but also believe it is a difficult and complex mission and are highly doubtful about the chances for success," said Nik Nanos, president of SES Research.

In a national survey conducted for Policy Options magazine, the company found that only about one in four Canadians believes that either the military mission or the efforts to promote the rule of law and human rights in the troubled Asian country have a strong probability of success. The sentiments were shared across the board, regardless of whether respondents felt Canada should be in Afghanistan at all.

"What I found interesting is that even among committed Conservative supporters, or the group that support the mission the most, only 26 per cent think there is a high chance of success," Nanos noted.

The poll found that close to half of Canadians believe the mission is enhancing Canada's reputation on the world stage, while one-quarter either believe it has had no impact or is diminishing the country's reputation.

In general, however, the humanitarian aspects of the mission enjoyed more support than the security efforts, with 38 per cent of respondents saying efforts to promote the rule of law and human rights were the most important reason for Canadian engagement in Afghanistan. About one-third felt rebuilding security and stability were the most compelling justifications, while one in five favoured initiatives that support economic and social development.

"This may well have to do with Canadians' enduring self-perception of our country as a nation of peacekeepers, even though we are not really in that business anymore," said Nanos.

The poll was conducted  April 26 to May 1, after six Canadian soldiers died when a roadside bomb blew up their vehicle in the dangerous Kandahar province of southern Afghanistan. The results carry a margin of error of 3.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

Nanos said the poll should inform the government as it reflects on the criteria for gauging the mission's success.

"I wouldn't look at these numbers and think the government should be pulling out of Afghanistan or not. But what it does show is that maybe the government has set the bar so high in regards to success, in regards to creating stability, fostering democracy, building an economy ...that Canadians are looking at those things and saying these objectives are going to be pretty tough to achieve," said Nanos.

The pollster concluded that somewhat "more realistic" goals could make the mission more acceptable to Canadians.

"The reality is this is a very grey issue. We found that among people who oppose or support the mission, there are the same concerns about whether we are giving our men and women in Afghanistan the resources they need to succeed." said Nanos ....


 
Two thoughts:


-I wonder what the Taleban and friends make of these results, and how they intend to influence them;  and

-I'm really struck by the outstanding difference in Quebec results. I guess I shouldn't be, because I'm familiarr with the mantra that Quebec is the province that least supports the military, but to see the cold numbers is quite something. It makes me wonder how much community support our brothers and sisters in 5ieme GBC are getting, and whether or not this public unhappiness offers a juicy info ops target for the baddies?

Cheers
 
pbi said:
It makes me wonder how much community support our brothers and sisters in 5ieme GBC are getting, and whether or not this public unhappiness offers a juicy info ops target for the baddies?

Well, it seems at least ONE group of (what some would consider baddies) appears to be taking advantage:

The War on War! Coalition - Valcartier 2007 invites you to come out on June 22nd for a demonstration to denounce Canadian military involvement in Afghanistan and the deployment of additional troops to Kandahar.
 
milnewstbay said:
In a national survey conducted for Policy Options magazine, the company found that only about one in four Canadians believes that either the military mission or the efforts to promote the rule of law and human rights in the troubled Asian country have a strong probability of success. The sentiments were shared across the board, regardless of whether respondents felt Canada should be in Afghanistan at all.

Gee, once again stats are skewed to flog a negative article.  What a bunch of crap.  Look at the numbers.  Sure, 24% of people Canada wide when asked "DOES CANADA HAVE A HIGH, AVERAGE OR LOW LIKELYHOOD OF SUCCESS IN PROMOTING THE RULE OF LAW AND HUMAN RIGHTS?" indicated a high likelyhood.  But they skip the whole "average" statistic, which is 40.4% Canada wide.  So why not say "64.4% of Canadians have an average to high expectation..." You get the point. 
So to write a whole article based on such a selective interpretation of data is bad journalism at best, and biased political shilling at worst. 
 
pbi said:
Two thoughts:


-I wonder what the Taleban and friends make of these results, and how they intend to influence them;  and

-I'm really struck by the outstanding difference in Quebec results. I guess I shouldn't be, because I'm familiarr with the mantra that Quebec is the province that least supports the military, but to see the cold numbers is quite something. It makes me wonder how much community support our brothers and sisters in 5ieme GBC are getting, and whether or not this public unhappiness offers a juicy info ops target for the baddies?

Cheers

5 GBMC is doing quite well thank you very much.
What the press says and what real support we get from the people are two entirely different things.
 
geo said:
5 GBMC is doing quite well thank you very much.
What the press says and what real support we get from the people are two entirely different things.

Par for the course.
 
The latest - as of posting, Decima hasn't seen fit to share the details on its web page yet (will share if/when available).  Shared with the usual disclaimer.

Big majority wants Afghan mission to end on schedule in 2009: poll
Bruce Cheadle, Canadian Press, 10 Jun 07
Article link

OTTAWA (CP) - The vast majority of Canadians want this country's military mission in Afghanistan to end as scheduled in 2009, according to a new poll.

The survey by Decima Research, released Monday to The Canadian Press, found that two-thirds of respondents want Canadian troops to come home when the current mandate from Parliament expires in February 2009.

Only 26 per cent of respondents believed the military mission should be extended "if that is necessary to complete our goals there."

The results of the poll, conducted May 31 to June 4, were released as Prime Minister Stephen Harper discussed an extension to the mission with his Dutch counterpart in Ottawa.

Harper has repeatedly hinted that Canadian troops may have to stay on in Afghanistan's troubled southern provinces beyond February 2009 in order to ensure stability.

"You know that we can't set arbitrary deadlines and simply wish for the best," he said last month during a visit with the troops in Kandahar.

Jan Peter Balkenende, prime minister of the Netherlands, faces a similar debate, with Dutch troops mandated to work alongside the Canadians only until August 2008.

After meeting with Harper, Balkenende told a news conference on Parliament Hill that he will inform NATO by this August what his country intends to do.

"We will of course consult closely with Canada on this," said the Dutch prime minister. "That was one of the reasons for my visit today."

Neither Balkenende nor Harper tipped his hand on an extension, but Harper said the two leaders discussed the matter at length and share "similar considerations, a similar evaluation of the situation, similar concerns."

"I obviously will not pressure the prime minister in public," said Harper. "But just to say that we have valued tremendously the co-operation with the Netherlands in southern Afghanistan."

Harper's hints appear to run counter to a Canadian sentiment that Decima CEO Bruce Anderson said runs strongly across every region, both genders, all age and income groups and among both urban and rural residents.

"Even Conservative party voters are at best split," said the pollster, noting self-identified Conservative supporters in the survey were divided 48-47 in favour of extending the mission.

That's not to say Canadians feel the mission is a wasted effort.

In the telephone survey of more than 1,000 respondents, Decima asked whether "sufficient progress" is being made in three separate areas that are frequently used to defend the military mission.

A healthy plurality of respondents felt the mission was helping to rebuild Afghanistan for its people and fostering democracy. But respondents were more skeptical about the mission's goal of reducing the threat of global terrorism, with more people saying there's been insufficient progress than sufficient progress.

Anderson noted that not one of the three rationales received more than 50 per cent support as making sufficient progress.

"In each case we found that there wasn't really an overwhelming consensus," said the pollster.

"Given the size of the commitment, given the number of casualties that Canadians have experienced, this represents a problem, obviously."

One diplomat and 56 Canadian soldiers have died in Afghanistan, and the mission has cost the country billions of dollars. Respondents in the Decima survey were twice as likely (62-29) to say the number of casualties is unacceptably high.

Conservative voters, said Anderson, were the only subgroup in the poll in which a majority, 52 per cent, felt the number of casualties has been acceptable.

Yet Anderson says the broad sentiment does not appear to be for an immediate military withdrawal, and Canadian reticence about an extension could change as the deadline approaches and the consequences of leaving become clearer.

The Dutch people face that decision this summer, but Canadians can delay it for several more months.

"Right now that deadline seems like it's some distance off into the future," said Anderson.

"What people are really saying, I think, through this poll is we're uncomfortable with a completely open-ended commitment."

The poll's national results are considered accurate to within plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

 
Geo, I am glad to hear that those in Quebec are getting good support.  You only hear the negative in the press (of course) so thank you for sharing that info.  In fact Paul and I will be travelling next week for a BBQ and a visit with the medics deploying shortly so I look forward to seeing everyone and showing our support as well.

Here is where I have a problem.  Did my husband, and 5 others (that we know of to date) lose body parts in Afghanistan to help people who want help for nothing?  Did we lose 57 soldiers doing the same thing for nothing?

I think the general public still doesn't understand what is really going on.  That we are doing a great job, but to cut and run in 09 is a terrible idea.  All that hard work, sacrifice and stress to see all if it go away.  That just makes me so mad.  What else can we do to help others really understand?  More education, yes.  Any other ideas?
 
A healthy plurality of respondents felt the mission was helping to rebuild Afghanistan for its people and fostering democracy. But respondents were more skeptical about the mission's goal of reducing the threat of global terrorism, with more people saying there's been insufficient progress than sufficient progress.

I hate polls - for the simple reason that a question is posed that respondents
are unlikely to have the information to answer rationally.
The questions, whatever they are measure how the media is doing about as well as the military.  And really none of that could be considered meaningful.

I think the general public still doesn't understand what is really going on.  That we are doing a great job, but to cut and run in 09 is a terrible idea.  All that hard work, sacrifice and stress to see all if it go away.  That just makes me so mad.  What else can we do to help others really understand?  More education, yes.  Any other ideas?

simysmom99
Double Ditto!

I'm a civvie and I never thought for a moment that it would all be a waste.
Thanks to your husband and you for your service!

I agree with you - It's a problem.
The media in the liberal west try to run things.
They grab for the steering wheel with no idea where we're going.

If someone stands up and offers this country leadership - pour on the static!

Write a book?
Submit to the editorial page?
Get interviewed?
Confront the nonsense that is written directly.










 
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