- Reaction score
- 2,534
- Points
- 1,260
Finally found a copy of some more detailed figures on the latest Leger Marketing polling (attached as PDF) - here's a link to the entire survey, which includes how different parties are faring.
Canadian Public Opinion Polls on Afghanistan
- Thread starter Edward Campbell
- Start date
I think most people misunderstand what we're actually doing there.
I *think* most (Canadian) people feel that we're fighting a useless war. We aren't the ones who were attacked so why should we be involved. What does this have to do with us?
I feel as though the Canadian spirit has died.
Weren't our nation's founding moments during the first and second world wars?
When we heard un-justice was being done, we didn't cry about it. We grabbed our guns, our boots and our courage and we stormed out the door. We didn't care that it had little to no effect on us. Over a million of us stormed out to help.
While the stakes are obviously lower today, the idea is the same.
Someone needs our help, so let's help them.
First we were helping our American brothers and now we're trying to "free" the Afghani people and bring them up to date on civilization.
I think people have forgotten what it is exactly we're fighting for.
Who cares what the politicians want the war for (oil in Afghanistan..what?), you should be able to see the past it and see the good that can come from it.
There are two ways to help someone being oppressed.
You can either help them by tending to their wounds (mental or physical) or you can take care of the oppressor. If you're smart, you'll do both.
Canadians want us to do the tending (help and rebuild) and no killing.
I think concerning the people [insurgents] we are dealing with, that is impossible.
/end childish and overly patriotic rant
I *think* most (Canadian) people feel that we're fighting a useless war. We aren't the ones who were attacked so why should we be involved. What does this have to do with us?
I feel as though the Canadian spirit has died.
Weren't our nation's founding moments during the first and second world wars?
When we heard un-justice was being done, we didn't cry about it. We grabbed our guns, our boots and our courage and we stormed out the door. We didn't care that it had little to no effect on us. Over a million of us stormed out to help.
While the stakes are obviously lower today, the idea is the same.
Someone needs our help, so let's help them.
First we were helping our American brothers and now we're trying to "free" the Afghani people and bring them up to date on civilization.
I think people have forgotten what it is exactly we're fighting for.
Who cares what the politicians want the war for (oil in Afghanistan..what?), you should be able to see the past it and see the good that can come from it.
There are two ways to help someone being oppressed.
You can either help them by tending to their wounds (mental or physical) or you can take care of the oppressor. If you're smart, you'll do both.
Canadians want us to do the tending (help and rebuild) and no killing.
I think concerning the people [insurgents] we are dealing with, that is impossible.
/end childish and overly patriotic rant
- Reaction score
- 2,534
- Points
- 1,260
- Reaction score
- 2,534
- Points
- 1,260
From Harris-Decima (PDF of news release), for the Canadian Press - highlights:
More from the Canadian Press here.
OldSolduer
Army.ca Relic
- Reaction score
- 12,475
- Points
- 1,140
When I read these, I wonder....well have several questions;
Where are these polls conducted?
Who conducts them? Not just a corporate name, but a name.
How is the question asked?
Who pays for these polls?
Finally, where have our values gone? Why is it "unfashionable" to do the RIGHT thing?
Too many years of Trudeau, Liberal and NDP hogwash.
Where are these polls conducted?
Who conducts them? Not just a corporate name, but a name.
How is the question asked?
Who pays for these polls?
Finally, where have our values gone? Why is it "unfashionable" to do the RIGHT thing?
Too many years of Trudeau, Liberal and NDP hogwash.
- Reaction score
- 4,318
- Points
- 1,160
I know there is great mistrust of polling here on Army.ca.
I believe (and it is a well informed belief) that mistrust is ill founded.
The major polling firms in Canada are successful because they consistently provide a demonstrably fair and accurate assessment of what the public thinks about issues.
Almost all polling is privately commissioned – often by news media for later public release, as a service to gain/retain the loyalty of subscribers/readers/viewers/listeners. Sometimes firms conduct polls on issues of national import as their own public service – again with the aim of enhancing their reputation. Most polling work is wholly commercial in nature - designed to help marketing managers make smart decisions.
The very, very worst thing a polling for could do would be to conduct a poll, even when privately commissioned, that was aimed at a predetermined outcome. I have had some contact with poling forms over the years, in my second career and after that as a student, and I am here to say that the big firms do not situate the appreciation by any of the various techniques suspected by many, many Arm,y.ca members. The owners and managers of these firms are well paid; they live the good life; because they produce a consistently reliable product. They would fail, they would lose their jobs and income andcottages mansions in the Muskokas, if they did what so many think they do. They don't do what so many accuse them of doing because they are not stupid people.
Polling data is more accurate at gross levels – when you poll 3,000 people across Canada you get an accuracy rating of about ±2.5% 19 times out of 20. But your poll of Ontario probably had only 1,250 respondents so its accuracy is lower – maybe about ±3.5% and so on down to PEI where, with only 150 respondents the accuracy is laughable. (I’m emphasizing ‘maybe’ and ‘about’ because I’m too lazy to go look up the real numbers but someone who took a Stats course in the last few years ought to have those numbers near at hand.) Polls, even large ones, are rarely more than about 95% accurate – but, given the relatively small samples, necessary to provide timely data, that’s a fair result.
You don’t have to like the poll results but you should be fairly confident that they are giving you an accurate reflection of public opinion. The polls should always contain details of the questions, methodology and sample size – and almost all polling firms almost always publish that data. The media are often less willing or able to devote column inches or TV time to telling you all about the poll. When you read a poll in the media you should always go to the polling firm's website where you will, 99% of the time, find the data you need to assess what was asked and how it was asked.
I believe (and it is a well informed belief) that mistrust is ill founded.
The major polling firms in Canada are successful because they consistently provide a demonstrably fair and accurate assessment of what the public thinks about issues.
Almost all polling is privately commissioned – often by news media for later public release, as a service to gain/retain the loyalty of subscribers/readers/viewers/listeners. Sometimes firms conduct polls on issues of national import as their own public service – again with the aim of enhancing their reputation. Most polling work is wholly commercial in nature - designed to help marketing managers make smart decisions.
The very, very worst thing a polling for could do would be to conduct a poll, even when privately commissioned, that was aimed at a predetermined outcome. I have had some contact with poling forms over the years, in my second career and after that as a student, and I am here to say that the big firms do not situate the appreciation by any of the various techniques suspected by many, many Arm,y.ca members. The owners and managers of these firms are well paid; they live the good life; because they produce a consistently reliable product. They would fail, they would lose their jobs and income and
Polling data is more accurate at gross levels – when you poll 3,000 people across Canada you get an accuracy rating of about ±2.5% 19 times out of 20. But your poll of Ontario probably had only 1,250 respondents so its accuracy is lower – maybe about ±3.5% and so on down to PEI where, with only 150 respondents the accuracy is laughable. (I’m emphasizing ‘maybe’ and ‘about’ because I’m too lazy to go look up the real numbers but someone who took a Stats course in the last few years ought to have those numbers near at hand.) Polls, even large ones, are rarely more than about 95% accurate – but, given the relatively small samples, necessary to provide timely data, that’s a fair result.
You don’t have to like the poll results but you should be fairly confident that they are giving you an accurate reflection of public opinion. The polls should always contain details of the questions, methodology and sample size – and almost all polling firms almost always publish that data. The media are often less willing or able to devote column inches or TV time to telling you all about the poll. When you read a poll in the media you should always go to the polling firm's website where you will, 99% of the time, find the data you need to assess what was asked and how it was asked.
- Reaction score
- 2,534
- Points
- 1,260
To (humbly) add to E.R.'s overview....
- Do you strongly support, support, oppose, or strongly oppose the government’s commitment to have troops in Afghanistan?
- Do you believe Canada should remove its troops early from Afghanistan, stay until the current end
date of 2011, or extend their mission in Afghanistan
- This past week, the Prime Minister announced that Canada would end its military mission in Afghanistan in 2011, and replace it with a civilian mission. Would you say you strongly support, support, oppose or strongly oppose Canada taking this approach?
Also keep in mind that whoever pays for the poll has some input into the questions - based on VERY limited experience, there's a back-and-forth between the client, who says "here's the kind of stuff I want to canvass/find out about", and the polling company, who responds, "well, here's some wording that could draw that information."
I wish I had better answers for you, my friend....
In this case, by phone: "Each week, Harris/Decima interviews just over 1000 Canadians through teleVox, the company’s national telephone omnibus survey."OldSoldier said:
I'm guessing that one person doesn't do more than 1000 calls to get the approximately 1,000 responses needed - either staff members of the polling firm, or staff at a call centre such firms may hire, make the calls.OldSoldier said:
Based on my experience, pretty uniformly and monotonously, exactly as worded in the news release:OldSoldier said:
- Do you strongly support, support, oppose, or strongly oppose the government’s commitment to have troops in Afghanistan?
- Do you believe Canada should remove its troops early from Afghanistan, stay until the current end
date of 2011, or extend their mission in Afghanistan
- This past week, the Prime Minister announced that Canada would end its military mission in Afghanistan in 2011, and replace it with a civilian mission. Would you say you strongly support, support, oppose or strongly oppose Canada taking this approach?
Also keep in mind that whoever pays for the poll has some input into the questions - based on VERY limited experience, there's a back-and-forth between the client, who says "here's the kind of stuff I want to canvass/find out about", and the polling company, who responds, "well, here's some wording that could draw that information."
In this case, it appears Canadian Press paid for the company to have the poll done - that's why CP gets to run the story. Other media outlets use different companies the same way.OldSoldier said:
Sadly, right doesn't always equal popular.OldSoldier said:
I wish I had better answers for you, my friend....
To add to this, ALL media stories should include at least how many people were surveyed and the plus/minus factor for accuracy - if a poll shows, say 52 and 49 per cent results for opposing positions, and the margin of error happens to be +/- 4%, that means any difference would have to be more than 4 % to be reasonably significant. Plain language - you can't say "a slim majority support X with 52%" in the situation I gave because the difference is less than 4 points. It would be more correct to say "opinion is split between X and Y".E.R. Campbell said:
- Reaction score
- 0
- Points
- 410
E.R. Campbell said:
I don't "suspect" misconduct (if that is what situate the appreciation actually means
). I KNOW that when I got called by Ipsos-Reid polling me on my opinion of the mission when I told them I strongly supported the mission (the second question after "Are you aware that Canada has soldiers in Afghanistan") I was promptly hung up on. The subsequent poll that came out had significantly more questions associated to it. As there are several other people who all report the same occurrence, my faith in the polls is low. I would also respectfully submit that someone who enjoys a quality lifestyle is not immune from political influence and greed. I should think that is fairly clear from what we consistently see in the news.
However, I still feel that if Canadians do not support the mission, it is largely due to the fact that the Army (I blame the Army) has failed to do a credible job of reporting our successes. It would seem that it is almost too scary to admit that we have transitioned from fighting radical Islamic militants (which we are, but argueably it is just pissing in the wind) to nation building. I would like to think that the Canadian public would still support the mission if its main purpose was more humanitarian in nature and was moving towards simply helping Joe and Jane Afghan get better lives.
Jungle
Army.ca Veteran
- Reaction score
- 12
- Points
- 430
zipperhead_cop said:I don't "suspect" misconduct (if that is what situate the appreciation actually means
While it never happened to me, I know at least one individual who had the same thing happen to him; when he stated that he "strongly supported" the misssion, the pollster hung up...
- Reaction score
- 0
- Points
- 210
I worked for Ipsos-Reid. Their call floor is in downtown Winnipeg. The way the polls work is this. They ask you about your support for the Government's commitment to having the troops in Afghanistan: "a. strongly support, b. support, c. oppose, or d. strongly oppose". If they punch in an "a" or "b" answer, it automatically brings up "Those are all my questions. On behalf of Ipsos Reid and myself, I would like to thank you for participating in our poll today. Have a good evening. Good-bye." If they punch in a "c" or "d", the next question about the troops in Afghanistan, or the Government pops up, and the survey continues damning the Government, the Troops, or both. Been there, done that - night, after night, after night. The kids (mostly age 16 to 20) will keep calling on this till they get a good number of negative responses, usually a pre-determined amount. Thankfully, I wasn't there long, but long enough to realize what a scam public opinion polling is.
- Reaction score
- 25
- Points
- 430
It is called a "Vocal Minority".
- Reaction score
- 4,318
- Points
- 1,160
Hawk said:
And that would be just the sort of poll you would conduct is the question was "Who is to 'blame' for this mess?" There are two polls in one:
First: who "a. strongly supports, b. supports, c. opposes, or d. strongly opposes" the mission; and
Second: who is to 'blame?'
There is no point in asking those who strongly support or support the mission who is to blame. It would be a silly question. Those who support the mission do not 'blame' anyone.
- Reaction score
- 0
- Points
- 410
Sure, but you can still take snapshots of stats that can skew the results. If the answers were screened out like you say, then you will have nobody that strongly supports the mission. After the poll is done then you have all of the stats for the individual questions. Whoever is paying for the poll gets all of the results, and then they can trot out "authentic" stats that show that Canadians don't support the mission "Just look at the numbers! We polled X thousand people with a 2% degree of accuracy". But the numbers are still bunk.
- Reaction score
- 0
- Points
- 210
Here's a December 3, 2009 poll by Angus Reid that's based on polling 1006 Canadians from all parts of the country. It's important to critically analyze a pollsters methodology but I also think the good ones make no attempt to bias the results-IMHO! This polls sample size of respondents is small, so according to Mr. Campbell, it's more prone to inaccuracy? The poll claims support for the mission is actually "up five points since October." (Disclaimer: stats are not my strong point.)
http://www.visioncritical.com/2009/12/canadians-reject-sending-more-soldiers-to-afghanistan/
As the U.S. and Britain get ready to send more troops to Afghanistan, two-thirds of Canadians believe that their own country’s military commitment should not be altered, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found. In the online survey of a representative national sample of 1,006 Canadian adults, 66 per cent of respondents express opposition to Canada committing more soldiers to the war in Afghanistan, while only 28 per cent would consent to this idea.
The Mission
This month, 42 per cent of respondents (up five points since October) say they support the military operation involving Canadian soldiers in Afghanistan, while 53 per cent are opposed (down three points).
Support for the military mission is highest in Alberta (66%) and lowest in Quebec (32%).
Canadians are evenly divided on whether the country was right to send military forces to Afghanistan, with 40 per cent believing this was the correct decision, and 40 per cent claiming this was a mistake. Overall, three-in-five Canadians (61%) say they have a clear idea of what the war in Afghanistan is about.
When The War is Over
When asked about what they think will be the most likely outcome of the war in Afghanistan, seven per cent of Canadians expect a clear victory by U.S. and NATO forces over the Taliban, and 32 per cent foresee a negotiated settlement from a position of U.S. and NATO strength that gives the Taliban a small role in the Afghan government.
In addition, 16 per cent of respondents believe the Taliban will play a significant role in Afghanistan after the war is over, and a further 16 per cent believe U.S. and NATO forces will ultimately be defeated by the Taliban.
Obama’s Plan
Canadians are skeptical about the plan for Afghanistan outlined by U.S. President Barack Obama. Just over a third of respondents (37%) are very or moderately confident that the Obama Administration will be able “finish the job” in Afghanistan, while a majority (54%) are not too confident or not confident at all.
Analysis
While Canada was not mentioned as a possible source of additional soldiers, the population flatly rejects the possibility of an increase in the number of Canadian troops in Afghanistan. Following a month filled with intense discussions about Canada’s role, support for the mission actually increased by five points.
At this stage, Canadians are not entirely satisfied with the situation in Afghanistan, but would definitely be against any attempts to change course in the next two years. It is important to note that, despite his popularity in Canada, Obama’s plan for Afghanistan is not regarded as an ideal solution to the conflict.
Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)
CONTACT:
Jodi Shanoff, Vice President, Public Affairs
http://www.visioncritical.com/2009/12/canadians-reject-sending-more-soldiers-to-afghanistan/
As the U.S. and Britain get ready to send more troops to Afghanistan, two-thirds of Canadians believe that their own country’s military commitment should not be altered, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found. In the online survey of a representative national sample of 1,006 Canadian adults, 66 per cent of respondents express opposition to Canada committing more soldiers to the war in Afghanistan, while only 28 per cent would consent to this idea.
The Mission
This month, 42 per cent of respondents (up five points since October) say they support the military operation involving Canadian soldiers in Afghanistan, while 53 per cent are opposed (down three points).
Support for the military mission is highest in Alberta (66%) and lowest in Quebec (32%).
Canadians are evenly divided on whether the country was right to send military forces to Afghanistan, with 40 per cent believing this was the correct decision, and 40 per cent claiming this was a mistake. Overall, three-in-five Canadians (61%) say they have a clear idea of what the war in Afghanistan is about.
When The War is Over
When asked about what they think will be the most likely outcome of the war in Afghanistan, seven per cent of Canadians expect a clear victory by U.S. and NATO forces over the Taliban, and 32 per cent foresee a negotiated settlement from a position of U.S. and NATO strength that gives the Taliban a small role in the Afghan government.
In addition, 16 per cent of respondents believe the Taliban will play a significant role in Afghanistan after the war is over, and a further 16 per cent believe U.S. and NATO forces will ultimately be defeated by the Taliban.
Obama’s Plan
Canadians are skeptical about the plan for Afghanistan outlined by U.S. President Barack Obama. Just over a third of respondents (37%) are very or moderately confident that the Obama Administration will be able “finish the job” in Afghanistan, while a majority (54%) are not too confident or not confident at all.
Analysis
While Canada was not mentioned as a possible source of additional soldiers, the population flatly rejects the possibility of an increase in the number of Canadian troops in Afghanistan. Following a month filled with intense discussions about Canada’s role, support for the mission actually increased by five points.
At this stage, Canadians are not entirely satisfied with the situation in Afghanistan, but would definitely be against any attempts to change course in the next two years. It is important to note that, despite his popularity in Canada, Obama’s plan for Afghanistan is not regarded as an ideal solution to the conflict.
Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)
CONTACT:
Jodi Shanoff, Vice President, Public Affairs
- Reaction score
- 2,534
- Points
- 1,260
Canadians Divided on Afghanistan Mission
Angus Reid Global Monitor, 24 Feb 10
News release link - Complete Survey also attached
Angus Reid Global Monitor, 24 Feb 10
News release link - Complete Survey also attached
OldSolduer
Army.ca Relic
- Reaction score
- 12,475
- Points
- 1,140
47% in favor, 49% against?
A dead heat, media wise.
I agree with the 53%, the government hasn't done a good job on the info side.
A dead heat, media wise.
I agree with the 53%, the government hasn't done a good job on the info side.
- Reaction score
- 2,389
- Points
- 940
Yes, but it also says that, "Since October 2009, the level of support for the mission has increased by 10 points," which is why this poll isn't a sensationalist headline in the Red Toronto Star
- Reaction score
- 2,534
- Points
- 1,260
8 Apr 10, Ekos:
21 Apr 10 Angus Reid (pet peeve highlight mine):
Both reports attached.
21 Apr 10 Angus Reid (pet peeve highlight mine):
Both reports attached.
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