The fear card has been dealt -- and Harper will play it
LAWRENCE MARTIN
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The uncovering of the alleged terrorist plot is a hair-raising alert for Canadians that will create new stresses in our multicultural fabric and ratchet up support for the law-and-order conservatism of Stephen Harper.
There will be less regard for civil rights, more regard for excessive security, and quite possibly, a hardening of the appetite for the war in Afghanistan.
Events like this make it easy for political leaders to mobilize citizen anxiety. Mr. Harper has been handed a golden gift for a politician of the right -- the fear card. He is very likely to play it.
The liberally inclined were reluctant to believe we were high on the list of terror targets. That reluctance is now removed. The country of soft hearts will tilt in harder directions.
In our foreign policy, a shift had been under way since the Conservatives came to power. Ammonium nitrate will hasten the change and could very well seal the new deal. Before Mr. Harper's arrival, owing chiefly to our position on the Iraq war, we were situated in the moderate middle, playing our traditional, honest-broker, multilateral role. We were separated from the hard-line lean of the Anglo axis -- the United States, Britain and Australia. Because the war had gone so badly, it was an honourable separation. And because the Bush administration had become so widely discredited, all the more so.
But no longer. Mr. Harper never viewed our position as being quite so admirable. He wants full membership in the axis of Anglos -- and will likely get it.
Judging from his pronouncements when the Iraq war began, it is clear he favoured our participation. Public opinion subsequently curbed some of his hawkishness and during the election campaign, he came off as mellow-minded, steering well adrift of Bushian inclinations.
In power, he's felt free enough to brandish some of his ideology. He brought the Afghan war to the forefront, while leaving Darfur and Haiti to the side. He took the hard line on Hamas and the Tamil Tigers and junked Kyoto. He, wisely, gave a big budget boost to the RCMP and took other anti-crime measures. He brought Australian Prime Minister John Howard to Ottawa and his Tories cheered the Aussie mightily when he gave a full-scale endorsement of the ways of the U.S.
Having come this far, the Prime Minister can now go farther. Public support in this country for the war on terror will likely rise, giving him enough leeway to put himself firmly in league with the tough guys.
We've heard his "cut and run" jargon. Now there will be additions. Lines like, "Our freedoms are at risk" and "Our very way of life is under threat." They will be the rallying cries any time the government wants more support for policing, for security, for wars.
The beauty of it politically is that no one will be able to say with certainty that Mr. Harper is wrong because no one can predict with certainty that there won't be an attack. There have been no terror outbreaks in the U.S. since 9/11 but it hasn't stopped Mr. Bush from playing the fear card regularly and with good effect.
From Afghanistan, the news for Mr. Harper has been worrisome. Evidence accumulates to the effect that the war may well be unwinnable, at least in terms of dispelling the Taliban. But there will be little appetite for any rethink now, not with terror at our own door.
It's not only the Conservatives who will benefit from the news of the weekend but to look to the Liberals is to see that the leading candidate in the leadership race is the more militant Michael Ignatieff. His stock stood to go down as did Mr. Harper's if the Afghanistan adventure turned ugly.
But ammonium nitrate in our midst is balm for him as well. Its discovery, thanks to the great work of the RCMP and CSIS, was good news. But the portents that come with it -- do we really want charter membership in the Anglo club? -- give pause.
When the fear card is dealt to those in power, the chances of overreaction appreciably augment. The tragic Iraq adventure is but one example. How many new terrorists have been spawned as a result of the deaths of thousands of innocents there can only be guessed.
That's what can happen when the card is in play. The cure can become worse than the disease itself.
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