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CDN/US Covid-related political discussion

There is a lot of funny back and forth on here based on incomplete information and misconceptions. Some folks should slow down a bit as you're just jamming the means.

1. The concept of a "getting in line for vaccines" can be unhelpful, the reality is that different countries have different contracts with pharmaceutical companies. These contracts stipulate things like guaranteed delivery schedules. These contracts are close hold, but one could extrapolate that countries that are quicker to sign vaccine procurement contracts and/or agree to pay a premium will get a better contract with preferential access to limited supply. Case in point is the secret to Israel's lack of supply issues.


2. I'm always suspicious of comparisons with other countries. Israel was held up as the exemplar, but Israel is smaller than most of our provinces, has a unitary state (which means no federal/provincial coordination requirements), only requires one central warehouse, and has a road network that enables a vaccine arriving in country to be moved anywhere in a few hours. Compare this to some of the challenges faced in Canada. Context is important.

3. Despite the kink in supply in February, the rate of supply and vaccination has been increasing significantly across the country. The target date in July wasn't briefed off a hunch or a wing and a prayer. Based on the continuous increase of supply and the rates of vaccination across the country (provinces are moving through 10-year age cohorts roughly every 1 to 1.5 weeks), there is no convincing evidence to suggest Canada won't make its stated goal of having a dose for all adult Canadians by July.

4. The rollout of vaccines is accelerated by the decision to delay the second dose. This is not a "trick to look better" or a "mass experiment," but was rather informed by hard data examined in detail by the National Advisory Committee on Immunization (NACI). This is a conscious decision to try and get as many people a very good degree of protection first to reduce the effects of the pandemic. For those who are skeptical, I encourage you to read their recommendations and the evidence behind it.


5. For those who are concerned about Astrazenca's efficacy numbers, remember that some protection is better than none at this point, and consider that many other vaccines we traditionally accept with no issues have lower effectiveness rates.


6. For those worried about clotting, compare the number of people who had problems to the number of people who have received the Astrazeneca vaccine. Compare that percentage with some more common risks that we readily accept and then come back to me. For those pointing to cases of infection after vaccination, remember that ALL vaccines have a certain degree of effectiveness. This means that it won't work for some, as every immune system is different. You shouldn't be surprised that some folks will get vaccinated and still get sick, but you should be comforted by the fact that these vaccines are showing to be very good so far.

7. A lot of people seem to be thinking that various governments are "hiding vaccines in fridges" or "unable to administer doses." Ontario seems to really get accused of this a lot. I'd argue that people making these arguments likely misunderstand how a supply chain works, and that a vaccine that arrives in Canada from overseas isn't readily available to stick in an arm. There is always vaccine "in the system" as it moves through the pipeline. An official from Ontario did a great job of explaining his provinces situation on Twitter which is worth the read:


8. While it is clear that the situation with the pandemic in mid-April is not rosy, largely due to the influx of SARS-Cov-2 variants into the country, we shouldn't mix assessments of "pandemic situation" with "vaccination rollout." Is Canada's rollout perfect? No, of course not, and I'll be interested to see the forensics of the effort once this is all behind us. But let's not lose sight of the forest for the trees. As someone indicated earlier, Canada and the World have benefited from a remarkably quick development of vaccines that DID NOT cut corners and relied on a couple decades of cutting edge mRNA work. The world's S&T base is doing what it needs to do. Canada has a steady supply of good vaccines now, and supply is ramping up. Despite some bumps in the road, Canada appears to be moving from "vaccine may be coming soon" back in November of 2020 to "all Canadians should all be able to get vaccinated by end September" in January of 2021 to "all Canadians should be able to get vaccinated by July." Despite the doom and gloom I read here, and the continued cynicism, when you step back for a bit, the forecast for Canada has improved significantly over the last 6 months after a terrible 2020.

MGen Fortin indicated that we are getting over a million doses a week in Canada. Why don't we all come back at the end of May and see where things are at.
Happy to. You make some good points, but reality has a way of intruding. Til May then.
 
Shifting subject slightly, the new Ontario restrictions are going to significantly raise the temperature in the province... There’s gonna be much broader enforcement of provincial measures, couple with new police powers to essentially stop and question people/vehicles for their reasons to not be home. Anyone trying to enter the provinces for non essential purposes will be turned away at the border. Churches will be limited to ten attendees- that’s what I think will be the biggest flashpoint. Closure of nonessential construction. Significant increase in inspection of places of employment. The stay at home order is extended to mid May.

Provincial and municipal police will be busy.
 
Shifting subject slightly, the new Ontario restrictions are going to significantly raise the temperature in the province... There’s gonna be much broader enforcement of provincial measures, couple with new police powers to essentially stop and question people/vehicles for their reasons to not be home. Anyone trying to enter the provinces for non essential purposes will be turned away at the border. Churches will be limited to ten attendees- that’s what I think will be the biggest flashpoint. Closure of nonessential construction. Significant increase in inspection of places of employment. The stay at home order is extended to mid May.

Provincial and municipal police will be busy.
If I'm driving to work in civilian clothing and I get pulled over the police can simply tell me they don't believe me and give me a $750 ticket. I know there was an instance in Quebec of a nurse who had signed governmental paperwork saying she was an essential worker and got a ticket anyways..

Being able to pull over pretty girls to ask them where they live and where they're going will make police officers like Eric Post happy (no slight to the good officers out there)
 
Police have always been able to pull anyone over at random to verify license, insurance and registration as well as mechanical fitness of the vehicle. Nothing new there. Those inclined to abuse have long had many options to.

Needless to say I hope common sense is applied by all.
 
Watching Peel Police today (siding with anti-mask protesters at a gym who assaulted a member of the media, literally hugging the protesters) I am not sanguine that their newfound powers will be used for good.
 
Ah thanks, I didn't know they could do it on a whim. I thought there had to be some justifiable suspicion of something. Agree hope common sense is applied by all.
 
Watching Peel Police today (siding with anti-mask protesters at a gym who assaulted a member of the media, literally hugging the protesters) I am not sanguine that their newfound powers will be used for good.
That dumbass is already suspended. Only took the chief a couple hours. But yeah, screw that guy.
 
In percentage of single doses? Sure. In percentage of full vaccination? Not a chance. In new COVID cases and struggling ICU capacity? We're leading the charge.

I guess the data is only the data that you want it to be, to confirm the bias you have. Not the real numbers and the real situation. We needed vaccines 2 months ago, not 2 months from now.
So from today’s data (Fri, Apr 16) when one considers full vaccination (ie. per the vaccine’s certification administration regime), Canada hardly has anything to crow about. It ranks 66th in the world, according to Our World In Data - COVID-19 Share of Fully Vaccinated Population (not all countries shown on chart due to graphic limitations of the site)
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And for all the crowing about being #3 in the G20, that only applies to incomplete (1-shot only) vaccination. For complete vaccination, Canada ranks a middle-of-the-pack #10 of 20 (and there wasn’t data for Australia, China or Saudi Arabia...so we could be even lower)

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Some talk about disingenuity and trying to make things look worse. Which is truly worse? That (conservative view of progress), or believing/espousing that things are much better than they are, so that we can continue the great Canadian sport of mutual back-patting? 🤔
 
Shifting subject slightly, the new Ontario restrictions are going to significantly raise the temperature in the province... There’s gonna be much broader enforcement of provincial measures, couple with new police powers to essentially stop and question people/vehicles for their reasons to not be home. Anyone trying to enter the provinces for non essential purposes will be turned away at the border. Churches will be limited to ten attendees- that’s what I think will be the biggest flashpoint. Closure of nonessential construction. Significant increase in inspection of places of employment. The stay at home order is extended to mid May.

Provincial and municipal police will be busy.
My wife dove today, and planned to go again tomorrow and Sunday with her buddies.

She's pretty disappointed, but understands the necessity.

Watching Peel Police today (siding with anti-mask protesters at a gym who assaulted a member of the media, literally hugging the protesters).

Good grief!
 
So from today’s data (Fri, Apr 16) when one considers full vaccination (ie. per the vaccine’s certification administration regime), Canada hardly has anything to crow about. It ranks 66th in the world, according to Our World In Data - COVID-19 Share of Fully Vaccinated Population .

Context is important - in many (or most) cases Canada elected to delay second doses, so there is no need to measure "who has 2 doses" if, as the NACI recommendation I linked to above shows, one dose provides sufficient protection until the delayed dose is administered.

In other words, if we are reading these metrics to determine how many Canadians are protected from the disease, the 1 dose numbers are just fine.
 
Do we know the impact of extended booster periods on efficacy, or was the NACI recommendation based on trading more population partial-coverage against greater resistance?
 
Do we know the impact of extended booster periods on efficacy, or was the NACI recommendation based on trading more population partial-coverage against greater resistance?

I linked the The NACI report above. It's plain for all to see:

  • Morbidity and mortality from COVID-19 is ongoing and vaccine supply is limited. Extending the interval to the second dose allows vaccination of the largest number of people as quickly as possible, providing more people with direct protection and the possibility of indirect and community protection.
  • An extended interval of up to four months allows as many eligible populations as possible to be offered vaccination with one dose before proceeding to offering second doses. However, as soon as all eligible groups have been offered their first dose of vaccine, second doses should be offered. The interval between first and second dose should not be extended any longer than needed to offer first doses of vaccine to all eligible individuals.

  • Current evidence summarized in this document suggests very good vaccine efficacy against symptomatic COVID-19 from one dose of COVID-19 vaccines (92% efficacy for the mRNA vaccines; 76% efficacy for the AstraZeneca vaccine), with good effectiveness shown in observational studies (generally between 60 and 80%, with some lower and higher estimates) against symptomatic disease and/or asymptomatic infection, as well as very good effectiveness against hospitalization (approximately 80%) and death (approximately 85% based on one study from the UK6). While two doses of mRNA vaccines have shown excellent efficacy and effectiveness, one dose of mRNA vaccines appear to perform similarly to one or two doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine and the single-dose Janssen vaccine.
The last section is key - if one dose provides 76 to 92% (vaccine dependent) for sufficient time until the second dose, then you are providing people with protection better than a flu shot. We've essentially doubled our rate of vaccination due to the requirement not to hold back a second dose, understanding that those second doses will be available three to four months down the road.
 
Thanks Infanteer, that gives excellent reasoning for the more one-shot now methodology! What are ways you think that we (Canadians all) could increase the uptake rate of Astra-Zeneca? Drop the age-limit somewhat? Altogether?
 
Do we know the impact of extended booster periods on efficacy, or was the NACI recommendation based on trading more population partial-coverage against greater resistance?

A few snippets from the NACI recommendation:

"Data from the two clinical trials for mRNA vaccines (Pfizer-BioNTechFootnote 1 and ModernaFootnote 2) provide evidence that indicates that efficacy against symptomatic disease begins as early as 12 to 14 days after the first dose. Excluding the first 14 days before vaccines are expected to offer protection, both vaccines showed an efficacy of 92% up until the second doseFootnote 3Footnote 4 (the second dose was generally administered at approximately 21 days after the first dose for the Pfizer-BioNTech product and at approximately 28 days for the Moderna product). From the AstraZeneca clinical trial publication, one dose of the vaccine was found to have 76% efficacy between 22 and 90 days after administrationFootnote 5."

"Informed expert opinion based on principles of immunology indicate that a longer interval between priming and boosting doses of a vaccine series results in a better, more durable responseFootnote 34. The AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine clinical trial demonstrated optimal efficacy when the interval between the first and second doses was ≥12 weeksFootnote 5."

"Modelling demonstrated that longer intervals would have substantial population-level benefits. With anticipated vaccine supplies of mRNA vaccines alone, extending the interval to the second dose would allow over 90% of older adults (50 years of age and over) and 75% of younger adults (16 to 49 years of age) to be vaccinated by the middle of June, 2021, with second doses following afterwards. Compared to shorter intervals between doses, extending the interval between doses results in faster direct protection to substantially more of the population, along with the possibility of more rapid indirect and community protection."

NACI recommendation document found here:
 
So she she's been ignoring the stay at home order for a week and hanging around with friends?
I thought she was within the law. The water knows where to find me. I believe in progress and Canadian plumbing. When I feel the need of water, I take a shower. ;)
 
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