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CDN/US Covid-related political discussion

Mick

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Don't let @PuckChaser trick you.

Pfizer is dumping 9.6 million vaccines on Canada in June alone.

Pfizers numbers by the end of June alone will be 23.3m alone

The adult population of Canada will likely be mostly covered by Pfizer alone by Canada day.

Thanks for clarifying and including the proposed June vaccine deliveries.

I think PuckChaser is not wrong to be sceptical, though, given the sometimes unpredictable delays in delivery. Hopefully the vaccines arrive as scheduled.

I'll reiterate again that we've had our hands tied by a lack of domestic vaccine production capability. Given that reality, I'm not sure what else the Feds can do; vaccine delivery is entirely in the hands of the manufacturers.
 

Weinie

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Okay, lets put it this way.

Canada and Bahrain show up to Pfizer. Canada askes for 3 million a week. Pfizer says they cannot do that manufacture that many, they can give a max of 300k-400k per week. Bahrain asks for 300k a week, Pfizer says they can do that.

Canada complains they are a bigger country than Bahrain, and thus should get more than Bahrain. Pfizer says tough luck.

End result, Canada is at 25 percent, Bahrain is at 100 percent.

What is Canada to do in this situation? Invade Bahrain?
Sigh. You may have seen that I included a comment that other governments were more pro-active. So to follow your analogy, it is a supply and demand issue. If my competitors in say, construction, when we all are aware that the industry will boom, go and buys all the widgets that we all need to be successful, before I act, I would lose business, as I couldn't meet orders. If I had acted amongst the first, supply would not be an issue, and I would be in a good position.
 

Altair

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Thanks for clarifying and including the proposed June vaccine deliveries.

I think PuckChaser is not wrong to be sceptical, though, given the sometimes unpredictable delays in delivery. Hopefully the vaccines arrive as scheduled.

I'll reiterate again that we've had our hands tied by a lack of domestic vaccine production capability. Given that reality, I'm not sure what else the Feds can do; vaccine delivery is entirely in the hands of the manufacturers.
Canada made some extremely good/lucky bets when it came to procurement.

The main workhorse was to be Pfizer, a great bet. Their deliveries have been mostly on schedule, minus the hiccups in February and January.

The backup was Moderna. They have had consistent certification issues causing delays, but we are still getting them.

The hedge bet was AZ and J&J, and those are the ones running into the blood clotting issues, but they were always going to be the smallest amount of vaccines totals we get in the grand scheme of things.

Compare us to Australia who went all in on AZ and they are flat out screwed now, having to try to negotiate deals with Pfizer starting...well, now.

A lot is being made of delays, but those delays are coming from Moderna, the backup, not Pfizer, who has been consistent. And we played catchup in March and are pulling ahead of the G20 in April, with increased supply coming in June. Canada is doing great for a country that has yet to manufacture a single vaccine.
 

Altair

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Sigh. You may have seen that I included a comment that other governments were more pro-active. So to follow your analogy, it is a supply and demand issue. If my competitors in say, construction, when we all are aware that the industry will boom, go and buys all the widgets that we all need to be successful, before I act, I would lose business, as I couldn't meet orders. If I had acted amongst the first, supply would not be an issue, and I would be in a good position.
Why do you think Pfizer/Moderna/AZ would sell only to Canada and not to others regardless of when we showed up?

Do you think that if Canada negotiated a deal last march they would just not sell to anyone else?
 

Altair

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For the record, there was only one way to prevent being at the mercy of vaccine manufactures.

Produce vaccines at home, and deny export permits. Or be a guinea pig (while usually requires a smaller population in order to get fast real time date coming back). Or agree to get Sinovac or Sputnik, which have been shown to be of questionable value to places like Hungary and Chile.
 

Weinie

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Why do you think Pfizer/Moderna/AZ would sell only to Canada and not to others regardless of when we showed up?

Do you think that if Canada negotiated a deal last march they would just not sell to anyone else?
If their production was limited to a certain capacity, (which it is) and if we bought lets say, 80% of their capacity, then they only have 20% of their capacity to sell to anyone else. Widgets...........
 

Altair

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If their production was limited to a certain capacity, (which it is) and if we bought lets say, 80% of their capacity, then they only have 20% of their capacity to sell to anyone else. Widgets...........
Fair point.

You show me one country that doesn't produce vaccines (UK, USA, who are limiting export permits) that bought 80 percent of the vaccine manufactures capacity.

I'll wait.
 

Weinie

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For the record, there was only one way to prevent being at the mercy of vaccine manufactures.

Produce vaccines at home, and deny export permits. Or be a guinea pig (while usually requires a smaller population in order to get fast real time date coming back). Or agree to get Sinovac or Sputnik, which have been shown to be of questionable value to places like Hungary and Chile.
Interesting way to put it. We were never at the mercy of vaccine suppliers/manufacturers. They simply took orders, looked at their production capacity, and then said yea or nay. Those who got in line first with a credit card got vaccines. Those who dallied, didn't.
 

Altair

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Interesting way to put it. We were never at the mercy of vaccine suppliers/manufacturers. They simply took orders, looked at their production capacity, and then said yea or nay. Those who got in line first with a credit card got vaccines. Those who dallied, didn't.
The UK and USA limited export permits. Thus only a certain amount of vaccines could be sent internationally.

The EU did as well, but it didn't effect us.

Vaccine manufactures are not supermarkets, and there was no first come first serve. They are balancing out supplying the world and fulfilling their contracts, while working with limited export permits.

This we could just buy all their supply is pure nonsense. If this was the case, another country would have done it. A Spain, a France, a India, a Germany, a Turkey, someone would have jumped the line and bought up the capacity and be done their vaccination program.

If you can point out the country that did this, then you have a point. But I listed all the countries ahead of Canada according to CNN, (other sources has Canada ahead of places like Austria and Germany, so I took the least favorable one) and no big industrialized nation using AZ Moderna or Pfizer and not junk like Sinovac and Sputnik, is ahead of Canada by any considerable measure. Other than of course, the USA and UK who can limit export permits.

So which G20 country did this and left Canada in the dust? Until you can answer that question, you are peddling nonsense, IMHO.
 

Jarnhamar

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Will this be happening?
Is what happening, someone getting a medal? Probably.
Or do you mean to give someone credit? Should I give the government credit because it's April 2021 and there are rumors of a curfew on the horizon and the numbers of covid cases are exploding and hospitals are filling up again?

Or is credit due because we're almost at 20% of 1 dose or some shit like that?

I feel like you're really desperate to try and sell people on the idea that we're doing a good job.
 

Weinie

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The UK and USA limited export permits. Thus only a certain amount of vaccines could be sent internationally.

The EU did as well, but it didn't effect us.

Vaccine manufactures are not supermarkets, and there was no first come first serve. They are balancing out supplying the world and fulfilling their contracts, while working with limited export permits.

This we could just buy all their supply is pure nonsense. If this was the case, another country would have done it. A Spain, a France, a India, a Germany, a Turkey, someone would have jumped the line and bought up the capacity and be done their vaccination program.

If you can point out the country that did this, then you have a point. But I listed all the countries ahead of Canada according to CNN, (other sources has Canada ahead of places like Austria and Germany, so I took the least favorable one) and no big industrialized nation using AZ Moderna or Pfizer and not junk like Sinovac and Sputnik, is ahead of Canada by any considerable measure. Other than of course, the USA and UK who can limit export permits.

So which G20 country did this and left Canada in the dust? Until you can answer that question, you are peddling nonsense, IMHO.
There is this report.


And then the question becomes, when did countries get in line for delivery? Promised future production is useless if the virus has ravaged your population already. Better late than never is............too late.
 

Altair

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Is what happening, someone getting a medal? Probably.
MGen Dany Fortin is likely getting one actually
Or do you mean to give someone credit? Should I give the government credit because it's April 2021 and there are rumors of a curfew on the horizon and the numbers of covid cases are exploding and hospitals are filling up again?

Or is credit due because we're almost at 20% of 1 dose or some shit like that?

I feel like you're really desperate to try and sell people on the idea that we're doing a good job.
You said you would give credit where credit was due, unless you are backpedaling now?
 

Jarnhamar

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MGen Dany Fortin is likely getting one actually
That's cool. I wouldn't be surprised if I get asked to attend that medal presentation.
You said you would give credit where credit was due, unless you are backpedaling now?
Are you asking me if I'm going to give credit to the government for vaccinating the entire population (that wants it) by September 2021- on 16 April 2021 when only 19.18% has received one dose so far?
 

Altair

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There is this report.


And then the question becomes, when did countries get in line for delivery? Promised future production is useless if the virus has ravaged your population already. Better late than never is............too late.
Its a dumb question.

I'm sorry for being blunt, but it really is a dumb question.

Because there are two obvious answers to it, and both of them don't really matter.

Answer 1) Either Canada got in line late, and is now getting more vaccines than those who got in line before, meaning that the line is meaningless

Answer 2) Canada got in line early, and other countries at the start got more vaccines than Canada, meaning the line was meaningless.

The true answer is it does not matter when someone got in line, because the vaccine manufactures are not doling out vaccines on a first come first serve basis. And thank the gods they are not, because imagine the rest of the world waiting if china and india bought up all the vaccines first, and then next in line being Europe, and so on and so forth.

To focus on the line is nonsense. Again, you point at the G20 country that "bought the supply" and I'll admit you have a point. But seeing as Canada as either dead even with its peers of ahead, shows that this did not happen.

So you want Canada to have done something that couldn't be done, and wasn't done by anyone else. Realistic.

P.S. This is a hypothetical
 

Altair

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That's cool. I wouldn't be surprised if I get asked to attend that medal presentation.

Are you asking me if I'm going to give credit to the government for vaccinating the entire population (that wants it) by September 2021- on 16 April 2021 when only 19.18% has received one dose so far?
22%, who's counting I guess.

I think its becoming more clear that Canada will meet the September deadline, so I'm just making sure that you giving credit is still the plan.

But I will very much wait until September for confirmation.
 

PuckChaser

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You're being purposely disingenuous. You are not counting the deliveries coming in June.

By the end of June, when Pfizer is going to dump 9.6 million doses on us alone, the totals will be
Where's your source? I cited my source directly from the Federal government and they don't have any delivery data beyond end of May, and no Moderna/AZ/J+J data beyond end of April (I gave them credit for 2.8M May doses cited in the article).
 

Weinie

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MGen Dany Fortin is likely getting one actually

You said you would give credit where credit was due, unless you are backpedaling now?
“When men are most sure and arrogant they are commonly most mistaken, giving views to passion without that proper deliberation which alone can secure them from the grossest absurdities.” ― David Hume

One of us will be proven correct.
 

Altair

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Where's your source? I cited my source directly from the Federal government and they don't have any delivery data beyond end of May, and no Moderna/AZ/J+J data beyond end of April (I gave them credit for 2.8M May doses cited in the article).
Pfizer has projections of the supply but not the dates. The supply projections are 4.1m for may, and 9.6 million for june.

And that's before they adjusted the numbers today.


Moderna will send far fewer COVID-19 shots to Canada this month than originally planned as the company grapples with production issues at its facilities in Europe.

But its main competitor, Pfizer — which also produces a highly effective mRNA vaccine against the novel coronavirus — has said it will send millions more doses to Canada in May, June and beyond, a commitment that will more than cover the shortfall from Moderna.

Massachusetts-based Moderna was poised to send 1.2 million more doses to Canada this month, but that shipment has been cut back to just 650,000 shots.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Friday that while the delay in Moderna's shipments is disappointing, Canada has now signed an agreement with Pfizer for eight million more vaccine doses on top of what has already been promised.

Canada will receive four million more Pfizer doses in May, another two million in June and two million more in July, Trudeau said.

So Moderna will be 650k short, meanwhile Canada gets 6 million more, net, 5.4 million more.

So if my numbers are right, in may we get 8.1 milllion doses, and June is going to be 11.6 million.
 
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Weinie

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Its a dumb question.

I'm sorry for being blunt, but it really is a dumb question.

Because there are two obvious answers to it, and both of them don't really matter.

Answer 1) Either Canada got in line late, and is now getting more vaccines than those who got in line before, meaning that the line is meaningless

Answer 2) Canada got in line early, and other countries at the start got more vaccines than Canada, meaning the line was meaningless.

The true answer is it does not matter when someone got in line, because the vaccine manufactures are not doling out vaccines on a first come first serve basis. And thank the gods they are not, because imagine the rest of the world waiting if china and india bought up all the vaccines first, and then next in line being Europe, and so on and so forth.

To focus on the line is nonsense. Again, you point at the G20 country that "bought the supply" and I'll admit you have a point. But seeing as Canada as either dead even with its peers of ahead, shows that this did not happen.

So you want Canada to have done something that couldn't be done, and wasn't done by anyone else. Realistic.

P.S. This is a hypothetical
How does not getting vaccines earlier, and not being able to vaccinate people earlier, when as a result (and every medical expert will concur) hospitalization cases and deaths soar.................... mean the line is meaningless and does not matter?. I am truly not following your logic.
 

Brad Sallows

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Being wrong isn't bad. I was skeptical that we'd even have vaccines to start trials any earlier than Jan 2021. Instead, trials were well under way by the end of last summer and, if more expedited approval processes and some risk-taking had been accepted, vaccinations could easily have started by early last fall if not earlier. Authorities are still too risk-averse, but the tools are there if they will just stop flinching so much.
 
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