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Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread

QV

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Remius

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Page 3 of the Globe and Mail. Not exactly relegated to the back. Residential school issue is the main story right now.
 

Kirkhill

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While I can be happy that the bloom is coming off China's rose, and Xi in particular, I can't help but think things might be getting a little tetchy.

Does Xi stay? Does he quit? Does he get pushed? Does he do a Galtieri and invade the nearest island?
 

CBH99

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Personally, I think the CCP quietly replace Xi within the next few years. Ofcourse officially, Xi will step aside 'due to health reasons' or something like that, and support his replacement. (Again, a show for the outside world.)

Xi, in all fairness, has done an amazing job at bringing China to where it is now. A rapidly growing middle class, world renowned tourist attractions (minus the fact that tourists are too afraid to go to China now), the rapid modernization and professionalization of it's military, an aggressive foreign policy which has secured Chinese interests in dozens of countries around the world, more global influence than almost anybody else, etc.



But, in recent years, Xi has also created a lot of enemies...

- Tensions with the rest of the world are at an all time high, as he continues to hold citizens from a few different countries as political hostages. Not only is he keeping foreigners incarcerated indefinitely, but relations with those countries are rocky, at best.

The US, EU, and several others have refused to allow Chinese state companies to install or provide their 5G networks.


- IF Xi were to invade Taiwan, as he constantly hints at, it would be the end of China as a global player in it's current form. Any attack/invasion of Taiwan would immediately result in massive amounts of civilian casualties, only to have the Chinese military oust a democratically elected government, and essentially take the entire country prisoner. (Since most Taiwanese have been very clear, they would rather live in a democracy.)

^ It would be a political nightmare that not even China could cover up. A democratically elected government, ousted. The entire country essentially taken prison and forced to be part of the 'one China'. News networks could finally talk about something other than Covid, as urban areas burn and the civilian death count just keeps rising.

Countries all over the world would immediately look to other countries to replace their trading relationship with China. Other SE Asian countries (that also have beef with China right now) would absorb a ton of business, as countries and businesses alike would work as fast as possible to distance themselves from China. Economic sanctions would actually cripple China, and the diplomatic actions taken (forbidding air travel from China, not granting entry visas, etc etc.)


- Also, obviously, all of the nonsense around Covid hasn't helped either. Add that to the mix, as well as the various dangers governments all over the world are openly announcing from Chinese-sponsored influence activities, and China is quite rapidly losing it's clout.


- Its most reliable allies are a handful of 3rd world countries, and only because they got swooned in with the "belt & road initiative". How strong & how deep is their new found alliance with Russia? In their case, 'the enemy of thy enemy is thy friend' I believe...I don't know how durable that alliance will be when SHTF.



Overall, looking within the next 10yrs, Xi is on his way to undoing all of the great things he has done. I don't think the CCP will sit quietly by the sidelines as Xi destroys the future that many in China are excited for, and feel is well overdue.


0.02
 

OldSolduer

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Personally, I think the CCP quietly replace Xi within the next few years. Ofcourse officially, Xi will step aside 'due to health reasons' or something like that, and support his replacement. (Again, a show for the outside world.)


0.02
No doubt its the lead therapy pyrotechnically injected health reason :sneaky:
 

MilEME09

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Nuclear plant releasing radiation and gas above safety limits? Simply raise the safety limits! Cause China, this is a nuclear disaster waiting to happen.
 

dimsum

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Nuclear plant releasing radiation and gas above safety limits? Simply raise the safety limits! Cause China, this is a nuclear disaster waiting to happen.
That reactor isn't in the middle of nowhere either. HK is part of that potentially-affected area.
 

ModlrMike

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China is about to have a population catastrophe. The one, and later two child policies have skewed the sex at birth ratio to the point that it is estimated that there are now 30 million more men than women. This number may be artificially low, given under reporting of births, and the real number may be as high as 36 million. They are rapidly reaching the point where there are just not enough women to go around. In addition, the accepted fertility rate required to replace a population is considered to be 2.1. China's current fertility rate approaches 1.5. Add to the problem the exceptionally low numbers of immigrants to China, and you have a population that is unable to sustain itself.
 

daftandbarmy

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China is about to have a population catastrophe. The one, and later two child policies have skewed the sex at birth ratio to the point that it is estimated that there are now 30 million more men than women. This number may be artificially low, given under reporting of births, and the real number may be as high as 36 million. They are rapidly reaching the point where there are just not enough women to go around. In addition, the accepted fertility rate required to replace a population is considered to be 2.1. China's current fertility rate approaches 1.5. Add to the problem the exceptionally low numbers of immigrants to China, and you have a population that is unable to sustain itself.

And countries with large numbers of younger men are more prone to going to war than 'older' populations.

Young Men and War: Could We Have Predicted the Distribution of Violent Conflicts at the End of the Millennium?​


In an attempt to answer this question, two psychologists from York University suggest that the size of a country's young male population can tell us if that country will engage in war or suffer from civil unrest. Their theory, which they call "the male age composition hypothesis," challenges the environmental security field's traditional model, which views conflict as the result of a variety of interrelated factors—particularly population growth, resource scarcity, and environmental degradation.

According to Neil Wiener, the new hypothesis shares the environmental security model's concern with population growth. But rather than focusing on growth of a society's whole population, the male age composition hypothesis looks at the size of the young male population in comparison to the whole population. The theory does not consider environmental degradation as a factor and looks at resource scarcity and competition only in terms of a "biological/evolutionary view." Wiener and his colleague, Christian Mesquida, used the "non-moral" framework of evolutionary psychology to explain the occurrence (and non-occurrence) of "coalitional aggression," a term they use to refer to war and other forms of collective aggression.

Stated simply, the male age composition hypothesis claims that "countries with relatively large numbers of young males are more likely to experience episodes of coalitional aggression."

 

MilEME09

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A good little video about how China may be putting the environment and itès own people at risk in the name of progress, and their lax safety standards.
 

OldSolduer

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A good little video about how China may be putting the environment and itès own people at risk in the name of progress, and their lax safety standards.
Well the Great Leap Forward and whatever else Mao dreamt up in his murderous mind seems to be present in this regime.
 

MilEME09

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Japan struck a nerve, so time for the standard PRC threats.
 

FJAG

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Japan struck a nerve, so time for the standard PRC threats.
Looks like the Chinese don't even try to be subtle anymore.

🍻
 
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