Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread

[QV]

China's future is f***ked. Demographically they are in a free fall and cannot recover. They import most of their energy needs and much of their food. Some analysts estimate China could collapse inside the next decade. Expect all kinds of shenanigans from China as they seek to exploit the rest of the world in order to facilitate their very survival as a nation.

 

[JLB50]

China's future is f***ked. Demographically they are in a free fall and cannot recover. They import most of their energy needs and much of their food. Some analysts estimate China could collapse inside the next decade. Expect all kinds of shenanigans from China as they seek to exploit the rest of the world in order to facilitate their very survival as a nation.

Much like what Japan did in 1941 as Roosevelt closed off their supply of oil, which was being used to further Japan’s wars in China and elsewhere shortly before Pearl Harbor.

 

[Dana381]

China's future is f***ked. Demographically they are in a free fall and cannot recover. They import most of their energy needs and much of their food. Some analysts estimate China could collapse inside the next decade. Expect all kinds of shenanigans from China as they seek to exploit the rest of the world in order to facilitate their very survival as a nation.

Which is very scary because desperate times call for desperate measures. Who knows what China will do when faced with their own demise.

 

[Brad Sallows]

China has, like Japan had, choices about how belligerent to be.

 

[YZT580]

China's future is f***ked. Demographically they are in a free fall and cannot recover. They import most of their energy needs and much of their food. Some analysts estimate China could collapse inside the next decade. Expect all kinds of shenanigans from China as they seek to exploit the rest of the world in order to facilitate their very survival as a nation.

they have already started. Their silk road initiatives give them access and control of significant off-shore resources, their militarizing the Spratleys provides access to sea resources especially food (the size of their fishing fleet bears witness to that), and their cheap labour makes the west beholden to them for their profits.

 

[Czech_pivo]

they have already started. Their silk road initiatives give them access and control of significant off-shore resources, their militarizing the Spratleys provides access to sea resources especially food (the size of their fishing fleet bears witness to that), and their cheap labour makes the west beholden to them for their profits.

Drinking water, clean drinking water - secure access to clean drinking water. This is what they lack and this should be what keeps their leaders up all night. Fast forward 10-20yrs and this is what will make or break the current government system in China.
They can try and move as much as they want from South to North but long term it won't matter.

 

[RangerRay]

I think a lot of us have forgotten about “Project Sidewinder” from the 90’s. This current controversy has it’s roots there, no doubt.

Project Sidewinder - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[QV]

they have already started. Their silk road initiatives give them access and control of significant off-shore resources, their militarizing the Spratleys provides access to sea resources especially food (the size of their fishing fleet bears witness to that), and their cheap labour makes the west beholden to them for their profits.

Yes. I suggest it will get worse yet as they continue to try and shore up their horrible position.

 

[JLB50]

they have already started. Their silk road initiatives give them access and control of significant off-shore resources, their militarizing the Spratleys provides access to sea resources especially food (the size of their fishing fleet bears witness to that), and their cheap labour makes the west beholden to them for their profi

I think a lot of us have forgotten about “Project Sidewinder” from the 90’s. This current controversy has it’s roots there, no doubt.

Project Sidewinder - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

I must say, I had forgotten all about Project Sidewinder. Thanks for bringing it up. The writing isn’t just in the wall…like a Banksy mural would suddenly appear…it’s been on the wall for a long, long time. And the Chinese have simply been adding more and more graffiti to it.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I think a lot of us have forgotten about “Project Sidewinder” from the 90’s. This current controversy has it’s roots there, no doubt.

Project Sidewinder - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Prior to 1989 I never once heard anyone in Canada - whether the public, the media or the Government ever use the phase 'Anti-Slavic' rhetoric when talking about the Soviet Union or Russian Communists. Now, anytime someone starts talking about Communist China and its activities here in Canada and Bamm - out comes the anti-Asian or anti-Chinese rhetoric.

 

[JLB50]

Prior to 1989 I never once heard anyone in Canada - whether the public, the media or the Government ever use the phase 'Anti-Slavic' rhetoric when talking about the Soviet Union or Russian Communists. Now, anytime someone starts talking about Communist China and its activities here in Canada and Bamm - out comes the anti-Asian or anti-Chinese rhetoric.

Inquiries into China's meddling must not discourage minorities from taking part in Canadian democracy, says Alberta Liberal MP Chahal

Election volunteers who took part in campaigns suspected of China's meddling should be interviewed to get the relevant facts, says Guy Saint-Jacques, former Canadian ambassador to China.

www.hilltimes.com

We even have to be careful about questioning those who were involved in the meddling or the campaigning, either directly or indirectly. I guess I’m not “woke” enough.

 

[Kirkhill]

Prior to 1989 I never once heard anyone in Canada - whether the public, the media or the Government ever use the phase 'Anti-Slavic' rhetoric when talking about the Soviet Union or Russian Communists. Now, anytime someone starts talking about Communist China and its activities here in Canada and Bamm - out comes the anti-Asian or anti-Chinese rhetoric.

The counter to that tendency.... It applies equally to Russian, Iranian and Islamic communities generally.

To really tackle Beijing’s interference, Canada must engage with the Chinese diaspora​

AI-MEN LAU
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PUBLISHED 5 HOURS AGO
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Ai-Men Lau is a research analyst at Doublethink Lab and adviser to Alliance Canada Hong Kong. She is a contributor to Alliance Canada Hong Kong’s 2021 Report “In Plain Sight: Beijing’s unrestricted network of foreign influence in Canada.”
What needs to happen before Canada takes action on foreign interference? Apparently something as drastic as leaks of top-secret intelligence documents to the media.
Last week, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau responded to recent reports of Chinese foreign interference and disinformation campaigns in Canadian federal elections by announcing that his government would appoint an independent special rapporteur to investigate, provide recommendations and decide if a public inquiry is necessary. Further steps include reviews by intelligence bodies on such foreign-interference issues and new funding for civil-society organizations to combat disinformation.
Mr. Trudeau also announced consultations on a foreign-agent registry and the appointment of a new foreign-interference co-ordinator at Public Safety Canada. (Consultations on a foreign-agent registry – a policy previously pursued by Kenny Chiu, the former Conservative member of Parliament who was reportedly targeted by a Beijing-led online disinformation campaign – were actually announced back in December.)
This is all welcome news, and it signals that Ottawa may finally be taking foreign interference seriously. But the government continues to rely on top-down methods to address the issue, despite the fact that it alone cannot adequately take on the problem – and nor should it be the sole institution to take on the challenge. While funding is coming for non-governmental organizations to tackle disinformation, what is needed is a whole-of-society approach.
This includes engagement with a broader range of traditional and non-traditional stakeholders, such as academia, the private sector, media and local communities. Crucially, it prioritizes engagement with these stakeholders and with NGOs, aims to facilitate active participation in the decision-making process and strives to rebuild trust in our public institutions. In the specific case of foreign interference, it would allow the challenge to be tackled in ways that do not demonize equity-deserving groups.
In contrast, the current and proposed actions by the Canadian government overlook the targeted individuals and affected communities at the heart of China’s foreign-interference efforts. Canada’s response continues to miss opportunities to engage with the Chinese diaspora and dissident communities who have long been sounding the alarm on the Chinese Communist Party’s meddling in our democracy.
The issue of foreign interference, after all, goes beyond electoral meddling. It also involves the covert amplification of pro-Beijing narratives and the suppression of anti-Beijing ones. This has ramifications for the Chinese diaspora, which has found itself caught in the crossfire between two worlds and the geopolitical tension between them.
The status quo represents a silencing on two fronts. While the Chinese diaspora faces increasing anti-Asian sentiment and marginalization in Canada, the baggage of another home has followed them across oceans. Those who dare to speak out against the CCP, even on Canadian soil, endanger not only themselves but their friends and loved ones back in China or other PRC-controlled territories.
This is why the whole-of-society approach should centre on the Chinese diaspora – particularly the vulnerable communities within it, such as Hong Kongers, Uyghurs and Tibetans. While the diaspora and dissident communities bear the brunt of foreign interference by the CCP, these groups are often ignored when they could be helping to combat it. Many Hong Kongers, for instance, are well versed in tactics used by the CCP to target voters, having seen them in action firsthand in their own elections.

 

[YZT580]

The counter to that tendency.... It applies equally to Russian, Iranian and Islamic communities generally.

or maybe Canada needs to offer some protection, other than platitudes to those who receive threatening phone calls or whose relatives are suddenly out of touch.
I don't know where you all live but at least here in rural Ontario there is very little racism with respect Asian peoples. Most of the animosity is directly aimed at the Chinese government's actions and attitude. Refusing to purchase made in china goods is not the same as being racist.

 

[QV]

I think a lot of us have forgotten about “Project Sidewinder” from the 90’s. This current controversy has it’s roots there, no doubt.

Project Sidewinder - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Maybe someone at the NP was reading your comment.

The agent who warned Ottawa about Chinese political infiltration years ago: Full Comment podcast

Project Sidewinder, a joint CSIS and RCMP report, found evidence of Canadian politicians under Chinese influence, Beijing’s agents funnelling money to Canadian…

nationalpost.com

 

[JLB50]

Canada on sidelines as U.S., Britain, Australia move ahead on new security deal | National Newswatch

National Newswatch: Canada's most comprehensive site for political news and views. Make it a daily habit.

www.nationalnewswatch.com

Hardly a surprise.

 

[RangerRay]

Maybe someone at the NP was reading your comment.

The agent who warned Ottawa about Chinese political infiltration years ago: Full Comment podcast

Project Sidewinder, a joint CSIS and RCMP report, found evidence of Canadian politicians under Chinese influence, Beijing’s agents funnelling money to Canadian…

nationalpost.com

Total coincidence. I heard Sam Cooper talk about it yesterday, jogging some my brain cells, and then after I posted that link, I saw the podcast drop. It’s a good listen.

‎Full Comment: The agent who warned Ottawa about Chinese political infiltration years ago on Apple Podcasts

‎Show Full Comment, Ep The agent who warned Ottawa about Chinese political infiltration years ago - Mar 13, 2023

podcasts.apple.com

 

[OldSolduer]

or maybe Canada needs to offer some protection, other than platitudes to those who receive threatening phone calls or whose relatives are suddenly out of touch.
I don't know where you all live but at least here in rural Ontario there is very little racism with respect Asian peoples. Most of the animosity is directly aimed at the Chinese government's actions and attitude. Refusing to purchase made in china goods is not the same as being racist.

Let's start by tossing a diplomat or two out "persona non grata" or whatever fancy Latin Phrase we can use.

I'd prefer "kick his sorry ass out of Canada" but diplomacy sometimes is too nice.

 

[Kirkhill]

Canada on sidelines as U.S., Britain, Australia move ahead on new security deal | National Newswatch

National Newswatch: Canada's most comprehensive site for political news and views. Make it a daily habit.

www.nationalnewswatch.com

Hardly a surprise.

I am not a Rishi fan. I lean towards Boris, Liz and Ian Duncan Smith.

Sunak attacks Truss over Beijing, her camp says he is 'soft on China'

Rishi Sunak's get-tough stance on China was last night called into question by his Tory leadership rival Liz Truss (pictured).

www.dailymail.co.uk

Ian and Liz were battling it out about who would be tougher.

IDS launches attack on Sunak as China 'poses a threat' to UK security

Sir Iain Duncan Smith warned that China "poses a threat to every element of what we do", questioning the Prime Minister's decision to pursue an approach of "robust pragmatism".

www.express.co.uk

IDS thinks Rishi is too weak on China and is continuing to say that.


From the Guardian BLUF

Labour’s attempt to block illegal migration bill defeated in Commons – live

Opposition amendment to stop the government barring small boat arrivals claiming asylum defeated by 312 votes to 249

www.theguardian.com

8h ago16.00 GMT

Sunak says China is 'epoch-defining challenge to type of international order we want'​

The updated integrated review includes a foreword from Rishi Sunak. This is what he says in it about China.

China poses an epoch-defining challenge to the type of international order we want to see, both in terms of security and values – and so our approach must evolve. We will work with our partners to engage with Beijing on issues such as climate change. But where there are attempts by the Chinese Communist party to coerce or create dependencies, we will work closely with others to push back against them. And we are taking new action to protect ourselves, our democracy and our economy at home.

I have to say that Rishi's position does make some sense. Unless we're planning to engage China tomorrow, and win, we're going to be playing against them for a very long time. Economically, Culturally, Politically, Diplomatically and Militarily (as a last resort).

If that IS the Five Eyes position (3 of 5 anyway) then we have to pick a side and forget this Trudeaupian Honest Broker nonsense - and commit - long term. Basically commit to another Cold War.

7h ago
16.52 GMT
Iain Duncan Smith criticises Sunak for backing away from calling China a threat
Iain Duncan Smith, the former Conservative leader and one of the most prominent China hawks in the party, used his question to James Cleverly in the statement on the integrated review to mock the government’s new approach.

He said that, when Rishi Sunak was standing for the leadership last summer, he described China as a “systemic threat”. That was later watered down to “systemic challenge”, and treating China with “robust pragmatism”. He went on:

That robust pragmatism meant that we have sanctioned nobody in Hong Kong, when America has sanctioned 10; that we have sanctioned three low officials in Xinjiang, when America has sanctioned 11, including Chen Quanguo, the architect of that terrible atrocity; and we did not kick out the Chinese officials who beat people up on the streets of the UK.

But now I understand that [China is seen as] an epoch-defining challenge.

I just want to ask, in the document that the prime minister has produced today, in the same paragraph he does refer to that epoch-defining challenge. But then he goes on to say that this is in the face of that “threat”.

Does this now mean that China is a threat? Or an epoch-defining challenge? Or a challenging government epoch? Or even none of that?

In reply, James Cleverly, the foreign secretary, said he could understand the desire to sum up the policy towards China with a single phrase. But he said with a country as big and as significant as China, it was not possible to make it that simple.

8h ago16.28 GMT

How UK government has toughened up its language on China in integrated review since 2021​

Here is a key passage in the integrated review refresh explaining government policy to China. It says:

The UK’s China policy is being updated to respond to two overarching factors that have continued to evolve since IR2021:
i. First, China’s size and significance on almost every global issue, which will continue to increase in the years ahead in ways that will be felt in the UK and around the world. China is a long-standing permanent member of the UN Security Council. It now accounts for nearly a fifth of the world economy and is a major investor in the developing world. It is highly advanced in several industrial, scientific and technological fields, and plays a vital role in many global supply chains of importance to the UK. As the world’s largest investor in sustainable energy and the largest emitter of carbon, the choices that China makes are critical to our collective ability to tackle climate change. In other areas such as global health and pandemic preparedness, decisions taken by China have the potential to have profound impact on our lives at home.
ii. Second, the UK’s growing concerns about the actions and stated intent of the CCP. Since IR2021, it has chosen to strengthen its partnership with Russia just as Russia pursued its invasion of Ukraine, and continued to disregard universal human rights and its international commitments, from Tibet and Xinjiang to Hong Kong. Its ‘new multilateralism’ is challenging the centrality of human rights and freedoms in the UN system. It has pursued rapid and opaque military modernisation with huge new investments, militarised disputed islands in the South China Sea, and refused to renounce the use of force to achieve its objectives with regard to Taiwan. It has used economic power to coerce countries with which it disagrees, such as Lithuania. The CCP has sanctioned British parliamentarians and acted in other ways to undermine free speech. And as the Director General of MI5 identified publicly last year, it has engaged in both espionage and interference in the UK.
The UK does not accept that China’s relationship with the UK or its impact on the international system are set on a predetermined course. Our preference is for better cooperation and understanding, and predictability and stability for global public good. But we believe that this will depend on the choices China makes, and will be made harder if trends towards greater authoritarianism and assertiveness overseas continue. The UK’s policy towards China will therefore be anchored in our core national interests and our higher interest in an open and stable international order, based on the UN Charter and international law. Where it is consistent with these interests, we will engage constructively with the Chinese government, business and people and cooperate on shared priorities. But wherever the CCP’s actions and stated intent threaten the UK’s interests, we will take swift and robust action to protect them. This is the template for mature diplomacy between two P5 nations and is aligned with the approaches adopted by our closest allies and partners, including those in Europe, the US, Australia, Canada and Japan.
By comparision, this is what the original integrated review, published in March 2021, said about China. Since then, the language has been toughened – although not as much as some Conservatives want.

China as a systemic competitor. China’s increasing power and international assertiveness is likely to be the most significant geopolitical factor of the 2020s. The scale and reach of China’s economy, size of its population, technological advancement and increasing ambition to project its influence on the global stage, for example through the Belt and Road Initiative, will have profound implications worldwide. Open, trading economies like the UK will need to engage with China and remain open to Chinese trade and investment, but they must also protect themselves against practices that have an adverse effect on prosperity and security. Cooperation with China will also be vital in tackling transnational challenges, particularly climate change and biodiversity loss …
China’s growing international stature is by far the most significant geopolitical factor in the world today, with major implications for British values and interests and for the structure and shape of the international order. The fact that China is an authoritarian state, with different values to ours, presents challenges for the UK and our allies. China will contribute more to global growth than any other country in the next decade with benefits to the global economy. China and the UK both benefit from bilateral trade and investment, but China also presents the biggest state-based threat to the UK’s economic security.

8h ago16.09 GMT
Tobias Ellwood, the Conservative chair of the Commons defence committee, says many MPs hoped that previous cuts to the defence budget would be cut today. The world is sliding towards a new cold war, but the government is maintaining a peacetime budget. He says the government should move to spending 2.5% of GDP on defence now.

Cleverly says the government has committed to 2.5% as a sustainable baseline. He says the government will continue to assess threats, and make sure policy is aligned to deal with them.

8h ago16.04 GMT
Alicia Kearns, the Conservative MP who chairs the Commons foreign affairs committee, says she welcomes much of what is in the revised integrated review. But she says China should not just be seen as an economic threat. She urges the government to show greater resolve in dealing with Chinese oppression, for example, by shutting down their illegal police stations abroad.

Cleverly says the government considers that the threat from China is not just economic.

 

[Kirkhill]

I am still no Rishi fan. I consider him too clever by half and playing to HIS own agenda.

He knifed Boris.

He knifed Liz.

Rishi Sunak brands China a major 'threat' in interview set to air on US TV tonight​

Rishi Sunak is set to appear on a primetime NBC slot in the US at 10.30pm GMT.​

By DYLAN DONNELLY
18:51, Mon, Mar 13, 2023 | UPDATED: 19:41, Mon, Mar 13, 2023


Rishi Sunak calls China the “biggest threat” to the global economy in a new interview set to air on US TV tonight. It is one of a number of topics the Prime Minister will address in the primetime NBC slot as he looks to thaw relations across the pond. Sunak, who touched down in San Diego on Sunday, has vowed to increase defence spending by nearly £5 billion over the next two years in response to hostile states.

“The behaviour that we’ve seen in China over recent times is concerning,” Sunak told journalist Lester Holt at the USS Midway Museum ahead of a summit with Joe Biden and Anthony Albanese to discuss the AUKUS pact.

In a teaser for the interview, the Prime Minister also said Beijing is “acting in a more authoritarian fashion at home” and is “more assertive overseas”

“China represents the biggest state threat to our economic interests, for sure,” he added.
“And it’s a systemic challenge for the world order.”

In the US 18 months after the AUKUS defence pact was struck, Sunak did not directly answer questions on how Britain would respond should China attack Taiwan.
Pointing to the UK’s support for Ukraine, he said: “I think the best thing we can do to deter hostile action by any state anywhere is doing what we’re doing right now in Ukraine.
“And that’s where we’ve seen an illegal, unprovoked invasion of Ukraine by Russia. And the right thing to have done in that circumstance is to provide Ukraine with all the support that it needs to defend itself.”
The AUKUS pact aims to deliver nuclear-powered submarines to Canberra as part of a bid to counter China.

Beijing called the submarine deal “a blatant act of nuclear proliferation” that undermines regional peace and stability.
Sunak’s comments about China being “the biggest threat to our economic interests” also run at odds with Conservative MPs.
Alicia Kearns, the Tory chair of the Commons foreign affairs committee, told the Prime Minister the threat from China should “not be seen as primarily economic”.
“That is to fail to understand China is foremost seeking to undermine our national security and sovereignty,” she told the Guardian.
“Because no county can have economic security without national security.”

Another Tory MP told Express.co.uk "the real test for the special relationship has to be movement on a trade deal".
"There has never been any question of our security relationship with the US but clearly our trade relationship has become strained," they said.

https://www.express.co.uk/


"The jury is out on whether Sunak has rekindled the special relationship."
Sunak’s interview airs on ‘NBC Nightly News with Lester Holt’ tonight at 6.30pm ET, 5.30pm CT, and 10.30pm GMT.

Sunak says China is 'biggest threat’ in new interview

Rishi Sunak is set to appear on a primetime NBC slot in the US at 10.30pm GMT.

www.express.co.uk

 

[Halifax Tar]

I have to wonder if our allies consider us fully compromised and unserious.

Are we more work than were worth to our allies ?