Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread

[Halifax Tar]

Our official position is um uh well its complicated so one has to tread ummm very uh carefully.

If we had a frigate (or more) on station with an Allied TG it would make for an interesting scenario.

 

[YZT580]

If we had a frigate (or more) on station with an Allied TG it would make for an interesting scenario.

If we had a frigate that we could put on station with an Allied TG it would make for an interesting scenario. (Is that more accurate?)

 

[QV]

I read quite a lot today on potential China assault scenarios on Taiwan, none look good for the ROC.

 

[JLB50]

I read quite a lot today on potential China assault scenarios on Taiwan, none look good for the ROC.

I’m assuming China has already infiltrated Taiwan with probably tens if not hundreds of thousands of its sleeper agents behind the lines to destroy, occupy and assassinate once the wake-up call comes.

 

[Halifax Tar]

If we had a frigate that we could put on station with an Allied TG it would make for an interesting scenario. (Is that more accurate?)

We can generally meet our international commitments.

That might be all we can do, but we can do that.

 

[QV]

I’m assuming China has already infiltrated Taiwan with probably tens if not hundreds of thousands of its sleeper agents behind the lines to destroy, occupy and assassinate once the wake-up call comes.

That was part of what I read.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Russia tried that with Ukraine, likley a lot of those "Sleepers" are known and I suspect the damage will be a lot less than their handlers point to in their briefing back in Beijing. I suspect inflating the effect of your agents can have is a great way to ensure job stability in these authoritarian Security Services.

 

[RangerRay]

I believe our official position is we take note of Beijing’s claim over Taiwan but we don’t officially recognize it as either a part of China, the legitimate government of China, or an independent nation. Although we don’t have diplomatic relations with Taiwan, they do have “trade offices” here. Because Beijing gets really touchy about how other countries view Taiwan, Canadian governments have been careful not to offend our colonial masters in Beijing and not refer to Taiwan as an independent entity.

So if the PRC does invade Taiwan, it probably depends on if we elected a government that wasn’t in the thrall of Beijing. Right now, I’m not confident we will since all parties have skeletons in their closets on this file.

 

[Halifax Tar]

I've been hearing speculation that its believed China will make a move before the next US Fed Election.

 

[YZT580]

I've been hearing speculation that its believed China will make a move before the next US Fed Election.

only if they think they can win convincingly or if they have to shut up a restive population. The status quo is quite profitable for them

 

[Czech_pivo]

Ahhh….. ummmm …. Yes Minister

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It's not off the mark at all.....

"Between 1933 and 1939, Germany expanded and strengthened its trade connections with a number of Eastern European countries to a point where their economic expansion became dependent on trade with Germany, making it the dominant economic power in the region. By 1939, the year the Second World War began in Europe, Germany was the largest trading partner of the four countries listed; this was also true of Czechoslovakia in 1937, Poland in 1938, and the Soviet Union in 1940, although the share of total exports to Germany from these countries was lower."

Eastern Europe: trade with Germany 1933-1939, by country | Statista

Between 1933 and 1939, Germany expanded and strengthened its trade connections with a number of Eastern European countries to a point where their economic expansion became dependent on trade with Germany, making it the dominant economic power in the region.

www.statista.com

 

[JLB50]

That was part of what I read.

I wonder how many sleepers they have here in Canada? Mind you, we wouldn’t likely face an invasion the way Taiwan would. Just destruction of our social fabric, information systems, banking, etc. Right now, they’re going for the “soft kill” while smiling and saying “I come in peace.”

I tend to agree with others here who have said that World War 3 has already begun and the weapons being used by the enemy (I.e. China, Russia, North Korea and Iran) are not necessarily guns and missiles. It’s a notion most Canadians find hard to grasp. Hopefully, as a nation, we’ll soon awaken from our long sleep.

 

[Halifax Tar]

I wonder how many sleepers they have here in Canada? Mind you, we wouldn’t likely face an invasion the way Taiwan would. Just destruction of our social fabric, information systems, banking, etc. Right now, they’re going for the “soft kill” while smiling and saying “I come in peace.”

I tend to agree with others here who have said that World War 3 has already begun and the weapons being used by the enemy (I.e. China, Russia, North Korea and Iran) are not necessarily guns and missiles, yet. It’s a notion most Canadians find hard to grasp. Hopefully, as a nation, we’ll soon awaken from our long sleep.

I just added in an important "yet".

 

[Edward Campbell]

I’m assuming China has already infiltrated Taiwan with probably tens if not hundreds of thousands of its sleeper agents behind the lines to destroy, occupy and assassinate once the wake-up call comes.

Probably correct; but I'm also assuming that Taiwan has its own agents inside the Chinese establishment, including in the PLA and even in the Central Committee. Some will be "true believers," others are paid. I suspect that each side is also infected with turncoats.

My sense is that many Chinese look, very fondly, back to the 1910s and '20s. I attended a lecture, back in the late 1990s, at the old Whampoa Military Academy in Guangzhou; the speaker was a quite senior PLA officer; I was somewhat amazed at the very real affection he expressed for the notion of Zhou, Dr Sun and Chiang working together for China. He, correctly, blamed Chiang and the Kuomintang for starting civil war in 1927 but I recall that he described Chiang as an ideologue and fool rather than as a traitor.

 

[JLB50]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/election-interference-china-trudeau-nsira-nsicop-1.6803018

Looks like the Privy Council Office may end up restricting the upcoming foreign interference probe (whose people already have security clearances) from getting vital information. Stillborn at birth, I ask?

 

[JLB50]

With many defence analysts saying that China will probably invade Taiwan in the next 2-5 years, it has me wondering what form of invasion it may take. Or maybe I should ask if some of you feel it won’t happen at all.

If it were to happen, would it likely be a sudden blitzkrieg-style or D-Day style invasion from the mainland? Or would it be more along the lines of, say, China suddenly using its navy to bring about a total blockade of the island to starve it into submission, more along the lines of what the USSR attempted with its blockade of late 1940s Berlin or similar to what the U.S. did during the Cuban Missile Crisis? And would the U.S. necessarily use its military to come to the defence of Taiwan?

I realize I may have presented a whole range of suppositions and there may be others I haven’t yet thought of. Anyway, just wondering what the members here think.

 

[Halifax Tar]

With many defence analysts saying that China will probably invade Taiwan in the next 2-5 years, it has me wondering what form of invasion it may take. Or maybe I should ask if some of you feel it won’t happen at all.

If it were to happen, would it likely be a sudden blitzkrieg-style or D-Day style invasion from the mainland? Or would it be more along the lines of, say, China suddenly using its navy to bring about a total blockade of the island to starve it into submission, more along the lines of what the USSR attempted with its blockade of late 1940s Berlin or similar to what the U.S. did during the Cuban Missile Crisis? And would the U.S. necessarily use its military to come to the defence of Taiwan?

I realize I may have presented a whole range of suppositions and there may be others I haven’t yet thought of. Anyway, just wondering what the members here think.

A surprise massive Air, Naval and Cyber campaign to isolate the island and destroy any and all fixed and known defence emplacements and knock out all international communication ability.

Then a massive invasion WW2 style.

The west is caught flat footed by the speed and violence of the PRCs attack and eventually trys to fight its way through to break in and push back.

The possibility of the succes of the latter is questionable.

 

[GR66]

A surprise massive Air, Naval and Cyber campaign to isolate the island and destroy any and all fixed and known defence emplacements and knock out all international communication ability.

Then a massive invasion WW2 style.

The west is caught flat footed by the speed and violence of the PRCs attack and eventually trys to fight its way through to break in and push back.

The possibility of the succes of the latter is questionable.

I'd suggest that the possibility of success of the former is equally questionable as well. Airborne/Amphibious invasions are extremely difficult and risky. Especially against an enemy that is prepared/preparing for invasion. Taiwan has limited suitable landing beaches which I'm sure have lots of defences in place. Plus the island itself is a difficult target to take with large, dense urban areas as well as extremely mountainous terrain.

 

[Brad Sallows]

If China ever tries to invade Taiwan, I expect it's fleet-in-being to cease being.

Establishing a lodgement is a problem; supporting it is a greater problem. Dunkirk-style fishing boats landing supplies over the beach after the bulk carriers are wiped out isn't practical.

 

[Czech_pivo]

A surprise massive Air, Naval and Cyber campaign to isolate the island and destroy any and all fixed and known defence emplacements and knock out all international communication ability.

Then a massive invasion WW2 style.

The west is caught flat footed by the speed and violence of the PRCs attack and eventually trys to fight its way through to break in and push back.

The possibility of the succes of the latter is questionable.

Pick the US Inauguration Day - all focus will be on the planning/security of the event and those surrounding it. The new President will not yet be installed or fully in tune with their advisors, the processes/procedures and the sequence of what must occur in the correct order. Their Allies (not us) will not have had a chance to establish relations with the new administration and will be unsure of how much to support the US or how little to support them. Indecision and doubt will be the first order of business and that hesitation will be the death sentence of quickly and decisely countering the CCP actions and it will be the death sentence for Taiwan. Add to the mix, the Russians will then scramble large numbers of bombers/fighters over the Arctic to tie down US aircover over Alaska and Canada. The scrambling of their nuc subs from the White Sea will further tie down US and British air and sea assets.