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Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread

A good summary of what might lie ahead in 2024...

Canada must face the facts: China is now closed for business​


Charles Burton is a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, non-resident senior fellow of the European Values Center for Security Policy in Prague, and former diplomat at Canada’s embassy in Beijing.

For more than 40 years, Canada’s business-political complex of interests have yearned to cash in big time by getting privileged access to China’s enormous market and global economic heft. Now, with the nightmare of the Michaels Kovrig and Spavor well in the past, Canada could be tempted to resume old patterns of China relations.

However, it is important we don’t. Canada must face the facts: China is now closed for business.

2023 has afflicted China with alarming concerns, including deflation, a terrifying crash in real estate, falling domestic consumer demand, and youth unemployment so bad that Beijing simply stopped reporting it. Foreign investment plummeted as overseas investors pulled billions out of China, seeking better returns elsewhere. (Canada “suspended indefinitely” our involvement in China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.)

By November, anxious to reset the economic clock, Chinese leader Xi Jinping agreed to publicly meet U.S. President Joe Biden on the sidelines of a conference in San Francisco. News media around the world posted pictures of the two rivals shaking hands through terse smiles. The imagery fuelled hopes that Washington and Beijing would resolve tensions which had led the U.S. to slap painful tariffs and restrictions on Chinese imports, including bans on commodities associated with forced labour in China. Beijing particularly wanted the U.S. to remove export bans on sophisticated American high tech, especially computer chips.

But, six weeks after the California photo op, none of that is happening. During his visit, Mr. Xi also held a lavish banquet to convince U.S. business moguls that the time is right for reinvesting in China. That, too, fizzled; the billionaires weren’t buying Mr. Xi’s reassurances.

Canadian business and investors should not expect prospects with China to improve any time soon, for various reasons.

To mute domestic disgruntlement over the economy, Mr. Xi might play the nationalism card through military engagement in the South China Sea and Taiwan as soon as 2027. As well, the regime has been reaffirming its Leninist core through renewed predominance of state-controlled enterprise over successful capitalists, to the extent that large Chinese companies have developed PR plans to respond to sudden “disappearances” of their chief executives.

Foreign businesspeople embroiled in arbitrary commercial disputes are increasingly denied exit from China until they comply with demands from Chinese state counterparts. And there are ever more controls and restrictions on security of business data, including bans on foreign businesses in China sending information to servers outside the country.

Then there are growing concerns about China’s political stability, as evidenced by the purge in 2023 of the Foreign Minister, the Minister of Defence and a range of senior military figures. This can’t be good.


But even as Beijing scrambles to stabilize its foundations, the West cannot become smug. China is a superpower in full sprint to achieve global dominance on many fronts, from asserting control over vital international shipping lanes; to establishing unrivalled military capabilities on Earth and in space; to working with Russia and other like-minded anti-Western states by using disinformation campaigns and other interference schemes to support extremist, populist parties in countries from Argentina to the Netherlands – the crowning glory being the possible return to power of Donald Trump.

As for the Canadian government, 2024 will demand a tightrope walk of tact and strategy as it rebuilds vital planks of foreign policy. Events of the past year have left Ottawa with the complex task of rehabilitating economic and diplomatic relations with both China and India – two powerful adversaries with their own thorny relationship.

India will soon surpass China as the world’s most populous nation. It is critical that the West works much harder to keep India’s democracy from morphing into full alliance with the autocratic China-Russia-Iran axis.

For Canada, government and business need to collaborate with urgency to achieve greater integration into the Indian economy, in the process reducing our dependence on China. As the world clamours for Canadian critical minerals and energy resources, our response has been dismayingly weak. Ottawa must be much clearer on where Canada’s interests lie – to our long-term peril, if we don’t.

We seem to have come to the age of the “traditional” Chinese curse, “May you live in interesting times.” As a philosophy major at university in China long ago, I could never find the Chinese source for this saying. But, today, it applies to Canada as we enter 2024.

 

How well is Chinese weaponry performing in Russia?
How well are Chinese ammunition factories keeping up with demand?
Why did Russia place such a big order with North Korea when it has the support of China?

Inquiring minds want to know.
 
A good summary of what might lie ahead in 2024...

Canada must face the facts: China is now closed for business​


Charles Burton is a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, non-resident senior fellow of the European Values Center for Security Policy in Prague, and former diplomat at Canada’s embassy in Beijing.

For more than 40 years, Canada’s business-political complex of interests have yearned to cash in big time by getting privileged access to China’s enormous market and global economic heft. Now, with the nightmare of the Michaels Kovrig and Spavor well in the past, Canada could be tempted to resume old patterns of China relations.

However, it is important we don’t. Canada must face the facts: China is now closed for business.

2023 has afflicted China with alarming concerns, including deflation, a terrifying crash in real estate, falling domestic consumer demand, and youth unemployment so bad that Beijing simply stopped reporting it. Foreign investment plummeted as overseas investors pulled billions out of China, seeking better returns elsewhere. (Canada “suspended indefinitely” our involvement in China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.)

By November, anxious to reset the economic clock, Chinese leader Xi Jinping agreed to publicly meet U.S. President Joe Biden on the sidelines of a conference in San Francisco. News media around the world posted pictures of the two rivals shaking hands through terse smiles. The imagery fuelled hopes that Washington and Beijing would resolve tensions which had led the U.S. to slap painful tariffs and restrictions on Chinese imports, including bans on commodities associated with forced labour in China. Beijing particularly wanted the U.S. to remove export bans on sophisticated American high tech, especially computer chips.

But, six weeks after the California photo op, none of that is happening. During his visit, Mr. Xi also held a lavish banquet to convince U.S. business moguls that the time is right for reinvesting in China. That, too, fizzled; the billionaires weren’t buying Mr. Xi’s reassurances.

Canadian business and investors should not expect prospects with China to improve any time soon, for various reasons.

To mute domestic disgruntlement over the economy, Mr. Xi might play the nationalism card through military engagement in the South China Sea and Taiwan as soon as 2027. As well, the regime has been reaffirming its Leninist core through renewed predominance of state-controlled enterprise over successful capitalists, to the extent that large Chinese companies have developed PR plans to respond to sudden “disappearances” of their chief executives.

Foreign businesspeople embroiled in arbitrary commercial disputes are increasingly denied exit from China until they comply with demands from Chinese state counterparts. And there are ever more controls and restrictions on security of business data, including bans on foreign businesses in China sending information to servers outside the country.

Then there are growing concerns about China’s political stability, as evidenced by the purge in 2023 of the Foreign Minister, the Minister of Defence and a range of senior military figures. This can’t be good.


But even as Beijing scrambles to stabilize its foundations, the West cannot become smug. China is a superpower in full sprint to achieve global dominance on many fronts, from asserting control over vital international shipping lanes; to establishing unrivalled military capabilities on Earth and in space; to working with Russia and other like-minded anti-Western states by using disinformation campaigns and other interference schemes to support extremist, populist parties in countries from Argentina to the Netherlands – the crowning glory being the possible return to power of Donald Trump.

As for the Canadian government, 2024 will demand a tightrope walk of tact and strategy as it rebuilds vital planks of foreign policy. Events of the past year have left Ottawa with the complex task of rehabilitating economic and diplomatic relations with both China and India – two powerful adversaries with their own thorny relationship.

India will soon surpass China as the world’s most populous nation. It is critical that the West works much harder to keep India’s democracy from morphing into full alliance with the autocratic China-Russia-Iran axis.

For Canada, government and business need to collaborate with urgency to achieve greater integration into the Indian economy, in the process reducing our dependence on China. As the world clamours for Canadian critical minerals and energy resources, our response has been dismayingly weak. Ottawa must be much clearer on where Canada’s interests lie – to our long-term peril, if we don’t.

We seem to have come to the age of the “traditional” Chinese curse, “May you live in interesting times.” As a philosophy major at university in China long ago, I could never find the Chinese source for this saying. But, today, it applies to Canada as we enter 2024.


China is one of the most disappointing parts on my business and global outlooks in my life.

Years ago I jumped on the bandwagon and bought into the idea that you don't go to war with people you trade with and prosperity from some freedom with lead to even more freedom. I have travelled to China many times, set up JV.,Met great people saw the economic explosion. Business was cut throat, lightening fast and fun. I went on team Canada trips in the 5 star hotels but also stayed in regular for the Chinese hotels. The problem is most people did not do that (I'm looked at you Ottawa pols) you saw the China they wanted you see the China the PM loves. But their was still an undercurrent that was felt not all is well. At first I thought that's OK they are just growing so fast things like culture take more time etc.

Interesting story my China guy (a Chinese expat I hired and moved back) called me and told me to change everything because we had to have dinner with the big CCP boss (assistant Shanghai mayor CCP dude) big guy but my Canadian attitude to politicians did not help here. In the end I did the dinner and speech. But wow. I had to move everyone change flights have my costumer very mad at me because he had to come too. He never did forgive me about it. Because him not being there would make his company lose face.

Anyways after many trips much money we pulled out and it was all for the best as we were able to recover our costs just with the land sale. But today we would not be so lucky.

I feel for the people I meant and the changes they will have to endure.

It was great to see the millions that did get pulled out of poverty and move to middle class and better lifestyle.

Here is the thing and I think the important question for us. Is the current direction let's call it the reversal from a few years ago always going to happen or because of Xi and his faction?

Because that I think is a fundamental answer to how we move forward with China.
 
China is one of the most disappointing parts on my business and global outlooks in my life.

Years ago I jumped on the bandwagon and bought into the idea that you don't go to war with people you trade with and prosperity from some freedom with lead to even more freedom. I have travelled to China many times, set up JV.,Met great people saw the economic explosion. Business was cut throat, lightening fast and fun. I went on team Canada trips in the 5 star hotels but also stayed in regular for the Chinese hotels. The problem is most people did not do that (I'm looked at you Ottawa pols) you saw the China they wanted you see the China the PM loves. But their was still an undercurrent that was felt not all is well. At first I thought that's OK they are just growing so fast things like culture take more time etc.

Interesting story my China guy (a Chinese expat I hired and moved back) called me and told me to change everything because we had to have dinner with the big CCP boss (assistant Shanghai mayor CCP dude) big guy but my Canadian attitude to politicians did not help here. In the end I did the dinner and speech. But wow. I had to move everyone change flights have my costumer very mad at me because he had to come too. He never did forgive me about it. Because him not being there would make his company lose face.

Anyways after many trips much money we pulled out and it was all for the best as we were able to recover our costs just with the land sale. But today we would not be so lucky.

I feel for the people I meant and the changes they will have to endure.

It was great to see the millions that did get pulled out of poverty and move to middle class and better lifestyle.

Here is the thing and I think the important question for us. Is the current direction let's call it the reversal from a few years ago always going to happen or because of Xi and his faction?

Because that I think is a fundamental answer to how we move forward with China.

I know a guy who lost $5M in a JV with a Chinese company. The Chinese guy just went back to China with all the money and western investors were just SOL. No recourse to legal action, of course.

I imagine that playing out at a national level and am not surprised China is deep in the hurt locker.
 
A friend formerly in a formerly large tech company set up a JV to manufacture their latest and greatest product lines, which were, shortly before the line opened, cloned and sold barely above cost (but when you're not carrying the R&D costs, still very profitable). Oddly enough, it appeared that the partners in the JV were also respite for the white box facility.
 

Attachments


How well is Chinese weaponry performing in Russia?
How well are Chinese ammunition factories keeping up with demand?
Why did Russia place such a big order with North Korea when it has the support of China?

Inquiring minds want to know.

Further to....


  • China missiles filled with water, not fuel: US intelligence
  • Xi seeking to root out corruption, prepare military for combat

That is the high tech end of the Chinese spectrum.
The low tech end may be no better.

 
The lowest cost bidder paradigm has made America over reliant on China for critical minerals, it seems...

China Dominates the Supply of U.S. Critical Minerals List​



<A bar chart showing China’s share of U.S. imports on the country's critical minerals list.
 
It is not like there is any sort of technology that would make mining in Canada cost effective and productive, regardless of labour costs…
My nephew is a maintenance guy at a gold mine in the Yukon. If you can build a gold mine I am sure you can build other mines.

I am sure if we eject a certain few numbskulls in Ottawa and replace them with people who actually know stuff about mining we can figure this out.
 
It is not like there is any sort of technology that would make mining in Canada cost effective and productive, regardless of labour costs…

Coincidentally, this came out a couple of days ago... more pleading from the mining sector:


‘Generational’ opportunity for B.C. hangs in balance: mining industry leader​

Mining Association of British Columbia’s Michael Goehring calls for shorter permitting times

A “generational opportunity” to build wealth for all parts of B.C. and meet its climate change goals through the mining of critical minerals “hangs in the balance,” according to an industry leader.

The provincial government is currently developing a strategy to mine critical minerals such as copper and nickel among others needed for green technologies like batteries for zero-emission vehicles, solar panels and wind turbines.

The federal government considers 31 minerals to be critical with 16 and found or produced in British Columbia.

Michael Goehring, president and chief executive officer of the Mining Association of British Columbia, said that strategy is going to determine whether B.C. is able to be a “leading global supplier of responsibly produced critical minerals or not.”

He made that comment against that backdrop of a study, which the association had commissioned assessing the economic impact of 14 proposed critical mineral mines and two proposed extensions of existing mines. According to the study, each of the 16 mines would generate $24.8 billion during their respective average life span of just over 24.

According to the study, the mines would generate $9.6 billion in taxes for all levels of government and 80 per cent of the economic benefits would stay in British Columbia with all corners of B.C. including northern and rural regions set to benefit.

Geography has given what Goehring called a “comparative advantage” and critical minerals offer British Columbians a “generational opportunity.”

But if B.C. is to realize this opportunity, the province must have a “competitive fiscal and regulatory policy framework” to attract the investment that is necessary to grow and sustain the sector, Goehring said.

“Currently, B.C. and Canada has a reputation as a high-cost jurisdiction, where it’s difficult to get projects done,” he said. “Currently, B.C. lags behind other Canadian jurisdictions like Ontario and Quebec, where they have launched and funded strategies to attract investment in their critical mineral sectors.”

 

China’s looming decline could be a threat to the world​



The Communist Party’s incompetence has worsened a continuing demographic catastrophe in China, undermining hopes for its future.

The world faces a threat, not from a rising, powerful China, but from a China that is disaffected and in inevitable decline.

The National Bureau of Statistics reported Tuesday that China’s population had decreased in 2023 by about two million people, more than twice as many as the previous year’s drop of 850,000.

Only half as many babies were born last year as were born in 2016. Yi Fuxian, a demographer and scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, estimates that at its current total fertility rate of about one child per woman – less than half the 2.1 children per woman needed to keep a population stable – China’s population will collapse from 1.4 billion people today to about one billion in 2050 and 390 million by 2100.

By his reckoning, China’s share of the global population could decline from 22 per cent in 1980 to 11 per cent in 2050 and only 4 per cent in 2100. ........... <snip>
China faces the bleak prospect in which fewer people enter the work force each year than entered it the year before, even as the number of older people grows, along with their health care and pension needs. Such a combination is a surefire recipe for economic stagnation.

It could also lead to growing social unrest. Will Beijing be able to contain an increasingly discontented population? Or will it look to divert their attention, perhaps by attempting to invade Taiwan?

World peace could be threatened, not by China’s rise, but by China’s fall.

The wounded dragon scenario. I believe they culminated a few years ago, and the tacit agreement or compact between the people and the CCP that the Chinese people would exchange increasing prosperity for decreasing freedom is no longer valid.....
 
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