Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread

[a_majoor]

Some ulterior motives are in play as well.

The Obama Administration is trying to shut Canada out of the proposed Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) Free Trade area, so Canada has been reaching out to the various putative member states of the TPP and seeking bilateral agreements to do an end run around the Administration. If enough of the various bilateral agreements are reached, then at some future date it will be a simple matter to enter the TPP as a full partner.

From China's side, encouraging Canadian Free Trade opens up Canada's vast natural resource treasure box for Chinese exploitation (and make no mistake, if they can get away with it they will flood "their" Canadian projects with Chinese workers and work to Chinese standards). As a secondary objective, it encourages a wedge between Canada and the United States, and makes another, low risk/low cost way to thumb their noses at American power and weaken the Western alliance structure. I can envision Chinese "suggestions" and special offers every time something like the softwood lumber dispute or Keystone XL comes up in the future to weaken American bargaining positions and stroke the latent anti Americanism in Canada with some shot term "wins" for Canadian companies and industries.

So long as we keep the potential drawbacks in mind, and work carefully around them, a Chinese free trade deal would provide a huge new market for our industries, and operate to our mutual benefit.

 

[a_majoor]

Chinese activists vs the censors:

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/06/06/numbers-conspire-to-mark-tiananmen-massacre-and-outwit-chinas-censors/

Numbers conspire to mark Tiananmen massacre — and outwit China’s censors
Araminta Wordsworth  Jun 6, 2012 – 9:33 AM ET | Last Updated: Jun 5, 2012 2:34 PM ET

Today: There’s never a dull moment for Chinese censors, always standing on guard to protect citizens from the wrong information.

They never know where their next crisis will come from.

Last year, they were blindsided by Tunisia’s Jasmine Revolution, part of the Arab Spring, which led to the word “jasmine” being blocked in Internet searches. Also caught up in the ban: video of Premier Hun Jintao singing a popular folksong about the fragrant white flower, while jasmine sellers in Beijing found their livelihood threatened.

Despite their best efforts, the censors can be caught napping — even when the date is a predictable flashpoint, like the 23rd anniversary of Tiananmen Square. In this case, the unlikely culprit was the Shanghai Stock Exchange, which seemed to mark the day by going into a nosedive.

Reporting for The Associated Press, Elaine Kurtenbach explains what happened.

In an unlikely coincidence certainly unwelcome to China’s communist rulers, the stock benchmark fell 64.89 points Monday, matching the numbers of the June 4, 1989 crackdown in the heart of Beijing.

In China’s lively microblog world, “Shanghai Composite Index” soon joined the many words blocked by censors.
In another odd twist, the index opened Monday at 2,346.98. That is being interpreted as 23rd anniversary of the June 4, 1989 crackdown when read from right to left.

Public discussion of the Tiananmen crackdown, which the Communist Party branded a “counterrevolutionary riot,” remains taboo. Analysts refused to comment on the numbers.

Peter Ford at the Christian Science Monitor says the official blanket denial of the date has worked to a large extent.

Few ordinary Chinese citizens under the age of 30 are aware of the Tiananmen demonstrations or their tragic end. But censors remain determined to foil any attempt by people who do know what happened to say anything about it. Anything at all. Censors at Sina Weibo, the popular Twitter-like social media platform, were working overtime to block searches for – or references to – “6.4” or other obvious signifiers such as “tank,” “crush,” “never forget,” and “square.”

“535” was a forbidden term, too, because Internet users have taken to referring to May 35,  instead of June 4. Classically minded censors wouldn’t let you post anything with VIIIIXVIIV in it either, in case readers familiar with Roman numerals could decipher 89.6.4. And by late afternoon, even the word “today” had been banned.
Chinese culture puts a strong, sometimes superstitious emphasis on numbers and dates. The number “four” (si in Mandarin) is considered unlucky because it is similar to the word for “death” (si, but with a different tone). Eight on the other hand is propitious because it sounds like the word for “wealth.” As Keith Bradsher of The New York Times observes,

The Beijing Olympics started at 8:08 p.m. on Aug. 8, 2008, a time and date chosen for the many “eights” — considered an auspicious number.

Even 23 years later, the use of tanks and gunfire to disperse unarmed students and other in Tiananmen Square protesters remains a point of considerable acrimony in China and around the world.

Security measures are tightened in China each year for the anniversary while dissidents and former Chinese officials periodically give their versions of what happened.

The suspension of a populist leader, Bo Xilai, from the Politburo this spring and a subsequent series of reports of factional infighting and military manoeuvres to prevent any attempt at a coup has underlined this year how tightly held power still is in China.

Sometimes though the censors are overruled, as seems to have been the case with an editorial in the Global Times — the Fox News of China — that argues for a “proper” level of corruption, says The Atlantic magazine’s Helen Gao.

In the airtight Chinese print media world, where officials wield the power to splash the same headline across many newspaper front pages or to keep a taboo subject out of even obscure one-line advertisements, editorials are usually painless scratches over petty social occurrences. One would not expect them to engage their millions of readers on a controversial subject. But that’s exactly what Global Times, circulation two million, did when it addressed Chinese government corruption. With one unsigned editorial, the paper sparked a heated, if apparently unintended, debate on a sensitive topic that is usually a no-go zone for such large, public discussions.

The tabloid newspaper, owned and published by party mouthpiece People’s Daily, dropped a bomb with its editorial last week titled “Fighting Corruption Is a Strenuous Battle in China’s Social Development.”
It argues that corruption exists in all countries, including China, which will not be able to eliminate it any more than can any other country. Rather, it says, the key is to contain corruption to a level that citizens will accept.
compiled by Araminta Wordsworth
[email protected]

 

[Sythen]

the Fox News of China

What does that even mean?

 

[Edward Campbell]

Here is some news about China's space programme from the Globe and Mail, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/china-announces-plan-for-manned-space-launch-this-month/article4244417/

China announces plan for manned space launch this month

The Associated Press
Published Saturday, Jun. 09 2012

China will launch astronauts this month to dock for the first time with an orbiting experimental module, the country’s space program announced Saturday.

A rocket carrying the Shenzhou 9 spacecraft was moved to a launch pad in China’s desert northwest in preparation for the mid-June flight, according to an unidentified space program spokesman cited by the official Xinhua News Agency.

Xinhua said earlier the flight will carry three astronauts who will dock with and live in the Tiangong 1 orbital module.

China’s space program has made steady progress since a 2003 launch that made it only the third nation to put a man in space on its own. Two more manned missions have followed, one including a space walk.

China completed its first space rendezvous last year when the unmanned Shenzhou 8 docked with the Tiangong 1 by remote control.

China has scheduled two space docking missions for this year and plans to complete a manned space station around 2020 to replace Tiangong 1. At about 60 tons, the Chinese station will be considerably smaller than the 16-nation International Space Station.

Beijing launched its independent space station program after being turned away from the International Space Station, largely due to U.S. objections. Washington is wary of the Chinese program’s military links and of sharing technology with an economic and political rival.

In fairness, in 1993, when the ISS was announced as a major international, including Canada, project, the Chinese space program was still taking "baby steps," the first of the Shenzhou series of spacecraft - designed for manned space flight - was not launched until 1999, after assembly of the ISS had begun. China had, de facto, too little to offer the ISS partners. But in March of this year the five ISS partners (Canada, European Space Agency, Japan, Russia and USA) did open the door for cooperation with China and India.

 

[Edward Campbell]

There's an interesting article in the Globe and Mail, by its Beijing correspondent Mark MacKinnon, entitled A 21st-century checklist of the new autocrats. MacKinnon groups a batch of current (and just recenly passed) regimes in four categories:

1. False Democrats - people/regimes like Puntin's Russia and Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas;

2. Mad Egotists like Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Uzbekistan's Islam Karimov;

3. Violent Populists - Zimbabwe's Mugabe and Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez; and

4. Callous Capitalists - in which he includes the Communist Party of China (Deng Xiaoping era to present) and the House of Saud.

I like his catchy phrases but I think he, like most people, gets China wrong.

The Chinese are capitalists, of a sort and they certainly appear calous, but I think MacKinnon (and most Westerners) are looking "through a glass, darkly." Our problem is that 2,500 years of Western/Greco-Roman/Anglo-Saxon-Scandanavian/Anglo-American culture makes us see both capitalism and callousness in a very specific way, a way that is focused on the individual and his (her) "inalienable rights." The Chinese however have just as long a cultural tradition (Confucian ethics) that is quite differently focused: on filial responsibility, 'family values' (but not of the sort imagined by the modern Christian right) and virtue. Thus, I doubt that Deng or Hu would describe themselves or the Chinese system as "capitalist" ~ entrepreneurial, perhaps, market based, certainly, but not capitalist as you and I, and Mark MacKinnon understand it. Equally, Hu Jintao, almost certainly, does not regard himself, his immediate predecessors or his colleagues as being "callous." They might, now and again, have to use all the "tools of power" at their disposal to keep their system operating in a "harmonious" manner but that is, in their minds, more like a father or elder brother correcting a wayward youngster - teaching him or her the values of the family, the community and, indeed, China.

The Chinese practice a form of conservatism that is as deeply rooted in their culture and our liberalism is in ours.

 

[GAP]

might, now and again, have to use all the "tools of power" at their disposal to keep their system operating in a "harmonious" manner but that is, in their minds, more like a father or elder brother correcting a wayward youngster - teaching him or her the values of the family, the community and, indeed, China.

And they are not wimps about using it, unlike our western leaders. They are not in the race to be liked, only to have and exercise the power......

 

[Edward Campbell]

And they are not wimps about using it, unlike our western leaders. They are not in the race to be liked, only to have and exercise the power......

They are trying to restore a system of government that is, itself, far older than modern, liberal democracy: government by a meritocracy. This was/is part of the Confucian ideal and it was attempted in many, arguably in most, of the 20 or dynasties that followed the Spring and Autumn Period (771-476 BC) when Confucius wrote his four books & Five Classics. The fact that no one ever succeeded in developing (or, at least, sustaining) a self-replicating meritocracy doesn't mean the current Chinese leadership doesn't think it is a good idea, indeed, even a noble goal.

 

[Kalatzi]

China not focus of Asis Pacific rebalancing spokesman says

link here http://battleland.blogs.time.com/2012/06/06/george-orwell-call-your-office/

Honest to god - I'm not making this up.
Department of Truth anyone?

 

[sean m]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QQkmVbf2k4&feature=plcp

Similar to 18th century Britain's coaling stations, as Mr. Kaplan points out. What are your Thoughts?

 

[sean m]

China's race for resources and what it means

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3fT0M9n2QJU&feature=plcp

Interesting indeed.

 

[Ignatius J. Reilly]

China's race for resources and what it means

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3fT0M9n2QJU&feature=plcp

Quite a lot of simple sociology wrapped up in grandiose terms that were droned on and on.
Any might well do well to read the classics: Sun Tzu being one.
Sure, it was overlooked for quite some time, and has had a recent resurgence, but the fact remains the indirect approach prevails above all else.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Quite a lot of simple sociology wrapped up in grandiose terms that were droned on and on.
Any might well do well to read the classics: Sun Tzu being one.
Sure, it was overlooked for quite some time, and has had a recent resurgence, but the fact remains the indirect approach prevails above all else.

:goodpost:

Dambisa Moyo is a good economist and she has some good insights but t is important, indeed vital to understand what China is doing, how and, above all, why. The Chinese are, as Moyo advocated (a couple of years ago) that they should, investing in the third world: it's not charity, it's not aid, neither of which have helped Africa, it's an investment. And what do we (and they, the Chinese) expect from our investments? A return on investment, that's what. The Chinese are in this for the mid to long term; they will forgo immediate/near term profits in order secure a good medium and long term ROI. It (investment rather than "aid") is, in my opinion what Africa and Latin America need in order to get (largely crooked and almost always inept) governments out and greedy capitalists - especially small, local capitalists - in.

But: the Chinese are doing what they are doing for China, not for Sudan or Brazil.

 

[Edward Campbell]

There is a very interesting article in the Globe and Mail headlined Democracies should not be fooled by the oligarchies. The article reports on a speech that Michael Ignatieff gave, earlier this month, in Riga, Latvia. Ignatieff told his audience: "... that “history has no libretto.” It isn’t marching toward any particular destination, including liberal democracy ... “It is a cliché of optimistic Western discourse on Russia and China that they must evolve toward democratic liberty ..." [and] “The simple point is that we thought they were coming toward us. What if they are not?”

I think:

1. Prof. Ignatieff's warning is well taken - neither China nor Russia are "coming toward us;"

2. Russia and China are not "marching" in the same direction ~ they cannot because they have distinctly different histories and cultures, different from each other and very different from us; and

3. China wants to "march" towards a self-sustaining meritocratic government, it will, eventually and if necessary, adopt some, maybe even many of the trappings of conservative democracies like Singapore.

Western, liberal democracy is as foreign to China and Taoism is to us ... China is a Confucian culture ~ very conservative, there are few liberal impulses.

 

[Ignatius J. Reilly]

I think:

1. Prof. Ignatieff's warning is well taken - neither China nor Russia are "coming toward us;"

2. Russia and China are not "marching" in the same direction ~ they cannot because they have distinctly different histories and cultures, different from each other and very different from us; and

3. China wants to "march" towards a self-sustaining meritocratic government, it will, eventually and if necessary, adopt some, maybe even many of the trappings of conservative democracies like Singapore.

Western, liberal democracy is as foreign to China as Taoism is to us ... China is a Confucian culture ~ very conservative, there are few liberal impulses.

I agree with all three of your points, and the conclusion even more so.
It has been quite difficult, I would argue, to maintain such few &  fleeting liberal impulses in a country that historically has comprised several very populous nations long at odds with each other, coupled with the ever present threat of foreign incursions. Not even to mention the bloated population.
Democracy? I think in perhaps the next generation this will happen. The mandarins in Beijing (pun intended) are no doubt acutely aware of the recent episodes in the only truly functioning democracy in Chinese history.  Namely, that of the Republic of Taiwan. Sorry, I meant "Chinese Taipei", or better yet, "The Renegade Province". The trickle on down of not only the right to vote, but the right to choose a product to consume.

 

[a_majoor]

If China is having this much difficulty pulling Hong Kong into the orbit, imagine how much more difficult it will be to absorb Taiwan (or to apply Influence Activity to ethnic Chinese abroad)?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/hong-kongers-resist-pressure-to-identify-with-motherland/2012/06/28/gJQATAge8V_print.html

Hong Kongers resist pressure to identify with ‘motherland’
By Andrew Higgins, Published: June 28

hong kong — As Hong Kong prepares to mark the 15th anniversary of its return to Chinese rule with celebratory fireworks and also angry street protests, Cheung Kwok-wah, a senior education bureau official, is grappling with a particularly sensitive task: how to teach students in this former British colony to identify more with China.

“It is not an easy issue,” acknowledged Cheung, whose efforts to develop a new school curriculum to promote greater awareness of and identification with the “motherland” have stirred howls of protest from educators, the Roman Catholic Church and pro-democracy activists fearful of Communist Party “brainwashing.”

Hong Kong returned to Chinese rule on July 1, 1997, under a formula known as “one country, two systems” and has retained wide-ranging liberties that make it China’s freest city by far. While few here mourn the end of British colonialism, Hong Kong and Beijing have starkly different views of what it means to be part of China.

The gulf will be on display beginning on Friday when Communist Party leader Hu Jintao is due to make a tightly choreographed and heavily policed visit to attend anniversary festivities and the swearing in on Sunday of Leung Chun-ying, a prosperous land surveyor, as Hong Kong’s new leader, or chief executive — and tens of thousands of locals are expected to take to the street in protest.

Though increasingly intertwined economically with the rest of China, Hong Kong, according to a recent opinion poll, now has less trust in the central government in Beijing than at any time since the 1997 handover. Suspicion runs so deep that when Chinese military vehicles were sighted earlier this month on busy streets during a routine rotation of forces, local newspapers and Internet sites responded with warnings that Beijing is moving in extra muscle to confront protesters in the event of trouble during Hu’s visit. A spokesman for the People’s Liberation Army dismissed this as “rubbish.” Hong Kong’s head of security assured residents that local police are responsible for law and order and do not need help from the PLA.

Mood of mistrust

This mood of mistrust has also engulfed plans by the education bureau to introduce mandatory courses in schools on “moral and national education.” First proposed in 2010 and due to include lessons on Chinese government bodies and the correct etiquette for raising the national flag, the program ran into a storm of criticism during public consultations and was recently revised to give teachers more leeway on what topics they cover. Originally due to start in some schools later this year, the courses have now been put off for a year.

“The Communist Party puts an equal sign between itself and China,” said Fung Wai Wah, president of the Hong Kong Professional Teachers’ Union, which opposes “national education” teaching. Fung said he identifies with China but not its ruling Communist Party, whose rule his parents — like many other residents here — fled to Hong Kong to escape. “We suspect they are trying to brainwash our students,” he said, noting that the Party frequently deploys nationalism to silence critics.

Identity has become one of the most sensitive issues in Hong Kong, a largely autonomous “special administrative region” where around 95 percent of the population is ethnically Chinese and feels great pride in Chinese culture and history but also prizes the liberties and rule of law that separate their city from the rest of the country.

A public opinion survey released this week by Hong Kong University showed that Hong Kong residents increasingly identify themselves as “Hong Kongers” rather than “Chinese,” with only 18 percent of those surveyed choosing “Chinese” as their primary identity. More than 45 percent of those polled said they see themselves as “Hong Kongers,” up from 34 percent in a poll conducted in August 1997 just after Britain pulled out. Identification with Hong Kong rather than China is particularly strong among young people, the survey showed.

The results will disappoint Beijing, whose representative office in Hong Kong responded with fury early this year to an earlier round of polling that first drew attention to shrinking attachment to the People’s Republic of China. Party-controlled media outlets launched a vitriolic campaign of denunciation against Robert Chung, the head of Hong Kong University’s Public Opinion Programme, accusing him of seeking to split Hong Kong from the rest of China and even foment a separatist movement akin to those in Tibet and the restive Muslim region of Xinjiang. Chung denied any such intention.

Frictions between Hong Kong residents and mainlanders have risen sharply as millions have flocked into Hong Kong from the rest of China for short visits, mostly for shopping and tourism but sometimes to give birth and thus obtain Hong Kong residency rights for their children. Last year, about 28 million mainlanders visited Hong Kong, a city of just 7 million. Fearful of being swamped, anti-mainland campaigners took out newspaper advertisements earlier this year denouncing their compatriots from across the border as “locusts.” A Peking University professor also stoked passions by reviling Hong Kong residents as “dogs” in thrall to British co­lo­ni­al­ism.

‘A lonely island’

Cheung, the education official, said frictions don’t reflect a deep divide but are the natural result of decades of separation from and ignorance of the rest of China. Under colonial rule, he said, Hong Kong was presented in schools as “a lonely island” disconnected from China. “National education” doesn’t aim to diminish Hong Kong’s own identity, he added, but only to teach students about the country to which they belong: “We are now part of China so we need to know about China.”

Under British rule, which began in 1841 at the end of the First Opium War, Hong Kong schools mostly avoided teaching about contemporary China, confining the study of Chinese history to periods before the 1949 communist revolution and downplaying topics that might stir Chinese nationalism. Mainland schools, in contrast, have for years put nationalism at the center of education, presenting the Party as the only true vehicle for China’s national aspirations.

Beijing officials have no formal say in Hong Kong education but have cheered its “national education” plans, expressing hope that greater knowledge of China, particularly of the suffering it endured at the hands of Britain and other colonial powers in the 19th century, will reduce Hong Kongers’ wariness of China’s current system. “If you don’t have such knowledge, you will find it difficult to understand why China chose the way of socialism in 1949,” Wang Guangya, the head of Beijing’s Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office, said during a visit here last summer.

The Party’s critics also believe Hong Kong needs to learn more about China, but they focus not on the humiliations of colonialism but on Hong Kong’s long tradition as an incubator for ideas banned on the mainland. Sun Yat-sen, the leader of the 1911 revolution that toppled the Qing dynasty, used Hong Kong to rally support and funding for his revolutionary cause, as did early Communist Party leaders such as Zhou Enlai, who took refuge here in the 1920s. Today, Hong Kong remains a center for dissent, publishing books and magazines that are banned elsewhere in China and providing a haven for dissidents.

“If we don’t speak out on what is bad in China we will be sacrificing the long role of Hong Kong in China’s democratic development,” said Lee Cheuk-yan, a local legislator and head of a group that organizes an annual candle-light vigil to commemorate those who died during the People Liberation Army’s 1989 assault on Tiananmen Square in Beijing. This year’s vigil drew roughly 180,000 people, the biggest turnout yet, according to organizers.

Lee said he has no problem with “national education” in principle but “it depends on who is teaching and what.”

Born across the border, Lee came to Hong Kong as a small child when his family fled the Communists. “We are not anti-Communist because we don’t know about China. . . . We have first-hand experience,” he said.

Lee worries that Hong Kong authorities, under pressure from Beijing, now want to “brainwash people to identify with the successes of China but not with its problems. They want to brainwash student into supporting the Party.”

Cheung of the Education Bureau strongly denied any such intent, saying “national education” does not aim to promote loyalty but “critical thinking and moral values.” Curriculum guidelines, he said, call for discussion of controversial topics, not just feel-good stories about China. “There are no taboo issues,” Cheung said.

 

[Edward Campbell]

A very smart lady, named Anson Chan, who used to be the head civil servant in British colonial Hong Kong, quipped, about 15 years ago, that, eventually, China would have to join Hong Kong, not vice versa. What she meant is that it is China, not Hong Kong, that needs to change in order to survive in the 21st century. She talks about China's Achilles heels: corruption and nepotism; until those are tackled China will be a feeble giant while Hong Kong will still be an aggressive tiger.

 

[a_majoor]

More signs to be worried about Chinese economic figures. The various metrics are not adding up (economic growth even as raw materials are piling up and coastal shipping is displaced looking for cargos?), and on other sites there are equally disjointed figures for electrical consumption and material outputs. The disturbing implications are two fold: many people are "betting" on China to continue its rapid economic growth and drive the global economy; and, the population of China may experience massive economic dislocations leading to unrest:

http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/07/09/deflation-coming-to-china-brace-yourself-america/

Deflation Coming to China? Brace Yourself, America

The Chinese economy can’t seem to catch a break these days. Two years ago, analysts—along with the Chinese government—were concerned about overheating and runaway inflation. For the past couple years, there’s been an equal but opposite worry that China has reached the beginning of the end of the long period of rapid growth.

Via Meadia is less concerned about a temporary Chinese slowdown, whether the landing is “hard” or “soft” than we are about the prospect for a phase change in Chinese growth — a secular slowdown in growth as the Japan-style export led strategy reaches natural limits. But the short term fate of China’s economy has a lot of influence over what happens in the rest of the world given our shaky circumstances right now. And China watcher Evan Osnos offers some sobering observations in the New Yorker:

Already, Nike says that its Chinese stockrooms are piling up with inventory. Similar complaints are coming in from McDonald’s, Caterpillar, and Procter & Gamble Co. Within China, the stakes of a slowdown are high as well: for half a century, political scientists have recognized that political unrest does not tend to erupt in places that are most deprived; it hits when a pattern of rising growth and expectations abruptly stops. And that is Beijing’s worst fear. [...]

There is a slowdown in steel and copper production, the first layoffs in a decade by manufacturers of construction equipment, and electricity production, which usually grows faster than the economy, grew by just 0.7 per cent in April, suggesting to those inclined to see it that growth may have flatlined. There are physical signs, too: coal and iron ore and other commodities are piling up at Chinese ports, and the huge fleet of coastal ships that usually move them around have been forced to venture beyond the Chinese seaboard, sailing out to look for new business—the freight equivalent of deer wandering out of the woods in search of food. Because it materialized out of the shadows, shipping people have it named the “ghost” fleet.

On top of all this comes today’s news that China may actually be headed for a period of deflation. According to the New York Times, consumer prices dropped 0.6 percent last month, one of the largest such drops in years. Coming on the heels of months of anemic growth, this has many worried:

Producer prices, measured at the factory gate, were down 2.1 percent in June compared to a year earlier, and down 0.7 percent in June compared with May. Those prices had started to weaken late last summer, about six months before consumer prices began eroding. [...]

A few economists are starting to ask whether China could face deflation, a sometimes intractable condition of falling prices that can become self-reinforcing, as Japan has found over the past two decades.

This deflation has not yet reached alarming proportions, but the alarm bells will be going off in Beijing if it continues much longer. Look for China to fight any signs of deflation with vigorous stimulus measures; short term, at least, that could be good for the rest of the world.

 

[a_majoor]

Odd social issue. With China's population demographically skewed towards males due to the "one child" policy, it is hard to understand why the available women are not being snapped up right away:

http://news.yahoo.com/chinas-unwanted-single-women-feel-pressure-061239813.html

China's 'unwanted' single women feel the pressure
AFPBy Virginie Mangin | AFP – Thu, Jul 19, 2012


    Women are seen talking at a singles club in Beijing. A 2010 survey showed that there were 180 million single men and women in China -- out of a population of 1.3 billion people -- and that 92 percent of men questioned believed that a woman should be married before the age of 27


Xu, a pretty woman in her 30s, warily walked into a Beijing singles club in a bid to shed her status as one of China's "Unwanted".

Xu had not been to the "Garden of Joy" for more than a year but, with time and societal judgement weighing heavily on her, she returned with cautious hopes.

"I hope to find a husband," she said, as she sat in front of a Mahjong table and awaited her date for the evening, who had been hand-picked for her by the club based on their profiles.

"I just want someone with whom I share things in common, but who is also in a better financial situation than me."

Xu, who did not want to be identified, is one of China's so-called "Sheng Nu".

The term, which translates to the "Unwanted", is derived from a phenomenon in Chinese society which affects hundreds of thousands of women, particularly the urban, educated and financially independent.

The term, which is unique to China and which only applies to women, appears in China's official dictionary and refers to "all single woman above the age of 27".

Twenty-six-year-old Summer was at the Garden of Joy for the first time, desperate to meet a man before she hit the dreaded cut-off age.

"Nothing in the world will allow me to become a Sheng Nu," she said, lamenting that for many men in China youthful looks count for a lot.

"Men don't want a woman over 30. It's important for them that she's still pretty."

A widely publicised survey in 2010 by the government-backed All China Women's Federation proved the new social phenomenon beyond doubt.

The survey showed that there were 180 million single men and women in China -- out of a population of 1.3 billion people -- and that 92 percent of men questioned believed that a woman should be married before the age of 27.

Since then, books and films on the subject have flourished and women's magazines have sought to decipher why so many are single.

"On one hand young people today work very hard and have few places to meet outside of their work, which wasn't the case earlier," Wu Di, a sociologist who has just published a book on the subject, told AFP.

"On the other hand, traditionally the Chinese say one should 'make do' when marrying. Marriage has never been synonymous with happiness.

"The new generation of women don't want to 'make do'. Many live quite well alone and don't see the point in lowering their standard or life in order to marry."

Still, the pressure on women is huge.

Part of this is due to China's one-child population control policy, which adds to the desperation of parents for their only offspring to marry and produce a grandson or granddaughter.

"The real reason for coming to this club is that I don't want to disappoint my parents. I want to make them happy," admitted Xu.

The Garden of Joy's own slogan plays on this emotion in order to attract members. "Are you single? Think about the feelings of your father/mother. Don't cause them more worry," read a sign on the entrance.

And business is booming.

The club, which opened in 2003, has two premises in Beijing and more than 12,000 members.

But, after using fear to lure the women in, the Garden of Joy offers a friendly atmosphere in the basement of a high-end business centre where women can meet prospective husbands with more than 80 different activities.

These include table tennis, billiards, board games, movies and speed dating, or outdoor ventures such as organised hiking trips.

There are also small booths where couples can sit down in a more private setting to get to know each other.

Shelly, 34, a highly educated public relations consultant who had just returned from living in the United States, was among the new members.

Since her return to China, she had avoided her relatives and even some of her close friends because of their insistence in trying to arrange dates for her.

"I'm under pressure from all sides. I feel my mother is disappointed and sad when she sees the grandchildren of her friends," she said.

But with no potential partner on the horizon, Shelly is preparing to return to the United States to do a second Masters degree -- a decision partly motivated by her desire to escape her colleagues, parents and friends.

"I think I will return to China when I am 40. I want right now to be so old, so broken that they will leave me in peace," she said.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Actually, the 'too many men' is relativelt small and its impact is nothing even remotely like that of te change in wealth in China. Simply put, Chinese women can afford to stay single.  Chinese women are, themselves, just imitating their Japanese sisters who, for the same reason, started doing this - staying single to work - 15 or so year ago. The next step for Chinese women is to go the 'cougar' route.

Chinese men, apparently, are flocking to e.g. Malaysia and Philippines looking for wives.

Further, the 'too many men' bubble disappeard because Chinese families realized that now girls are just as 'valuable' as boys.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Based on China's claim shown on this map ....

.... it appears to be beefing up its presence (military and otherwise) on one of the islands - this from a Chinese media outlet ....

Maritime management has begun in the newly established city of Sansha in the South China Sea, as local Chinese authorities hope to enhance maritime safety there and protect the environment.

The State Council, or China's cabinet, approved the establishment of Sansha, a prefectural-level city in south China's Hainan province, to administer the Xisha, Zhongsha and Nansha islands and their surrounding waters in the South China Sea on June 21.

"We began maritime management there soon after the State Council's decision was made," a spokesman with the Hainan Maritime Safety Administration said Thursday.

Maritime personnel are working to build infrastructure, buoy tenders, supply bases, light stations and radio stations in order to enhance maritime supervision and rescue capabilities, the spokesman said.

Maritime authorities are also studying sea travel routes in the area and considering introducing new laws to regulate traffic, as Sansha will develop its own tourism industry in the future and receive more ships, he said.

.... and this from media from one of the neighbours....

Despite Vietnamese protests, Chinese citizens Saturday began voting for the legislature in Sansha, a prefectural level city that will administer Vietnam’s Truong Sa (Spratly) and Hoang Sa (Paracel) archipelagos.

China National Radio reported that more than 1,100 people cast their ballots at 15 voting booths in Hoang Sa and Truong Sa archipelagoes and Trung Sa (Macclesfield Bank) for delegates to the 1st people’s congress of so-called Sansha City.

The congress will have 60 members who will serve five-year terms.

The State Council, China’s cabinet, approved in June the establishment of a city to administer the Truong Sa, Hoang Sa, and Trung Sa and their surrounding waters.

This was opposed by authorities in Vietnam’s Khanh Hoa Province and Da Nang city since Truong Sa and Hoang Sa belong to them.

Vietnam News Agency quoted Da Nang and Khanh Hoa leaders as saying that China has “seriously violated Vietnam’s sovereignty” and that the city has “no legal legitimacy.” ....

.... and what the mainstream media (at least one wire service) sees/writes about:

Beijing will establish a military garrison on a group of disputed islands in the South China Sea, China's defence ministry said Monday, a move likely to provoke further tensions with its neighbours.

The troops will operate from Sansha in the Paracel Islands, one of two archipelagos in the South China Sea that are claimed by both China and Vietnam.

The garrison, approved by the Central Military Commission, "will be responsible for the Sansha area national defence mobilisation and reserve forces activities", the defence ministry said on its website.

The ministry did not say when the garrison would be established, but the move to station troops on the Paracels is likely to provoke Hanoi's ire.

Beijing's move last month to designate Sansha as its administrative centre for the Paracels and the Spratly Islands prompted a rare demonstration Sunday in the Vietnamese capital against China's territorial assertions.

China and South Vietnam once administered different parts of the Paracels but after a brief conflict in 1974 Beijing took control of the entire group of islands. Vietnam holds several of the larger Spratly Islands.

China says it owns much of the South China Sea, while the Philippines, Taiwan, Brunei and Malaysia each claim portions ....