McG
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While potentially a poor strategic decision, it is a probable type of task the Canadian government & public will call on us to perform. As an instrument of the national will, we should be basing our force structure planning on achieving those tasks for which the nation is likely to call on us. If the Sudan is a bad fit for our current force structure but also the type of mission that Canada is likely to ask of its military, then we absolutely have to address this ... but maybe we are getting broader than the scope of this thread. For now, I will simply state that I think the Sudan is a suitable model environment against which to assess CAS and AD force design (and any force structure should be assessed against several models of potential operating environments).Infanteer said:3. MCG mentioned Sudan, but should we really be basing our force structure planning off of preparing for abjectly poor strategic decisions? Canada deciding to unilaterally sort out the Sudan, or pretty much in any real contested idea, is – at this point in time - poor, any way you cut it.
China, North Korea, Iran, etc ... I think these countries constitute the "most dangerous" scenarios, and it is safe to say we probably will not pick a fight with any such nation our own. When using the most dangerous model to assess our force structure it should be done with our forces in a coalition context. While our allies might to the heavy hitting to establish air supremacy, we still need to be capable of participating (on the ground & in the air) during these opening stages. At the same time, we might want to consider the possibility that the US is not present & the heavy lifters are European nations.Infanteer said:1. Interesting debate on threat assessments, and one that must go with any argument to by any piece of hardware. What's the threat? People have a good bogeyman in China, but guys like Thomas Barnett make good cases against that scenario. White Paper material.
2. What can be assumed? Some hard assumptions have to be made - we simply don't have the resources to cover all eventualities (or tailor forces for every niche conflict). Will we always have air superiority? My initial thought is that we can count on air dominance, or at least air superiority, for the next decade or so - we don't really go anywhere without the US. Can we afford to plan against a relatively thin enemy air defence in the near and mid-term future? Some have made relatively convincing arguments that we can. Again, White Paper material.
... and again this might be straying from the topic.
For this thread, the conclusion from my responses above is that we still must plan to be in a fight where there is an organized, sophisticated, and competent enemy Air & AD threat. We cannot assume the threat away.
+1Infanteer said:5. This mention of a COIN fighter is silly - I'm unsure of how it has come to dominate this thread. Dropping bombs and strafing does not constitute "COIN" anymore than a rifleman using a rifle means he is a "COIN Policeman" vice soldier - why should we define a fighter by an operational construct? This thread is on the verge of creating a false dichotomy of HIC/LIC airpower – that if something is good at dropping bombs on bad guys it is a “COIN fighter”. How about just a “warfighter” airplane – something that drops bombs on bad guys regardless of what sort of uniform they put on.
We (the Canadian military) cannot afford an aircraft which is only suited to a particular "level of intensity" or specific slice in the spectrum of conflict. There are plenty of generic terms that can be used without pigeon holing an aircraft into a particular intensity of conflict. Consider: attack fighter, ground-attack fighter, fighter-bomber, tactical fighter, tactical bomber, close support bomber, strike fighter, light strike aircraft, gunship, etc. I'm not sure which of these terms is the best fit, and it really should not matter until we've figured out what the capability requirement is. We should always define the capability requirement and then identify the equipment to best fit. Otherwise, we end-up with a solution (COIN fighter, FOB CAS, LASSO, Typhoon Gunship, etc) that is looking for its problem.
The same argument could be made of LAVs. It is possible to plan for this and procure reserve war fleets & battle replacement stock. This may be an unpleasant cost upfront, but it avoids the industrial back-log when the equipment is urgently needed in conflict.Infanteer said:7. The other is cost - I once read an interesting article somewhere that measured the cost and time to produce a modern fighter and how if two guys went at it with similar machines that attrition would soon render all super high-tech models obsolete as there is no way they could replaced in good order. Do an experiment and picture what would happen if we got in a fight with country "X" and 23 CF-18s were shot down in the first week or two of conflict? How the hell would we replace those? How long does it take a factory to spit out an F-22 or an F-35 to replace it? Interesting thought experiment anyways, and something the "low tech" crowd may be right in bringing up?
Another big price tag is the pilot. Freshly trained each is already a seven digit financial investment, and has taken longer to train than is required to manufacture a fighter in production run.
I think we've already seen that any manned fixed-wing aircraft (even if we use 1945 vintage Warthogs) will increase foot print, tie-up more ground combat power, steal resources from more capable multi-role aircraft and not provide any increase in capability. http://forums.army.ca/forums/threads/40352/post-774643.html#msg774643Infanteer said:4. That being said, I think the F-35 is (for all the right reasons) a given. It can cover off enough vital roles to hit those baseline Air Force requirements (patrol Canadian skies, contribute to allied ops, drop a bomb on something, intercept something) that we can’t avoid getting it. This thread shouldn’t be an either/or argument, but rather on how to effectively augment the capabilities of this airframe that we will undoubtedly acquire in limited numbers.
6. I think the crux of what some on this thread were aiming at was an airframe that dealt with two major issues with deploying airpower; the footprint it requires to operate it (airstrips, control towers, etc, etc) and the maintain it (mechanics, vehicles, etc, etc). This makes employment of the vehicle more likely as it is easier to deploy and sustain on operations. The “low-tech” solution was put forward, and was intriguing, as a solution to meet these demands; however others may be more feasible/palatable – such as armed mini-UAVs launched from LAVs or something. Either way, I think the discussion of “Green Airpower” should focus on footprint vice capability to put lead on a target (as most airframes can do so, especially with a good JTAC).
If there is an exception to this statement, then it would be an expensive modern A-10 type platform. Otherwise, we are looking at expensive helicopter or tilt-rotor platforms (and even here there are large resource trade-offs & footprint issues to be addressed).
I still believe that if the F-18 (and its eventual replacement) requires another platform to compliment it in CAS, then that platform is likely a UAV or a family of UAV.