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Drawdown in Astan Has Begun

tomahawk6

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Country building fails again. Its not the fault of the warfighter but that of the politicians. Once bin laden was killed we satisfied the objective of payback for 9-11. Meanwhile Al Qaeda has the protection of Iran. A chapter closes a new is to be written.



 

Halifax Tar

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Not gonna lie, it sucks to know that 'our' war, in the end, is another Vietnam...
Makes you wonder if we're (the west) incapable of winning a war anymore from a political and social standpoint.

I mean unless we can steam roll a lesser nation we get terribly lost on the weeds.
 

SeaKingTacco

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Not gonna lie, it sucks to know that 'our' war, in the end, is another Vietnam...
Yeah, but look at it this way: in a weird way, the US did win the Vietnam War. No other southeast asian countries fell to communism.

Maybe it is the same with Afghanistan: radical Islam seems to be a spent force.
 

brihard

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Yeah, but look at it this way: in a weird way, the US did win the Vietnam War. No other southeast asian countries fell to communism.

Maybe it is the same with Afghanistan: radical Islam seems to be a spent force.

Not sure we can make that claim... We haven't had another 9/11, but I've seen nothing to suggest radical Islam is done. They got focused on their own state building experiment for a while, which of course went horribly, but I don't think there's been any real decrease in radical Islamist belief or activity. We just don't see it as much over here.
 

tomahawk6

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vietnam is now our friend bc of China.Maybe the same may occur in time.
 

FJAG

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Yeah, but look at it this way: in a weird way, the US did win the Vietnam War. No other southeast asian countries fell to communism.

Maybe it is the same with Afghanistan: radical Islam seems to be a spent force.

I can see your point on the former. The "Domino Theory" was the big issue with Vietnam and AFAIK no other domino tumbled.

I think the jury is still out on Islam. Radical religions are hard to eradicate.

🍻
 

Oldgateboatdriver

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I can see your point on the former. The "Domino Theory" was the big issue with Vietnam and AFAIK no other domino tumbled.

I think the jury is still out on Islam. religions are hard to eradicate.

🍻

FTFY. All religions are radical. It's the actual followers that don't "really" believe all the stuff being spouted off that are mainstream and "tame down" their own religion, with the few that actually do believe it who are called "radicals". Radical Islam is not radical. What they claim as truth is written black on white in the Quran an fully endorsed by Islamic theologian. What born again Christians believe and act under is written black on white in the Bible and fully endorsed by their theologian. Same goes for fundamental jewish sects and the Talmud.

As a certain American polemists/pamphletist once said "When people kill in the name of god, the name of the problem is God".
 

FJAG

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FTFY. All religions are radical. It's the actual followers that don't "really" believe all the stuff being spouted off that are mainstream and "tame down" their own religion, with the few that actually do believe it who are called "radicals". Radical Islam is not radical. What they claim as truth is written black on white in the Quran an fully endorsed by Islamic theologian. What born again Christians believe and act under is written black on white in the Bible and fully endorsed by their theologian. Same goes for fundamental jewish sects and the Talmud.

As a certain American polemists/pamphletist once said "When people kill in the name of god, the name of the problem is God".
Well, I've put my view on that out there before so you won't be surprised when I say I find it hard to disagree with what you've said.
I personally have no problem with other folks who do have a belief system that encompasses some spiritual supernatural being as long as they keep it to themselves and don't harm others in any way, shape, or form. I even take exception with "tame" ones who proselytize. Believe what you want just don't look down on those who don't believe in what you do.

🍻
 

Blackadder1916

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I can see your point on the former. The "Domino Theory" was the big issue with Vietnam and AFAIK no other domino tumbled.

Besides Laos and Cambodia. But that's a cheap shot as those three should all be considered under the same umbrella of former French colonialism. The Domino Theory as envisioned by the US was flawed in that it failed to consider the nature of the Indochinese insurgencies/revolutions/wars as an independence movement rather than the their view of it as the international communist conspiracy. Uncle Ho and his fellow travelers may have been communists and accepted support from the Chinese and (mainly) Soviet big brothers, but at the base their intent was independence from any foreign control. The other dominos (countries of South East Asia) were all different games with different rules and played on a different surface with no contact to a falling Vietnam domino.
 

tomahawk6

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I think that we made mistakes in Cambodia and Laos. Prince Sihanouk kept the reds at bay until we invaded. As a family we spent 2 years in Cambodia while dad was assigned to the MAAG [military assistance advisory group] .The official language was French so my dad went to school for that and we had to learn it in school.
 

tomahawk6

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This could play out similar to the Russian experience. I hope not. Self preservation might be a strong motivator.
 

RangerRay

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Yeah, but look at it this way: in a weird way, the US did win the Vietnam War. No other southeast asian countries fell to communism.

Maybe it is the same with Afghanistan: radical Islam seems to be a spent force.

I am genuinely curious. I have heard that “The Domino Theory” was BS. Yet South Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos fell to the communists. Was it BS because Thailand and Burma didn’t fall too? Or am I missing something? Thanks!
 

CBH99

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The fact that “major Taliban offensive” is even a story is quite troubling, and not indicative of success.
It's proven itself to be an ideology and movement that can't be defeated with bullets and bombs, thats for sure. Over the last 20yrs, how many tens of thousands of Taliban fighters have we killed? Buildings we've destroyed that were being used to house fighters, manufacture IED's, etc, etc.

We've killed tens of thousands of them. At least. And the situation hasn't changed much, in the end... their ideology is there to stay for the foreseeable future, and their organization will always replenish itself because of that.

Do I believe the Russians were putting bounties for every American soldier killed? No, I don't. Why pay the Taliban money for something they are already happily doing for free whenever they get the chance? I hadn't seen ANY intelligence of ANY kind to support that, minus whatever the mainstream media had 'leaked' to it....which I'm guessing was nothing.

However, I DO believe that China COULD have covertly involved itself in the last few years, or will do so in the near future. (Perhaps in form of providing weapons and those kinds of capabilities, perhaps just in the form of money, or perhaps with enabling kit such as night vision goggles, etc. (There have been numerous reports of Taliban patrols who were found in possession of night-vision devices and fairly new AK's, and that goes back a decade or so.) There are WWWAAAYYYYY too many Rare Earth Metals, and huge oil reserves, for the world to not still keep Afghanistan in mind. China has the benefit of geography (not having to transport all of their troops and kit across the globe, and keep them supplied) - as well as manpower. As well as the financial & foreign policy resources to make friends with the Taliban.




I think a 'major Taliban offensive' was inevitable whenever the west decided to pull the plug on any conventional forces. The only thing preventing that from happening would have been an official peace agreement, or some sort of power sharing agreement with the government.

I imagine it will remain a CIA & SOF operation for quite some time to come. Some folks far more intellectual than I have made very compelling arguments that it should have perhaps been approached that way in the first place.


I've always thought of this challenge as analog to an ant hill. You can step on every ant that walks far enough away from the ant hill -- ants won't stop coming out of the hill. The ants are the radical extremists - humans - and they can be picked off easily enough. The anthill is their ideology, and we have no idea how to really eliminate that. Especially in modern times with the internet, videos, etc etc.

I agree with your sentiment Brihard. The fact that the Taliban was able to launch such a 'major offensive' isn't comforting after the continuous efforts made over the last 20 years. But, as much as it sucks, I do think it was inevitable without some sort of agreements in place first.
 

brihard

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I am genuinely curious. I have heard that “The Domino Theory” was BS. Yet South Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos fell to the communists. Was it BS because Thailand and Burma didn’t fall too? Or am I missing something? Thanks!
I think the appeal is in nobody enjoying having to swallow the reality of a costly loss. Anything that can soften that has a certain attraction.
 

MilEME09

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Makes you wonder if we're (the west) incapable of winning a war anymore from a political and social standpoint.

I mean unless we can steam roll a lesser nation we get terribly lost on the weeds.
Politics is involved more and more in day to day choices in war. If you want to win a war, take the gloves off if NATO operated as one central command structure, no checking with each capital what their troops can and can't do we would have had greater flexibility.
 

QV

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Can’t win a war when only one side is playing by the marcus of queensbury rules and only half in. Should have been evident in the first decade.
 

CBH99

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This could play out similar to the Russian experience. I hope not. Self preservation might be a strong motivator.
If international monetary principles still mattered, they may have found themselves in a similar pickle - minus a rival superpower meddling in.
 
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